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By Royston Colbourne

Objectives Of Presentation - Identify specific risks - A fresh look at risk - Provide a moment reflection on risk - Open discussion on risk A route to solution and advanced thinking.

May 1, 2010

By R. A. Halatchev

A risk model for assessment of the uncertainty in the forecasts of the planned profit is developed. It is based on the selling price of the metal recovered from the ore and the production per shift of the excavators. These two critical variables characterise the economic and technical aspects of the mining venture. Time-series methodology is used to describe the behaviour of the economic variable, which improves the adequacy of the modelling. A hypothetical open-pit gold mine is used to illustrate the application of the model. Results obtained show that the model is a good alternative to sensitivity analysis in taking account of the stochastic character of the price of the metal recovered from the excavated ore and the production per shift of the excavators used. The model can be extended by the inclusion of new variables that have a probabilistic nature

Dec 1, 1996

By P. Sander, M. Spiegl, J. Reilly, A. Van Droogenbroeck

Although the outdated idea of calculating risk as the deterministic product of its likelihood and impact is not entirely a thing of the past, a multitude of organizations have adopted the usage of probabilistic methods for risk analysis, as they better reflect the inherent uncertainty of cost and risk estimates with ranges. But are these advancements sufficient in a complex environment such as tunnelling projects, where inadequate modelling of cost and risk can result in estimate discrepancies that run into millions of dollars? This paper explores two advanced probabilistic modelling techniques for tunnelling projects. The first one demonstrates how the cost and schedule uncertainty related to changes in excavation and support classes can be modelled with correlated variables. The second example models the risk related to explosive ordnance clearance on construction sites using a probabilistic event tree.

Dec 1, 2022

By John Gamble

This paper summarizes the weight of epidemiological evidence to evaluate the hypothesis that asbestos exposure is causally associated with increased risk of gastrointestinal (GI) cancers as suggested by Selikoff in an early study of insulation workers. This review looks at populations that develop GI cancers, namely stomach, colorectal, colon and rectal. Guidelines for assessing causality are strength of association, biological gradient and consistency of the associations. Exposure?response (E?R) was evaluated using three methods to estimate exposure. Rate Ratios (RRs) for lung cancer and percent of mesothelioma are used as surrogate measures of asbestos exposure for all the cohorts of exposed workers. Quantitative or semi-quantitative estimates of cumulative exposure to asbestos were also used to assess E?R trends and were compared to E?R trends for lung cancer and mesothelioma in individual studies. Surrogate measures are important since there are few individual studies that have assessed E?R. None of the various methods to estimate asbestos exposure yielded consistent E?R trends and the strength of the associations were consistently weak or non-existent for the four types of GI cancers. The epidemiological evidence detracts from the hypothesis that occupational asbestos exposure increases the risk of stomach, colorectal, colon, and rectal cancer. Findings are briefly summarized below. © 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Asbestos; Colon cancer; Colorectal cancer; Gastrointestinal cancers; Ingestion; Lung cancer; Mesothelioma; Rectal cancer; Review; Stomach cancer

Jan 1, 2007

By Enrique Rubio

Mine planning is the discipline of mining engineering that transforms geological resources into the best productive business for the owner. The production schedule is the best reflection of the company's business plan, which reflects the strategic, tactical and operational objectives to reach the defined production targets subject to the restrictions imposed by the mineral resource, by access to capital, medium environmental, market, technology and others. Traditionally the process of mine planning has been carried out through multiple steps generally disjointed and not with a clear connection with the ultimate goal that is to carry out a mining business.

Sep 1, 2017

By K. Bounou, K. Komnitsas

"Risk quantification may be used as a sustainable development index in the mining industry, since it encompasses both economic and social factors. In addition, it may assist in the development of a framework, which is also indirectly related to sustainable development, to prevent accidents and improve health and safety standards. However, risk quantification in the mineral sector involves diverse activities and is considered a very difficult task. Although statistical data report accident severity rates, incident rates and accident frequency rates, none of these allow for accurate risk calculations. In this paper, two risk calculation formulas, which may be used to quantify risk, as well as to identify hazardous activities in a workplace, are proposed. Numerical examples are given based on statistical data available through the MSHA database. Also a combination of a decision/fault/event tree that allows risk quantification is presented."

Jan 1, 2005

By Coskun B

The classification of selective mining units (SMU's) and the assignment of grades to those classified SMU's are very important in open pit mining, especially for precious metal mining. During ore control planning, the classification of mineral

Jan 1, 1998

By A. Yazadni-Chamzini

Risk ranking of projects is one of the importance parts of the complicated risk management procedure. Recognizing the riskiest criteria enable the managers to plan for risk reduction. The first stage for meeting this aim is defining the risky parameters and then working to establish order between them. There are variety methods for risk ranking. The ELECTRE method is one of the best among the multi criteria decision making methods. In this paper with implementing the fuzzy ELECTRE, The risky criteria in the Tehran Subway project are being ranked. The result of this research presents damage and accident of machineries as well as the lack of labor and equipment safety is located in the first order. Collapse factors and local prices are in second rank. Also wrong design, pollution, urban facilities damageable are in third to fifth respectively. Delay and ? are located in the last positions.

Jan 1, 2012

By Salam Moubarak, Thomas Camus

"INTRODUCTION Since the introduction, several decades ago, of the first concepts of tunnel boring machines (TBMs), the unremitting increase of mechanized and automated tasks and the reduction of manual tasks carried out by human operators have gone hand in hand with the continuous improvement of these machines. In the present state of TBMs, the replacement of worn cutting tools is a critical, tedious, and dangerous manual operation especially for earth pressure balanced (EPB) and slurry TBMs. For such pressurized TBMs, hyperbaric interventions are used. They consist in replacing the pressurized soil/mud inside the chamber with compressed air that balances the face pressure. The operators can then ""dive"" into the chamber; however, because the human body cannot naturally undergo pressure changes, they have to follow strict procedures that have been developed for subsea divers, based on decompression stops. Indeed such interventions are actually quite often performed by professional deep-sea divers. The pressurized TBMS are consequently equipped with a manlock that allows for the required compression and decompression cycles. Hyperbaric interventions increase risk to the operators and require long decompression procedures that increase the TBM idle time and reduce its efficiency. At higher pressures, over 3.5 bar (ITA Report No 10, 2011), specific equipment and special gas mixes and/or saturation techniques are recommended (Lamont, 2012). Such procedures are even more expensive and time consuming although the duration of work in the pressurized area can be very limited for health and safety reasons. Contractors are therefore increasingly interested in automating these operations to reduce the risks to human workers and improve the TBMs performance. Moreover, the demand for new, ambitious and challenging tunneling projects (very deep, high pressure boring) is ever increasing, but the supply of suitable TBMs is limited and the risk from working in the hyperbaric environments becomes increasingly unacceptable. Impact of hyperbaric interventions The UK Health & Safety Executive has analyzed the consequences of working in intermediate pressure compressed air. The retrospective study of decompression illness (DCI) indicated that at certain pressures its incidence was around 2% of all exposures. More worryingly it showed that over 20% of the exposures commonly undertaken by shift workers in tunneling (those over 1 bar pressure for 4 hours or more) resulted in DCI. It was concluded that on some contracts up to 50% of shift production workers experienced DCI at some time during the contract, a situation which was considered to be wholly unacceptable (Lamont, 2006)."

Jan 1, 2016

By David J. Hatem

Tunnels and underground projects are inherently more risky than vertical projects, which typically utilize more conventional design and construction approaches and are undertaken in the context of relatively ascertained and defined conditions. On tunnel and under-ground projects, there are a host of special risk factors, including unknowns and uncertainties as to the physical and behavioral characteristics of the ground, the inextricable interdependence and necessary interaction of design decisions and construction means and methods with those ground conditions as well as the manner in which risks are allocated among project participants for un-anticipated subsurface conditions. Public-private partnerships (PPP) projects, in their own respects (and independent of any major subsurface component), pose significant risk for all private sector participants. The main driver of owners to procure projects using PPP is financial, as often all, or substantially all, of the design and construction risk are transferred to the private sector consortium, including the design-build (D-B) team. For a concerning number of those public owners, that risk transfer regime includes rather onerous and aggressive contractual terms that allocate to the private sector participants substantially all risks associated with the encountering of unanticipated subsurface conditions. These aggressive risk allocation provisions, while directly impacting project participants upstream of the consulting engineer, have an indirect and corresponding risk intensifying effect upon consulting engineer professional liability exposure. There are many factors that result in increased professional liability exposure for consulting engineers involved in PPP projects. The more prominent and prevalent of those factors fall into the following categories:

By Samuel Frimpong

Green house gases have become a major concern within the international community over the last two decades due to their potential link to global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the principal greenhouse gas. In the Kyoto Agreement, Canada has committed to reduce emissions by 6 % below 1990 levels by 2012. This presents a serious economic challenge to Canada and Alberta. Over the next decade, oil sands production expansion, population and industry growth and energy demand will increase CO2 emissions. Current and future CO2 emissions and their economic implications in Alberta will be critical in formulating a comprehensive and balanced policy for dealing with concerns in this area. Disposal of carbon dioxide (CO2) in land aquifers is a potentially viable option for Alberta in dealing with long-term CO2 emissions. Studies have confirmed the existence of appropriate aquifers in the Alberta Basin for CO2 storage over a long geological period. Carbon dioxide is an ideal candidate for aquifer disposal because of its high density and solubility in water at relatively high pressures. In this study, the authors develop a computer simulation model of a scaled aquifer disposal system. The scaled model consists of an injector well, aquifer environment with dominant Ca++ and Mg++ cations. Liquefied CO2 is injected at an appropriate pressure and concentration through an injector well model. The injected CO2 migrates from the point of contact between the injector well and the aquifer domain to the main regime of the latter. The rate of migration is a function of porosity, permeability, cations, aquifer fluid flow regime and CO2 injected pressure. These models are validated using flue gas data from the 546 MW Wabamum Power Plant in Alberta. The total energy requirements for aquifer CO2 disposal system are distributed between a minimum of 105 MW and a maximum of 172 MW, with a mean of 132 MW and a coefficient of variation of 10%. The results show that there is significant variability in all the energy requirements for the CO2 disposal system. The total energy requirements for the disposal system as a fraction of the total power generated by the Wabamum plant of 546 MW could be between 0.19 and 0.32. This is a very significant energy requirement and thorough analysis must be carried out to reduce this variability and energy requirements.

May 1, 2001

By Mark Kennedy, Allan MacRae, Cameron Hams

New technology projects, particularly those involving first-of-a-kind metallurgical facilities, have a poor track record of achieving their overall financial targets, as they incorporate technological risks in addition to normal project risks. Traditional project management tools focus on risk from concept development through implementation, but typically fail to address the additional risks associated with a new technology project including slow start-up, slow ramp-up, and failure to achieve design performance (quality or throughput). These additional risks affect future cash flows produced by the project and hence its value, typically measured as net present value (NPV) or internal rate of return (IRR). Common accounting practice is to reduce the present value of future cash flows by applying a chosen discount rate, often reflecting the corporation's cost of capital. This discount rate does not contain an allowance for technological risk, which is often underestimated or misunderstood by both the financial and engineering project managers. This paper will focus on the topic of project risk and new technology, and how these play a role in the probability of achieving the predicted future cash flows. By properly addressing technological risk in the form of risk-weighted returns, marginal projects can be prevented from proceeding, while sound projects can be given the additional time and resources required to achieve the optimal level of front-end-loading (the level which returns the maximum risk-weighted net present value). A simple set of mathematical tools should enable engineers and financial professionals to establish a common level of understanding, thereby leading to a more accurate assessment whether a new technology project is ready to pass through its next level of approvals.

Jan 1, 2011

By Mark Kennedy

New technology projects, particularly those involving first-of-a-kind metallurgical facilities, have a poor track record of achieving their overall financial targets, as they incorporate technological risks in addition to normal project risks. Traditional project management tools focus on risk from concept development through implementation, but typically fail to address the additional risks associated with a new technology project including slow start-up, slow ramp-up, and failure to achieve design performance (quality or throughput). These additional risks affect future cash flows produced by the project and hence its value, typically measured as net present value (NPV) or internal rate of return (IRR). Common accounting practice is to reduce the present value of future cash flows by applying a chosen discount rate, often reflecting the corporation?s cost of capital. This discount rate does not contain an allowance for technological risk, which is often underestimated or misunderstood by both the financial and engineering project managers. This paper will focus on the topic of project risk and new technology, and how these play a role in the probability of achieving the predicted future cash flows. By properly addressing technological risk in the form of risk-weighted returns, marginal projects can be prevented from proceeding, while sound projects can be given the additional time and resources required to achieve the optimal level of front-end-loading (the level which returns the maximum risk-weighted net present value). A simple set of mathematical tools should enable engineers and financial professionals to establish a common level of understanding, thereby leading to a more accurate assessment whether a new technology project is ready to pass through its next level of approvals.

Jan 1, 2013

Geotechnical practice combines the site engineering geological model with engineering design and operations to control risk. The responsibility of the geotechnical professional is to present relevant engineering geological information to an engineer to effectively impact an outcome. Return is enhanced by understanding expected operating and capital cost due to ground conditions.   Risk is effectively communicated by a successful geotechnical practitioner. In a mining environment the need is to assess ground conditions accurately and quickly, and to effectively communicate expected ground response due to mining. A good engineering geological model includes a description of geotechnical engineering parameters to design assuming reasonable expected soil, rock and water conditions. Pit slopes are steepened, stope spans widened and waste foundations and land forms are constructed all under geotechnical control.   The responsibility of the geotechnical professional is to collect, assess and disseminate relative engineering geological information. The geotechnical professional is a person advising on ground related engineering, and generally operates within geology and engineering end members.   Return is better assessed on an understanding of ground cost. In operations the goal is to meet production at lower cost. In evaluation, regional and exploration geology, mine design and expected operational factors influence expected cost and project return. Return allows companies to meet shareholder expectations, attract equity to develop and add value to the community.   This paper presents a discussion with some examples to present an approach and design philosophy for geotechnical practice in the mining industry.

Jan 1, 2004

By M Barker, H Li

The total number of tailings accidents has reduced from over 50/decade in the 1960s-1980s to less than 30/decade in the 2000s to 2010s. However, the rate of significant tailings dam failures has not been reduced. The significant tailings dam failures the mining industry experienced in the recent history include: Merriespruit, South Africa, 1994; Los Frails, Spain, 1998; Kolontár, Hungry, 2010; Mount Polley, Canada, 2014; and Samarco, Brazil, 2015. The conventional Factor of Safety approach itself may not be enough to further reduce the rate of significant tailings failures due to its limitations such as uncertainty. For example, the same factor of safety could have a vast range of annual probability of failure for different tailings dams, and insufficient consideration of failure consequence. This paper presents a risk based approach for design with the objective being to minimise tailings dam failures, especially those significant tailings failures with high consequence and low probability. This approach includes risk based design and risk management using bowtie tools. In the risk based design, quantitative analysis will be used to estimate the annual probability of failure and the tolerable failure criteria is linked to the consequence category. Bowtie analyses will be used to understand hazards and risks and identify and select independent controls that are effective in preventing and mitigating catastrophic failures. In this paper, examples of risk based design and bowtie analyses are presented and discussed. CITATION:Li, H and Barker, M, 2018. Risk-based approach for minimising tailings dam failures, in Proceedings Mine Waste and Tailings Stewardship Conference 2018, pp 397–414 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Jul 23, 2018

By P. A. Davies

Paper presented at the conference: Risk assessment in the extractive industries, held in Exeter, UK, 23-24 March 1994, and first published London: IMM, 1994, preprint volume, 11pp., 15 refs. Hazards such as vibration, dust emission and fragment projection can result in an area called the Danger Zone being set around a blasting site. Traditionally Danger Zones have been set solely on the basis of consequences (e.g. based on the maximum distance of rock projection or expected ground vibration plus a defined safety margin). Advances in risk assessment and its growing acceptance as a safety management tool have led to the setting of Danger Zones based on both consequences and frequency of occurrence. This allows distances to be optimised on the basis of acceptable risk levels rather than the potential consequences of infrequent events. The setting of a flyrock Danger Zone is used to demonstrate a risk-based approach compared with a traditional consequence approach

Aug 1, 1995

By Reinhard Gertl, Maximilian Weithaler, Harald Kammerer, Juan Pablo Muñoz, Juan-Carlos Rueda

The Guillermo Gaviria Echeverri tunnel and its access roads project in Antioquia, Colombia is a mega infrastructure project that includes a road network with the longest tunnel in Latin America and several short tunnels, the latter being the focus of this study. The design of the project required careful consideration of several special factors, such as the tunnels’ steep slopes of up to 5%, high fire load of 100 MW, bidirectional operation, and short lengths that make it difficult to place ventilation equipment. The combination of all these parameters cause a challenging design problem for the ventilation systems and smoke control of the short tunnels. To address this challenge, a risk assessment study was conducted to support the design of a new and innovative ventilation strategy that deviates from relevant guidelines and standards, like the Austrian RVS [1][5][6] or the German EABT [8] in order to provide a customized solution for this particular project. This strategy resulted a cost-effective solution, that allowed a reduction in the number of required jet fans and at the same time reaches or reduces the risk level compared to traditional ventilation strategies.

Jun 13, 2023

By Samuel J. Gambino

Preliminary recommendations for the Upper Northwest Interceptor 1&2 specified installation of reinforced concrete pipe using pipe-jacking methods. However, a larger one-pass tunnel constructed using precast segmental lining would provide additional storage volume. The risk of encountering unexpected conditions or events and the resulting cost impacts could differ significantly for these two options. A probabilistic life-cycle cost analysis of these alternatives was performed. This paper discusses the construction alternatives considered, the risk assessment methodology used to evaluate these alternatives, the input parameters and risk factors used in this analysis, and the recommended project which is currently being constructed.

Jan 1, 2008

By Andreas Bienz

The safety of persons from accidental explosions and fires during manufacture, storage, transport etc. of explosives, pyrotechnics, propellants, firework and ammunition is most commonly assessed according to prescriptive rule-based approach: Safety is given when all requirements which are listed in numerous regulations and directives (such as e.g. safety distances, limited quantities, protective installations etc.) are complied with. Such a deterministic prescriptive rule-based approach is quite easy to apply but has got disadvantages, however: The actual state of safety in a specific case is not explicitly and quantitatively expressed, and it is not distinguished between the endangered individuals and the whole group. As a result, the effects of the safety measures cannot be measured. This is why uneconomical and in the worst case useless safety precautions cannot be avoided. In addition, waivers are difficult to negotiate, meaningful and sound arguments for pro and con being lacking.

Jan 1, 2007

By J E. Everett, F Grobler

This study considers realistic data for a planned open pit iron ore mine, but is applicable to any open pit situation. By interpolating drill hole data, grades are generated for a rectangular block model. Each blockÆs grade designation vector has components for each analyte (chemical element or compound) influencing ore value. Interpolation by means of geostatistical kriging leads to each block being assigned its expected value, and thus underestimates the overall grade variability. Alternatively, interpolation by means of conditional simulation is a method that implements random sampling from an infinite population of solutions. Each conditional simulation has appropriate overall grade variability, but estimating any blockÆs mean and variance requires sampling from multiple conditional simulations. For a block model, an ore/waste selection criterion maximises the expected tonnage at a target grade. This criterion is a linear composite of the grade components, with positive coefficients for the beneficial analyte (iron) and negative coefficients for the deleterious analytes (such as silica, alumina and phosphorus).Although conditional simulation gives the same expected grade as kriging for each block, the expected maximum tonnage of ore selectable at a target grade may differ from that obtainable from the kriged solution. We apply the linear composite selection criterion to each of 25 conditional simulations, as well as to the kriged block model. The resulting distribution of product tonnage is confirmed to have an expected tonnage that is over 20 per cent greater than that of the kriged model. The method also enables a selection probability to be computed for each block, and thus a probabilistic pit boundary distribution to be identified and used in mine planning. Proposed extensions will consider risk-based scheduling of the multiple selection solutions through minimisation of a derived æstress factorÆ and treating the mining process as an iterative system with actual or artificial ædepletionsÆ modelled in line with the mine plan, using the updated state (with new information) to re-evaluate the mine plan for subsequent periods.CITATION:Everett, J E and Grobler, F, 2013. Risk-based ore selection from conditionally simulated block models, in Proceedings Iron Ore 2013 , pp 149-156 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Aug 12, 2013