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By Ted DePooter, Mun Wei Leong, Chad Frederick

Downtown Bellevue Tunnel (DBT) is part of Sound Transit’s $3.7 billion, 14-mile light rail transit system from downtown Seattle, across Lake Washington, to the cities of Mercer Island, Bellevue, and Redmond. The tunnel was the first Sound Transit East Link project and posed significant construction risk. This paper discusses implementation of design changes to the soft ground tunneling method, implementation of several technologies such as the use macro-synthetic fiber initial shotcrete lining, use of spray-applied waterproofing, and use of shotcrete for the final tunnel lining. These efforts allowed for significant time and cost savings to the project.

Jun 13, 2021

By L. M. Chan, D. H. Carlson, J. H. Johnson

This paper discusses laboratory evaluation of a tailpipe emissions measurement apparatus (EMA) developed by Michigan Technological University (MTU) under contract to the Bureau of Mines. The apparatus dilutes diesel exhaust and measures the concentrations of diesel particulate matter (DPM), CO, C02, NO and NO2 at known dilution ratios. The EMA was evaluated by side-by-side comparison of its measurements with those by laboratory grade instruments. During the preliminary laboratory evaluation concentrations of DPM, CO and CO2 were measured. The concentrations of CO and CO2 measured by the EMA were usually within ±14 pct of laboratory-measured values for CO and ±20 pct for CO2. EMA DPM concentrations correlated well (r = 0.96) with the laboratory values, but were 29 pct lower on average. The CO and C02 differences were observed to be related to the method of calculating the EMAs' dilution ratio and the difference in DPM concentrations is attributed to thermophoretic and/or condensation losses related to the EMA's unheated sample probe. Preliminery analysis of data obtained with a heated sampling probe and modifications in the sampling procedures have indicated reduced variability in DPM and in the calculated dilution ratios.

Jan 1, 1991

By R. C. Beers, R. J. McKinley, R. D. Stewart

Preliminary test results at Occidental Research Corp.’s Irvine, CA, research facility indicate the viability of a new induced fluorescent sorting technique for preconcentration of limestone, coal, and oil shale. The patented “Oxylore”* process is a preconcentration stage that takes advantage of selective surface chemistry to label either ore or gangue particles with a fluorescent coating that can be detected by activation with ultraviolet light. The technology was originally developed by Ted Matthews (SME-AIME Fall Meeting, 1974, Preprint 74-B-328) and was acquired by Occidental in 1977. The firm has continued development of the process since its acquisition.

Jan 6, 1980

By Stephen G. Whittaker, Rosalind A. Schoof, Martha J. Steele

In determining remedial action objectives for metals in soils, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency typically assumes that the metal concentrations in house dust are the same as the metal concentrations in soil. Data now available from several studies that were conducted in mining communities suggest that for some metals, concentrations in house dust may be lower than those in soil. This paper reviews available data on the relative soil and indoor dust concentrations of arsenic and cadmium and examines how changing assumptions regarding indoor dust concentrations of arsenic affects risk assessments and determination of cleanup levels.

Jan 1, 1992

By Lars A. Stålberg

"This paper will touch several of the topics covered by SDIMI 2005, including,• Sustainability indicators for the minerals industry, • Best practice of sustainable development in the minerals industry, • Social contributions,The complex issues of a company’s "sphere of influence" and "complicity" are important to every discussion of business and Human Rights. The paper will argue that to protect and promote Human Rights needs to be regarded as an integral part of sustainable development policies for the minerals industry. This implies a need for explicit inclusion of Human Rights indicators among the indicators to be applied by the minerals industry."

Jan 1, 2005

By S. K. Mishra, S. B. Kanungo

Because conventional (physical) methods of ore dressing are not suitable for reducing the phosphorus contents of high-phosphorous manganese ores from Andhra Pradesh (AP) and the adjoining area in southern Orissa, India, the adoption of chemical methods becomes imperative. An attempt was therefore made to reduce the phosphorus content of partially beneficiated manganese ores from AP by roasting with sodium carbonate and then leaching with hot water. However, due to the higher phosphorus contents of the manganese ores from Nishikhal mines in southern Orissa, and because of their apparent resistance to dephosphorization by roasting with Na2CO3 alone, a mixture of Na2CO3 and NaCl was found to be necessary to reduce the phosphorus content to below 0.15%. Free-energy calculations at 700°C and above indicated that Na2CO3 (or Na2O as the active component) is a more active reagent than NaCl. Various process parameters, such as the temperature and time of roasting, the amount of sodium carbonate and the temperature and time of leaching, were studied to arrive at the optimum conditions for dephosphorization.

Jan 1, 2000

By H. S. Rathor

In a major hydropower project in the Himalayas, during excavation of tunnel, hydrothermal gradient line appeared and caused extremely unfavorable conditions with rock and water temperature varying between 55°–66°C and nearly 100% humidity. Major changes in method of excavation, schedule of works, deployment of additional equipments and acclimatization of personnel were made to complete this unfavorable stretch of world’s longest Head Race Tunnel. The case study covers the various aspects of tunneling in geothermal rocks, inhuman working conditions, loss of production, cost overrun, contractual claims and strategy to manage such unfavorable working conditions.

Jan 1, 2003

By V. K. Karra

Based on extensive investigations on the effect of design variables on process performance from 1982-85, Nordberg developed a 746 kW (1000 hp) cone crusher with the objective of boosting crushing productivity in existing plants. The MP1000 fits on the same foundation as the 2 m (7 ft) SHD Symons cone but is designed to give two times the capacity of the 2 m (7ft) The economies of scale involved give the customer substantial cost savings. In this paper, process performance of the Nordberg MP1000 relative to the 2 m (7 ft)SHD Symons cone while crushing the same ore, will be presented. Also, implications of such a crusher scale-up to associated cost savings will be addressed.

Jan 1, 1990

By Richard M. Crowell, Laurie M. Tahija, Keith D. Dagel

Echo Bay Mines Ltd. operates a gold heap leach in Round Mountain, Nevada, U.S.A. In the past two years, the mine has expanded operations from 13.5 kt/d (15 kst/d) to 41.0 kt/d (45 kst/d), making it the world's largest gold heap leach operation. The expansion is a separate system from the previous 12 year old plant, yet very similar. The flowsheet contains open circuit primary, secondary, and tertiary crushing with interstage screening. A leach pad stacker loads reusable asphalt leach pads. The process plant features carbon adsorption, pressure strip, electrowinning, and electrorefining.

Jan 1, 1990

By R. L. Wiegel

There are approximately 40 million tons per year of phosphate rock produced in the United States, half of it by flotation. The bulk of this is used to produce diammonium phosphate, an essential ingredient in the commercial fertilizer mixes used by the thriving U.S. agricultural community. This paper describes the mineral beneficiation practices of the phosphate industry, with special emphasis on flotation. There is also an attempt to include those items that might be considered emerging technologies for the industry as it faces the problems of a diminishing high-grade reserve and the necessity for implementing dolomite/francolite separations.

Jan 1, 1999

By A. Dale Wunderlich

With the price of precious metals at an 18-year low, every ounce of metal produced is important. The theft of metals from mining and refining sites can mean the diffrence between profit and loss for many mining companies. Low metal prices do not reduce the potential for the theft of precious metals. History has shown that the price of gold has little to do with the desire for employees to steal precious or base metals. There is actually evidence that the theft of precious metals increases when the price of this commodity goes down. Several of the major precious metal thefts in the past year took place at silver mines when the price of silver was less than 16 cents/g ($5/oz). How does the lowest gold price in 18 years affect the need for security at precious metals properties? There is no short answer to this question. One reason is because the exposure to theft of precious metals is unique to each property. This makes it important that each property be evaluated individually. More than 95% of all precious metals thefts can be attributed to those working at the mine site. So preventing employee theft is the primary concern. One consideration is the location of the property. Gold selling at any price is still an attractive commodity in countries where the employees are making between US$400 and US$600 a month. It is not uncommon for employees at mines in countries where low wages are the norm to consider the value of a gram or two of gold to be a significant amount of money. A gram or two of gold a day may not seem like much. But if 15 employees steal two grams a day, that equates to a significant amount of money during a year. The type of property where the precious metals product is being recovered is also important. For example, a property with a gravity circuit is more likely to suffer from the theft of gold product than a property where all gold is finely disseminated and the only gold seen in the ore body is through a microscope. Gravity circuits increase an operation's exposure to theft because the grinding circuit that is associated with a gravity circuit often becomes a giant concentrator. Areas such as the bottom of grinding-mill pump boxes, cyclone-feed-pump clean out traps and the sumps often become locations where precious metals concentrate (Figs. 1 and 2). Muck concentrations in these locations can be as high as 25% to 40% of gold or silver. Not long ago, muck was removed from a barren-solution sump at a Merrill Crowe circuit that had concentrated to more than 40% gold. At a milling site in the Pacific Rim, residents of the community adjacent to the mine learned about the value of the concentrates in the sump under the ball mill and committed an armed rob¬bery. While several of their co-conspirators held the em¬ployees at bay with machetes, the others emptied the contents of the sump into buckets and removed it from the site. Armed robbery is not as common as employee theft. However, while this article was being written, an armed robbery occurred at a gold property in Central America. Armed perpetrators took as hostages the night shift employees at a process plant and used cutting torches that were on site to cut into the high-security and gold-storage areas. The perpetrators then stole a company vehicle to remove the stolen gold buttons and sludge from the site. Unfortunately, this type of activity goes on regularly. But managements of most mining companies are reluctant to discuss theft scenarios. So information pertaining to the theft of precious metals seldom becomes a newsworthy item. An audit conducted at a mine site with a gravity circuit recommended that the gravity recovery area be shut down until adequate protection could be provided. Although it was not connected with the audit, it was necessary to shut down the gravity area for a pro¬longed period because of problems with the gravity table. In the two months that followed, gold production at the site increased by about 31 kg/month (1,000 oz/month). It is difficult to attribute all of this increase to the theft of concentrates. But there was a good chance that at least part of the increase was due to the fact that concentrates were being stolen from the gravity area.

Jan 1, 1998

By Joel Lööw, Johan Larsson, Stig Vinberg, Malin Mattson Molnar, Mats Jakobsson, Jan Johansson

The mining industry is undergoing rapid transformation, driven by technological advancements, sustainability concerns and demographic shifts. This transformation will put more younger people in management positions. This study provides valuable insights into the leadership behaviors of younger and older managers within a large Swedish mining company, highlighting the importance of managerial experience and targeted training programs to foster effective leadership, particularly in the context of change management. The findings emphasize the need to create work environments that support managers to develop their leadership, contributing to improved employee well-being, operational efficiency, and adaptation to the changing demands of the modern mining sector.

May 1, 2025

By Amoussou Coffi Adoko, Shevaune Zeng, Sebastian D’Hyon, Gareth Kennedy, Eleonora Widzyk-Capehart

Inertization of coal dust with stone dust is a common control implemented within underground coal mines to mitigate the hazard of a coal dust explosion. To achieve adequate inertization, the total incombustible content (TIC) of the coal/stone dust mixture is required to meet certain percentages depending on the risk and relevant legislation. Current methods for determining the TIC of a mixture involves laboratory analysis, colorimetric comparison, or the use of portable instruments. This paper provides preliminary analysis of determination of a sample’s TIC in real-time with chemometric modelling, using portable instruments employing near-infrared (NIR).

Feb 1, 2024

By Dennis S. Kostick

Soda ash is the common name for sodium carbonate (Na2CO3), an alkali compound that is the 11th largest inorganic chemical in terms of production of all domestic inorganic and organic chemicals, excluding petrochemical feedstocks. Despite that most people have never heard of soda ash, it is an important industrial compound used to manufacture glass, chemicals, soaps and detergents, pulp and paper, and many other familiar consumer products. Natural alkalis have been used by mankind for thousands of years; however, their industrial manufacture dates back to only the latter half of the 18th century. Natural deposits of sodium carbonate have been known as early as about 3500 BC, when the Egyptians used natural soda ash in making glass. They also mixed lime and soda ash to make sodium hydroxide (caustic soda) that was combined with silicate minerals found in the Sinai desert. This made a soluble silica, which when added to aluminum-rich silt from the Nile River, produced a silica- aluminate cement mortar with excellent bonding properties for construction. The Romans in the first century AD also used natural soda ash in glass manufacture but expanded its use medically for the treatment of colic pains and skin eruptions, and in the making of bread. Elsewhere, people used the ashes of wood to obtain their source of alkali. People learned over time that different types of wood yielded various ashes with different properties; therefore, various plants were burned specifically for their ashes. Ash from plants grown in salt-bearing soils (such as saltwort) and from kelp and other seaweeds, especially Spanish barilla, were so different from ashes obtained from other vegetation that it became known as soda ash (due to its sodium content) versus pot ash, a potassium-based alkali ash. About 13 t of barilla ashes produced 1 t of sodium carbonate and 14 kg of iodine as a byproduct. The difference between these two ashes was relatively obscure until Duhamel Dumonceau made the distinction clear in 1736. The word soda ash developed from common usage and is perhaps more well known today than its synonym sodium carbonate. One of the primary ores of soda ash is trona, a sodium carbonate-bearing mineral that's name is traced back to Arabic origin. Trona also is known internationally by other names such as urao (Venezuela), kaum (Nigeria), natron (from Greek nitron and Latin natrium), and szekso (Hungary). The beginning of the Industrial Revolution in Western Europe in the late 18th century soon put a strain on the availability of raw materials to meet consumer demands. One of these scarce materials was soda ash. Because of the Seven Years War with England and the Napoleonic wars with other parts of Europe, France could not obtain sufficient quantities of Spanish barilla or other supplies of vegetable alkali to meet the growing demand. Efforts were needed to synthesize soda ash. In 1775, the French Academy of Sciences offered a large prize of 2,400 livres to someone who could find an inexpensive method to make soda ash. In September 1791 at St. Denis, Nicolas Leblanc (1742- 1806), a French chemist, developed such a technique using salt, sulfuric acid, coal, and limestone. The French Revolution interfered with its development, and his patent and factory were confiscated with Leblanc receiving only token compensation. Napoleon returned his factory to him; however, Leblanc was not able to raise enough capital to reopen it, and he committed suicide in 1806. A small, but not particularly successful, Leblanc plant was established in England in 1814. It was not until 1823 when the process first became commercially successful in Liverpool, England. The process was introduced in Germany in 1843 and in Austria in 1851 (Harness and Coons, 1942). Soda ash production by the Leblanc process reached its peak of about 599 500 t in 1880, after which it began to decline as the Solvay process became more popular. The Leblanc process was used to a limited extent in Europe during World War I but had disappeared by World War II. The Solvay process, also known as the ammonia-soda process, was developed by Alfred and Ernest (1 838-1922) Solvay in 1861 based on a concept by Fresnel that had been known since 1811. For the next 50 years, the implementation of the idea evaded industrial chemists because no large-scale and economic means could be found to commercialize the concept. Although Ernest Solvay was unaware of the existance of an ammonia-soda concept, he solved the problems by utilizing carbonating towers. The Solvay process produced soda ash from salt, limestone, and coke, with ammonia as a catalyst. With a capital of 136,000 francs, the first plant was built by the Solvay brothers at Couillet, Belgium, in 1863 with production commencing in 1865. Synthetic soda ash production amounted to 1.5 tpd in 1866, but reached 10 tpd by 1872. They patented their use of carbonating towers in 1872 that had made ammonia-soda manufacturing a successful continuous process. Their second plant was built in 1872 at Dombasle, France. In 1874, the first Solvay plant in England was built at Northwich by Ludwig Mond, the namesake of Brunner Mond and Co. (formerly Imperial Chemical Industries), the company that currently operates the two English Solvay plants. In the United States, William B. Cogswell in February 1879 heard a presentation on the Solvay process and sailed to Europe to meet with the Solvay brothers to seek their support for using their process in New York. At first, the brothers were not interested; however, Mr. Cogswell was persistent and ultimately gained their support. The Solvay Rocess Co. was formed Sep. 2 1, 1881, and construction began immediately on the first Solvay plant at Geddes, near Syracuse, NY. The plant came onstream Jan. 10, 1884, and produced 11 180 t in its first year of operation. In 1910, rotary calciners were installed that increased capacity to 1 000 tpd. By 1930, plant capacity was up to 2 400 tpd. The facility remained in continuous operation for more than 100 years. By 1939. 10 Solvay soda ash plants were in operation in 6 States throughout the nation. The Syracuse plant was officially closed Jan. 6, 1986, with total shutdown completed by Feb. 1986. Ironically, this facility was the first Solvay plant as well as the last. Other than the first Solvay plant beginning in 1884, the majority of US soda ash supplies during the 19th century came from imports. The remainder of the US supply

Jan 1, 1994

By M. Z. Dogan, M. S. Celik, G. Onal, O. Ozcan, I. Yildirim

A fluorite ore (51.85 % CaF2) containing high contents of calcite, quartz and iron oxides was upgraded by flotation using a new reagent, oleoyl sarcosine (OS). In addition, quebracho and sodium silicate were used as depressants for calcite and quartz, respectively. The effect of pH, collector and depressants concentrations on grade and recovery was determined with the aim of optimizing the flotation conditions. Application of the two-stage cleaning achieved a concentrate assaying 92.17 % CaF2 with 80.1 % recovery. The Si02 content (0.76 %) was below the required level of 1 % SiO2. The mechanism of interaction between OS and fluorite, as compared to oleic acid, is also elucidated based on the zeta potential measurements.

Jan 1, 1993

By R. L. Grayson, T. L. Dickinson, C. G. Anderson

Sponsored by the EPA, USGS, DOE, and NSF through the Committee on Earth Resources, the National Research Council’s Committee on Material Flows Accounting of Natural Resources, Products, and Residuals, created in August 2002, studied the value that material flows accounting, which can track the flow of a material from the time it is extracted to its ultimate disposal, may provide for making better integrated economic, social, and environmental policy decisions. This could be a crucial technology for the mining industry to incorporate. This paper will recount the statement of tasks, the study process, and the science-based conclusions and recommendations reached.

Jan 1, 2004

By S. J. Bluhm

INTRODUCTION Lesotho is a mountainous area of southern Africa from which water is to be exported in an extensive tunnel system, to industrial regions inland. The related tunnelling project has involved a num- ber of drives using tunnel boring machines [TBMs] to excavate about 100 km of 5 m diameter water tunnels [von Glehn and Bluhm, 1995). This paper describes the ventilation and cooling of some of the tunnel drives from both the operational and design points-of-view with a particular focus on heat generation. There were many common features in all of the drives but this paper is focused mainly on the Hlotse drive which was 18,4 km long. The drives were ventilated using forced ventilation systems to provide appropriate air flow throughout the tunnels and face zones. In addition, the Hlotse drive required refrigeration equip- ment which provided chilled water to the tunnel. While the sec- ondary ventilation systems play an important role in gas and dust handling, the paper concentrates on the primary ventilation and cooling issues. The ventilation of these tunnels was an exacting exercise be- cause: • Rock temperatures and geothermal heat flow were high. • TBMs with relatively high power ratings were used. • Diesel locomotives were used. • Drives were relatively long. • High altitude meant a low air density. An important feature was the simulation and monitoring of the ventilation and heat flow components and the project was characterised by analysis, monitoring and ongoing tactical decision-making throughout the progress. The thermodynamics of the systems were complex because there were many interactive effects and analyses were carried out using special computer pro- grams. The monitoring confirmed the accuracy of the models, and in this manner it was possible to confidently ensure healthy and safe working conditions and still minimise costs. Local ambient climate conditions range from temperatures higher than 35 "C in summer to below -10 OC in winter. Based on available statistical data and the thermal storage/damping effects in the system, design summer ambient conditions were taken as 15 OC/25 "C wet-bulb/dry-bulb. The barometric pressure was 80 kPa and due to the altitude, the ambient air density was only 0,9 kg/m3. The local Authority specified a maximum in-tunnel wet- bulb temperature [at any point] of 32,O OC and a mean wet-bulb temperature [from all locations] of 27,5 OC maximum. The maxi- mum height of ground cover above the tunnel was 1 200 m and the maximum virgin rock temperature was 41 OC; see Figure 1. Diesel dilution criteria specified by the local Authority was a minimum of 0.1 m3/s per rated kW of diesel engine. Other requirements related to gases such as CO, CO2, NOx and CH4 [and the need for intrinsically safe equipment] but these are not of direct relevance to this paper. The actual average face advance was about 30 m/d with good days achieving 60 m/d and good months achieving 1 000 m [23 working days]. The original design tunnelling rate was 50 m/d. DESCRIPTION OF HLOTSE DRIVE VENTILATION AND COOLING SYSTEM The ventilation requirements in the tunnels were dictated by heat and diesel dilution needs. The best ventilation and cooling policy is generally a balance between using increased quantities of fresh air or refrigeration [or both]. In this particular scenario it turned out that, since the diesel emission criteria required large quantities of air, the refrigeration needs were modest. The drive was ventilated using a ducted, forced ventilation system from fans located at the portal. The maximum ventilation requirement was 51 m3/s when the drive was at 18.4 km. From a heat flow point of view, the worst scenario was a heat load of 3.5 MW when the drive was at 7 km. This was cooled by the ventilation air and a supply of chilled water to the tunnel. Refrigeration and chilled water system In the design phase, a detailed comparison was carried out between two general alternatives for providing refrigeration. First, was a system in which refrigeration sets and air coolers are installed on the TBM train; the refrigeration sets are cooled by condenser water piped to and from cooling towers at the portal. Second, was a system in which refrigeration water chillers are in- stalled at the portal and chilled water is piped into the tunnel. The detailed comparison indicated that the capital and running costs of the second system were at least 60 % lower than the in-tunnel plant. There were also many obvious practical benefits for favouring the portal system. The refrigeration plant supplied 23 11s of cold water at a temperature of 10 OC. After providing the cooling effect in the drive, the water returned to the portal where it was initially cooled in open-circuit evaporative pre-cooling towers, chilled in the refrigeration plant and then returned to the tunnel. The cold water flowed into the tunnel in an insulated supply pipe and returned in an uninsulated pipe; the water was simply circulated to the end of the pipe and returned. The cooling effect in the tunnel was achieved entirely through heat transfer from the pipe [long linear heat exchanger] and no air coils or other heat exchangers were required. The cooling requirements were satisfied by the heat transfer to the returns chilled water steel pipe [200 mm]. The pipes were eventually installed to a maximum distance of 10,8 km in what was considered a very practical and cost effective solution.

Jan 1, 1997

By T. W. Conrad, B. Kerr

During the last decade grassroots minerals education programs have blossomed throughout the United States and in other countries. At the same time an environmental education movement has been gaining momentum. While this offers a unique opportunity to share the mining industry’s story, it also has some potential pitfalls. In this paper the authors will discuss some of the benefits of participating in environmental education and provide some practical tips for success, based on New Mexico experiences. It will conclude with a presentation on a successful environmental education program at Heights Middle School in Farmington New Mexico.

Jan 1, 2001

By William Hodder, Ehsan Alavi, Muhib Hussain

Disc Cutter Wear is influenced by several geological and technical factors and excessive wear can have a major impact on the excavation efficiency of Tunnel Boring Machines (TBM). Disc cutter replacement events cause a disruption to the construction schedule and costs, and should be minimized throughout the project to the extent possible. A well-executed cutterhead inspection and maintenance plan can help mitigate abrupt cutterhead interventions and reduce its effect on project schedule and cost. This paper examines cutterhead inspection and disc cutter replacement events as well as subsequent wear data recorded in the first 7km of the 10.3 km long, 6.3 m diameter Coxwell Sanitary Bypass Tunnel (CBT) project in Toronto, Ontario. The CBT alignment is mainly through Georgian Bay Formation shale.

Dec 1, 2022

By Nellie E. Guernsey, Louis J. Sousa, Alfred Weiss, Nickolas J. Themelis

Over the past decade, numerous factors have led US copper firms to face increasingly severe competition from low cost foreign producers. As a result, greater attention is being devoted to developing and implementing new technology that can reduce costs and maintain the competitive position of domestic firms while simultaneously meeting environmental requirements. To obtain a better understanding of the likelihood of the development, adoption, and use of innovative copper technologies in the future, the Bureau of Mines contracted with Mineral Systems Inc. of Stamford, CT, to undertake a systematic survey of technological experts in industry, government, and the academic community. According to the survey, major developments in exploration over the next 25 years are likely to be in technologies that facilitate analysis and interpretation of deposit data rather than those that enable the collection of additional data. Most new copper mining and beneficiation technologies are likely to represent evolutionary extensions of existing systems with a notable increase expected in the application of information systems technologies and computer control methods. A possible movement towards increased usage of continuous mining systems in copper was also noted. Experts indicated that several copper smelters are under consideration for extensive renovation and, as a result, flash smelting technology is expected to become much more widely used in the US. A gradual movement toward continuous smelting methods was also forecast. In copper refining, the major technological change expected is the gradual automation of various refinery operations. Finally, though increased usage is expected, in situ solution mining and hydrometallurgical processing of sulfide ores are not expected to become widespread over the forecast time horizon. This first article in a two-part series describes the survey method chosen and the technological innovations selected for eval¬uation. Also discussed are the assessment panels, background scenarios, critical events, and diffusion forecasts. Next month, part two will address technology forecasts resulting from the study. Featured are discussions on future copper exploration, mining, beneficiation, smelting, refining, and recycling. A cost/benefit analysis will also be included. Methodology Selection of Assessment Method To develop a consensus forecast of technological change in the copper industry, a technique for systematically polling subjective opinions of experts was required. After conducting a literature survey and some preliminary testing, the direct probability assessment method was selected. With this assessment method experts are asked to express in quantitative terms their judgment of the probability that a specified event will occur, usually over a series of time frames. The method was chosen because the experts were observed to be more comfortable with this approach during the testing period, and the results of this process effectively satisfied the assessment objective. The experts generally could provide more precise estimates of the timing of future events using this technique because it was the least cumbersome of the assessment methods tested. Identification, Selection, and Description of the Technologies The initial list (Table 1) of innovative copper technologies assessed in the study was developed from two principal sources: knowledge and expertise of the study team and a review of relevant technical literature. From this list of 47 potential technologies, 10 were selected for detailed assessment. Table 2 lists 35 technologies that were subsequently identified in the first series of assessments. Twelve technologies from this list were also selected for detailed evaluation in a second assessment round. Criteria used for the final selection of technologies for detailed assessment specified that: • The expected impact of each technology on copper supply (i.e.,

Jan 9, 1983