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The regular activities of the Institute are financed mainly by income derived from members' dues, from advertising in MINING AND METALLURGY, and from the sale of publications to the public. In addition, collateral activities and special projects are financed each year by means of income from endowed funds controlled and administered by the Institute. In the aggregate, the principal sums of these endowments amount to more than $530,000. An active effort is being made to increase the endowment funds of the Institute through a standing committee, of which H. T. Hamilton is chairman, and of which the other members are: W. H. Aldridge, George D. Barron, Cleveland E. Dodge, D. C. Jackling, Henry Krumb and J. V. W. Reynders. This committee feels that there exists a tremendous opportunity for the Institute to be of ever-growing service to the public, to the mineral industries, and to the profession. It welcomes suggestions as to names of men of means who are vitally interested in the mineral industries, and to whom the opportunity to make a contribution or bequest might appeal favorably if presented in the proper light by the committee.

Jan 1, 1941

By J. E. Warren, J. H. Hartsock

An asymptotic solution to the equation that describes the flow of a slightly compressible fluid in an infinite porous medium has been used to estimate the interaction between two adjacent wells producing from a common reservoir. A direct method for approximating the interference time defined by Stevens and Thodosl has been suggested. An alternative definition for the time of interference, based on the minimum pressure change in the interference region, has been proposed; also, a direct method of determination has been prescribed. Examples have been employed to illustrate the use of both methods.

By V. H. Whihelm

Since 1935 California has enjoyed a remarkable cycle of discovery, which has placed the state in a very satisfactory position in regard to oil reserves. Most ol the geophysical plays have been drilled and it is possible that new discoveries must be made by the application of careful geologic and stratigraphic studies. During 1940 only one new field was discovered, which, although not of major importance, may lead to additional discoveries. During the year, 113 wildcats were drilled. New discoveries, extensions and a reappraisal of discoveries made in 1939 will not approximate over 50,000,000 bbl., as against an estimated withdrawal during the year of 224,000,000 barrels. Demand in terms of crude for 1940 was 632,000 bbl. per day as against 626,000 bbl. per day for 1939. Demand for gasoline was the same as in 1939, but the demand lor fuel oil increased 3.8 per cent. Compared with 1939, Japanese shipments decreased from 75,786 bbl, per day to 61,000 bbl. per day, but the balance of Pacific foreign shipments increased from 59,409 bbl. per day to 61,304. Total with-drawals from storage during the year will approximate 7,000,000 bbl., almost all of which is fuel oil. Drilling activity was slightly greater than in 1939 and accounted for 890 new producing wells as against 851 for 1939 (Table 3). Production averaged 611,900 bbl. per day as compared with 614.,842 bbl. per day for 1939. The productive acreage figure of the state was increased by 4000 through discoveries and extensions. New Discoveries Los Angeles Basin District Del Vdle Field.—Northwest of Newhall, where the first oil well in California was drilled, R. E. Havenstrite completed his Lincoln No. I well, flowing 390 bbl. of 50" gravity oil together with 7000 M CU. ft. of gas. Later the well was recompleted, after cutting off the gas, for 950 bbl. of 34" gravity oil. The type of structure from which this production is coming is a plunging anticline, complicated by faulting. The Lincoln No. I well uncovered approximately 180 ft. of net sand. This field contains a gas cap and its indicated productive area approximates 500 acres. An intensive wildcat drilling campaign is expected during this coming year in the district in the vicinity of the Del Valle field. Extensions and Deeper Sand Developments Los Ange1es Basin District Athens Field.—On the northwest plunge of the Athens structure, the Thorley Oil Co. completed its No. 12-1 well, flowing 250 bbl. of 3 2" gravity oil from a depth of 8097 ft. The area in which the well is located is complicated by faulting and it is impossible at this date to determine the importance of this deep-zone discovery.

Jan 1, 1941

By V. H. Whihelm

Since 1935 California has enjoyed a remarkable cycle of discovery, which has placed the state in a very satisfactory position in regard to oil reserves. Most ol the geophysical plays have been drilled and it is possible that new discoveries must be made by the application of careful geologic and stratigraphic studies. During 1940 only one new field was discovered, which, although not of major importance, may lead to additional discoveries. During the year, 113 wildcats were drilled. New discoveries, extensions and a reappraisal of discoveries made in 1939 will not approximate over 50,000,000 bbl., as against an estimated withdrawal during the year of 224,000,000 barrels. Demand in terms of crude for 1940 was 632,000 bbl. per day as against 626,000 bbl. per day for 1939. Demand for gasoline was the same as in 1939, but the demand lor fuel oil increased 3.8 per cent. Compared with 1939, Japanese shipments decreased from 75,786 bbl, per day to 61,000 bbl. per day, but the balance of Pacific foreign shipments increased from 59,409 bbl. per day to 61,304. Total with-drawals from storage during the year will approximate 7,000,000 bbl., almost all of which is fuel oil. Drilling activity was slightly greater than in 1939 and accounted for 890 new producing wells as against 851 for 1939 (Table 3). Production averaged 611,900 bbl. per day as compared with 614.,842 bbl. per day for 1939. The productive acreage figure of the state was increased by 4000 through discoveries and extensions. New Discoveries Los Angeles Basin District Del Vdle Field.—Northwest of Newhall, where the first oil well in California was drilled, R. E. Havenstrite completed his Lincoln No. I well, flowing 390 bbl. of 50" gravity oil together with 7000 M CU. ft. of gas. Later the well was recompleted, after cutting off the gas, for 950 bbl. of 34" gravity oil. The type of structure from which this production is coming is a plunging anticline, complicated by faulting. The Lincoln No. I well uncovered approximately 180 ft. of net sand. This field contains a gas cap and its indicated productive area approximates 500 acres. An intensive wildcat drilling campaign is expected during this coming year in the district in the vicinity of the Del Valle field. Extensions and Deeper Sand Developments Los Ange1es Basin District Athens Field.—On the northwest plunge of the Athens structure, the Thorley Oil Co. completed its No. 12-1 well, flowing 250 bbl. of 3 2" gravity oil from a depth of 8097 ft. The area in which the well is located is complicated by faulting and it is impossible at this date to determine the importance of this deep-zone discovery.

Jan 1, 1941

By B. A. Wilcox, A. H. Clauer

DURING the course of an investigation on the high-temperature creep behavior of TD Nickel* (Ni + 2) vol pct ThO2), it was observed that the creep fractures were similar in appearance to low-temperature ductile fibrous fractures and creep ruptures by cavitation. Microfractographs of fibrous ruptures are typically characterized by a dimpled appearance, with second-phase particles frequently found near the bottom of the dimples.'-4 These somewhat resemble creep ruptures by cavitation, in that fracture occurs by void formation, with the subsequent growth and final merging of the voids to form a complete fracture.' It is the purpose of this communication to describe the creep fracture of TD nickel and suggest a mechanism for the rupturing process. The discussion is relevant to material crept to fracture in vacuo at a constant stress of 18,000 psi, over the temperature range 900" to ll00°C. The material used in this investigation was 1/2-in.-diam bar stock supplied by Du Pont, contain- ing 2.3 vol pct Tho2. The final fabrication treatment consisted of -95 pct reduction by swaging followed by a 1-hr anneal at 1000°C. Transmission and replica electron microscopy revealed that the material had a fibered structure with a transverse grain size of -1 µ and a longitudinal grain size of 10 to 15 µ. Selected-area diffraction indicated that the fiber axis was parallel to (00l), in agreement with the results of Inman et a1.6 The thoria particle size varied from 80 to 1000Å, with an average size of 400Å, and the mean particle spacing was about 1200Å. The remarkable structural stability7 was confirmed by annealing for 6 hr at 1300°C (about ' 0.9 the absolute melting point). Transmission electron microscopy revealed that the only structural change was a slight decrease in dislocation density. Furthermore, recrystallization or grain growth during creep has not been observed. All specimens were annealed in vacuo at 1300°C for 3 hr prior to creep testing. The following times to rupture were obtained for vacuum creep tests at a constant stress of 18,000 psi: 900°C, 854 hr; 930°C,

Jan 1, 1965

By H. Kazemi, G. W. Thomas, M. S. Seth

The double-porosity model of Warren and Root7 for examining pressure drawdown and buildup phenomena in naturally fractured reservoirs has been extended to intetpret interference test results. Both analytical and numerical solutions are presented. The practicality of some of the assumptions in the Warren-Root model was also investigated. The standard procedure for interpreting interference tests in naturally fractured reservoirs beretofore employed an equivalent homogeneous reservoir model. A comparison of our results with the equivalent homogeneous model indicates the latter is inadequate for early time responses. For late time responses, however, the simpler equivalent homogeneous model yields favorable results. Finally, the effects of well spacing and the magnitude of the interporosity flow parameter are briefly cited. INTRODUCTION Interference tests can be used to provide reservoir information not obtainable from conventional pressure drawdown and buildup tests. The technique involves measuring the response in one or more wells arising from a pressure perturbation introduced into another well. It has been. successfully applied to single-layer, homogeneous, unfractured, isotropic and anisotropic formations to arrive at values of well storage capacity and a measure of directional permeability.l The techniques of interference testing usually can be extended to heterogeneous systems, provided the permeability contrast between any existing rock layers is not excessive.9 In such cases, the practical interference effects in an observation well of an interconnecting heterogeneous reservoir can be predicted using an equivalent homogeneous model. The calculated properties are then average values. Russell and Prats2 have demonstrated the utility of this approach for a single-phase, two-layer system. For naturally fractured reservoirs, some different approaches usually are necessary. The major departure from homogeneous or nearly homogeneous reservoir treatment is to characterize the fractured system as an entity having "double-porosity"; namely, we suppose the existence of both primary and secondary porosity, where the former is contained within a systematic array of identical rectangular matrix blocks and the latter is contained within an orthogonal system of continuous, uniform fractures (see Fig. 1). It is sufficient to assume that the permeability of the rock matrix is so small that movement of reservoir fluids to the producing wells is entirely through the fracture network. This assumption has been validated by Barenblatt3 and .employed by others?-7 Warren and Root7 used the double-porosity model to develop an interpretation of pressure drawdown and pressure buildup tests in naturally fractured

Jan 1, 1970

By Sam Tour

WHAT is a die-casting and what is the die-casting industry? From the literal translation of the words "die" and "casting"' one concludes that a die-casting is a casting made in a die. The casting may be of any metal or alloy or, for that matter, may be of some nonmetallic material capable of being cast, such as plaster of paris or glass. The die may be of any material that will take successive casts so it need not necessarily be metallic in nature. The term "die-casting," therefore, is indeed broad, though in practical usage it has come to mean the casting of metals and their alloys in metallic molds or dies. Even this limitation of the term leaves -a broad field, for castings may be made in a number of different ways. For example, the molten metal may be allowed to run into the die by gravity it may be sucked into the cavity of the die, it may be forced to take the contour of the cavity in the die by centrifiugal force, or it may be forced into the cavity under hydrostatic pressure. In England, castings made by practically all of these

Jan 1, 1935

By Richard Miller

RECENT studies of creep have made it apparent that plastic deforma-tion may occur in metals under stresses less than the elastic limit as deter-mined from short-time tests. In summarizing conclusions drawn from creep tests by various investigators, Tapsell1 said: "It is evident that if a material has a true elastic range, the elastic limit must represent the maximum stress for no creep." The presence of a. definite elastic limit, represented in single crystals by a critical or threshold shearing stress, is claimed by Schmid2, Elam3 and others who have investigated the plastic deformation of single crystals. However, this "law of critical shearing stress" was deter-mined2 from short-time tests, and the measurement of the deformation was made with apparatus primarily designed to observe large amounts of plastic deformation, not to detect elastic changes. Experimental data recently obtained with highly sensitive instru-ments by A. W. Hanson4 on zinc and by Podaschowsky5 on rock salt indicate that the elastic range in single crystals is considerably narrower than formerly was supposed. Moreover, a theoretical possibility of permanent deformation, under the influence of even the smallest shear stress in single crystals above a certain temperature (Td), has been developed by G. I. Taylor6. This evidence seemed to warrant an examination of the elastic limit in large single crystals by means of creep tests. The first metal chosen for examination was zinc.

Jan 1, 1936

By E. T. Turkdogan

Jan 1, 1962

By W. Lawrence Austin

Jan 1, 1884

By L. Obert, D. E. Stephenson

The objectives of this investigation were to develop a laboratory procedure in which core discing could be produced under known (and variable) stress conditions, and to study the discing characteristics of several fypes of rock. Discing of rock cores refers to the formation of discs or wafers of relatively uniform thickness which fracture or rupture on surfaces approximately *Fracture is a type of failure in which there is a complete loss of cohesion and fresh surfaces are created. Rupture is a type of failure in which there Is only a partial loss of cohesion. normal to the axis to the core (see Fig. 1). Usually the surfaces of the discs are concave-convex with the concave side toward the collar of the hole. The surface of the fractured discs are like those created by a tension failure (or possibly a shear failure with virtually no normal compressive stress). This phenomenon has been observed by a number of investigators1-5 in the course of diamond drilling in underground mines, especially in areas suspected of being under high stress. The state of stress in the core required to produce discing is not exactly known. Tranter and craggs6 theoretically investigated the stress distribution in an infinite cylinder, subjected to hydrostatic pressure, minus p, from z = 0 to z = 8 and unloaded from z = 0 to z = 8, Fig. 2. The exact solution to this problem shows that a tensile stress develops in the loaded region near z = 0 with the greatest tensile stress on the axis of the cylinder. A tensile stress also developed on the surface of the cylinder at a point just outside of the loaded zone. Jaeger and Cook3 experimentally investigated the discing mechanism by biaxially loading cores in a pressure jacket sealed at the ends by O-rings. According to the Tranter and Craggs theory it would be expected that failure should occur at the pressure discontinuity at the O-rings. The experimental results showed that if the specimen was unjacketed it broke at random points within the pressurized zone and at a pressure somewhat greater than the tensile strength of the specimen, presumably due to the development of a

Jan 1, 1965

By F. D. Richardson

STAFF: Editor, Gerhard Derge Carnegie lnstitute of Technology Schenley Park Pittsburgh, Pa. 15213 Editorial Assistant, M. A. Redmerski Production Editor, Otto T. Johnson THE METALLURGICAL SOCIETY: Jack H. Scoff, President; Richard C. Cole, Past-President; Harold 0. Emerick, President-Elect; Ralph L. Hennebach, Treasurer; Robert W. Shearman, Secretary; Donald A. Parks, Assistant Secretary; Leslie S. Wilcoxson, Assistant Secretary. PUBLICATIONS COMMITTEE OF THE METALLURGICAL SOCIETY: R. E. Lund, Chairman; T. E. Dancy, H. O. Emerick, P. R. Gouwens, R. E. Grace, J. H. Jackson, H. H. Johnson, A. E. Lee, Jr., R. R. Nosh, R. D. Pehlke, and Paul Queneau. Review and selection of manuscripts is under the supervision of the following Publications Committees: Extroctive Metallurgy Division: R. E. Grace, Choirmon; G. M. Bell, D. W. Bridges, J. M. Cigon, G. W. Heoly, T. A. Henrie, R. D. (Holli-doy, C. E. O'Neill, C. S. Somis, A. W. Schlech-ten, and Charles Shull. Iron and Steel Division: R. D. Pehlke, Choirmon; T. P. Floridis, Arnulf Muon, G. R. St. Pierre, E. T. Turkdogan, L. H.Von Vlock, and J. M. Uys. lnstitute of Metals Division: H. H. Johnson, Jr., Chairman; J. B. Clark, Vice Choirmon; M. R. Achter, G. F. Bolling. J. O. Brittoin, G. P. Conard, II, R. S. Davis, L. A. Girifolco, G. T. Hohn, J. P. Hirth, L. Himmel, G.T.horn, George Krauss, J. D. Livingston, R. D. Manning, H. M. Otte, S. V. Rodcliffe, R. E. Reed-Hill, H. C. Rogers, E. ScaIa, O. Sherby, M. T. Simnad, G. R. Speich, E. A. Steigerwald, R. A. Swolin, W. A. Tiller, W. R. Upthegrove, J. B. Wagner, Jr., Derek Wolton, H. W. Weart, W. W. Webb, and D. Published seven times yearly in February, March, April, June, August, October, and December by the American lnstitute of Mining, Metallurgical, and Petroleum Engineers, Inc., 345 East 47th Street New York, N. Y. 10017. Telephone PLAZA 2 -6800. Subscription $30 per year for non-AtME members m United States and North, South, and Central America; $32, foreign; $7.50 for AlME members Single copies, $6.00, single copier foreign, $6.50. The AiME is not responsible for any statement made or opinion expressed in its publications . . . Copyright 1964 by the American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical, and Petroleum Engineers, Inc. . . . Registered cable address, AiME New York Indexed in Engineering Index, Industrial Arts Index, and Chemical Abstracts. Second dost postaas poid ot New York, N. Y.,ond Ann Arbor, Mich. Volume 230, Number 6.

Jan 1, 1964

By K. C. Ko, D. A. Pifer

The theory of probability with respect to the failure of structures is discussed. It is shown that the probability of safety, probability of failure, and factor of safety are directly related to each other and that as standard deviation approaches zero, the probability curves approach a unit step function which can be interpreted as the conventional factor of safety. The factor of safety is numerically the ratio of the load to the strength of the material at a particular point or plane in an engineering structure. Mathematically, it can be illustrated as a unit step function undefined at the point where the factor of safety is one (Fig. 1). The uncertainty of variation of soil and rock strengths require factors of safety much higher than those used in other engineering structures. The factors of safety used are generally determined from past experiences with similar structures. However, the factors thus determined do not have any theoretical meaning or do not indicate any relationship to actual safety.' It seems, therefore, logical to develop a system with a sound theoretical basis to obtain a more suitable factor of safety for structures. An application of elementary theory of probability indicates that it is possible to relate this number to theoretical and practical engineering facts.

Jan 1, 1971

Organization Place Date 1919 National Drainage Congress St. Louis, Mo. Nov. 11-13 American Mining Congress St. Louis, Mo. Nov. 1.7-21 Canadian Mining Institute Vancouver, B. C. Nov.. 26-28 American Society of Mechanical Engineers:.... New York, N. Y. Dec. 2-5 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Savannah, Ga. Dec. 3-6 Geological Society of America...; Boston, Mass. Dec. 29-31. American Society of Heating and Ventilating 1920 Engineers New York, N. Y. Jan. Mining and Metallurgical Society of America ... New York, N. Y. Jan. 13. American Institute of Min. and Met. Engineers... New York, N. Y. Feb. 16-19 American Ceramic Society Philadelphia, Pa. Feb. 23-26

Jan 11, 1919

By Enrique Hauser

Discussion of the paper of ENRIQUE HAUSER, presented at the New York meeting, February, 1916, and printed in Bulletin No. 110, February, 1916, pp. 521 to 534. GEORGE A. BURRELL, Pittsburgh, Pa. Mr. Hauser determined the influence of inert gases on the properties of fire-damp mixtures, and one might take some issue with his work on the effect of hydrogen, on those mixtures. It is valuable information to have, but as far as the practical application of it goes, it is not of much significance, because one does not find it in mines, at least not in any appreciable amount. The same Fig. 1.-APPARATUS FUR DETECTING COMBUSTIBLE GASES IN AIR. thing can be said of ethylene. Ethylene is formed in considerable quantities as a product of heat reaction, but normally, in the coal mines, as a result of a great many analyses we have made at the Bureau of Mines, we cannot say that ethylene is a combustible gas found in the fire-damp in coal mines.

Jan 5, 1916

By J. B. Gayle

PRESENT flotation processes depend almost entirely on the buoyant properties of air bubbles to effect separations of mineral and gangue, but there is no convenient method for measuring aeration in flotation cells. Consequently the relation between aeration and cell performance has not been definitely established. In connection with a comparative study of kerosene and froth flotation processes, a modification of the displacement method' was developed in which air escaping from the cell surface is measured with a wet-test meter. The arrangement shown in Fig. 1 is satisfactory for use with a number of cells and is not critical, except that care must be taken to use connections and tubing large enough to avoid excessive back pressures. Attempts to use smaller tubing resulted in back pressures that caused displacement of the liquid level in the receiver, so that some air was lost around the sides, an occurrence readily visible when measurements were taken with only water passing through the cell. With the arrangement shown, the manometer indicated an average reading of about 1/2-in. water pressure. No loss of air was evident. Fig. 2 presents typical data for a standard Denver sub-A 24x24-in. unit cell operated at impeller speeds from 0 to 710 rpm. Each plotted point represents the average for five readings distributed over the entire cell surface. Readings were taken with only water passing through the cell. Results of this type have been used in a study of the influence of operating variables on cell performance and in detecting inherent differences in the operating characteristics of cells of various kinds. Although the information presented in Fig. 2 resulted only with water passing through the cell, the apparatus is suitable for use during flotation of coal when various reagents are present. Possible modi- fications that might prove convenient under special circumstances include varying the size and shape of the receiver and substituting a calibrated, inverted, water-filled carboy or other gas-measuring device for the wet-test meter. If such modifications result in excessive back pressures, some form of draft should be applied at the discharge end of the measuring system.

Jan 1, 1959

By J. F. Havard

The enterprises based upon the industrial minerals are diversified in geologic habit, mining systems, processing techniques and marketing methods. Nevertheless, in 1972 these enterprises faced many of the same frustrations and hopes and knotty problems and crucial decisions. Volume and profits were generally improved but were uneven in extent and effect. The U.S. cement industry, for example, was unable to meet demand in major markets. It was constricted by a frozen low-level price structure, faced expensive pollution control measures and watched heavy imports penetrating its markets from several European nations, Mexico and Canada.

Jan 1, 1973

By J. L. Gregg, J. L.

RECENTLY there has been considerable interest in the production and use of extra hard alloys composed primarily of tungsten and carbon. Dr. Hoyt's recent paper1 gives a good description of these alloys and describes their performance when used as tools. There are a number of these alloys on the market sold under various trade names, and it is the purpose of this paper to describe the results of an investigation of the structure of five of these alloys by means of microscopic and X-ray methods. The samples studied were in the form of small tools or wire-drawing dies, which were either purchased or supplied as samples. They were in some cases not supplied by the original makers but were furnished by the agents in this country, and we wish to call attention to the fact that they may not be truly representative of the materials supplied under the various trade names. No performance data are given and no inference as to the inferiority of one alloy as against any other is made. K. Schröter2 recently described methods for polishing alloys of this type for microscopic examination and has presented photomicrographs of several alloys. However, he did not identify their constituents or describe methods for their identification.

Jan 1, 1929

By H. O. McLeod, J. M. Campbell

Data analysis of pentane and hexane adsorption from natural gas in a fixed bed of silica gel shows that constant length mass transfer zones form, the curvature of the adsorption isotherm controls the growth of the mass transfer zone and surface diffusion of molecules inside the silica gel particle controls the mass transfer rate. Curvature of the hexane isothem is more than the curvature of the pentane isotherm. Because of this curvature the hexane adsorption zones reached a constant length. In contrast, the pentane adsorption zones were always increasing in length during each run. A procedure was developed to obtain correct mass transfer coefficients using effluent curve slopes. These transfer roefficients increase with the amount of hydrocarbon adsorbed on the silica gel particle. The characteristic shape of the hexane effluent curves also show that molecular diffusion inside the silica gel particle controls the adsorption rate of pentane and hexane. INTRODUCTION The purpose of this study was to determine the mechanisms that control the dynamic adsorption of hydrocarbons from a natural gas onto silica gel. Before one can deal effectively with multicomponent adsorption, the transfer mechanisms by which a single hydrocarbon component is adsorbed from the gas stream must be defined. Two principal investigations of this system have been published ' and indicate that diffusion through the gas around the particle controls the adsorption rate. Some of the experimental observations in each study either do not support this transfer mechanism or are inconsistent with the mathematical model used in analysis. In this study surface diffusion of molecules inside the particle controls the mass transfer rate of pentane and hexane. This mechanism is indicated by the effluent curve shape for a constant length transfer zone and by the variation of the mass transfer coefficient with concentration of the adsorbed hydrocarbon. THEORY AND DEFINITIONS — MATHEMATICAL MODELS Mathematical solutions for the isothermal adsorption of a trace component from a carrier gas are derived from three relationships: the mass balance or continuity equation, the equilibrium relationship between the gas and solid phases, and a mass transfer rate equation. The transfer rate is proportional to the adsorbate concentration gradient within either the gas or solid phase. Mathematical solutions of these equations usually give the adsorbate concentration as a function of time and distance from the bed inlet. That part of the bed in which the adsorbate concentration changes from a maximum to a minimum value is called the transfer zone. This transfer zone is directly related to a plot of the effluent concentration vs time which has a characteristic S-shape. This general shape is determined by the continuity equation and occurs in many processes of diffusional transfer.

Jan 1, 1967

By Zay Jeffries

From the title of this chapter the reader could expect an attempt to outline the anticipated shape of things to come, mineralwise. We have no crystal ball and if we possessed one we could claim no expertness in its use. In the first place no one can tell the future status of man. No one has any way of knowing to what extent peace will prevail, nor to what extent changes may occur in national sovereignties or forms of government or in international relationships. So future man is an uncertainty. Nor can we predict new developments that may result in significant changes in man's status or in the mineral industry or both. If, for example, this chapter had been written in the middle 1930's, nearly everything that has happened since in the field of atomic energy would have been missed. Yet what a vast change this has made in the status of man! Also the changes in the mineral industry have been important. A writer would have been bold indeed had he prophesied that uranium would play such an important role. But we need not confine our foggy vision to the atomic energy field. The steep rise in the use of aluminum, titanium, and germanium reflects the unpredictable in what may be thought of as the more normal pursuits. This should not discourage one from using the past and currently observable trends as bases for limited predictions. To do this, however, it is desirable to make certain assumptions about man's status without even a pretense that these assumptions have a high probability of fulfillment: 1. Only minor changes will occur in the geographical boundaries of the nations of the world. 2. World War III will not take place in the near future. 3. As a consequence of (2), man will not destroy himself by wanton use of atomic weapons. 4. Disarmament will take place, if at all, gradually rather than all at one time. Under the above assumptions the world will enjoy a period of relative peace even though the status may be one of an armed truce. The assump-

Jan 1, 1959