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By M. Mostert

Mining companies sponsor a range of non-core, corporate social responsibility projects to adhere to social and labour plans and environmental management prerequisites that form part of a mining licence application. Some companies go above and beyond such projects, sponsoring initiatives that generate renewable energy through solar power, wind energy, natural gas, etc. The challenge for these companies is to choose between a variety of projects to ensure maximum value, especially in times when the economic climate might be less favourable for such projects. The focus of this research was to analyse the concept of sustainability as it exists today, and to apply that to the triple bottom line accounting method in an attempt to quantify the sustainability of a project. Research was done on the methane burn-off project at Sibanye Gold?s Beatrix Mine to establish how such projects are planned and financed, and what impact they have on the triple bottom line of a company. The financial bottom line is, by definition, one that executives understand. This paper also proposes a quantitative method for defining the social and environmental bottom lines as well. By considering the financial, social, and environmental values, the study attempts to determine a monetary value for a sustainable renewable energy project. This monetary value can be compared to similar values obtained for other sustainable renewable energy projects under consideration. The research suggests that monetary value alone is not enough to base a sustainable decision on, and qualitative measures are suggested for use in conjunction with quantitative methods. The selection method proposed should assist the board of a mining company to choose the most sustainable option and the project that will add the greatest value to the company across all three bottom lines. It will also provide increased justification for such renewable energy projects, even in periods of harsh or uncertain economic climates.

Jan 1, 2014

By J. A. Luckmann

"SynopsisThe purpose of this paper is to introduce an innovative approach to risk management in surface mining operations, namely, positive risk. Traditionally, risk management focused on mitigating losses (negative). Positive risk, on the contrary, reverses the approach and focuses on exploiting a project’s inherent benefits (positive).The inability to accurately determine project objectives during the project planning phase and the failure to achieve those objectives during the execution phase is a major problem for any project management in the mining environment.The advance of computer aided design models for mine planning enables mining engineers to examine various options within a very short time. Employing positive risk management combined with drivers-based risk management when evaluating these options provides an ideal opportunity to investigate areas for improving the mining project’s profits. Furthermore, harnessing positive risk returns during the planning phase contributes immensely to the successful achievement of project objectives.Mining has inherent business risks, which can appear overwhelming when considering the risks associated with a mining project schedule, cost, and safety or resources, etc. The question is – how to manage risks in a surface mining environment, and what process methodologies, work methods, processes, and standards should be used when considering the surface mining risks. Applying the principles of positive risk management to manage surface mining risks is not only relevant, but definitely beneficial to mining projects and to the mining industry as a whole.It would be beneficial for risk managers and risk professionals to understand the roles of positive risk ‘drivers’, also known as ‘propitious attractors’. Identifying, analysing, estimating, and understanding the propitious attractors, their behaviour and their influence on project risk events helps considerably during the planning and execution phases. The theoretical and practical knowledge of both sides of the risk – the downside risk (negative risk) and upside risk (positive risk) – can add substantial value to any organization when downside risk is adequately mitigated and upside risk is beneficially exploited."

Jan 1, 2015

By D. Nyungu

Despite observations of spalling and damage of mine excavation wall rock in the Bushveld Complex (BC) over the passage of time, there have been very few time-dependent or creep tests carried out in South Africa on rock, particularly on BC rock types. The research described in this paper deals with the investigation of stress and strain conditions influencing spalling of wall rock in BC mine excavations, and the influence of time on the tensile strength of several BC rock types. Time-dependent laboratory testing of BC rocks was carried out in indirect tension. The results show that the magnitude of the tensile strength of BC rock types is approximately 5% of their uniaxial compressive strength magnitudes. The average long-term uniaxial compressive strength of the BC rocks, interpreted from the axial stress-volumetric strain graphs, is 56% of the UCS value. The long-term tensile strength is shown to be less than 70% of the normal tensile strength. Extension strains at tensile strength failure ranged between 0.16 and 0.21 millistrain. Values corresponding with the long-term tensile strength are less than 70% of this range, namely, 0.11 to 0.15 millistrain. These results represent new knowledge, since such rock testing and analysis does not appear to have been carried out previously on BC rock types. Elastic numerical modelling was carried out to illustrate the extents of tensile stress zones and extension zones around of typical BC mine excavations. The models showed that large zones of extension strain can occur around BC excavations, and that the magnitudes of the extension strain can substantially exceed the critical values determined from the laboratory testing. The implication of this is that there are substantial zones surrounding BC mine excavations that will be prone to time-dependent spalling conditions and perhaps more significant failure.

Jan 1, 2014

By D. F. Malan

This paper presents an overview of work conducted over several years to investigate the continuous stope closure profiles recorded in tabular excavations and the use of this data as a hazard indicator. In spite of the brittle nature of the rock, measurements in gold mines and intermediate depth platinum mines revealed a significant time-dependent closure component. Various approaches to simulate the time-dependent closure have been investigated. Viscoelastic theory is able to simulate the time-dependent closure behaviour, but there are subtle problems with the use of this theory as it cannot simulate the failure processes in the rock. To overcome these problems, continuum and discontinuum elasto-viscoplastic models were developed by the authors. Discontinuum models have the advantage of being able to simulate the creep behaviour of prominent discontinuities. Development of these models has led to useful insights into rock mass deformation and has made the numerical simulation of parameters, such as rate of mining, possible for the first time. A number of practical applications for the mining industry have been developed from this study. Among these are the delineation of geotechnical areas using closure data, use of the data as a hazard indicator and to give warning of large collapses in the platinum mines, identification of areas to be preconditioned in the gold mines, measurement of the effectiveness of preconditioning and improved da

Jan 1, 2007

Lonmin, earlier than any other primary platinum producer, had to deal with the concentrating and smelting of UG2-rich ores and concentrates respectively. Smelting was performed at a fairly modest scale compared to the company's industry peers in the platinum group metals (PGMs) industry, and was focused on smelting concentrates obtained through low mass pulls while still maintaining high recoveries at its concentrators. Lonmin gradually smelted larger quantities of UG2 concentrates. Initially two 2.3 MW Infurnco furnaces were commissioned in 1982, followed by three 5 MW circular 3-electrode Pyromet furnaces in 1991. Deep electrode immersions and moderately high hearth power densities were used in all the designs. Lonmin decided to continue with circular furnace technology when it planned its new high-intensity No. 1 Furnace. Neither Lonmin nor the technology supplier and EPCM company foresaw the challenges that scale-up would bring when applied to the smelting of UG2-rich concentrate blends. Superimposed on the high chromite content, was the low base-metal loading, mineralogical difficulties, and fine particle size that resulted from milling of all concentrates (especially UG2 and recycle materials within the smelter). Through a process of fundamental diagnoses of furnace run-outs and wear patterns observed during repairs, the main challenges operating this high-intensity furnace were identified as sulphur vapour corrosion of the copper coolers, uneven and unpredicted movements of refractory bricks with associated copper cooler lift and matte tapblock movement, the formation of three-phase 'mushy' zones, high refractory and taphole wear rates, uncertainty in matte level and associated insufficient matte buffer height, and high furnace operating temperatures. These factors seldom worked in isolation and will be explored in more detail in the paper. The variability in furnace feed characteristics led Lonmin to redesign Furnace No. 1, to invest in backup furnace capacity, and to invest in improved monitoring and control. These improvements consisted of online and high-frequency off-line monitoring of feed chemistry and mineralogy, online pressure monitoring of water-cooled circuits, an alternative matte liquid level measurement in the furnace, and electrode immersion estimation. Improvements were also made at the converters by installing and utilizing optical spectral analysis of the converter flame to characterize converter behaviour and achieve the desired iron end-point for white matte. This paper also briefly discusses the current and future expansion plans, as well as ancillary operations at the smelter such as flue-gas handling and materials handling.

Jan 1, 2011

Heavy mineral deposits are becoming more complex in terms of their compositional variation, particle mineralogy and size distributions, and present challenges for the operation of separation equipment to achieve the required grades and recoveries. Changes in equipment design and concepts potentially provide new opportunities for the beneficiation of heavy mineral sands deposits. The development of a framework for the fundamental understanding of separator performance issues is a first step to develop new machines. This paper will present a first step analysis of electro-static and magnetic separation machines with their application to real separation scenarios.

Jan 1, 2010

By Ö. Erdem

The investment decision making process in the insurance and finance industries is affected by new advances such as simulation techniques. These advances have improved the discounted cash flow method (DCF). In DCF, a dynamic and flexible model construction is not possible because it does not consider uncertain conditions. Each project should be evaluated taking into account the related uncertainties because the related uncertainties determine the characterization of the project. Related uncertainties can be processed in dynamic DCF, which is applicable to both financial and non-financial industries with different kind of uncertainties, such as power generation and petroleum projects. The dynamic DCF method can estimate net present value (NPV) while managing related project uncertainties with a simulation method like Monte Carlo Simulation. The simulation method is preferred because its output is unbiased. Therefore, a more realistic financial evaluation of the project can be concluded. In spite of the improvement of dynamic DCF, this project evaluation method is not used frequently in mining industry. However, the mining industry is ideally suited to this concept because it is highly dependent on estimations such as orebody size and ore grade. During the project evaluation stage, these uncertainties can be included with the dynamic DCF method. This study aims to contribute to increasing the usage of this method in mining projects. A copper reserve in Turkey is selected as a case study to apply uncertainty assessment for the evaluation of NPV.

Jan 1, 2012

By Noel C. Joughin

In making judgements on tolerable levels of risk in industry, and in all spheres of life, it needs to be understood that every action gives rise to risk. Without risk, nothing can be done. Without risk, no economy could be advanced. There is a strong tendency to emphasize the risk at work, but persons who are not working are exposed to a different set of risks. Often persons who are not working face greater risks than persons who are working. Simply, in being alive, one is exposed to the risk of an accident, the risk of contracting a disease, and an extremely diverse variety of other risks. According to the Health and Safety Executive of the UK, it is not possible to have a state of zero risk, because ?a state of zero risk does not exist?. Because zero risk is a physical impossibility, it is not possible to design for a state of zero risk in all engineering design. While the strategic target of achieving zero risk is laudable it does not provide any practical guidance to engineers as to what acceptable limits of risk should be. This causes a significant and real problem in the design for and the management of risk. Without meaningful guidelines, engineers, managers and the authorities often find themselves in disagreement. Thus, it has become essential to establish criteria for tolerable levels of risk and unacceptable levels of risk in order to design and manage engineering systems properly.

Jan 1, 2011

By M. Moseki

Paper written on project work carried out in partial fulfilment of B.Sc. (Eng.) (Metallurgy of Materials) degree This paper presents the research into melting of scrap for job creation purposes in rural areas. The research was done on behalf of Mine Recycling Services (MRS), the company that will implement the project. The project involves the research into available cost effective and easy to operate technology. The paper covers the experimental and theoretical work that was conducted. The results were used to determine the best equipment and method for melting and casting brass scrap.

Jan 1, 2002

By I. A. Mwamba

Titanium sponge, which is almost pure titanium, is extremely ductile and not easily processed into titanium powder. One method of producing powder is the hydride-dehydride (HDH) process, where titanium sponge is hydrided to form brittle titanium hydride (TiH2). Titanium hydride is easily milled to produce powder and is then dehydrided to form Ti powder. In this work, titanium hydride powder obtained from titanium sponge was used as a starting material for blending and mechanical alloying with elemental powders. Firstly, titanium hydride powder was blended with aluminium elemental powder to produce a homogenized powder, which was then compacted and sintered to produce powder metallurgy compacts. Secondly, titanium hydride powder was mechanically alloyed with aluminium elemental powder and then compacted. The mechanically alloyed powder was characterized in terms of particle size distribution, morphology and microstructure. In both blending and mechanical alloying, the green compacts were characterized by assessing the green density, while the sintered compacts were characterized by their sintered density, microstructure, and hardness. The two processes have resulted in the formation of TiA13 intermetallic compound. It was established that by simple mixing and homogenizing, titanium hydride can be used as a starting material to produce powder metallurgy components in which porosity is a benefit rather than a problem, much akin to metallic foams. From the products obtained in the TiHz-Al system, it appears that titanium hydride can be used as a precursor in mechanical alloying. However, the possible formation of complex hydrides may introduce detrimental properties, and needs to be further investigated. For the production of non-porous components, it would be advisable to dehydrogenate the TiH2 powder before milling i.e. producing titanium powder by the hydride-dehydride (HDH) method. Keywords Mechanical alloying, titanium hydride, titanium aluminide and blending

Jan 1, 2011

Beatrix Gold Mine, a deep-level gold mine in the Free State province of South Africa, has the highest methane emission rate of any gold mine in the country. Methane is emitted from underground sources intersected during mining operations and is liberated into the general mine atmosphere. The total methane emission rate for the mine is of the order of 16001/s and the South section of the mine emits approximately 10001/s of methane gas. The mine has a history of gas accumulations which have led to a number of underground explosions. Following the last explosion in 2001 and the subsequent investigation, a number of recommendations were made. Two of these were to consider extracting the underground mine methane to render the mine atmosphere safe, and to declare hazardous locations that require special operating procedures. A number of such workplaces have now been declared at the South section of the mine. Methane gas is a potent, explosive greenhouse gas whose contribution to global warming and climate change is 21 times higher than that of carbon dioxide. To reduce its inherent danger and to mitigate its global warming impact, a carbon credit project under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol has been developed and implemented, the aim being to capture and destroy the methane at Beatrix mine. The mine has constructed an extraction system to capture and extract 400 (Is of the methane. Percentage methane (per volume) of the gas intersected at source is 85%, with negligible concentrations of other hydrocarbons and water associated. The mine contracted the services of Group Five to design and construct the flare and ancillary equipment on surface, and Promethium Carbon was contracted to assist with the carbon¬-related aspects, approval framework, and administration of the project. A number of design and construction challenges had to be faced to extract and transport the gas effectively to the surface of the mine as the emitters are approximately 3 600 m away from the mine shaft at a depth of 860 m. Further considerations were the requirements for the type of column to be used to transport the methane gas, the pressure loss over the system, the safety systems needed to address the risk factors involved in the transport of the methane gas, and a suitable pumping system to extract the gas to the surface. The system operates under negative pressure provided by two blowers on surface delivering the emissions to a flare capable of burning off 450 8/s of methane gas. In this paper a number of benefits for the mine are discussed. These include, but are not limited to, the removal of approximately 55% of the total volume of methane gas from the general body of the air in the geographical areas of the mine where the methane gas is emitted into the atmosphere, and reducing the risk of methane-related incidents. A further benefit of this project is the mitigation of the global warming impact of the methane gas and the reduction of the mine's carbon footprint by approximately 25%. This project could also assist in alleviating the energy shortage being experienced in South Africa by means of the planned generation of 4 MW of electrical power, utilizing the methane gas, as a second phase of the project.

Jan 1, 2011

By F. Agterberg

In his 1978 monograph ‘Lognormal-de Wijsian Geostatistics for Ore Evaluation’, Professor Danie Krige emphasized the scale-independence of gold and uranium determinations in the Witwatersrand goldfields. It was later established in nonlinear process theory that the original model of de Wijs used by Krige was the earliest example of a multifractal generated by a multiplicative cascade process. Its end product is an assemblage of chemical element concentration values for blocks that are both lognormally distributed and spatially correlated. Variants of de Wijsian geostatistics had already been used by Professor Georges Matheron to explain Krige’s original formula for the relationship between the block variances as well as permanence of frequency distributions for element concentration in blocks of different sizes. Further extensions of this basic approach are concerned with modelling the three-parameter lognormal distribution, the ‘sampling error’, as well as the ‘nugget effect’ and ‘range’ in variogram modelling. This paper is mainly a review of recent multifractal theory, which throws new light on the original findings by Professor Krige on self-similarity of gold and uranium patterns at different scales for blocks of ore by (a) generalizing the original model of de Wijs to account for random cuts; (b) using an accelerated dispersion model to explain the appearance of a third parameter in the lognormal distribution of Witwatersrand gold determinations; and (c) considering that Krige’s sampling error is caused by shape differences between single ore sections and reef areas.

Jan 1, 2015

By S. Ngidi

Palabora Mining Company operates a low grade underground copper mine situated in the Limpopo Province, South Africa. Full production was first reached in May 2005 after a successful transition from an open pit operation to an underground block cave operation. The operation faces a number of technical and operational challenges, not the least being fragmentation of a competent rock mass and external dilution. The cave is subdivided into three main sectors being the east, the west and the central sectors. Caving was initiated from the weaker central sector, which has the majority of its drawpoints located directly under the open pit bottom currently filled with about 130 million tons of waste material from the pit wall failure incurred in 2004. About 48% of the ore reserve has to be extracted from the western sector, which has a much courser fragmentation compared to the other two sectors and only 25% from the central sector with the finest fragmentation. The main constraint during the ramp-up stage has been secondary breaking of drawpoint blockages. Ground-breaking secondary breaking and cave management initiatives and practices have made it possible for Palabora to realize and sustain high production rates.

Jan 1, 2007

By Pieter de Waal

The use of valuable minerals is a necessity to maintain a modern society. Not only the iron, aluminium, coal and oil that are used in large quantities, but also the uranium, copper, vanadium, tungsten, antimony and many others play an essential role in the bigger picture of our modern civilisation. Minerals occur in a form and in places determined by a long history starting at the dawn of creation. Over billions of years the elements have combined in wondrous combinations and structures. They have been broken up by massive explosions, movements in the earth's crust and erosion by wind and water. They have been restructured and recreated in even more configurations by the application of heat and pressure, leached by and exposed to new chemical compounds. The result is that most valuable minerals are found in impure form and mixed up with other, less useful waste material. 2. Mineral Beneficiation The processes used for the purification and enhancement of an ore, to satisfy the needs of downstream applications, are collectively referred to as mineral beneficiation. Mineral Beneficiation starts in the mine where only that portion of the ore, that can be economically processed, is selectively extracted. It may also include ore blending, to ensure a more consistent feed to the following stage of valuable mineral recovery. The next stage in mineral beneficiation is the liberation of the valuable minerals from the gangue. This is achieved by blasting, crushing, milling and grinding down to an adequately fine grain size to facilitate good separation. Separation can be achieved by a variety of different techniques. ?Screening coarse from fine particles is an easy method if the valuable mineral is dominant in a certain screen fraction. ?Magnetic separators can differentiate minerals on the basis of their difference in magnetic susceptibility. ? Electrostatic separators differentiate on the basis of electrical conductivity. ? The differences in density are exploited in spirals and jigs. ? Particular surface properties provide a separation technique in flotation. ?The selective sorption properties of a collector medium are another option.

Jan 1, 2007

By D. D. Munro

Finsch Mine is a kimberlite diamond mine located at Lime Acres in the Northern Cape Province of South Africa. The mine was founded in 1961 and started surface mining in 1964. Underground production commenced in 1990 using a modified blast-hole open stoping method for the mining of Blocks 1, 2 and 3. Block 4 is currently being mined as a block cave. The process of identifying and optimizing a method to mine the Block 5 orebody started in 1991, and in 2006 incline caving was identified as being technically feasible. This paper aims to document the process employed in developing this method by the Block 5 prefeasibility team as well as discuss the technical challenges encountered during this process. The paper commences with a history of Finsch Mine and highlights the complex geology and threat of sidewall failure that prompted the decision to use block caving as the mining method for Block 4. A literature study of mines that implemented mining methods upon which the incline cave was conceptualized is then presented. These practices were then used to form the basis for the designs on which the initial geotechnical modelling was done and built upon through an iterative process of modelling and design changes. The ventilation of the mining area, initial productivity simulation results, and the applicability of automation and comminution processes in the incline cave are also presented. The paper concludes with an investigation into some of the challenges of the mining method, and shows that that incline caving is a technical option available for further investigation in determining the optimal mining method to be employed at Block 5, Finsch Diamond Mine. Keywords massive mining, incline caving, geotechnical modelling.

Jul 1, 2013

By D. Fray

Electrochemical processing using molten electrolytes is undergoing a considerable renaissance due to several innovative ideas being explored both in the laboratory and also at the pilot scale. Several of these new ideas are related to developments in energy generation and storage and involve solid electrolytes. Sodium has been prepared by the electrolysis of sodium carbonate or sodium hydroxide with the transfer of sodium ions through a sodium beta" alumina membrane and magnesium oxide dissociated by the removal of the oxygen through a stabilized zirconiaelectrolyte incorporating a fuel cell electrode. By using halides with highly electropositive cations, such as molten calcium chloride, it has been found that the favoured cathodic reaction, when oxygen is present, is the ionization of oxygen and not the deposition of calcium. This approach has been applied to the reduction of many metal oxides including titanium, zirconium, niobium and rare earth oxides and, by using a mixture of oxides as the cathode, homogeneous alloys are produced. This concept can also be applied to deoxidation of solid and liquid metals. Refining of metals is possible using intercalation compounds and, in a completely different application, it has-been found that, by intercalating alkali metals by electrolysis of alkali halides into graphite, it is possible to produce carbon nanotubes and nanoparticles. The technological opportunities of these various concepts will be discussed.

Jan 1, 2004

By D. J. de Beer

South Africa had a late start with rapid prototyping (RP), with the first system being available in 1991. Up to 1994 only three systems were available in SA. Through active research participation from the CSIR and a number of universities, supported by technology transfer programmes and industry awareness workshops, adoption of RP technologies started to grow. Internationally, RP grew to the extent that several country-based member organizations were formed, and an initiation meeting of the Global Alliance of RP Associations (GARPA) took place during the SME Rapid Conference in Dearborn, USA in 1998. South Africa (SA) was invited under the auspices of the Time Compression Technologies Centre (TCTC) launched by the CSIR, and received an invitation to become a member of GARPA through the launch of a national, inclusive organization. The latter gave rise to a RAPDASA planning/launch meeting held at the University of Stellenbosch, which culminated in the first RAPDASA international conference held in November 2000 at the CSIR, and the election of a first RAPDASA management committee, also at the 1st AGM held during the conference. RAPDASA has been a pillar of strength since then, with an annual international conference being presented. As South Africa?s RP awareness grew through the RAPDASA and independent activities, so did the availability of RP platforms in SA.SA also became a benchmark for other countries/late adopters to follow, as slowly a position of following became a position of leading through innovative applications. The paper highlights SA?s development approach and history, together with the discussion of case studies in various fields. Contribution to the light metals industry will also be discussed. Keywords Rapid prototyping, additive manufacturing, product design, rapid tooling, rapid manufacturing, medical product development.

Jan 1, 2011

By S. M. Spottiswoode

Much as one hopes to predict whether damaging seismicity might occur somewhere in the next shift, this is not possible at present. Recently, an analysis of seismicity at two mines has shown that a small increase in seismicity occasionally occurs before both large and small events. This analysis is extended here to five mines, with the same results. Earthquake seismologists forecast hazard in terms of the average incidence of earthquakes over the last 50 years, adjusted on an hourly basis according to the possibility of aftershocks of events that have happened. The rate of seismicity in any area remains approximately constant when expressed as seismicity per area mined, or better still, per unit of elastic strain energy released. It is suggested that seismic hazard in mines be estimated using historical seismicity and forward modelling, adjusted according to the possibility of aftershocks. In summary, medium-term forecasting of seismicity is viable; short-term prediction of large events is not.

Jan 1, 2010

By K. L. Morton

Groundwater and associated pore pressure represent elements that can have a negative impact on surface mining and slope stability. Groundwater flow and deformation within a slope influence each other. An increase in pore pressure will result in a decrease of effective stress; and conversely, if the pore pressure decreases, the effective stress increases. Slope analysis and slope design calculations require good information on pore pressure distribution around an open pit excavation. Until recently very little pore pressure data were available and assumptions had to be used. Location and design of measuring points depend on geological and structural setting, geotechnical domains and practicality. Good planning and the use of sensitive point piezometers to measure in situ pore pressures means that real-time data can be collected and used for the construction of flow nets, the determination of pore pressure distribution around an open pit mine, the validation of the dewatering/depressurization requirements, the calculation of the efficiency of the dewatering system and finally the use of pore pressure data in slope stability analysis. The recommended layout for a monitoring system, types and design of piezometers, data collection and use of the pore pressure data are presented.

Jan 1, 2008

By H. T. Chiwaye

Risk analysis is an important step in the design of rock slopes in open pit mining. Risk is defined as the product of the probability of slope failure and the consequences of the failure, and is generally evaluated in terms of safety and economic risk. Most of the risk analysis done at present is based on the use of limit equilibrium (LE) techniques in evaluating the probability of failure (POF) of the slopes. The approach typically makes use of full Monte Carlo simulations of the limit equilibrium models, with all uncertain variables randomly varied. The number of required simulations is generally over a thousand, at times as high as 20 000, in order to produce statistically valid results of the POF. Such an approach is clearly not practical when using numerical modelling programs dueto the high computational effort required. This paper explores the impact of using numerical modelling instead of the traditional LE techniques in evaluating the probability of slope failure. The difference in the overall assessed risk, in terms of economic impact, for the mining operation is then evaluated. With numerical models, approximate methods are used in the calculation of the probability of failure instead of full Monte Carlo simulations. This paper will use a method called the response surface methodology (RSM) for estimating the POF from numerical analyses. Simple slope models were used to verify the accuracy of the RSM method by comparing the results with those obtained from full Monte Carlo simulations. It is shown that there is good agreement between the POF values computed using full Monte Carlo simulation and those obtained using the RSM method. Finally, the use of numerical modelling in the assessment of risk is shown to bring a significant difference in the result compared with that from LE methods. One of the reasons for the difference is that LE models tend to underestimate the failure volumes and hence the consequences of slope failure.

Jan 1, 2010