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By G. R. Waters

"The technology behind industrial applications such as Hydrometallurgy continues to evolve, as do the corresponding regulations and specifications that ensure the safety of workers and the environment. Valves make up key aspects of this technology, and often represent the single point of failure for entire operations. More often than not, the valves being used in Hydrometallurgy applications are known as Severe Service Valves (SSVs) due to their ability to withstand the extreme conditions. Most experts agree that SSVs are identified by applications, and that these applications are challenging to the valve’s ability to provide a minimum acceptable level of performance over a minimum acceptable duration. The Manufacturers Standardization Society (MSS) of the Valve and Fittings Industry has designated Ross Waters, President of CGIS, as Lead to the Task Force put in place to determine the minimum requirements a valve needs to be able to perform to when faced with extreme conditions, whether from pressure, temperature, toxicity, solids, or usage. This paper serves to determine what the minimum requirements are for SSVs in Hydrometallurgy applications. It will draw on five decades of industry experience from one of Canada’s leading valve experts.INTRODUCTION Severe Service Valves Severe Service Valves (SSVs) mean different things to different people. Until today, defining SSVs had little if any global agreement or recognition. That is about to change as the Manufacturers Standardization Society (MSS) has accepted an application to produce a Standard Practice so defining them. This paper provides information about the selection of SSVs in all industries but focusses on metallurgical processes and applications and offers examples to illustrate the successful and unsuccessful use of these valves. All of this with the purpose of raising the awareness of the industry on all sides, from the suppliers and manufacturers, specifiers and to the users and owners of them. It also supplies tools to understand where and why to separate SSVs from general purpose or commodity valves (GPVs). SSVs are often identified by applications, and these applications are challenging to the valve’s ability to survive. Within these applications the elements that make the service severe are being analyzed, quantified and qualified. From this, we expect to offer objective and repeatable definitions and guidance to improve the experience of SSVs, reduce unnecessary costs, provide longer service life and process runs, improve safety and reduce environmental issues."

Jan 1, 2017

By Richard D. Moffett

The MineSight® Implicit Modeler arms geologists, engineers and surveyors with a better approach to 3D modeling. Use the tool to quickly retrieve a 3D wireframe from drillhole data and onscreen interpretation. Generate faster and more informed decisions to guide future work and improve reproducibility of results. Implicit Modeling is a mathematical surface fitting method that interpolates points to give a smooth and realistic fit. Control results by mixing planar, sectional and non-orthogonal polygons or polylines, as well as drillhole information to create solids or surfaces. The outcomes are particularly valuable to identify ore body trends, generate 3D contours of drillhole intercepts, or produce cut-off 3D maps. MineSight Implicit Modeler (MSIM) is fully integrated in MineSight?s robust and versatile suite of products, allowing you to interpret, interpolate and calculate while moving between applications. It connects seamlessly with the MineSight Torque SQL database, offering access to extensive filtering options. MSIM makes modeling much faster, allowing geologists more time to analyze data and test theories. The presentation will reveal how MSIM complements MineSight?s geomodeling workflow.

May 1, 2013

By John Galbraith, Dwayne D. Tannant, Chris C. Langille

"Development of underground openings in a deep mining environment requires a support system that is able to absorb energy as a result of dynamic loading due to rockbursting and blasting and static loading due to convergence as the development face advances. The support system must be resistant to corrosion and be effective over the life of the excavation, upward of ten years, yet simple and cost effective to install. Over the past two years, research has been conducted at INCO’s Creighton Mine to try and identify a one-pass grouted support system that will meet these needs.The main problem faced, with simply using grouted rebar at depth, is the effect of tunnel convergence on the stiff grouted bolts. Typically, if fully grouted, stiff rebar are installed to the face of an advancing development heading, the amount of convergence that occurs can result in failure of the bolts at the face plates used to attach the mine screen to the back. An initial support is required to enable crews to continue the bolting cycle in the immediate term, yet allow for this convergence over the longer term as the drift advances. The ideal support system will allow both to occur, giving effective immediate support while providing long-term effectiveness in allowing convergence to occur while maintaining the capacity of the bolt.This paper will investigate the expected convergence in deep development headings at +2200 m (+7200 ft) through the use of direct measurements using both flex rod extensometers grouted into the back of a development heading and five-point tape extensometer stations. Measured results will be compared with simple2-D numerical analysis to evaluate the anticipated convergence expected to be absorbed by the bolting system. The required convergence will then be compared with load deformation response of several support configurations."

Jan 1, 1996

By G. Frithum

In the present paper a new and highly economic route for Fe-separation from HCl leaching processes in hydrometallurgical applications is described. In most ore leaching processes, Fe is involved and needs to be separated; HCl has become an interesting leaching agent, because it can be recycled. Usually a mix of Fe2+ and Fe3+ is obtained which can be hydrolyzed directly (in case only Fe3+) or roasted via pyrohydrolysis (in case of Fe2+) to ferric oxide. Economic oxidation of Fe2+ to Fe3+ is described, and potential technologies for regeneration of HCl with separation of Fe are shown and compared.

Jan 1, 2014

By M. I. Abbas, M. A. Shahin, M. S. Ahmed

"The influence of annealing of galvanized steel (galvannealing) on its corrosion kinetics in a saturated solution of Ca (OH)2 has been studied by means of the polarization resistance method.Galvannealing heat treatment was carried out at 450°C and 550°C for varying times. Annealing at 450°C for 24 hr or at 550°C for 5 hr showed the highest corrosion potential (Ecorr) ~= - 400 m V/ SCE as well as, the lowest corrosion current density (icorr ~= 3 mA.cm-2, while Ecorr and icorr of the unheated specimens were ~= - 1400m V/SCE and == 20 mA.cm-2, respectively.Polarization curves were also obtained for the as-received galvanized specimens together with the galvannealed ones.INTRODUCTIONHeat treatment of galvanized steel (i.e . galvannealing) is carried out at a temperature range of 450°C to 550°C for a time sufficient to convert the free zinc coating to an alloyed one consisting of layers of iron-zinc intermetallic compounds. Table I is a review of the properties of the Fe-Zn intermetallicphases while Figure I is a reproduction - of the Fe-Zn equilibrium phase diagram taken from Hansen.Several authors have studied the formation of intermetallic phases through the interdiffusion of Zn/Fe couples. Their results confirmed the stability of intermetallic phases that could be shown up on the outer surface as a result of galvannealing of galvanized steel.Bernick and Sievertv"" investigated the processing of galvan nealed steel. They found that the galvannealed coating with the best forming qualities consisted of a mixture of Zeta phase and Eta phase."

Jan 1, 1989

By T. S. Golosinski

"This paper reviews the types of selective continuous miners (SCMs) available at present, and compares their main features. Furthermore, operating practices and mine planning aspects of the SCMs applications are reviewed and conditions for efficient application of this equipment are defined. Finally, the potential applications of the SCMs in surf ace mining of oil sands are discussed INTRODUCTIONIn the 1970s the United States Bureau of Mines (USBM) conducted a program of investigations, design and demonstration of various continuous surface mining concepts, This included continuous mining equipment which was an adaptation of several civil engineering and/or underground mining machinery concepts to surface mining. Upon termination of this program, the related development was continued by a number of equipment manufacturers, leading to development of several types of SCMs. This new type of surface mining equipment is able to mine selectively hard and thin multi-layered formations at high, sustained, and economically viable production rates.While used mostly in coal mining at present, the characteristic features of this equipment permit conclusion that it may prove to be an efficient tool for surface mining of oil sand, and/or related overburden stripping. Of particular interest here may be the ability to mine thin layers of hard material, without a need for its earlier fragmentation, and the ability of the SCMs to load a variety of haulage equipment, including belt conveyors."

Jan 1, 1989

By F. P. Agterberg

"IntroductionTHE KNOWLEDGE about the mineral resources in a region ranges from relatively precise ore-reserve estimates for known deposits to probabilistic estimates concerning the speculative resources which may be discovered in future at greater depths and in the less-explored parts of the region. Previously developed probabilistic methods for regional resource evaluation (1) are based on the following two assumptions.(1) The probability that a specific block of rock, or part of a region close to the topographic surface, contains undiscovered deposits can be estimate d by weighting selected geological, geophysical or geochemical parameters for that block. The weights are computed by considering similar environments which are known to contain deposits.(2) Some of the characteristics of the undiscovered deposits, such as ore tonnages and average grades of metals contained in the ore, can be evaluated by considering probability distributions f or known deposit data. These methods were initially applied to Precambrian deposits in the Abitibi Volcanic Belt of the Canadian Shield (1).Since 1972, statistical methods for quantitative resource evaluation have been applied to the occurrences of the mainly Paleozoic base metal deposits in t he Canadian Appalachian Region. The objectives of this project (Project Appalachia) have been discussed by Leech (2) in a paper that introduces 8 papers with results of the exploratory data analysis. Project Appalachia represents an effort to develop and apply methods of combining information and concepts from regional geology, metallogeny and geomathematics for computer- aided regional mineral resource evaluation."

Jan 1, 1977

By A. Ignatieff

"A practical picture of the effects of stress and of the structural environment in an extraction area in a bedded deposit is described, and the main factors of ground control where principles of rock mechanics can be applied are discussed. Reference is made to early work in Europe, where systematic rock mechanics studies started in coal mines, as well as to the early work in the Canadian coal mines.During the past two decades, considerable theoretical and experimental knowledge, pursued both in the laboratory and in the field, has accumulated throughout the world, but the state of the science still does not permit application of substantiated theory such as is found in the design of above-ground structures, largely because of the complexity of the rocks. The mining engineer, as oppm1ed to the civil engineer, is constantly faced by exposures of new ground that is often subject to unpredictable discontinuities. However, the rationale already developed by rock mechanics principles and experimentation provides concepts and information that may be useful in selecting mining layouts. These concepts and existing measuring techniques can also assist ground control as mining progresses.Many of the bedded deposits, much as coals and evaporites, have pronounced deformation properties, and there are limitations in making stress measurements within short distances of mine openings or extraction areas. On the other hand, the measurement of movement of the hanging wall (roof) and footwall (floor) of roadways and extraction faces, as well as the sides of pillars, provides a most useful tool in assessing ground stability.This paper is to be regarded as a brief progress report with particular reference to Canadian applications of rock mechanics to bedded deposits."

Jan 1, 1968

By E. A. Davies, Trevor T. Jones

"Aspects of materials, design and operation of suspension equipment is dealt with, hazard, fatigue and special metallurgical properties of certain steels to resist are described, as is the effect of temperature in service modifying the properties of some steels to resist stress concentration and propagation of cracks.The influence of steady impact and fatigue loading and its results are described. Control of manufacture including nondestructive testing is outlined and acceptance parameters and strength calculations are given. Quality requirements and control in manufacture are outlined. A short description of the overwind detaching hook, together with illustrations of the operation of detachment are presented.MaterialsWinding engine ratings of 8000 h .p. and large capacity shafts 2000 m in depth (4000 m depths have already been reached and it may be necessary to go to 6000 m) and up to ten conveyances are not uncommon today. Loads of 100 or even 200 tons hoisted at low speeds are possible within the near future. Some of these appliances are designed to protect lives and installations in hazardous conditions when, due to human or mechanical fault, a malfunction occurs in the system. In addition, such equipment includes suspension gear of various kinds designed to anchor and apply high mechanical tensions to numerous steel ropes installed in shafts necessary either for the safe passage of conveyances or for balancing purposes when heavy loads are in motion.No unique metallurgical problems are presented in underground mining operations, but they have two special characteristics that influence the metallurgical aspects of the de sign of suspension gear and other equipment concerned in the transport of men and materials. (1) Any uncontrolled release of energy caused by the unexpected failure of a component is more likely to injure personnel and cause costly damage to installations in the narrow confines of an underground mine shaft. (2) Some mechanical equipment in mines, tends to be overloaded in service and suffer plastic distortion."

Jan 1, 1987

By Lawrence Devon Smith

"This paper examines the impact of the various assumptions that go into an economic evaluation, and shows how these can be combined to show an exciting result that may not really exist. An example of an embellished case (the kind that one frequently sees when projects are being promoted) is developed and the cumulative impact is analysed to show the actual project underneath. The paper also points out some areas to watch for overly optimistic assumptions such as prices, inflation, and debt. The concept of a ""bare bones"" base case is proposed (constant metal prices, constant dollars, no inflation, no debt, no interest, on a project basis, after tax) as a common reference point.As well, the discount rate is examined as a fundamental means of reflecting risk in discounted cash flow evaluations. Current industry practice is discussed, and a methodology for the analysis of risk levels is proposed that assesses the constituent components of the discount rate: real interest, mineral project risks, and country risk.INTRODUCTIONOften, the first time that all of the technical and economic data for a mineral project comes together in one place is when the economic evaluation is developed. This typically happens when work on the project has progressed to a sufficient level of detail that the effort to produce a year-by-year cash flow is justified, usually at the pre-feasibility or feasibility study stage. The data involved will include:• production; tonnes waste and ore mined, ore grade, mining recovery, metallurgical recovery, metal sold• revenue; metal price, smelting & refining charges, marketing costs• operating Costs; mining, milling, administration, fees, royalties• capital Costs; exploration, development, construction, indirect costs (engineering, management), contingencies, start-up, inventories, working capital, replacement and sustaining capital, closure costs• taxes and royalties• exclusions; depreciation (this is not a cash item), sunk costs (only costs going forward)."

Jan 1, 2003

By B. Kruger

The Dundee Precious Metals Tsumeb Smelter has evolved over the last decade to meet the challenges and opportunities brought about by a changing copper concentrate market, technological advances, environmental legislation as well as social and political changes. The paper discusses some of the challenges, successes and lessons learnt through the expansion and modernization of its smelter complex. It considers the details and impact of the transition from slag granulation to that of slag slow cooling as well as the improvement program that was implemented to more than double the refractory campaign life of the Ausmelt furnace from around 6–9 months to 15–18 months. In addition, given the evolving world we live in, it considers the challenges that the smelter faces today, not the least of it being how to remain relevant in an age of digital and other 4th Industrial Revolution disruptions. INTRODUCTION Dundee Precious Metals Tsumeb (DPMT) Smelter is located just outside the town of Tsumeb, in the Oshikoto region of Namibia. It is the largest town in the region with a population of approximately 45,000. The smelter was built in the early 1960s to treat concentrate from the nearby Tsumeb copper mines. Construction of the site was completed in 1962 and the smelter was officially commissioned in 1963 by Tsumeb Corporation Limited (TCL). At the time the smelter consisted of a lead section (including a refinery), a copper section and plants that produced cadmium, sodium antimonite and arsenic trioxide. Production commenced in early 1964, with 3,500 tonnes of copper and 6,000 tonnes of lead being produced per month. TCL was acquired by Gold Fields South Africa in 1988, and a few years later the lead section was shut down due to reduced lead content of the mined ore. In mid-1996, all mining and smelting operations were halted due to labour strikes. Ongopolo Mining and Processing Limited (OMPL) re-opened the mines and the smelter in 2000, only operating the copper section of the smelter. At the end of 2008, all mining operations were halted by the new owner of OMPL, Weatherly Mining International, while the smelter continued to operate. The closure of the Weatherly owned mines in Namibia, the primary feed source to the Tsumeb Smelter, meant that the smelter had to transition its business model from operating as a ‘captive smelter’ to that of a ‘toll smelter’. Its Ausmelt Top Submerged Lance (TSL) smelting technology and various ancillary plants made it especially suitable for accepting and treating complex concentrates that were available on the global market.

Jan 1, 2019

By N. Pajunen, R. Mäkikoskela

"The current state of environment has been achieved by acting linearly. At the same time, we know that transition towards circular economy cannot be made the same way that we have used to, trusting only a market economy and economic growth. Environmental improvements have been promoted, some progress has been made, but major steps towards sustainability have not been taken. Industry is now facing significant change, from process related environmental thinking to product-based environmental thinking.Engineers make decisions which have lifelong influence and even longer on environment and society. Material engineers in case of saving natural resources and increasing material cycle, have an important role to play in the transition towards sustainability. Best knowledge of minerals and materials is in the material development phase. If we want to increase the cycle of different materials, it is vital to make decisions towards circular economy in early phase of product´s life cycle.The target of this study is to promote circular economy; to increase material efficiency; to save natural resources; and to extend product lifecycles in process industry via product design and material development. In this study we have a new kind of cooperation. We combine two disciplines, engineering science and fine arts. We promote sustainability via breaking out the silos. We bring the cyclic artistic thinking into engineering science and environmental research. The new research combination makes the existing information visible in a new way, and it will change attitudes and ways to act by means other than traditional linear rationality.We have tested the new working method via the industrial case study with the chosen product: the sandwich panel of construction industry. The target of the study was to create something new from the chosen product with artistic thinking. The working method will be presented in this paper."

Jan 1, 2016

By D. M. Baird

ABSTRACT A revised stratigraphic section of Carboniferous rocks which occupy about 700 square miles in southwestern Newfoundland is presented. Gypsum, which outcrops at thirty-five different localities, is found to belong to four principal zones in the section. The newly mapped structure of the region makes the otherwise random occurrences of gypsum appear as systematic outcroppings of the four zones which follow the regional structure. Details of several occurrences are given and those most advantageous for exploitation are pointed out. INTRODUCTION ROCKS of Carboniferous age occupy an area of about 700 square miles in southwestern Newfoundland. They occur in a belt, from 5 to 15 miles wide, which extends from the head of St. Georges bay southwestward for 65 miles to the mouth of Little Codroy river (see Figure 1). Several hundred feet of Pennsylvanian rocks overlie rocks of Mississippian age, which are at least 12,000 feet thick. The rocks of the Carboniferous section of Newfoundland are very similar to those of Nova Scotia and represent a northeastward continuation of the same palaeophysiographic conditions. Mississippian measures of Windsor equivalence include thick gypsum deposits which outcrop at many places and which extend under large areas as indicated by sink-holes and by structural considerations.

Jan 1, 1951

By J. W. Meier, J. O. Edwards, R. C. Bell

"IntroductionTHE DIE CASTING industry .as we know it today is the direct result of the invention and development of die casting machines during the nineteenth century and of reliable alloys in the twentieth. The early machines were designed to cast low melting point metals such as lead .and tin, and their alloys.It was inevitable that, as these die castings were put into service, the demand should arise for stronger materials. Zinc alloys, often containing lead, tin, copper, and aluminum as major constituents, were relatively easy to cast and stronger than the lead and tin alloys. However, it became apparent after a number of years that these zinc alloys tended to become brittle, distort, and corrode, particularly if kept in warm, humid atmospheres. Thus, considerable quantities of zinc-base .alloys were in use before the trouble was realized and effective measures could .be taken to determine the cause of the instability.The deleterious effect of certain metallic impurities on the properties of zinc •die casting .alloys has now been known for about thirty years. Brauer .and Peirce, and, later, other research workers of the New Jersey Zinc Company such as Anderson and Werley, discovered the pronouned effect of lead, cadmium, and tin on the stability of zinc-alloys."

Jan 1, 1952

By L. Paulino, C. E. Zangiacomi, J. Yamamoto

"This paper presents the learning from Alcoa Po9os de Caldas Smelter in Brazil, after several energy restrictions resulting from the failures of three rectifier units at its power switchyard. Starting on December 27th, fuses and diodes failed in three rectifier units of Potline #1, causing a long and dangerous power interruption. Even after current was reestablished, amperage was only 70% of the line target leading to a bath freezing process that lasted for around 48 hours. The process engineering team played with several potroom parameters as pot resistance, bath and metal levels, alumina feeding and bath chemistry in an attempt to minimize impact on the potline metal output and energy consumption. As it will be illustrated, the first battle was to keep the pots running on a ""survival"" approach. After that, several changes took place on the procedures used to run at reduced current which were considered rather successful. Finally, some recommendations will be given to foresee and prevent transformers and rectifiers from undesirable failures."

Jan 1, 2006

By T. N. MacAuley

"The Ingerbelle and Copper Mountain deposits are located near Princeton in southern British Columbia. They are owned by Newmont Mining Corporation's wholly owned subsidiary, Similkameen Mining Company Ltd. The property includes the Copper Mountain mine, a former producer. Ore reserves recoverable by open-pit mining are estimated to be 76 million tons containing 0.53% copper. Production commenced during 1972 at a rate in excess of designed capacity (15,000 tpd). All of the known major copper deposits in this area lie in a 14,000- by 3,500-foot belt of Triassic volcanics (Nicola Group) that is situated between a well-defined syenitemonzonite- diorite stock on the south and a variable intrusive complex on the north. The Nicola rocks consist of andesitic tuffs and agglomerates with lesser amounts of flows and some lensy siltstone layers. The orebodies are essentially disseminated sulphide deposits, although fracture-fillings are also important in many areas. Total sulphide content is usually less than 5%. At lngerbelle, and at Pit 2 and most of Pit 1 at Copper Mountain, the sulphides are chalcopyrite-pyrite. In part of Pit 1 and most of the former underground mine they are chalcopyrite-bornite. At lngerbelle the predominant alteration associated with mineralization is a pale greenish-gray bleaching of the dark andesitic rocks. This has been identified as albitization, with lesser amounts of epidote, chlorite, biotite, scapolite and calcite. This bleaching is plentiful at Pit 2, but K-feldspathization is also evident here. These orebodies can better be classified with pyrometasomatic deposits than with typical porphyry coppers. Their relationship to intrusives, the probably extensive metasomatic replacements, the evidence of pneumatolytic activity, the formation and redistribution of magnetite, and the irregular distribution of mineralization are all characteristic of this class. Deep-seated faults probably acted as channelways for mineralization; fracturing, faulting and rock contacts influenced ore localization in detail."

Jan 1, 1973

By Graham Sim

Agenda ?The Water Challenge ?Examples from Three Case Studies ?Mine Drainage, 99% recovery ?Mine Drainage, 80% recovery ?Road Dust Control ?Technology Development ? Conclusion Global water challenges Assuring sustainable quantity Improving water quality Reducing energy consumption

May 1, 2011

By Warwick Bullen

A hypothetical economic model has been developed for diamond projects in the Canadian Arctic using data from recent exploration and mining projects. The model reflects economic conditions as it applies to the diamond mining industry in the Canadian Arctic at the present time. The economic model captures pre-production expenditures, production data, and post-production costs. Before- and after-tax cash flows are derived from the data along with the relevant economic criteria. From the corporate perspective, the model provides guidance as to the minimum size and/or in-situ value per tonne requirements of targets being sought in order to ensure economic success and probable exploration and development expenditures. From the government perspective, the model provides an indication of income and mining tax revenues that can be expected from a particular diamond project. The model shows, on average, diamond projects in the Canadian Arctic are expensive to explore for and develop, but are economically robust. They generate great economic return for mining companies and significant amounts of tax revenue for governments. The fact that diamonds can be transported directly from the mine site by air makes them particularly attractive targets for mining companies that operate in the Canadian Arctic.

Apr 1, 2005

By J. Lapointe, S. Leger, D. Proulx

"Une méthode non-électrolytique est utilisée pour plaquer au cuivre la fibre d'amiante chrysotite. En variant les paramètres de placage du bain, on détermine les conditions optimales du taux de deposition du cuivre . Une analyse par diffraction aux rayons-X permet une comp araison relative des résultats de placage et de précipitation d'oxyde cuivreux dans Ie bain. Le traitement de placage a pour but d'assurer une adhésion suffisante de la fibre dans une matrice métallique Iors de la fabrication éventuelle de materiaux composites.IntroductionCette communication se veut un compte-rendu de nos travaux sur Ie placage au cuivre de la fibre d'amiante chrysotile, en vue de I'incorporer éventuellernent dans une matrice métallique. La fibre d'amiante est constituée de fib rilles élementaires d'un diamètre d'environ 0.02 um qui ont une résistance en tension de I'ordre de celie de la fibre de verre ou de carbone(1). Pour être efficace, la fibre de renf'ort d'un matériau composite doit d'une part, avo ir des propriétés mécaniques intrinsèques élevées, et d'autre part, adhérer solidement â la matrice pour que Ie transfert de charge s'effectue sans qu'il y ait décohésion entre les composantes du matériau.La fibre d'amiante étant naturellement soyeuse, il faut la traiter superficiellement pour que l'adhésion avec la matrice soit suffisante. Ainsi, on recouvre la fibre de phénol-formaldéhyde(2) ou de silane(3) lorsqu'elle est employée avec une matrice polymere. Dans Ie cas d'une matrice métallique, ces dépôts organiques ne peuvent resister aux températures de mise en oeuvre, d'où l'intérêt de plaquer les fibres par un dépôt métallique.Dans cette étude, nous rapportons les résultats relatifs à la methode utilisée pour plaquer au cuivre la fibre d'amiante chrysotile. Une analyse par diffraction aux rayons-X permet de comparer les différentes conditions de placage non-électrolytique."

Jan 1, 1985

By E. A. Rychkun

"For the last 700years of recorded economic history, man has been subjected to alternating inflationary and deflationary patterns. Through this period of time, a severe deflationary pattern has developed approximately every 55 years, creating 12recordable occurrences. Through the last two centuries, this severe deflationary phenomenon has come to be known as a depression. As these depressions have repeated themselves regularly, they are cyclic. This in turn leads to the question of whether the 13th cycle will also repeat itself in the form of a depression. As this cycle is now 51 years old, we must consider the possibility at about 1984.In analyzing a 700-year record of consumer prices in Southern England, the 55-year cycle appears to vary in shape and intensity. This varying phenomenon is due to the effect of longer cycles upon which each one ""rides "". Because each cycle effectively rides on the next largest, which in turn rides on the next largest and so on, the combined measured effect of all cycles together at any point in time is always unique. This means that anyone cycle can never repeat itself in an exact identical manner. The combined effect therefore is what we observe in the form of prices and, as cycles interact, variations in deflation are produced . The ""science"" of economics attempts to quantify and develop theory on situations which are never identical and hence can be conservatively classified as a useless predictive tool.This means that more unconventional approaches may be required to predict our economic future. In looking at previous depression cycles, it is possible to recognize similarities in human behaviour patterns and hence the resulting economic movements. These behaviour patterns create major events or influencing factors which set the scene for a major deflationary condition. The way in which these factors occur, however, is not predictable. As more and more of these similar events are identified in each cycle, we can increase our confidence on the probability of the last event occurring (a depression). By also unravelling the set of larger cycles, we can determine the potential combined effect at any point in the future.This paper presents a system of cycles ranging from 800 years to 3 years which appear to operate in our economic system. By so doing, a long-term projection into the next century can be made. Finally, the paper deals with the main controlling similarities within the depression cycle, to show that a comparison with our current cycle implies that a major deflationary collapse in the mid 1980's is virtualy inevitable."

Jan 1, 1980