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By Steve Kral

The list of environmental issues facing industry in general, and the mining industry in particular, has placed greater emphasis on the concept of risk assessment and risk management. In informal terms, risk can be defined as the chance of injury, loss or damage. More formally, it is defined as the probability of an occurrence and its consequences. In simple terms, risk assessment involves three questions: What can go wrong? How probable is it to go wrong? If it goes wrong, what are the consequences? Experts on the subject of risk assess¬ment and management met in St. Louis, MO in October 1992 to discuss the extensive and innovative technology that has been developed in this arena. Each agreed that a consistent framework can be used to approach risk assessment/ management considerations in siting and design alternatives, as well as when considering financial aspects of mine development. And the environmental planning process for mines, as well as planning for operation through closures, will rely more heavily on risk assessment and management techniques. Risk assessment is a tool to assist engineers, scientists and managers make better, defensible operational decisions. A realistic and probabilistic risk analysis, coupled with a sound financial model, can combine a large set of alternatives and criteria to arrive at a defensible decision. Organizers of this regional SME conference believe that mining professionals should become fully conversant with risk assessment techniques and approaches because this arena provides opportunities to develop more rational decision-making techniques. Current health risk assessments rely heavily on Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approaches. Several speakers and papers show how this approach has been applied to a variety of topics. Two major advantages come forward when applying risk assessment techniques to environmental clean-up options for contaminated sites. They are the selection of practical options and cost-effective alternatives. A probabilistic risk assessment provides results that can be directly related to clean-up costs. It has been shown that small reductions in risk are obtained for large increases in cost after a certain threshold value is reached. A preferred, practical clean-up alternative that provides permanent solutions can be selected based on a probabilistic assessment. Here are summaries of some of the papers presented at the meeting.

Jan 1, 1993

By P. J. Foster

A common theme running through recently introduced mining health and safety legislation in many parts of the world is risk assessment. Most recently, risk assessment legislation has been introduced across the mining industry of South Africa and the view that the introduction of risk assessment based legislation provides an ideal opportunity to improve on past health and safety performance is presented. Risk assessment techniques range from highly complex safety system techniques that are used in high technology process industries, to subjective techniques based on simple judgements that are finding use in many other industries. The objective of this paper is to shed some light on risk assessment, not by detailing the risk assessment process but by identifying the crucial elements that need to be considered if risk assessments are to be successful in changing health and safety performance. A case study is presented illustrating the introduction of risk assessment into the Ingwe Coal Corporation, one of South Africa?s largest mining houses, to indicate how the system was developed and how it is being used.

Jan 1, 1998

By L. Munsamy

The bulk of primary mining at the Anglo Coal's Bank Colliery was carried out by drill and blast method, in a bord and pillar layout exploiting the No. 2 Seam. Secondary extraction, top/bottom coaling, also took place using both the drill and blast (D&B) method and continuous miners (CM). Extensive mining in this seam resulted in the risk of sterilising the No. 4 Seam reserves. Therefore, multiseam design guidelines established by Salamon and Oravecz (8) were re-evaluated in light of the low safety factors and the low pillar width to mining height ratios of pillars in the No. 2 Seam. Two and three dimensional (2D & 3D) numerical modelling was carried out to quantify and verify the parameters that influence the multiseam mining. The modelling was conducted primarily in two dimensions (plane strain), with 3D models to confirm the validity of the 2D results. A panel risk assessment flow chart was developed to assess the panels with respect to pillar failure and multiseam mining. This flow chart was extended into the evaluation of risk of surface subsidence using the current rock engineering knowledge. The aim of this risk assessment tool is to assess all underground workings at Anglo Coal collieries simply and rapidly. The identification of high-risk areas would warrant further investigation and possible backfilling to reduce the risk of pillar failures ensuring that reserves in the No. 4 and 5 Seams above are intact.

Jan 1, 2004

By L W. Palmer

"Evaluating the geological risk associated with ore deposits is becoming common practice in the mining industry. While geostatistical simulation is a useful tool for evaluating this risk, the effect of applying different types of simulation is less understood. For simulation of categorical variables like rock types, available methods perform simulation in fundamentally different ways. In this study, the geological risk relevant for informed mine planning is studied with two categorical simulation methods, PluriGaussian Simulation (PGS) and Sequential Indicator Simulation (SIS). Risk is expressed as a probability of repeated occurrence of lithological units in the same location across simulations. Significant differences are observed between the methods in terms of spatial distribution of risk. To identify the most plausible risk model, the input parameters at every step of both techniques are scrutinised. PGS and SIS inputs are classified as four parameters that are: fundamental to implementation of the methodfixed to enable comparison of PGS and SISdetermined by user interpretation, hence variablenormally optimised during application of PGS and SIS. The effect of parameter selection from categories 1 and 4 on the risk model is investigated using drill core data from a leucogranite deposit. A corresponding block model is created for assigning outputs from PGS and SIS. Risk models produced by either method are illustrated in a cut-out from the block model to enable bench-by-bench comparison. For PGS, risk associated with relatively rare lithologies is relatively sensitive to variation of parameters. Independent of the abundance of lithology, a location-dependent effect of variogram and vertical proportion curve parameter selection is observed, with risk increasing towards the deposit edge. Although SIS requires fewer inputs, single lithologies must be modelled in turn. Using small numbers of samples in the search neighbourhood, all risk models differ substantially. For larger numbers of samples, the risk models are similar. Overall it appears that the risk model produced using SIS is less sensitive to changes than PGS but further work is required to confirm this.CITATION:Palmer, L W and Glass, H J, 2014. Risk associated with rock type prediction using simulation techniques, in Proceedings Ninth International Mining Geology Conference 2014 , pp 217–228 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne)."

Aug 18, 2014

By J M. Dwyer, S Williamson

Acceptable post-closure performance of decommissioned mining operations is a critical factor in persuading todayÆs environmentally conscious public that the mining industry will not continue to burden future generations with the legacy of environmental tragedies. Post-closure impacts must be identified and managed through robust engineering design if the post-closure environment is to be environmentally sustainable. To manage potential post-closure risks (environmental, health, safety, social and economic) within acceptable limits, WMC incorporates a risk-based approach to closure planning and engineering design. WMCÆs risk-based closure engineering design process provides a simple methodology for developing robust closure plans û the process æengineers outÆ unacceptable risks and æengineers inÆ a sustainable post-closure environment. Benefits of the risk-based process include stakeholder endorsed closure criteria for an agreed post-closure land-use, focusing of resources on major risks, and a realistic and accurate estimate of the required closure provision. The outcome is an increased likelihood of satisfying the three pillar goals of sustainable development û a financially sound solution that poses a low risk to the environment and future generations.

Jan 1, 2003

By J L. Merritt

Effective minesite water management requires that this issue be treated as a risk management exercise. The management process is generally far from simple and by necessity must involve a range of personnel covering a siteÆs commercial, operational and environmental interests and responsibilities. The challenge to be collectively faced by these stakeholders is to strike the correct balance between risk and cost. On the other hand, the challenge to be faced by technical services support personnel is to provide stakeholders with information in a format that they can use with confidence. This paper presents the application of continuous operational simulation (OPSIM) modelling techniques to establish appropriate risk profiles for minesite operations. It is necessary that the format of these risk profiles be generic and equally applicable for defining the risk of occurrence for a relatively comprehensive range of activities û eg from of a non-compliant discharge, to the risk of failure to meet production targets. What is more, the profiles need to be quantitatively based and capable of reflecting change in system response to varied operational or management strategies. The techniques presented in this paper are based around a key assumption that long-term records of the climate contain within them sets of sequences that are representative of what can be expected in the future û that is, the droughts, floods, cyclones, good years and bad, long or short, and everything in between. Therefore, if these historical records are run through an OPSIM model for a particular site, then the simulated operational characteristics can be taken as being representative of what can be expected in the future, in the long-term. This lends itself to statistical analysis and translation into the required risk based format. Water Solutions Pty Ltd have been working with Capricorn Coal Management to develop a relatively comprehensive OPSIM model of their operations at German Creek Mine, Central Queensland. Outcomes from the modelling have been used in recent times to provide mine management with risk-based guidelines for both securing and containing mine water inventories. One of the more interesting tasks has been to establish risk based inventory levels that, if reached, would trigger the immediate implementation of a contract for the desalination and re-use of mine water, at predefined rates. Also, lead-time warning of the occurrence of a possible trigger is of importance to operational and commercial planning. To service this requirement the OPSIM model is regularly used to produce lead-time estimates to defined levels of confidence. Case studies of these, and other, applications of the OPSIM model at German Creek Mine are presented in this paper and serve to demonstrate an effective methodology for practical risked based water management.

Jan 1, 2003

By David J. Hatem, K. Bhattarai

The increasing popularity of alternative methods in delivery of underground infrastructure projects has given rise to innovative and collaborative contracting strategies to allocate and manage the unique risks associated with the work. This paper presents approaches and recent examples of how risk has been dealt with using various alternative delivery methods, including Progressive Design Build (PDB) and Construction Manager/General Contractor (CM/GC). Based on the experience gained from these examples, recommendations for an innovative and collaborative risk baselining approach using contingency sharing are presented that should advance the overall goals of equitable risk sharing and compensation.

Jun 13, 2023

By K. Komnitsas

Activities in the mixed sulphides industry, such as mining and beneficiation, cause adverse impacts to the environment due to excavation, treatment and disposal of low-grade ores and tailings containing residual sulphide minerals. The greatest impact is caused by the oxidation of sulphide phases contained in the tailings and waste rock and the subsequent production of leachates characterized by low pH and high concentration of heavy and toxic elements and sulphates, called acid mine drainage, that contaminates soils, surface- and groundwater. Therefore, rehabilitation of these sites is required in order to render these pollution sources inactive and minimize environmental impacts. The calculation of risk, based on acid mine drainage probability and magnitude of consequences at the disposal sites offers engineers, environmental scientists and authorities a valuable tool for the selection and application of the best remediation technology. Several parameters, such as the chemical and mineralogical properties of the wastes, the most probable pathways the contaminants follow, the potential receptors and the exposure scenarios have to be taken into account. Therefore, risk is the most critical parameter in decision-making regarding management of mining wastes and rehabilitation of disposal sites.

Jan 1, 2002

By Murray Pezim

In the good old days of the folklore of the mining industry, grizzled prospectors obtained a few loose dollars from friends and neighbours then wandered off to eventually return with the great discovery which became the core of the new corporate empires. Alternatively, merchant banking barons obtained exclusive rights to just about anything of future value over hugh nation-size territories. Some of this probably still goes on, likely with about the same ineffectiveness and waste of effort and money as in the past. CURRENT CONCERNS IN MINING In today's difficult climate in the mining industry, for that matter in all industry, effectiveness is the vital consideration. Cost effectiveness -- more bang for the buck -- is especially important in such an area of high risk as mineral exploration. And there are other factors to consider. Since minerals are depleting resources, the mining inddustry is constantly confronted with the reality that those resources extracted today must be immediately replaced if a resource enterprise is to continue. And if growth is to be achieved, even more resources must be found to support future expansion. The current and immediately foreseeable climate internationally for the mining industry creates a special need and urgency for aggressive and successful exploration, certainly in Canada, if not also in the United States. Depressed world markets and prices have turned yesterday's economic reserves into today's waste, hopefully to be converted into economic ore again in some distant time. One way of replenishing reserves and maintaining a viable mining industry is to find and develop mines which are economic under short-term depressed price and market conditions. This probably means higher grades. A new copper discovery with the right combination of characteristics to be an attractive investment even at today's pices for copper would still merit development into production. Exploration is the only way to find such mines for the difficult short-term conditions. Another important consideration is that normally many years stretch from the first thought of conducting exploration to production -- in those rare instances where an economic discovery is made. If discoveries are not made today, then there will not be any projects to develop when business conditions are more attrative. This industry and the vast number of skilled professionals who are part of mining, are faced with two key problems that underlie the need for a junior exploration segment. One consideration is how to maintain exploration during those years, indeed eras, of recession and depression. We are in such a time now. Throughout the world, major companies have sharply cut back, if not eliminated completely, exploration expenditures other than what is vitally necessary and easily and inexpensively done at the known and producing deposits. And related to that consideration, even more important today than during happier times, is how to finance such necessary ongoing exploration if major companies and governments back away because of financial stringency. CANADIAN SUCCESS In Canada, such problems are being tackled with a success which is capturing worldwide attention. The ability of mineral explorers to obtain willing, eager, high-risk capital is achieving even more outstanding results than in the past. These results are reflected in the widespread continuing exploration ativity in Canada which even spreads into the United States, with some outstanding discovery successes. The most notable exploration success from junior mining activity is the discovery of the Hemlo gold camp in northwestern Ontario, a source of gold which promises to rank with the South

Jan 1, 1985

By Greg Wieland

Deep sewer tunnels are required to meet future growth demands of the City of Austin?s down-town redevelopment. The tunnel is 18,000 ft long and varies in finished diameter from 54 inches to 96 inches. The tunnel crosses under Austin?s Town Lake three times and there are four main work shaft sites. Geology, groundwater, foundations, downtown redevelopment, and an active, healthy community put significant constraints on the design. This paper discusses a major underground project for downtown Austin and discusses the risk considerations and the opportunities the design team took toward optimizing the project design for the construction phase.

Jan 1, 2008

By Juan Pablo Vielma

In this work we study how to incorporate risk control to the generation of ultimate pits when orebodies are modeled through a finite number of conditional simulations. To control risk we consider a chance constraint on the value of the ultimate pit. We incorporate this measure into the generation of ultimate pits by solving a stochastic programming version of the ultimate pit problem. We compare this stochastic programming problem to previous approaches such as generating the ultimate pit for each simulation and the hybrid pit approach introduced by Whittle and Bozorgebrahimi. We also study the effect of using different number of simulations in the generation and evaluation of ultimate pits.

Oct 1, 2009

By John Meuth, Brandon Fryman, P. E. Hoffman, Joshua Ph. D., P. E. Calnan, Josh Ph. D.

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be specifically tailored for use by the commercial explosives industry to calculate risk to employees and the public from commercial explosives facilities and operations. This methodology has several advantages over the American Table of Distances (ATD) which is solely a Quantity Distance (Q/D) analysis. While the ATD has remained essentially the same for 100 years, the safety of commercial explosives in storage has increased immensely. However, the concepts behind QRA calculations are not as intuitive and even at the end of the calculations the values of risk must be compared to something. A few regimes for assessing an acceptable level of risk are discussed in this paper. Risk levels for various United States Federal entities and international agencies are highlighted and suggestions for acceptable risk criteria for individuals and groups are provided. Referencing risk levels from normal daily activities is also done in this paper to make relative the accepted risk criteria. This paper presents some relevant individual risks for everyday activities and some scenarios for group risk for comparison. Individual risk is a straightforward concept however group risk is more complicated. This paper aims to clarify these concepts and provide means to communicate them to the public.

Jan 1, 2019

By Michael Samis

The real option valuation method is often presented as an alternative to the conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) approach because it is able to recognize additional project value due to the presence of management flexibility. However, these two valuation methods can be separated on a more fundamental level by their differences in risk discounting. Real option valuation applies the risk-adjustment to the source of uncertainty in the cash flow while the DCF method adjusts for risk at the aggregate level of net cash flow. This seemingly small difference is the reason why the real option method is able to differentiate between projects according to each project?s unique risk characteristics while the conventional DCF approach cannot. This paper provides an overview of the real options and DCF valuation frameworks and discusses the differences in risk discounting that exist between the two methods. Using grade-school mathematics, this paper clearly demonstrates how, with real options, a unique project risk discount can be calculated which is directly linked to the project?s unique risk profile. It also highlights why the DCF method fails in this regard and shows why a call to ?increase the Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate? is an incomplete solution at best. Finally, a heap-leach project and satellite reserve development project are valued with both techniques and the difference in investment conclusions is explained in terms of the risk-discounting concepts discussed here.

May 1, 2003

The exploration and mining risks are investigated and compared to the risks of smelting, secondary processing and other normal industrial activities. This study concentrates on the risk before, or at the investment decision. Internal and external risks are distinguished. Internal risks are the risks inherent in every engineering design and common to all projects. The main external risks are the financial risk, changes in prices, location problems and geological factors. Financial risks concern every capital-intensive and export-oriented project and cannot be considered as typical mining risks. Changes in prices, i.e. the market risk, concern every industry using raw materials, but the market risk is especially accentuated in the mining industry. Problems of location and infrastructure are normally more significant in mining than in other projects, and geological risks are unique to mining. All these risks associated with mining projects combine to form a risk at least twice as high as that for other normal industrial activities. Within the range of profitability of mines, which on average is the same as in the manufacturing industry, only a few highly profitable mines exist. These few mines are the sole reward for the high risks taken.

Jan 1, 1986

By T C. Hunter

There are unique risk factors involved in the development of an Australian uranium project especially by a æjuniorÆ. These encompass a range of political, technical, environmental, regulatory, timing, native title, investor relations and financial issues. The Honeymoon Uranium Project in South Australia is being developed by Southern Cross Resources. The history and experience from a risk viewpoint is detailed and discussed. Particular emphasis is placed upon the practical experience and obstacles overcome to meet project milestones.

Jan 1, 2003

By Limao Zhang

This paper presents a BIM-based Risk Identification Expert System (B-RIES) for metro construction, composed of three main built-in subsystems: BIM extraction, knowledge base management, and risk identification subsystems. The engineering parameter information related to risk factors is extracted from the BIM of a specific project where the IFC standard plays a bridge role between the BIM data and metro construction safety risks. An integrated knowledge base, consisting of fact base, rule base and case base, is established to systematize the fragmented explicit and tacit knowledge. A hybrid inference approach, with case-based reasoning and rule-based reasoning included, is developed to improve the flexibility and comprehensiveness of the system reasoning capacity. During the safety risk identification process, B-RIES is able to improve the inefficiencies in engineering information extraction, reduce the dependence on domain experts, and facilitate knowledge sharing and communication among dispersed clients and domain experts. A typical safety hazard identification in the Mingdu station, located in the Wuhan Metro Line Two, is presented in a case study. The results demonstrate the feasibility of B-RIES, and its application potential. B-RIES can be used as a decision support tool to provide guidelines for safety management in metro construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment.

Aug 1, 2013

By H. Simonsen

Risk assessment consists of a search for the answers to: ?What can happen? ?How likely it is that it can happen? ?What are the consequences if it does happen? Perhaps the most important aim of risk analysis is to predict the likelihood that a planned profit will be achieved over a given period of time. A typical risk model employed for this purpose includes a stochastic connection between the dependent variable of an expression that describes a process and independent variables represented as random quantities. The output will be a probabilistic distribution. The uncertainties in a planned mining operation include: ?Commodity market characteristics, particularly price ?Ore reserves and mineralogical composition ?Mining method ?Process performance ?Capital and operating costs ?Schedule duration ?Economic environment effects. The processes employed in the probabilistic estimation of a project?s outcome include both Monte Carlo simulations and simulations where variable correlation is considered important. The risk model, once developed and tested, provides a framework for a rational approach to risk analysis and the testing of alternatives.

Jan 1, 1999

Paper presented at the UK minerals industry conference and published in: Minerals extraction towards the millennium. UK minerals industry conference, 3-5 April 1995, University of Leeds. London: Institution of Mining and Metallurgy, 1995. The various types of risks that arise in minerals industry projects are usually financial, technical, or environmental, and the key to valid risk analysis is complete integration of all risks, both within and between categories. Geographical information systems (GIS) and geostatistical simulation methods can provide a means of integrating data and conducting realistic risk analyses. Risk can be quantified but there are limitations to numerical approaches to risk assessment. Realistic quantification requires adequate models of the processes that give rise to risk. Risk perception must also be taken into account when conducting risk assessment and reporting the results, especially in public forums. The modelling and visualisation capabilities of a combined GIS/simulation system can provide the means of dealing with perception in risk analysis

Jun 19, 1905

By A. M. Clegg

In general, overall experience has shown that the approach to the appointment of a project manager is given much attention, but little specific attention is given first to the risk associated with the project conceptual design and its overall executability within either the new legislative framework or the sustainability of the outcome. The risk in project executability and sustainability within the ?new age? legislative framework of the Mining Charter, etc, is itself however, of far greater importance. The degree of importance being defined by the intended projects impact on the business going forward. This is particularly the case where the intention of the implementation is effectively to turn around or even enhance a loss-making strategic investment like a mine or process plant operation in an ?old-order rights? or Brownfield?s operation. This paper attempts to highlight the importance of a ?pre-project project? (PPP) to mitigate the risk in the ?new age?, with specific reference to operational due diligence (ODD) and project conceptual design.

Jan 1, 2005

By Edward Holloway

The basis for the selection of the ultimate pit for an open-pit mining operation is generally opaque. Some form of value-based analysis will generally guide the final decision; however, the value will often gradually plateau while the ultimate pit size continues to increase. There is no established framework to guide specialists in the selection of the ultimate pit, with such decisions regularly made on a somewhat arbitrary basis. The key component that is missing from the analyses typically used to select the size of the ultimate pit is risk. Once risk is quantified within the analysis framework, the decision-mak-ing range is significantly reduced and the process for select-ing the ultimate pit becomes more consistent, replicable and defensible. The technique outlined in this paper provides an approach to including risk in the process used to select the ultimate pit.

Jun 1, 2024