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By D Kentwell

This extended abstract and associated presentation provide a series of real examples of the complex interactions between the numerous input parameters, both geological and mathematical, that are required for resource estimation. Many of these parameters can contain a large degree of uncertainty at the initial resource stage. The resource tonnages and grades at economic cut offs of some types of deposits are relatively robust to these initial uncertainties while others exhibit significant sensitivity. In some cases, changes in parameters can result in counter-intuitive outcomes. Grades and confidence levels are inseparable; as the parameters change the confidence changes and so does the grade estimate. The extended abstract and associated presentation also discuss the question of whether or not a single solution is still an acceptable outcome for an estimate or if even a set of simulations based on a single fixed set of parameters is acceptable.CITATION: Kentwell, D, 2018. Sensitive dependence on initial conditions in resource estimation, in Proceedings Complex Orebodies Conference 2018, pp 28–30 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Nov 21, 2018

Improve the safety of mine workers by developing a sensitive ground-fault relay system capable of detecting and isolating low level ground faults and thereby minimize the danger of electrocution. Approach Inadvertent, direct contact with energized conductors in underground coal mines is a major cause of electrocutions. Although relay systems designed to protect workers against such fatal accidents do exist in some industries, there are no effective ground-fault-sensing relay systems that address the special problems presented by power systems designed for U.S. mines. The Bureau of Mines conducted research to design and construct a sensitive ground-fault relay for use with low-voltage, alternating current (ac) mine electrical systems. Such a relay, sensing current leakage or faults in an electrical system, would send a trip signal to a circuit interrupting device which would then shut down power.

Jan 1, 1986

By Clarence O. Babcock

A simple robust rock bolt load gage was tested in the laboratory to define its characteristic behavior and to obtain a measure of its performance. The gage uses three vibrating wire sensors crimped 120 (2.09 rad) apart into the outer surface of a hollow cylindrical steel, tube. The resonant frequencies of the wires change as the gage is loaded. This change is read with a Creare meter developed for the Bureau of Mines on a previous contract to read borehole stress gage results. A statistical analysis of data obtained defines the variables influencing results. A U.S. patent (3,914,992) assigned by the author to the Dept. of the Interior was granted Oct. 28, 1975.

Jan 1, 1978

By Tetsuo Yamazaki

The Kuroko-type seafloor massive sulfides (SMS) in the western Pacific have received much attention as sources for economic recovery of gold (Au), silver (Ag), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), and lead (Pb). Since the end of the 1980s, the Kuroko-type SMS have been found in the back-arc basins and on oceanic island-arc areas. In Okinawa Trough (Halbach et al., 1989) and on the Izu-Ogasawara Arc (Iizasa et al., 1999) are the typical representatives in the Japan’s EEZ. They yield a higher concentration in Au and Ag than the SMS found in ocean ridge areas (Rona, 1985). Similar formation processes with the Kuroko ore deposits on-land in Japan have been expected and outlined by many researchers (Sillitoe, 1982; Scott, 1985). The higher Au and Ag contents have increased the chances for profitable mining operation, which is under consideration by a private company (Malnic, 2001). Information about the resource potential of the targeted Kuroko-type SMS deposit, such as the amount of SMS ore body, the inside structure, the mean metal yields, and the geographical details are necessary for a technical and economic validation analysis for the development. The Sunrise Deposit of Myojin Knoll on Izu-Ogasawara Arc in the Japan’s EEZ is selected as a target for the technical and economic validation analysis. The relatively higher amount of information on its resource potential is the reason why the deposit is selected.

Sep 24, 2006

Traditionally, the development of a mineral resource project goes through a fairly set pattern of decisions from what commodities to search for; where to look; how to locate; what are the reserves; how can they be exploited with optimum returns for all stakeholders; where are the markets and what will be the price received; what financing arrangments? However, due to the unique nature of most mineral resource properties, the relative significance of individual parameters on the ultimate development decision will vary from project to project. Sensitivity analysis in its formal sense is most frequently related to the economic analysis of a project particularly in conjunction with the ultimate development decision making process, and acknowledges the uncertainty of the actual values with their impact on the corporate decision making yardsticks. In many cases, this analysis merely adds more values to confuse the decision makers who may well opt for some subjective rationale to overcome the numeric confusion. However, sensitivity analysis should be used more frequently to exploit the development dollar to its maximum, THROUGHOUT the phases leading to the development decision. It is essential to identify the critical inputs to the various decision tiers in a project as early as possible and direct the funds to ensure that these parameters are determined as accurately as possible. Examples are used to illustrate the need for an even-handed quantification of the parameters which affect the outcome of decisions en route to the final one while minimising the risk in making an optimum assessment in relation to development funds Available.

Jan 1, 1983

By John C. Robison

INTRODUCTION Sensitivity analysis is a means of gauging the impact of individual risks on a financing. Key risks can occur in three time periods: - Feasibility, engineering and construction phase; - Start up phase (usually through completion); - Operating phase (post completion). If a company has agreed to cover these risks prior to completion, then less attention will be paid to the sensitivity of the project in the first two time periods. Since the operating phase of the project generates cash for both operations and debt service and generally does not begin until two to six years after the loan is signed, it is wise to look at scenarios other than the projected "base-case" scenario in order to determine the project's capability to operate successfully under a broad range of probable future events. Lenders are compensated at a fixed spread over their borrowing base and generally are not compensated if the project is successful beyond expectation. They are also subject to the loss of principal plus funding costs if the project performs below expectation. Because of this, lenders establish sensitivities around the parameters of conservative projections developed in the project feasibility studies and the cash flows resulting from these projections. The initial cash flow projections should demonstrate the project's ability to meet cash costs, debt service requirements (principal and interest), and still have sufficient cushion to cover contingencies such as strikes, price fluctuations, force majeur situations, etc. (See Schreiber, Chapter 10). The selection of the level of sensitivity analysis to be performed is the result of both objective criteria, including probabilistic analysis applied to the technical parameters, and, of equal importance, subjective criteria applied by the analysts, especially with regard to the economic and financial parameters impacting the project cash flows. RISK SENSITIVITY Assumptions used in the cash flow projections should be realistic. Risks identified by the lenders should be identified and cash flows prepared to assess whether these project risks are acceptable. Typical project risks include the following (see also Chapter 9): - Sufficient reserves - quantity and quality - Product price - Production level - Operating costs - Availability of energy and supplies - Transportation and infrastructure requirements and costs - Interest rate - Completion risks - Tax level - Political risks - Cost over-run risks - Operator experience - Management - Technological risks - Environmental permits and risks - Foreign exchange risks - Insurance coverage - Equity of sponsors - Inflation rate - Capital expenditure during project life In order to see the effect on the cash flow projections, each risk should be analyzed for its impact on the cash flow generating capacity of the project. Sensitivities can be examined to see if the resultant cash flow projection will meet the lenders minimum credit standards. 1.Reserve Sensitivity In general, lenders will not assume the reserve risk. However, it should also be noted that lenders receive loan proposals in which reserves range anywhere from proven to possible. Sensitivities are not generally run for various reserve levels and reserve estimates are either considered acceptable or not acceptable by the lenders.

Jan 1, 1985

By K. Louk, E. Gilliland, N. Ripepi, M. Karmis

"Carbon dioxide (CO2) injection in deep unmineable coal seams can enhance coalbed methane (CBM) recovery as well as effectively and permanently store the CO2. Enhanced coalbed methane (ECBM) recovery and CO2 storage capacity can be improved by altering injection parameters including the injection well locations, number of injection wells, and the time and rate of the injection. A sensitivity study was performed with sixteen different injection scenarios on a coalbed methane field in Buchanan County, Virginia to understand the influence of the injection parameters on methane production, CO2 storage and the extent of the CO2 plume. History matching was done for the gas and water production period prior to injection based on field data from an active US Department of Energy funded pilot project. INTRODUCTION The coal structure is a combination of the coal matrix and cleats. In a CBM reservoir, the methane (CH4) is stored in the matrix under adsorption properties, not as a free gas. During CH4 production, the reservoir pressure is reduced and gas is released from the surface of the coal, diffuses through the matrix and transmits to fractures (man-made or natural) via the cleat network. Fractures and cleats are the major parameters that influence gas flow capacity because deliverability of the CH4 to the production well is controlled by the cleat permeability. As gas production continues over time, CH4 desorbs from coal, and coal matrix volume starts to decrease. This volume decrease in the matrix opens up the cleats, matrix shrinkage, which leads to a permeability increase. Several emprical (Harpalani and Schraufnagel 1990a, 1990b; Harpalani and Chen 1995, 1997; Harpalani and Mitra 2010; Pan et al. 2010; Liu et al. 2012; Mitra et al. 2012) and analytical (Palmer 2009; Liu and Harpalani 2013) studies have reported this relationship between pressure and permeability. Those studies showed that permeability is an important parameter in CH4 production performance. Furthermore, during gas production, water is produced through the cleat system as well, therefore gas-water relative permeability must be also considered in evaluating production performance (Gash et al., 1991). In the CO2 injection scenario the opposite occurs because CO2 has a higher adsorption affinity than CH4. CO2 replaces CH4 in the matrix of the coal and increases the volume of the coal matrix, matrix swelling, and results in a permeability decrease. Harpalani and Mitra (2010) concluded in their experimental study that swelling of the coal matrix due to the CO2 injection is two to three times more than the sorption of CH4, resulting in large permeability changes during CO2 injection."

Jan 1, 2016

By Kai Nielsen

A model has been developed for sensitivity analysis of open pit bench blasting. The model simulates the cost effectiveness of various blasting designs in relation to the equipment used for drilling, loading, hauling and primary crushing. The simulations will give an indication of the optimum powder factor giving the lowest over-all costs for drilling, blasting, handling and crushing.

Jan 1, 1985

By Wen L. Cai

This paper examines the effects of different block dimensions and cone bases on the economic open pit limit design based on case studies on a coal deposit consisted of two west- east elongated, near vertical thin seams starting with a base model dimension of 200x170x50 (NX*NY*NZ) with a block dimension of 10mx5mx4m (DX*DY*DZ), the blocks were combined along easting, northing and elevation directions. Two cone bases were used, one with a base radius of 10 meters, the other with a base radius of 0. Two pit design algorithms, one is the floating cone algorithm, the other is an optimum algorithm, were used to see which one of the two pit design algorithms is more sensitive to block dimension and cone base variations. The results are presented and analyzed.

Jan 1, 1992

By B. E. Ydstie, B. F. Lund, K. R. Løvåsen, B. A. Foss

The paper presents sensitivity analysis for a dynamic model of submerged arc silicon furnaces. The model we study, called ?Simod?, was developed by Elkem in cooperation with NTNU and Sintef. It is today a much used tool in Elkem for operator training and analysis of the dynamic behaviour of the silicon production process. The aim of our work is to bring the simulator tool closer to industrial practice, and construct a mechanism to adapt the model to the behaviour of a running process, online. The paper presents the results of the sensitivity analysis that has been undertaken for important parameters in the Simod model. The parameters associated with the process inputs are electric power loss, loss of fixed C and reactivity of carbon. The output signals that have been investigated are fed quartz, tapped silicon and silica. The paper also interprets the results of the sensitivity analysis in a process operation context.

Jan 1, 2004

By Ramkrishna Agarwal

The problem of the measurement of in situ stresses in rock masses has, in recent years, become one of the prime concerns of investigators and researchers in the field of rock mechanics. Numerous instruments have been developed for that purpose and various techniques have been used to determine the absolute values of these stresses at a point.l The "stress-relief" technique has gained the widest acceptance. In its usual application it relies on one of the two following principles: (1) Measurements of the changes in a "solid inclusion" in a borehole,2 or (2) Measurements of the diametral deformation of a borehole with a free boundary." The theoretical development, in the case of the latter, is based upon an evaluation of the deformation of a circular hole in an infinite plate under the action of a uniaxial stress field. Expressions for the deformations may be obtained by using either the plain strain or the generalized plane stress theoretical approach of the classical theory of Elasticity, which assumes that the material is linearly elastic, homogeneous and isotropic. The solution for the case of a biaxial stress field is obtained by the Principal of Superposition. The circular hole becomes elliptical after deformation takes place under the action of a uniaxial or biaxial stress field applied to the plate. In the practical application of the technique, the reverse procedure is applied. A borehole is drilled in the rock and a deformation-measuring

Jan 1, 1968

By Joseph M. Chelini

The report shows the sensitivity that nine different cash-flow factors have on the discounted rate of return calculated from feasibiliity- studies on potenital open-pit orebodies of silver, copper, and uranium. Cash-flow factors of "grade", "market value", and "recovery" are. the most sensitive. This verifies the need of reliable estimates for these factors. The cost of evaluation of "preproduction cost" is the least sensitive. This gives credence to the fact that more consideration should be given to compiling sufficient data, as the largest financial losses are not in the cost of evaluation but rather in the abandonment of an unprofitable mining operation after a commitment of capital is made on the basis of an incomplete evaluation. Sensitivity analysis of cash-flow factors enhances evaluation programs by disciplining the collection of data and allowing more realistic distribution of evaluation monies.

Jan 1, 1971

By Joseph M. Chelini

A cash-flow factor is any figure acquired in an evaluation that effects the cash flow potential of an eventual operation. Table I is a list of some of these cash-flow factors. There are more, such as, the payments and penalties in a smelter schedule if the concentrate would be sent to a smelter. During an evaluation it is necessary to maintain a two-way flow of communication between the evaluation people and financing people. To accomplish this, it is necessary to translate the vocabulary of the evaluating people into the vocabulary of the financing people, or geologic and engineering jargon into dollars and cents. This is done by cash-flow studies in which cash-flow factors are input, which when logically manipulated using accepted rules and procedures of accounting, provide an output in dollars and cents.

Jan 5, 1972

By C. R. Bennett

A copper heap leach model, employing leading edge computational fluid dynamics (CFD) technology, is applied to the Zaldivar heap leach operation in Chile in order to explore and analyze the possible impact of operational changes. The effect of changes to the heap operation on copper recovery has been previously investigated and reported by the Zaldivar operation. This paper examines the extent to which a comprehensive heap leach model supports the analysis and conclusions of the published work. The heap is a complex multi-phase process, consisting of a solid static porous media with complex fluid flow, gas and liquid phases, competing solid-liquid reactions, dissolution of minerals and transport through the heap. The model accounts for the physical and chemical features of the heap, including transport and reactions kinetics for the important copper and iron sulfide minerals, ferrous oxidation, bacterial effects, thermal energy, acid and sulfate balances. The model was calibrated to published data on the ore body and employed to analyze the impact of a number of operational changes, including solution flow rate, acidity, lift height, crush size and head grade.

Jan 1, 2012

By M. D. Griffith

"Ventilation models are a vital tool to ensure ventilation designs can provide airflow to all work areas in a mine. Airway resistance and variations in natural ventilation pressures will affect simulated airflow and heat distribution through a mine. Validating ventilation model resistances and pressures to the exact underground conditions can be difficult and the variances can contribute to significantly different simulation results depending on the structure of the ventilation design. The study will use sensitivity analysis to explore examples of variability of simulated airflow due to small resistance, heat and natural ventilation changes and thereby help the user identify both trustworthy and potentially unreliable parts of a mine ventilation model. INTRODUCTION Mine ventilation network modeling is a vital tool for ventilation professionals and has become increasingly relied upon during the design and operation phase of mine ventilation systems. However, they provide only an approximation of reality, and caution must always be exercised when drawing conclusions or making decisions based on simulated data. Ventilation modelling should be performed by persons with a sound fundamental knowledge of ventilation and ideally should be validated with field data, but in large mines, or mines which are yet to be mined, accurate input of the simulation variables can be difficult, and errors and inaccuracies may be difficult or impossible to avoid. This study discusses and investigates the sensitivity of the mine ventilation simulation results to input errors. In addition, there are limitations to what steady-state airflow and heat simulations can model, regardless of the accuracy of the model inputs. In some situations, steady-state solvers cannot capture the dynamic changing behavior of a ventilation system. This study will also describe and apply techniques to analyze the natural variability of mine conditions on ventilation models. The consequences of poor accuracy in some parts of a mine model may impact on the health and safety criteria of ventilation designs. For example, if an airway is required to flow in a particular direction and quantity, then despite a ventilation model showing correctly designed conditions, small errors in input values may result in incorrect prediction of the direction or quantity of airflow. This may create unexpected buildup of heat or gases during operational activities, causing safety issues or operational delays. The ability to know which parts of a mine ventilation model have increased potential for poor simulation results will allow engineers to consider the ventilation design and make changes if required to better guarantee the required design flows."

Jan 1, 2019

By G. Danko

Ventilation and refrigeration for mine climate modification, contributes significantly to the operating costs of a deep hot mine. Mine climate simulation programs can be used to minimize the impact of these costs. There are several computer codes available including CLIMSIM?, to assist in this work. Whichever simulation program is used, it is the mine ventilation engineer who must supply the input data. This paper raises and answers the following question, namely: what accuracy is required of the basic input parameters, in order for a certain precision to be obtained in the predicted air temperatures? In the first part of the paper a new approach is described to estimate the dry and wet bulb temperature of the airflow, either in a dry or wet roadway. The calculation procedure allows an arbitrary temperature change with time, using Duhamel's superposition solution. Matrix-vector representation is applied to simplify the computational structure. In the second part of the paper the sensitivities of the dry and wet bulb air temperatures are analyzed to the changes of the rock thermo-physical properties, the heat transfer coefficient and the wetness factor.

Jan 1, 1988

By N McIntyre, J Smart, J Ossa-Moreno, D Rivera

Hydro-economics is a field of research that analyses water resources from a multi-disciplinary approach (Harou et al., 2009). These models generally include one component that describes the water resources of the catchment being analysed (e.g. the physical behaviour of water), an economic component that describes users’ water demand function (changes of willingness to pay relative to availability) and a coupling methodology. These models go beyond calculating cash flows for water investments and analyse the economic behaviour of users when facing water shortages or surplus. In other words, water demand curves are defined for each water user (e.g. urban, agriculture, mining, environmental and hydropower), and they are used to retrofit the water resources component. As a result, the model approximates the catchment scale response to droughts and wet periods, including the effects of water markets, restrictions, recycling, water sharing and any cooperative efforts by users to adjust to changing climate conditions.These models are usually focused on agriculture and urban users, the main water consumers in most catchments, but they have sometimes included environmental, industrial and hydropower users (Bekchanov, Sood, & Jeuland, 2015). Nevertheless, although a relevant user of water in several catchments, the mining industry has been rarely included. This paper is part of an ongoing project that addresses this gap by developing a hydro-economic model in the upper section of the Aconcagua River in Chile. The aim of the paper is to analyse the sensitivity of the outputs of the model to changes in input data, both hydrological and economic, and to develop insight on usefulness of such models for reducing water conflicts in mining regions.CITATION:Ossa-Moreno, J, McIntyre, N, Smart, J and Rivera, D, 2018. Sensitivity of a hydro-economic model in a mining region to changes in hydrological and economic inputs, in Proceedings Life-of-Mine 2018, pp 52–55 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Jul 25, 2018

By Jefferson CB

Adaptive optimisation is the adjustment of operating conditions to maintain optimum process performance as the feed quality varies. This strategy has the potential to be economic- ally better than the maintenance of a constant optimum performance with a blended feed. Application of the strategy is hindered by practical difficulties and economic risks. A computer simulation of leaching processes has been used to identify ore-process systems which have the greatest potential benefits from adaptive optimisation. They are systems with low value feed materials and a broad distribution of reactivities, in pro- cesses which are sensitive to the operating variable that is being manipulated (e.g. residence time). Improvements of up to 13% in throughput and 5% in the economic operating margin can be achieved. The results are sen- sitive to the precise model which is used for the process kinetics. It seems that the kinetics of the last few per cent to react are particularly relevant. A realistic situation has been identified where a synergistic inter- action occurs in blended feeds which makes adaptive optimisation disadvantageous.

Jan 1, 1984

By Kolarczyk M

When controlling the ventilation process in a deep mine some knowledge of the sensitivity of the air volume output to changes in the resistances of network side branches is of great advantage.Sensitivity is taken to mean the limit of the differential quotient AV /ART where AV. is the change in air output in the i--h side branch caused by a change of resistance LI R in the r-th side branch. A method Is presen- ted for determining any arbitrary co- lumn of the sensitivity matrix. A network interpretation of this met- hod was developed in which an ancilla- ry network additional the basic network is constructed and solved, giving an analysis of the sensitivity signs de- pending on the structure of the network.

Jan 1, 1988

By G. Djambazov, D. Shevchenko, D. Burnard, V. Bojarevics, K. A. Pericleous, W. Griffiths

Contactless ultrasound treatment can be useful for high-temperature or reactive alloys in the liquid state, where contact with an immersed vibrating probe is undesirable. The alternating component of the Lorentz force can generate sound pressure levels leading to cavitation of gas bubbles in the melt, through acoustic resonance. Resonance is a function of the speed of sound in the liquid, the shape of the volume containing it and surrounding boundary conditions. Induction forces applied to a crucible lead to bulk stirring and in general deform the free surface, whose precise shape may influence the resonance conditions. This effect is investigated here b ymulti-physics computer modelling. Calculated results for aluminium melts are compared with experimental data and conclusions are drawn as to the sensitivity to process parameters and the reliability of this type of ultrasound metal processing.

Mar 1, 2017