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By VIVEK KASHYAP, EVODY TSHIJIK KARUMB, PATRICK TAYLOR

Zinc ferrite is considered an integral phase of zinc residues as their presence can render the processing of zinc and critical metals difficult. It is a refractory phase, formed at high temperature in the presence of zinc (Zn) and iron (Fe) during oxidative roasting in zinc processing plants. Because it is refractory to efficient leaching, unreacted zinc ferrite gets concentrated in the final zinc residue, making it a viable source of zinc and indium extraction. The refractory nature of zinc ferrite makes the extraction of associated critical metals difficult. In order to explore a potential economic and carbon-neutral zinc ferrite processing technique, our previous study proposed the partial reduction of zinc ferrite followed by sulfuric acid leaching of the roasting product [1-3]. As demonstrated in our previous studies, partial reduction of zinc ferrite results in a mixture of ZnO, Fe3O4 and FeO, which can be further subjected to leaching for efficient extraction of zinc and critical metals such as gallium and indium.

Dec 1, 2022

By VIVEK KASHYAP, Evody Tshijik Karumb, PATRICK TAYLOR

The partial reduction of zinc ferrite to zinc oxide and iron (II, III) oxide can enhance the leaching rate of zinc. Zinc ferrite has often been found as a major component of zinc residues and electric arc furnace dust. The Waelz process is an existing process for zinc ferrite processing, which requires a temperature of more than about 1200 °C to produce Waelz oxide containing ZnO. Since zinc residues have been deemed as a potential way for the extraction of zinc and other critical metals, it is important to analyze the reaction kinetics in the temperature range of interest. This manuscript discusses the chemical kinetics of zinc ferrite reduction by hydrogen gas. Several researchers studied the reduction of zinc ferrite with CO; however, unlike CO, the use of H2 gas as a reductant allows partial reduction of zinc ferrite even at low-temperature range (400–600 °C). Thermogravimetric analyses (TGA) experiments were performed in the temperature range of 300–700 °C with 10% and 30% H2, and the data obtained was analyzed using the isoconversional method of kinetic analyses. The standard models used for isoconversional kinetic analysis were chosen from literature and experimental data were fitted to determine the controlling mechanism and calculation of kinetic parameters of reduction of zinc ferrite. The rate of reaction was found to be increasing with an increase in temperature and partial pressure of H2 gas. The reaction could be divided into three stages, where reaction interface contraction was found to be the controlling mechanism at the initial stage of reaction. As the reaction proceeds, product layer thickness increases, and thus, diffusion was found to be the controlling mechanism. Roasting products obtained from TGA experiments were also characterized using a scanning electron microscope (SEM) to verify critical morphological details.

Jul 26, 2022

By Enrique Touceda

FOR a number of years prior to the world war, the firm of Geo. H. Thacher & Co., of Albany, N. Y., was engaged in the manufacture of marine and other gray-iron castings. At -the outbreak of the war the firm decided to specialize in the manufacture f propeller wheels. It attacked the problem, therefore, from a foundry point of view, seeking to produce a casting that would be so accurate that no subsequent machining would be required on the blades, also from the point of view of the ship builder. There were two general methods f manufacture, the shortcomings of which have been freely acknowledged. In the sweep method, the nowel, or bottom half-mold, for each blade is swept up by a spindle beam and pitch race, while the top half-mold for each blade is built up individually. In the pattern method one individual blade, with the hub or hub portion, is mounted on a spindle and the individual -blade mold formed, the pattern is then rotated on the spindle to the position- for the next blade, etc. In rare cases wheels were made from a solid pattern. Owing to the cost of the pattern, its failure in many instances to be correctly made, and (when made of wood) its early and sure distortion the disadvantage of this practice is obvious, while metal patterns in most instances were prohibitive in cost. In these methods both green-sand and loam molding was practiced. The casting produced by either method can be considered only as a blank from which the propeller must be machined. The back surface f each blade must be chipped too the templet and through this procedure chipped to such accuracy, as will be required for a static balance. Inasmuch as the' work done by the machine tool is confined to the driving face of the blades, not only is perfection most difficult, but corrosion will be greater because of the removal of the dense skin f the casting and the local strains set up by the pneumatic tool in chipping. To produce a finished 9-ft. propeller for a Navy destroyer required from 8 to 21 days f foundry work and about the same length of, time for the machining. Through the use f the Thacher process, only as many hours are required, besides it is possible to produce a finished casting in perfect conformity, with any particular propeller-wheel design,

Jan 4, 1921

By Nopadon Mantajit, Dallas W. Davis, Somsak Potisat, Prasert Kumalachan

For centuries Thailand has been a significant, though primarily unofficial, producer of gold. Panning has been the traditional way of making a living for innumerable villagers during the December to May dry season following the harvest. During this period groups can be seen working the streams, rivers, fields and dry valleys at as many as 90 localities in 28 provinces. Attesting to their efforts are the five and a half ton solid gold Buddha at Wat Trimit and much of the gold jewelry sold in Bangkok. This traditional panning will continue, and probably become more extensive, in harmony with commercial endeavors using modern technology suitable for extraction of gold from types of deposits for which gravity separation would give very low recoveries. Several such deposits have been discovered in the course of geochemical and geological surveys conducted by the Royal Thai Department of Mineral Resources with the object of contributing to early interpretation of the results of a country-wide airborne survey.

Jan 1, 1987

By K. Vatterrodt

Thallium is not significantly removed from mining influenced water (MIW) through conventional treatment in hydroxide precipitation plants. We experimentally investigated modifications to hydroxide precipitation schemes to concurrently remove thallium. Our goal was to determine cost effective and efficient hydroxide precipitation process modifications for thallium removal. Strategies for removal targeted multiple mechanisms including sorption, co-precipitation and/or oxidation of monovalent thallium. Modifications were tested in batch and included oxidant evaluation and the role of manganese. Removal of thallium was enhanced by the addition of permanganate as well as oxygen by aeration. In addition, contact with retained solids and the initial manganese concentration played an important role in the extent of thallium removal observed. This paper reports on our findings and discusses the implications in the removal of thallium with minor modifications to the hydroxide precipitation process.

Feb 27, 2013

By E. H. Mohr

AT the McGill concentrator of the Nevada Consolidated Copper Co., all flotation operations have been carried out in Forrester cells since November, 1926. In respect to cost of operation, the new cell has proved to be superior to the Callow, which it supplanted, and its incorporation in the flow sheet has resulted in a marked improvement in the metallurgy. Before citing the advantages of the new machine over the old, it should be explained that the Forrester has not only replaced the Callow, but it has made possible the elimination of a number of tables as well. When Callow cells were in use, table concentration preceded flotation. The ball mill pulp was elevated, by means of air lifts, to roughing Wilfley tables situated two floors directly above the flotation floor. On an intermediate floor were additional tables which cleaned the concentrate from those above. The finished table concentrate constituted approximately 60 per cent. of the total mill production, and contained about 40 per cent. of the recovered copper. The table tailings were returned to the classifiers, the overflow from which went to the flotation cells and the oversize to the ball mills. As soon as the Forrester cells were installed, this tabling operation was discontinued. The ball mill pulp now discharges into the classifiers direct, without the intermediate tabling. It was impracticable to employ the present flow sheet when Callow cells were in use, for the reason that unless the greater part of the heavy mineral was first removed, it accumulated on the mats and adversely affected the flotation operation. By tabling ahead of flotation, it was practicable to maintain the concentrator at 10 to 20 per cent. greater capacity (depending up on the pyrite content of the ore) than was possible by flotation alone. This was due to the necessity for finer grinding in the latter case. Even though the table concentrates contained only 6 to 8 per cent. copper con- tent, the low smelting costs made it advantageous to operate at high mill capacity, at the cost of low grade of product. STANDARD SECTION EQUIPMENT With the old-flow sheet, a standard section consisted of four ball mills and classifiers, one air lift, 20 roughing tables, 10 cleaner tables, 12 primary

Jan 1, 1928

By Charles R. Keyes

the leaching of near-by rocks, had had no other result than to bring out from obscurity three certain features of practical lmport, all the labor of that controversy would have been well expended. These three points are : (1) a clear distinction between the vadose and the profound zones; (2) a determination of the manner in which the latter may be invaded by conditions of the former; and (3) an establishment of the general truth of the lateral-secretion theory when vadose conditions prevail, and of the. ascension-theory under profound conditions. In the practical consideration. of ore-deposits these generalizations are fundamental. Their wider application must be productive of great industrial advantages. Of first importance in the broader scientific survey of ore-genesis is the recognition of a sharp distinction between vadose and profound conditions. To many who listened to Professor Posepny's remarkable paper, read at the Chicago session of the Institute during the Columbian Exposition in 1893, this seemed, as Dr. S. F. Emmons has already observed, its most valuable and suggestive feature. Notwithstanding Posepny's implications to the contrary, and his vigorous berating of Sandberger's views, the immediate and lasting .effect of the . argument was really to strengthen greatly Sandberger's position. For it completely and sharply separated the lateral-secretionists from the ascensionists, raising the sphere of the former bodily above the line of permanent water-level and at the same time confining .the sphere of the latter to regions below that horizon. A little later, Professor Van Rise showed in some detail how meteoric waters may deeply invade the profound zone and carry vadose conditions into it. The zonal limitations of two great and apparently opposed agencies being thus definitely fixed, it is found that neither of the theories based thereon is susceptible of general application. If the generalizations of the lateral-secretionist be propounded solely for vadose conditions, we are able to agree with all of his more-important contentions; while there is general acquiescence in the views of the ascensionist if their application be restricted to the profound zone. Of the ore-bodies of the world that are mined to-day, the majority are essentially vadose in origin, and probably originated

Jul 1, 1910

By Finney, W. R.

MUCH has been said and written of the "Big Inch," of the terrific obstacles encountered in its construction, of the colorful and tough men engaged in its building, but little has been publicized of the engineering and economic problems behind the scenes. Long before Pearl Harbor it was apparent to the petroleum industry that a critical oil shortage could be expected along the Atlantic seaboard, owing to delay in tanker deliveries as a result of convoy movements, and to allocation of vessels for foreign shipments. This area, with a normal consumption of approximately 1,800,000 barrels per day of oil and products, was almost entirely supplied by tanker. Pipe lines supplied an average of only 20,000 barrels per day in 1939, 40,300 barrels per day in 1940, and 55,000 barrels per day in 1941. A small amount of oil and products was also delivered via barge.

Jan 1, 1943

By Hugh S. Spence

IN the winter of 1941-42, muscovite mica was discovered by a young prospector, Justin Purdy, in the township of Mattawan, Nipissing District, Ontario, a few miles north of the small settlement of Eau Claire, which lies on the main Transcontinental Highway (No. 17) between Mattawa and North Bay. Muscovite had been known for many years to occur in the general Mattawa region, and various small efforts at production had previously been made by individuals working scattered deposits in the area. These minor activities, however, had never led to production of any consequence or the discovery of any important mica bodies. The Purdy finds were made in a heavily timbered, mountainous area lying about three miles north of the low-lying settled land along the highway, and in a section not hitherto prospected. The mica taken by Purdy and two partners from surface outcrops proved so remarkable in point of size of trimmed sheets that the find attracted considerable attention, and the area surrounding the three claims taken up by the prospectors was quickly blanket-staked by various interests. Though a number of other mica-bearing pegmatite dikes were 'found later on these stakings, none proved as rich as those on the original Purdy ground; very little commercial mica was obtained from them and attempts to develop them were short-lived. Purdy and his partners sold their initial production to dealers in Ottawa and Hull, where the Canadian mica industry long has centered. Young Purdy, unfortunately was killed in a motor accident in the early summer of 1942. His father continued mining operations for a few months and produced and sold a considerable amount of mica. In October 1942 the Purdy holdings were acquired by Inspiration Mining and Development Co. of Amos, Quebec, which had been active in staking in the area. This company formed a subsidiary, Purdy Mica Mines, Limited, to develop the property. Under the energetic management of Joseph R. Norrie, rapid progress was made, and production soon attained important proportions. Realizing from the outset the unusual character and potential value in the war effort of the Purdy discovery, the Metals Controller, Department of Munitions and Supply, at once arranged with the Department of Mines and Resources for an official geological report on the area, and also drew the attention of the War Production Board in Washington to what seemed likely to prove a highly important source of strategic-quality mica. Officials of WPB were sent up in the summer of 1942 to inspect the property,

Jan 1, 1947

By Christian Besson

This article describes the implementation of a new jointing process for use between diaphragm wall panels. This process was initially introduced on the SOCATOP work site in uburban Paris (which involved the closing of the western section of the A86 bypass road), on a tunnel ventilation shaft. This brand new system upgrades the potential offered by other types of joints available and enables both ensuring the continuity of panels for structures over 40 m in depth under the strictest safety conditions and constructing shafts with diameters of less than 15 m. A patent for this process has recently been filed.

Jan 1, 2002

A way back in 1851-2 an army of diggers had commenced the conquest, of the now famous goldfields of Australasia. At that time, and in the Colony of Victoria, more that 10,000 were camped on and around the slopes of the silurian ridges over which Ballarat East h'as been built. A wonderfully rich golden harvest was soon gathered from the alluvial found high on these slopes, and from runs (or gutters) which got their rise on them, and were traced down gullies into a broad valley. In due course it was ascertained that the valley carried a main gutter which represented the unity of the higher ones, and further explorations proved this gutter to have a westerly and then a southerly trend toward and under a basaltic plateau, on the top ofwhich Ballarat West and Sebastopol now stand. In the records of alluvial gold mining all the world over the Ballarat field can be classed amongst the richest. Gold in pieces the size of beans, in, stringy filigree bits, in dust and in solid lumps (the largest of which weighed more than 2,200 ozs.), was obtained in the comparatively shallow ground on the slopes; and speaking generally, great and uniform richness was met with along a belt of country on which, in a north and south line, the present quartz mines of Ballarat East are at work. It was noticed by the diggers that when the gutters crossed the upturned edges of the ,strata, the gold deposits in them were patchy, and that when they trended north and south on this beltthey carried rich deposits for longer distances. In time it was also noticf!d that a class of stringy, irregular shaped quartz occurrences, in a bottom of soft slates, in the, immediate vicinity of tpe g)ltter, meant greater richness, and (in the aIluvial) on the higher ground slabs of quartz would now and then be met with, in which strings and spongy masses of gold were found. As the shallow alluvial became worked out the diggers turned their attention to the quartz occurrences, and, now and again the striking of a flat make of a very golden nature would cause quite a stir in the local mining world.

By Richard J. Robbins

Mechanical moles have developed through a tedious process of evolution. At times it has seemed that tunnel borers have been subject to the same Darwinian rules of evolution as their zoological namesakes who, despite their efficiency, are highly specialized and still restricted to soft soil conditions near the surface of the ground. HISTORICAL HIGHLIGHTS The Robbins Co. began its work in this field in 1947 with the development of a twin-bore continuous coal miner. Although these machines were used primarily in coal, two of the early prototypes were used to bore tunnels through shale. Disk cutters were first used on these machines and showed promising results as core breakers between drag-bit kerfs. In 1953, James S. Robbins and Assocs. undertook the development of a 25-ft 9-in.-diam circular tunnel borer for Mittry Construction Co. to be used at Oahe Dam in South Dakota (Fig. 1). This is believed to be the first rock tunnel-boring machine built since the end of the 19th century when short sections of the Channel tunnel were successfully bored in chalk from both the English and French shores. Another Oahe Dam machine was built in 1955, and then a series of three small-diameter machines for the company's first real experience with medium-hard and hard rock (Fig. 2) None of these three could be considered a success, although they laid the groundwork for the success that followed. Interbedded shale and limestone in Pittsburgh and hard limestone in Chicago quickly pointed up the weaknesses in these machines which were used by Perini, Dravo, and Healey. Among the problems were the high breakage rate of tungsten-carbide drag bits, too much flexibility in the drive shafts, failure of high-pressure hydraulic systems, chain-conveyor failure, and general lack of rigidity and strength. In 1956 another attempt at medium-hard and hard rock-boring proved this time to be a success and a significant turning point in the development

Jan 1, 1970

By E. R. Leeman

INTRODUCTION The first references in the literature to the so-called C.S.I.R. 'doorstopper' strain cell were made in 1964 1,2,3,4. These were the climax of nearly two years of experimental and developmental work with the instruments and the operating techniques involved. Since that time numerous field measurements have been made with 'doorstoppers' and they have been developed to a stage where they are in commercial production and are being supplied to users throughout the world. No detailed description of the latest 'doorstopper' equipment has, however, appeared in print and this paper is written to bring the literature up to date in this respect. The triaxial strain cell was developed three years ago 5, 6, 7 and was first described at the First Congress of the International Society for Rock Mechanics in Lisbon in 1966 8. Since that date laboratory tests and-particularly important-field tests 7' 9 have demonstrated the validity and practicality of the instruments and techniques. These instruments have also been developed to a stage where they have been released for commercial production. In this form they are very different from those described two years ago and a full description of them at this stage seems to be justified. THE INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY 'DOORSTOPPER' AND TRIAXIAL STRAIN CELLS Both the 'doorstopper' and triaxial strain cells were designed specifically to determine the absolute stress in rock using an overcoring stress relieving technique. They were not designed to measure changes in stress. They may, however, be used for the latter purpose provided the glue which is used to stick the strain gauges to the rock is known to possess sufficiently stable strain-time characteristics as not to affect the accuracy of the results during the time the measurements are made. The 'doorstopper' was designed primarily to measure the major principal stress in situations where its direction and those of the two other principal stresses were either known or could be assumed. For example, at great depth in undisturbed virgin ground, it is reasonable to assume that the maximum principal stress is vertical and that the other two lie in a horizontal plane. The borehole in which the 'doorstopper' is installed would thus be drilled in the horizontal plane parallel to one of the minor principal stresses, the direction of which would either have to be assumed or determined as described later. The stresses measured would be the vertical major principal stress and the principal stress acting in a horizontal plane normal to the borehole axis. It is possible, as will be shown later, to obtained the complete state of stress using 'doorstoppers'. In this event, it is necessary to make measurements in three boreholes drilled in any three known directions to each other and relative to a system of three orthogonal axes. The triaxial strain cell was designed to determine the complete state of stress in a single borehole drilled in any direction in any stress field. At first glance it would appear to supersede the 'doorstopper'. This is not necessarily true since there are

The discovery since 1990 of four major orebodies in the Mt Isa Inlier - Century Zn-Pb, Osborne Cu-Au, Cannington Pb-Zn and Ernest Henry Cu-Au - only serves to enhance the already high stature of the Inlier in world mining importance. Currently the known mineral resources of the Inlier represent about 11 per cent of the world's Pb-Zn resources, five per cent of the world's Ag resources, and one per cent of the world's Cu resources. More can be expected to be added to these impressive figures given that two-thirds of the Inlier remains obscured by younger cover. Individually, projects such as Century and Cannington may ultimately achieve `world's best' status; Century's proposed production of 450 000 tpa of Zn metal would rank it close to number one with Cominco's expanded Red Dog project in Alaska. Cannington, with projected production of 660 tpa Ag, could become the world's biggest producer of silver. For comparison, Mt Isa produced 170 000 t of zinc metal and 335 t of silver in 1995. The apparent physical diversity of deposits in the Mt Isa Inlier is matched by a great diversity of opinion as to their origins. Because Ernest Henry is hosted by `porphyries', it is described by some as a porphyry copper deposit, despite mineralisation age possibly post-dating volcanic age by 200 Ma. Cannington Pb-Zn could be a Broken Hill-type (BHT) exhalitive deposit, or a late epigenetic replacement `regional skarn'. Mt Isa - Hilton Pb-Zn deposits appear to have experienced all deformational events and he syn-diagenetic in origin, or may have experienced little of the above and be epigenetic replacement deposits formed late in the major Isan orogeny, some 150 Ma after deposition.

Jan 1, 1996

By D. B. Paterson

In view of decreasing head grades, the relatively high gold price, and recent developments in metal evaluation, an exercise was initiated to determine the extent of gold concentration, the mode of occurrence, and the areas of concentration within the run-of-mine milling circuits of Randfontein Estates Gold Mining Company (Witwatersrand) Limited. The total gold content of three of the thirteen run-of-mine mils in the Group was measured as a typical lock-up of approximately 200 kg per mil. The majority of this gold was concentrated either behind the grid-type body liners or within the pockets of the body liners. This paper is an account of the experimental procedure and the results obtained, and highlights possible means of limiting gold lock-up in future.

Jan 1, 1988

By L. Kilburn

A survey of 281 mineral exploration agreements examines the ratios among three ways that may be used to purchase an interest in a mineral property, viz: pay cash, pay shams and make future expenditures on the property. The dollar value of the future expenditures exceeds that of cash or shams by about nine times in most of the 110 agreements that contain cash-expenditure or share-expenditure components. Results suggest that cash and shams are treated about the same in terms of value. Buyers and sellers haw opposing priorities for the way that they prefer to purchase a mineral property. These opposing priorities should give rise to a perceived 50:50 balance between cash/share payment and future expenditures to satisfy the idealized situation described by most definitions of fair market value (FMV). This balance between cash/share payments and future expenditures appears to be rationalized in negotiations to a FMV when expenditures are nine times greater than cash and/or payments. On this basis, it is proposed that the FMV of a property may be determined by aggregating the dollar amount of the cash/share payments plus one-ninth the dollar value of future expenditures, as set forth in the respective purchase agreement, and proportionately applying such aggregate to full property value.

Nov 1, 2005

By L. Kilburn

"A survey of 281 mineral exploration agreements examines the ratios among three ways that may be used to purchase an interest in a mineral property, viz: pay cash, pay shares and make future expenditures on the property.The dollar value of the future expenditures exceeds that of cash or shares by about nine times in most of the 110 agreements that contain cash-expenditure or share-expenditure components. Results suggest that cash and shares are treated about the same in terms of value.Buyers and sellers have opposing priorities for the way that they prefer to purchase a mineral property. These opposing priorities should give rise to a perceived 50:50 balance between cash/share payment and future expenditures to satisfy the idealized situation described by most definitions of fair market value (FMV). This balance between cash/share payments and future expenditures appears to be rationalized in negotiations to a FMV when expenditures are nine times greater than cash and/or payments.On this basis, it is proposed that the FMV of a property may be determined by aggregating the dollar amount of the cash/share payments plus one-ninth the dollar value of future expenditures, as set forth in the respective purchase agreement, and proportionately applying such aggregate to full property value."

Jan 1, 2005

By J. C. Motz

With ore grades continually decreasing and finer mill feed requirements, it becomes increasingly important to have the capability to handle the larger tonnages economically. With the 10 ft. Standard capable of reducing 1,633 metric tons per hour (1,800 short tons per hour) to 80 percent passing 50 MM (2 inches) and the 10 ft. Short Head following to produce a mill feed of all minus 12 MM (1/2 inch) at a rate of 608 metric tons per hour (670 short tons per hour), we feel significant savings will be realized in installation and operating costs. The largest concentration of cost in the secondary and tertiary crushing stations is the building itself that houses the process equipment. An example of the savings to be attained can be seen from an examination of a 40,820 metric ton (45,000 short ton) per day crushing plant. A total of nine 7 ft. Symons Cone crushers is used to generate 12 MM (1/2 inch) ball mill feed. The average center distance between units is 6.1 M (20 feet) and allowing a 6.1 M (20 feet) nominal distance from the centerline to the wails, the building becomes 61 M (200 feet) long. For this production rate, four 10 ft. Symons Cone crushers would be required. With the 10 ft. crushing plant requiring a center distance spacing of 7.6 M (25 feet), the building length totals approximately 38 M (125 feet). Construction costs vary depending on location, but a reduction in building length from 61 M (200 feet) to 38 M (125 feet) will result in estimated savings of between $2,500,000 and S4,000,000. While the 10 ft. Symons Cone has been involved in a number of feasibility studies for some time, the Process Machinery Division of Rexnord commenced detail design work on the 10 ft. Cone crusher in 1972. For comparison purposes, the 10 ft. and 7 ft. capacities are given in Table 1.

Jan 1, 1978

THE 125th meeting of the Institute was held in New York, Feb. 20-23, 1922, inclusive, and was the most successful annual meeting of the Institute ever held; there was a larger registration, there were more sessions of importance, and a greater number of sessions, than in any previous year. The total registration was 1331, comprising 351 New York members, 393 visiting members and 587 guests. At the annual business meeting of the Institute, held on Tuesday, Feb. 21, with President Ludlow presiding, there was a much larger attendance than usual. The report of the tellers was read and the following officers were declared elected: Arthur S. Dwight, Director and President-District 0 J. V. W. Reynders, Director and Vice-president-District 0 A. R. Ledoux, Director and Vice-president-District 0 Charles F. Rand. Director-District 0 George D. Barron, Director-District 0 William H. Bassett, Director-District 1 Thomas B. Stearns, Director-District 8 William Kelly, Director-District 5

Jan 3, 1922

By Alistair James, Mo Shahsavari, Leon Botham

The 1889 Johnstown Flood, which killed 2,209 people, was a preventable disaster stemming from systemic decisionmaking failures. This paper applies modern Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) frameworks to analyze the historical context and explore alternative outcomes through hypothetical multiverse scenarios. By reconstructing the risk landscape of the South Fork Dam, we demonstrate how structured hazard identification, risk assessment, and stakeholder communication could have mitigated or prevented the catastrophe. Three counterfactual scenarios—proactive maintenance, community engagement, and regulatory oversight—are evaluated to quantify potential lives saved and economic benefits. The study acknowledges historical barriers, including technological limitations, lack of governance, and socioeconomic disparities, which constrained risk-aware decisions in the 19th century. The analysis draws critical parallels to contemporary engineering challenges, particularly in tailings storage facility (TSF) management, where similar risk blind spots persist. The paper concludes that RIDM is not merely a technical tool but a governance imperative, essential for ethical and sustainable engineering practice. By learning from historical near-misses and failures, the modern engineering community can strengthen resilience and accountability. This work contributes to the growing body of retrospective risk analysis, offering a methodological framework for applying RIDM to historical disasters to inform future safety standards.

Feb 22, 2026