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By Christopher Mark

Area wide pillar failures, or “squeezes,” were once fairly common in underground coal mines. While rare today, they do occur. This paper describes seven case histories that were investigated by MSHA Technical Support. They occurred across the range of US coalfields, in both longwall and room-and-pillar mines, and involved development mining, pillar recovery, longwall panel extraction, and multiple seam interactions. Significant lessons from each are discussed.

Jun 25, 2024

By Timothy Batchler, Khaled Mohamed, Morgan Sears

The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) initiated a testing program to assess the effects of lateral loading on various standing supports used in underground coal mines. This study is not intended to endorse a particular type of standing supports nor to provide a comparison between different types of standing supports. This paper aims to measure the lateral loading capacity of two types of standing supports and evaluate how it affects their vertical loading capacity and yielding mechanisms. The study utilizes the Mine Roof Simulator (MRS) at NIOSH Pittsburgh. Type-1 support is characterized by telescopic tubes made from ASTM A-513 steel with a specified locking mechanism, and Type-2 support comprises a single component constructed from ASTM A500 Welded Grade C pipe. Vertical load tests were carried out to assess the designed performance of Type-1 and Type-2 props. Type-1 props demonstrated a "constant yielding" behavior, achieving an ultimate capacity of up to 140 kips. Type-2 props showed a "load shedding" behavior, reaching peak verti- cal loads of up to 191 kips. Buckling analysis revealed that Type-1 props were not designed to buckle, and Type-2 props failed due to buck- ling rather than material yielding. Under vertical pre-loading, lateral loading tests showed that Type-1 props can withstand about 9 kips, and Type-2 props can withstand about 10.79 kips of lateral load. This represents roughly 6% of their vertical loading capacities. Testing props under lateral loads in addition to their intended vertical loads showed that the lateral loads could influence their loading mechanisms. Type-1 props did not exhibit the expected "constant yielding" behavior under lateral load but instead showed "load shedding" decreasing their rated vertical capacity by 70%. At high vertical pre-loading, Type-2 props demonstrated "constant yielding" behavior instead of the anticipated "load shedding," leading to a 60% reduction in their rated vertical capacity. These findings provide valuable insights into the behavior of these props under different loading conditions, aiding in their efficient use and design in underground mining operations.

Jun 25, 2024

By J. Fuller, J. Beale, Q. Justice, Z. Agioutantis, S. Hicks, Z. Khademian

Seismic events can be induced by mining due to unstable rock failures or slips along geologic structures leading to the sudden release of strain energy stored within the rock near underground openings. Depending on their intensity and proximity to the working area, seismic events may raise safety concerns, and thus the forecasting of the seismic potential in advance of mining can mitigate safety hazards. The integration of seismic data into geomechanical modeling can provide a tool for identifying areas with elevated potential for seismic activity. In previous works, a methodology was developed to forecast seismic potentials in a pseudo-2D geomechanical model. In this paper, seismic events, ranging in magnitude from about -1.0 ML to 3.7 ML, recorded in a deep longwall mine (> 450 m) in Virginia during mining of six adjacent panels, were evaluated to identify areas where larger magnitude events (> 1 ML) had occurred. A three-dimensional geomechanical model of the same area was constructed in the 3DEC software to calculate the state of energy in the system with the progress of mining along the entire length of each panel. The variation in the energy content of the model was monitored, and zones with potentially damaging slip-type events along bedding planes followed by compressive-type events in the sandstone roof are the mechanism for large seismic events in the studied mine. The locations of anomalous events corresponded to the regions where both compression-type SPI (C-SPI) and slip-type SPI (S-SPI) were elevated. The modeling results were compared with the recorded seismic events to evaluate the model performance in forecasting the seismic potentials. The model was able to forecast 100% of regions with elevated and moderate seismic potential and 89% of regions with low seismic potential. This shows the applicability of energy balance calculations for forecasting the approximate location and timing of destructive seismic events in advance of mining.

Jun 25, 2024

By Emily Muto

LiDAR technology has made it possible to map large areas of underground mines accurately and rapidly in three dimensions. MSHA Technical Support began implementing LiDAR technology in conjunction with the Agency’s Pillar Collapse Initiative, using scans to determine width-to-height ratios (w/h) of pillars adjacent to mass collapse areas and to conduct risk assessments for global pillar stability in U.S. stone mines. This work quickly expanded to include change detection, such as measuring many pillars to show which are deteriorating over time. Change detection has also been used in ground falls and squeeze areas to see if they have continued to propagate. LiDAR technology supports accurate data acquisition of unstable mining conditions from safe distances. For example, once the LiDAR scan has been processed, it can measure roof fall cavity heights and volumes with the user at a stable ground location. Some LiDAR scanners can collect geologic data, such as joint orientations.

Jun 25, 2024

By Alim Elibol, Rosbel Jimenez, Mustafa Can Suner, Deniz Tuncay, Zach Agioutantis

LaModel is a displacement-discontinuity variation of the boundary element method, which is utilized to analyze the displacement and stress in flat-lying, tabular orebodies. In coal mining, the accuracy and reliability of LaModel are proven with the utilization of the Mark- Bieniawski coal pillar strength and the stress gradient formula with proposed methodologies. However, the application of LaModel is limited to coal mines due to the default coal pillar strength properties. Recently, the stress gradient functions have been established and used to derive concentric rings of zones to simulate stone mine pillar yielding in LaModel. Also, to gain a robust understanding of the brittle failure mechanism and its effect on pillar strength, an S-Shaped failure envelope, where rock mass' cohesive and frictional strength components mobilize as a function of confinement (e.g., minimum principal stress), has been implemented into FLAC3D software. Therefore, by employing brittle failure criteria, the pillar strength stages at various width-to-height ratios and different pillar dimensions are estimated for four benching stages. The estimated pillar strengths and stress gradients for benching conditions are then used to calibrate LaModel in-seam material properties and compare stresses computed by LaModel and FLAC3D. Consequently, this study aims to increase the safety measures in the stone mining industry by implementing the practical use of LaModel for underground stone mines' initial development to various stages of bench mining.

Jun 25, 2024

By S. E. Phillipson

The MSHA Technical Support, Roof Control Division's primary evaluation tool for coal pillar designs is the Analysis of Coal Pillar Stability (ACPS) program. However, ACPS is limited to evaluating interactions between two seams at a time, which is not ideal for complex multiple- seam scenarios. Further, it does not recognize the influence of strata properties in the interburden and cannot be used to evaluate individual pillars. We apply the Rocscience RS2 two-dimensional finite element program as a complement to ACPS. Complex multiple-seam scenarios can be characterized by a modified pillar stability factor where the ACPS single-seam development pillar stability factor is multiplied by the ratio of average single-seam development stress to the stress in the critical pillar at the multiple-seam stage, using the values of o as predicted by RS2. Several series of test examples involving two-seam analyses with isolated remnants, gob-solid boundaries, and high extraction areas of varying width were used to calibrate simulated gob properties such that the ACPS+RS2 method generated results that matched a traditional ACPS Stability Factor to within 13%. As high-extraction areas become wider and deeper, progressively stiffer gob is simulated by increasing the Young's Modulus property in RS2. After achieving calibration with the test series, three examples of complex multiple-seam scenarios were evaluated, using reasonable properties for strata types and thicknesses based on core log data. Resulting modified stability factors are reasonably close to those predicted by ACPS, although affected by units of sandstone in the interburden and gob shadows superimposed on remnant structures. This tends to show that even in complex multiple-seam conditions, applying ACPS to the worst-case interaction should usually result in an acceptable pillar design.

Jun 25, 2024

By Syd Peng, W. B. Guo, F. Du, L. Yang, J. Yw. Cheng

The annual ICGCM China was initiated in 2014. Up to 2023, ICGCM China has been held 9 times. In the 9 conferences during the past 10 years, about 559 papers in 17 topical areas were presented and attendance ranged from 200+ to 400+ each conference. The 42nd ICGCM China was held in Xiangtan, Hunan, China, 10/20–10/22/2023. There were 86 papers presented in 26 topical areas. In addition, an MS and PhD Research Forum was held concurrently with 36 papers presented by MS and PhD candidates in mining engineering from 8 schools. The conference plays an important role in cultivating advanced degree student talents. In this paper, all 559 papers reviewed previously were summarized. In addition, the 42nd ICGCM China is used to illustrate the current and future development trends of coal mine ground control in China. It summarizes the 122 papers (including 36 MS and PhD forum papers) grouping into, and in terms of, 26 topical areas. In addition, its unique and innovative subject areas, short summary of developments as well as conference strengths and shortcomings will also be presented.

Jun 25, 2024

By Delbert Hamilton, Christopher Snyder

In the last three years there have been four uncontrolled heating events in mines that have been attributed to the use of polyurethane foam as a void fill product. These heating events are due to the exothermic reaction that occurs during application of these polymeric products. These events led the Mine Safety and Health Administration to issue a safety alert on polyurethane products used in void filling and ground consolidation in mining, with the goal of educating the mining community about this potential hazard. This paper provides an overview of various types of polymeric products and best practices, the factors that contributed to the heating events, and case studies involving polymeric products.

Jun 25, 2024

By Jin Zhao, Weijie Wei, Jinwang Zhang, Xiaohang Wan, Shengli Yang

Reasonable mining-retention ratio (ratio of room width to pillar width) is vital to recovery rate and stope stability in underground mining of solid potassium salt deposits. Based on the engineering background of a solid underground potassium salt mine in Khammouan Province, characteristics of the plastic zone of the pillar, and the variation of recovery rate and stope stability under different mining-retention ratio conditions are discussed. The results show that compared with current room width (8 m) and pillar width (10 m), the optimization method of improvement of stope stability. The research results are helpful to recover as much solid potash resources as possible under the premise of ensuring the stability of stope.

Jun 25, 2024

By Steve Hicks, Zach Agioutantis, Greg Hasenfus, Zach Wedding

Most prediction methods used to calculate mining-induced subsidence rely on empirical formulations, which typically assume flat topography and uniform properties in the overburden. It is also well known that when a longwall panel mines below a valley bottom surface ground deformation magnitudes and orientations may be significantly influenced by the presence of the valley. This paper discusses ground deformation data collected at different surface locations above the Buchanan mine in the eastern United States. Measurements at individual surface points and strata movement measurements using a three-point extensometer have been collected as the area was undermined. Measurements correspond to the mining of the panel immediately under the measurement points and to the mining of adjacent panels. Measurement locations correspond to valley bottom locations. The measurements are critically evaluated and compared with respect to topography and panel face location. The issue of the fluctuation of GPS measurements is also discussed.

Jun 25, 2024

By Peter Zhang, Daniel Su, Bo Kim, Berk Tulu

This paper summarizes significant findings from the ongoing NIOSH Gas Well Stability research over the past decade; in particular, the important ground control engineering considerations. Longwall-induced surface and subsurface deformations may induce gas well casing deformations and stresses, depending on a few parameters such as overburden depth, overburden geology, topographic relief, strata dip, gas well setback distance, and a gas well casing cementing alternative. Overburden depth to the mining seam is one of the most influential factors; shallow overburden depth induces large horizontal displacement and resulting casing deformation and stress, while deep overburden depth induces large longwall-induced vertical pressure. Overburden geology is another important factor affecting the longwall- induced casing deformations and stresses; the large contrast of bending stiffness at the soft-to-hard rock interfaces tends to induce large casing deformations and stresses. Large surface topographic relief and the presence of soft-to-hard rock interfaces below the stream valley bottoms may shift longwall-induced subsurface gas well casing deformations closer to the surface, thus having less impact on underground. mining operations. Strata dip magnifies longwall-induced deformations by 20% per degree of strata dip for down dip longwall excavations. The gas well setback distance is also a critical geometric parameter; the effect of longwall-induced deformation decreases exponentially as the setback distance increases. Longwall-induced casing deformation and stress will be mitigated or totally uncoupled for uncemented production casing.

Jun 25, 2024

By Shawn Boltz, Erik Westman, Derrick Chambers, Xingdong Zhaoa, Qiankun Zhua

Microseismic passive velocity tomography is becoming an effective technology for large-scale mining-induced stress monitoring in underground mines, especially in the field of early warning of mining-induced hazards. Aiming at the problems of missing low-magnitude events in traditional microseismic monitoring, as well as the potential to increase the resolution of the tomograms in both time and space, a microseismic passive velocity tomography analysis method based on the template matching method was proposed. First, the template matching method was used to pick microseismic events. Then, the probabilistic, non-linear, global-search earthquake location method was used to locate the events and calculate travel time and travel distance. Finally, the fast-marching method was used to carry out passive velocity tomography analysis to image the movement of the abutment stress associated with the longwall. The results show that the selected templates can identify more microseismic events than the traditional microseismic analysis, and the variation trend of events in each day is consistent with the data from the traditional analysis. Using microseismic event locations, travel times and travel distance can effectively complete microseismic passive velocity tomography analysis in each day during the study period and can effectively identify the forward and side abutment stress zones of that longwall panel. This study provides a reference for the identification of mine-induced high stress zones, which has implications for hazard identification and mitigation, with increased resolution of the tomograms in time and space.

Jun 25, 2024

By Grażyna Dzik, Adam Mirek, Krzysztof Król

The Upper Silesian Coal Basin is located in the area of the Upper Silesian Syncline and belongs to one of the most complex tectonic units in Europe. It occupies 5,650 km2. In 2020, there were 20 hard coal mines operating in the area. Seismological research in this area consists of observation of precursors/symptoms of shock generation and understanding of their effects. Studies (Teisseyre R. 1972, Mutke G. & Stec K. 1997, Stec K. 2007, Dubiński J. & other 2010, Idziak A. 2010) of complex impacts of rock mass provided a background for determining the conditions for the formation of exploitation and regional seismic shocks. Issues related to tectonic and exploitation stresses, successive extraction of coal seams at higher depths, operation in the vicinity of fault zones, often complex geological and organic conditions result in the activation of a discontinuity surface due to stress caused by deformation of rock layers, which, as a result, causes the emergence of strong shocks above 107 J. The article was based on analyses of extraction value, high-energy shocks, both of mining and tectonic-mining (so-called regional shocks) origin, against the background of changing operating conditions, which, as a result, creates an image of periodically changing seismic activity and location of strong shocks. Observation results show that, with an increase in exploitation depth and declining extraction, the number of strong shocks caused by tectonic stress (107 - 109 J) and exploitation stress (≥105 J) has been steadily increasing over the last 25 years.

Apr 26, 2022

By Atsushi Sainoki

Induced seismicity is deeply related to various engineering projects entailing anthropogenic in-situ stress change in deep underground. Hence, there is a persistent demand for estimating and mitigating the risk. Significant efforts have been made in simulating induced seismicity with a variety of numerical simulation techniques; however, there are still discrepancies between characteristics of induced seismicity numerically simulated and observed in the field. One of such discrepancies is the simulation of triggered seismicity defined as seismic events caused by an infinitesimal amount of anthropogenic stress change, which is frequently observed in geological structures. The present study aims to develop a methodology to simulate triggered seismicity whilst reproducing a complex stress state in a fault zone. For the purpose, a discrete fracture network within a fault damage zone is first generated. Then, an equivalent continuum model, in which each zone has a different anisotropic compliance tensor, is constructed by employing the crack tensor theory. A fault core is simulated at the center of the model with interface elements. Using the equivalent continuum model, an initial stress condition is simulated with the boundary traction method, which results in a very complex stress state with stress anomalies due to the stiffness anisotropy and heterogeneity. Subsequently, the effective normal stress on the fault plane is decreased in a stepwise manner to induce slip. The result demonstrated that many seismic events are induced on the fault plane with a slight decrease in the confining stress, thus being regarded as triggered seismic event. Further analysis on this seismic activity shows that the magnitude of triggered seismic events is inconsistent with the amount of shear stress drop, implying that a relatively small triggered seismic event could produce a large stress drop, generating locally intense ground motions and thus inducing severe damage to the nearby rock mass.

Apr 26, 2022

By Klein E., Kinscher J., Lizeur A., De Santis F., Lhoumaud E.

Seismic repeaters are rarely observed phenomena in underground mines. However, recent studies in Garpenberg mine (Sweden) have demonstrated that seismic repeaters and multiplets may represent significant portion of the total number of microseismic events (> 80 %) related to excavation operations. Detailed seismic analysis, involving template matching, multiplet clustering, double-difference relocation, source parameter and mechanism estimation, and interevent time analysis, suggest that seismic repeaters represent brittle frictional parts (asperity) of creeping, planar shaped, pre-exiting structures of several meters length. It is furthermore suggested that seismic repeater occur preferentially in weak rock-mass materials (e.g. talc) associated with strengthening friction behaviors. These results may imply that postblast related stress redistribution may be governed by “silent” aseismic movements in preferentially weak rock mass materials, what questions the reliability and performance of seismic monitoring to survey stress evolution during excavation operations. However, once the seismic and aseismic coupling processes and the geological nature linked to repeater occurrences are better understood, their detailed monitoring bears also opportunities to survey and quantify aseismic post-blast stress transfer. Here we present ongoing investigations on repeater occurrences aiming at better understating on their geological and geomechanical origin. Furthermore, we try to develop advanced monitoring tools helping to quantify aseismic slip and to provide criteria for seismic hazard as asperity density and the related potential to generate larger dynamic rupture zones. For this respect a local monitoring network has been set up close to certain repeater target families. Furthermore, geological well log drilling throughout repeater occurrences as well as geotechnical strain measurements (e.g. extensometer, optical fiber etc.) are currently conducted to provide crucial information on the geological nature of repeater and to quantify and characterize background creep induced from excavation.

Apr 26, 2022

By Jurgens PE Hamman, Faisal Putra, Hadnaltias Alpeki, Willem de Beer

The Deep Ore Zone mine is the third lift of caving at PT Freeport Indonesia’s East Ertsberg Skarn System. An increasing trend in seismicity along the northern boundary of the DOZ cave, as well as the northern fringes of the DOZ production and infrastructure levels, was taken as indicative of an interaction between the approaching DMLZ cave and the DOZ subsidence zone. Seismicity trends and locations indicated a reducing crown pillar and an associated stress increase along these DOZ excavations, as well as the regional area along the DOZ cave boundaries. Although rockbursts were not identified as an immediate hazard, seismic shakedown was a highly probable hazard in the case of remote large (≥3.0) seismic events. An evaluation process, as described in the Canadian Rockburst Support Handbook (1996), was followed to identify and quantify the various parameters that could contribute to a shakedown evaluation. A shakedown assessment, based on the Peak Particle Velocities scaling relation, was conducted to assess the current installed ground support systems along the northern fringes and the fixed facilities of the DOZ mine. The range in ground support systems were mostly due to different geotechnical environments. The load–deformation characteristics of these support systems were evaluated to determine the support capacity and compared to the potential support demand under varying shakedown conditions. Shakedown hazard maps were compiled to indicate the installed ground support system’s vulnerability to seismic shaking. Based on this information, areas were divided into zones indicating whether they were sufficiently supported, additional support was required, access was to be restricted, and / or they were to be abandoned. Mine management utilised these hazard maps to strategize actions for the various operational zones within the DOZ, including the fixed facilities. This paper briefly describes the derivation of the PPV scaling relationship. Seismic and geological data for the DMLZ – DOZ interaction areas were evaluated to determine the likely source of large events. Subsequent larger events and their effects are shown to assess the veracity of the magnitude and PPV estimates, as well as the effectiveness and appropriateness of the ground support systems.

Apr 26, 2022

By KOKOWSKI J., RUDZIŃSKI Ł.

The LUMINEOS network was established in 2013 to monitor mining-induced seismicity in Legnica-Głogów Copper District (LGCD), located in south-western Poland. Since the starting time, the network was improved and today consists of 17 seismometers and 10 accelerometers. Up to now, the strongest recorded earthquake in the region had Mw4.0. Both raw seismic data and earthquakes catalog for events recorded by the LUMINEOS network are fully open and available on the EPISODES platform (https://tcs.ah-epos.eu/#episode:LGCD). During the last 7 years, the network improvements gave us a possibility to increase location accuracy for shallow mining events. This accuracy is influenced by factors such as the configuration of seismic stations, noise level at seismic stations, and the influence of the velocity model. Here we encountered two main issues which are worth to discuss. The first one is the low detection threshold of two seismic stations and their significant impact on the location errors. The second one is the large uncertainty in the S-wave picking. Even though S-waves are not so clearly visible on seismograms, they are very helpful in the estimation of source location and strength of seismic events in the region. In our work, we present the history of LUMINEOS network and corresponding improvement on location accuracy as well as the influence of noisy stations on the error distribution and how it is connected with location results. We also investigate the effect of the S-wave phases and how they are related to the accuracy of the earthquakes locations in the network.

Apr 26, 2022

By Kathy Kalenchuk

To develop strategic and tactical strategies to manage seismic hazard in a safe and economic manner, it is necessary to understand the spatial and temporal distribution of mine wide seismogenic behavior. Global mine-scale numerical stress modelling provides a means to forward predict seismic susceptibility thereby facilitating informed decision making for the development and implementation of strategic and tactical risk mitigation measures. To make forward predictions of hazard susceptibility using global stress models with reasonable confidence, it is necessary to rigorously calibrate numerical stress models to the observed history of ground reaction. This paper demonstrates quantifiable methods for calibrating numerical models and developing probabilistic prediction criterion using seismic data. The appropriate applications of model inputs (including boundary conditions, constitutive models and material parameterization) specific to global mine-scale modelling are also discussed. Lastly, this paper demonstrates how the calibration process adds value not only to informed decision making, but also to the improved understanding of site geomechanical conditions; including enhanced identification of geotechnical domains and mechanical indicators required for seismic mechanism domaining.

Apr 26, 2022

By Musa D. Manzi, Raymond J. Durrheim, Richard T. Masethe

Large mining-induced seismic events and their aftershocks cause hazardous working conditions, damage infrastructure, delay production and pose a risk to miners in the deep-level gold mines of South Africa. Stress changes affecting pre-existing zones of weakness are the main drivers of large mining-induced seismic events, which are often followed by aftershocks triggered by quasi-static stress transfer within the rockmass. A better understanding of seismic source mechanisms is important if the seismic data is to be used more effectively for mine planning and to reduce the rockburst risk. Four large seismic events (ML≥2.0) associated with the mining of the Ventersdorp Contact Reef (VCR) at Kloof Gold Mine occurred on 13 June 2017. The events and their fore- and aftershocks were studied in detail to establish the circumstances and the cause of the incidents. The local magnitudes ranged from ML 2.3 to ML 3.0, the seismic moment from 0.69 to 2.25 x 1013 Nm and the source radius from 92 – 150 m. The main shocks were preceded by foreshock sequences, which were especially vigorous in the four hours before the main shock. Seismicity was recorded by in-mine arrays of three-component 4.5Hz geophones (detection threshold approx. ML -2.9). Following all four main seismic events, ML 2.3, ML 2.3, ML 2.9 and ML 3.0, the network detected a total number of 300 aftershocks ranging from ML -2.9 to ML 1.6 spread within a 1300 m radius from the centre of the seismic network. The statistical properties of the aftershocks were analysed using three scaling relationships: (i) Gutenberg–Richter frequency magnitude relationship; (ii) modified Omori’s law; and (iii) Båth’s law for the magnitude of the largest aftershock. The geological or mining feature that controlled the failure (e.g., fault, dyke, pillar, abutment) was determined by calculating the orientation of the nodal planes of the large seismic events using moment tensor analysis and studying the aftershock distributions.

Apr 26, 2022

By Lourens Scheepers

Mining induced seismicity and rockbursts have been part of the deep level gold mining industry in South Africa for many years. One could be forgiven for thinking that we should know everything there is to know by now to have rockbursting under control to a level that it has minimal impact on safety and production. Well, we don’t… There are things we know that we know, and they are implemented, or should be. There are thigs we know that we don’t know, and they are researched, or should be. There are things we don’t know that we don’t know, and, well, we don’t know… We know that seismicity and the associated potential for rockbursts generally increase with an increase in stress (increase in mining depth and/or mining span and creation of remnants) and proximity to faults and dykes. We know there are a number of potential sources of events in a mine; that is: mining abutments, pillar abutments, mining faces and geological structures (faults and dykes). We know there are a number of event mechanisms associated with these sources; that is: slip on a geological structure, shear through intact rock and bursting of the rock near the edge of a mining excavation. One of the tools used more and more and with increased success to identify event source mechanisms is Moment-Tensor analysis (MT). This typically assist in differentiating between three event mechanism components: volumetric deformation component, axial deformation component and slip / shear component. The insight gained from MT assist greatly in identifying the most likely event source to assist in understanding the rockmass response to mining. We know that the seismic response in our mines are mining induced (not natural). This may seem trivial, but it is important to realise that we influence the seismic response with the way we mine, and by how much we mine (extraction ratio). Therefore we put design rules and strategies in place to reduce the seismic hazard and we install rockburst support in our mining excavations. We know the seismic response to mining is influenced by the properties of the rockmass, including strength, stiffness and brittleness, but quantifying its influence is typically more difficult than expected. We know numerical modelling can improve the engineer’s understanding of the potential rockmass response associated with designed mining layouts and strategies. For our environment (narrow, tabular large area) elastic boundary element modelling remains the most convenient and practical approach, but it overestimates the stress at mining abutments and underestimates the stress further away from these abutments. Adding a crushing (based in limit equilibrium) modelling approach vastly improves the boundary element modelling ability to simulate the deformed (interpret fractured) zones and associated redistribution of stress. We don’t know how to quantify what an acceptable seismic risk is. We don’t know if we can mine remnants at an acceptable seismic risk. Some remnants are extracted surprisingly easy, others serve us with devastating rockbursts. The limit equilibrium modelling shows potential to significantly improve our ability to quantify the rockburst risk. We don’t know if large-scale preconditioning is possible and will be effective to significantly reduce the seismic risk associated with remnant and pillar mining. Research is required (and has been initiated). Vast areas of ground have been extracted historically in the South African gold fields. Most gold reserves are now in deeper ground (4000 m) and historic remnants (areas left before due to mining difficulties) as well as pillars (regional stability pillars). If we cannot find ways to extract these reserves at acceptable risk levels, the future of the South African gold mining industry is very short.

Apr 26, 2022