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By R. A. Halatchev

A risk model for assessment of the uncertainty in the forecasts of the planned profit is developed. It is based on the selling price of the metal recovered from the ore and the production per shift of the excavators. These two critical variables characterise the economic and technical aspects of the mining venture. Time-series methodology is used to describe the behaviour of the economic variable, which improves the adequacy of the modelling. A hypothetical open-pit gold mine is used to illustrate the application of the model. Results obtained show that the model is a good alternative to sensitivity analysis in taking account of the stochastic character of the price of the metal recovered from the excavated ore and the production per shift of the excavators used. The model can be extended by the inclusion of new variables that have a probabilistic nature

Dec 1, 1996

By John Gamble

This paper summarizes the weight of epidemiological evidence to evaluate the hypothesis that asbestos exposure is causally associated with increased risk of gastrointestinal (GI) cancers as suggested by Selikoff in an early study of insulation workers. This review looks at populations that develop GI cancers, namely stomach, colorectal, colon and rectal. Guidelines for assessing causality are strength of association, biological gradient and consistency of the associations. Exposure?response (E?R) was evaluated using three methods to estimate exposure. Rate Ratios (RRs) for lung cancer and percent of mesothelioma are used as surrogate measures of asbestos exposure for all the cohorts of exposed workers. Quantitative or semi-quantitative estimates of cumulative exposure to asbestos were also used to assess E?R trends and were compared to E?R trends for lung cancer and mesothelioma in individual studies. Surrogate measures are important since there are few individual studies that have assessed E?R. None of the various methods to estimate asbestos exposure yielded consistent E?R trends and the strength of the associations were consistently weak or non-existent for the four types of GI cancers. The epidemiological evidence detracts from the hypothesis that occupational asbestos exposure increases the risk of stomach, colorectal, colon, and rectal cancer. Findings are briefly summarized below. © 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Asbestos; Colon cancer; Colorectal cancer; Gastrointestinal cancers; Ingestion; Lung cancer; Mesothelioma; Rectal cancer; Review; Stomach cancer

Jan 1, 2007

By K. Bounou, K. Komnitsas

"Risk quantification may be used as a sustainable development index in the mining industry, since it encompasses both economic and social factors. In addition, it may assist in the development of a framework, which is also indirectly related to sustainable development, to prevent accidents and improve health and safety standards. However, risk quantification in the mineral sector involves diverse activities and is considered a very difficult task. Although statistical data report accident severity rates, incident rates and accident frequency rates, none of these allow for accurate risk calculations. In this paper, two risk calculation formulas, which may be used to quantify risk, as well as to identify hazardous activities in a workplace, are proposed. Numerical examples are given based on statistical data available through the MSHA database. Also a combination of a decision/fault/event tree that allows risk quantification is presented."

Jan 1, 2005

By A. Yazadni-Chamzini

Risk ranking of projects is one of the importance parts of the complicated risk management procedure. Recognizing the riskiest criteria enable the managers to plan for risk reduction. The first stage for meeting this aim is defining the risky parameters and then working to establish order between them. There are variety methods for risk ranking. The ELECTRE method is one of the best among the multi criteria decision making methods. In this paper with implementing the fuzzy ELECTRE, The risky criteria in the Tehran Subway project are being ranked. The result of this research presents damage and accident of machineries as well as the lack of labor and equipment safety is located in the first order. Collapse factors and local prices are in second rank. Also wrong design, pollution, urban facilities damageable are in third to fifth respectively. Delay and ? are located in the last positions.

Jan 1, 2012

By Mark Kennedy, Allan MacRae, Cameron Hams

New technology projects, particularly those involving first-of-a-kind metallurgical facilities, have a poor track record of achieving their overall financial targets, as they incorporate technological risks in addition to normal project risks. Traditional project management tools focus on risk from concept development through implementation, but typically fail to address the additional risks associated with a new technology project including slow start-up, slow ramp-up, and failure to achieve design performance (quality or throughput). These additional risks affect future cash flows produced by the project and hence its value, typically measured as net present value (NPV) or internal rate of return (IRR). Common accounting practice is to reduce the present value of future cash flows by applying a chosen discount rate, often reflecting the corporation's cost of capital. This discount rate does not contain an allowance for technological risk, which is often underestimated or misunderstood by both the financial and engineering project managers. This paper will focus on the topic of project risk and new technology, and how these play a role in the probability of achieving the predicted future cash flows. By properly addressing technological risk in the form of risk-weighted returns, marginal projects can be prevented from proceeding, while sound projects can be given the additional time and resources required to achieve the optimal level of front-end-loading (the level which returns the maximum risk-weighted net present value). A simple set of mathematical tools should enable engineers and financial professionals to establish a common level of understanding, thereby leading to a more accurate assessment whether a new technology project is ready to pass through its next level of approvals.

Jan 1, 2011

By Mark Kennedy

New technology projects, particularly those involving first-of-a-kind metallurgical facilities, have a poor track record of achieving their overall financial targets, as they incorporate technological risks in addition to normal project risks. Traditional project management tools focus on risk from concept development through implementation, but typically fail to address the additional risks associated with a new technology project including slow start-up, slow ramp-up, and failure to achieve design performance (quality or throughput). These additional risks affect future cash flows produced by the project and hence its value, typically measured as net present value (NPV) or internal rate of return (IRR). Common accounting practice is to reduce the present value of future cash flows by applying a chosen discount rate, often reflecting the corporation?s cost of capital. This discount rate does not contain an allowance for technological risk, which is often underestimated or misunderstood by both the financial and engineering project managers. This paper will focus on the topic of project risk and new technology, and how these play a role in the probability of achieving the predicted future cash flows. By properly addressing technological risk in the form of risk-weighted returns, marginal projects can be prevented from proceeding, while sound projects can be given the additional time and resources required to achieve the optimal level of front-end-loading (the level which returns the maximum risk-weighted net present value). A simple set of mathematical tools should enable engineers and financial professionals to establish a common level of understanding, thereby leading to a more accurate assessment whether a new technology project is ready to pass through its next level of approvals.

Jan 1, 2013

By M Barker, H Li

The total number of tailings accidents has reduced from over 50/decade in the 1960s-1980s to less than 30/decade in the 2000s to 2010s. However, the rate of significant tailings dam failures has not been reduced. The significant tailings dam failures the mining industry experienced in the recent history include: Merriespruit, South Africa, 1994; Los Frails, Spain, 1998; Kolontár, Hungry, 2010; Mount Polley, Canada, 2014; and Samarco, Brazil, 2015. The conventional Factor of Safety approach itself may not be enough to further reduce the rate of significant tailings failures due to its limitations such as uncertainty. For example, the same factor of safety could have a vast range of annual probability of failure for different tailings dams, and insufficient consideration of failure consequence. This paper presents a risk based approach for design with the objective being to minimise tailings dam failures, especially those significant tailings failures with high consequence and low probability. This approach includes risk based design and risk management using bowtie tools. In the risk based design, quantitative analysis will be used to estimate the annual probability of failure and the tolerable failure criteria is linked to the consequence category. Bowtie analyses will be used to understand hazards and risks and identify and select independent controls that are effective in preventing and mitigating catastrophic failures. In this paper, examples of risk based design and bowtie analyses are presented and discussed. CITATION:Li, H and Barker, M, 2018. Risk-based approach for minimising tailings dam failures, in Proceedings Mine Waste and Tailings Stewardship Conference 2018, pp 397–414 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Jul 23, 2018

By P. A. Davies

Paper presented at the conference: Risk assessment in the extractive industries, held in Exeter, UK, 23-24 March 1994, and first published London: IMM, 1994, preprint volume, 11pp., 15 refs. Hazards such as vibration, dust emission and fragment projection can result in an area called the Danger Zone being set around a blasting site. Traditionally Danger Zones have been set solely on the basis of consequences (e.g. based on the maximum distance of rock projection or expected ground vibration plus a defined safety margin). Advances in risk assessment and its growing acceptance as a safety management tool have led to the setting of Danger Zones based on both consequences and frequency of occurrence. This allows distances to be optimised on the basis of acceptable risk levels rather than the potential consequences of infrequent events. The setting of a flyrock Danger Zone is used to demonstrate a risk-based approach compared with a traditional consequence approach

Aug 1, 1995

By Samuel J. Gambino

Preliminary recommendations for the Upper Northwest Interceptor 1&2 specified installation of reinforced concrete pipe using pipe-jacking methods. However, a larger one-pass tunnel constructed using precast segmental lining would provide additional storage volume. The risk of encountering unexpected conditions or events and the resulting cost impacts could differ significantly for these two options. A probabilistic life-cycle cost analysis of these alternatives was performed. This paper discusses the construction alternatives considered, the risk assessment methodology used to evaluate these alternatives, the input parameters and risk factors used in this analysis, and the recommended project which is currently being constructed.

Jan 1, 2008

By Andreas Bienz

The safety of persons from accidental explosions and fires during manufacture, storage, transport etc. of explosives, pyrotechnics, propellants, firework and ammunition is most commonly assessed according to prescriptive rule-based approach: Safety is given when all requirements which are listed in numerous regulations and directives (such as e.g. safety distances, limited quantities, protective installations etc.) are complied with. Such a deterministic prescriptive rule-based approach is quite easy to apply but has got disadvantages, however: The actual state of safety in a specific case is not explicitly and quantitatively expressed, and it is not distinguished between the endangered individuals and the whole group. As a result, the effects of the safety measures cannot be measured. This is why uneconomical and in the worst case useless safety precautions cannot be avoided. In addition, waivers are difficult to negotiate, meaningful and sound arguments for pro and con being lacking.

Jan 1, 2007

By J J. Robinson, B N. Noller, D M. Franks, G McIlveen, D R. Mulligan, A T. Soro

Fiji is a developing nation that relies on economic opportunities and recently experienced increased interest in mining and mineral exploration that could potentially benefit the country. In order to understand the lack of, or failure of, past rehabilitation activity, this study applied risk-based approaches to identify the significance of activities or actions applicable to rehabilitation of post-mined land in Fiji. This involved the use of qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative risk methodologies, which allow assessment and evaluation of mechanisms of mining administration and practices, as well as rehabilitation methods and approaches that have been applied successfully to post-mined land in other countries with similar environmental and climatic conditions and social and regulatory environments to Fiji. The semi-quantitative risk-based technique followed an earlier approach applied for mine closure by Laurence (2006) and provided a systematic way to assess and evaluate rehabilitation issues that were identified on-site by assessors, who were able to estimate through expert judgement the likelihood and consequences based on conditions, situations observed and circumstances on-site. It demonstrated that experienced professionals could reproducibly score likelihood and consequence of selected items relevant to mine site rehabilitation, despite the wide-ranging issues identified during post mined land rehabilitation. The quantitative risk-based approach was adopted as a method to determine environmental bonds for mining projects using the assessment of consequences and likelihood results from the semi-quantitative approach, then incorporating unit cost of materials or activities for local conditions required to fully rehabilitate each issue at net present value. Application to both an abandoned mine site and a newly opened mine site in Fiji showed that this approach could provide a risk-based estimate for rehabilitation cost and demonstrated potential applicable in the Fijian context.CITATION:Soro, A T, Mulligan, D R, McIlveen, G, Franks, D M, Robinson, J J and Noller, B N, ?2014. Risk-based Rehabilitation Strategies for Post-mined Land in Fiji, in Proceedings Life-of-Mine 2014 , pp 165–180 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Jul 16, 2014

By T. Dlokweni, M. Bester, C. Koegelenberg, I. Basson

Certain degrees of safety, economic, and financial risk are implicit in any mining operation. At Thabazimbi Mine, slope stability was one of the major sources of risk, largely due to data uncertainties. Consequently, a risk-based approach in slope design was followed. On 6 June 2015, a slope failure occurred in Thabazimbi Mine’s Kumba pit, involving approximately 65 million tonnes of rock failing into the pit and the valley below. Although the failed mass moved rapidly and resulted in a run-out distance of approximately 900 m, controls had been put in place to successfully evacuate all personnel. Risk assessment during the onset of failure supported the decision to not compromise the safety of personnel in any way, leading to unavoidable equipment loss. This contribution presents the failure as a case study in the context of a risk-based approach to slope design as well as the importance of implementing geotechnical controls to effectively manage slope instability risk. Furthermore, a comprehensive back-analysis was performed, on a fully constrained 3D model, utilising 3DEC software, to gain insights into the failure mechanism. In conclusion, lessons from the Thabazimbi slope failure are valuable as they demonstrate the importance of following a risk-based approach in slope design to effectively manage safety and financial risk in open pit mines.

Sep 1, 2025

By Reinhard Gertl, Soroush Dabiri, Juan-Carlos de Rueda

The Tunnel of Guillermo Gaviria Echeverri, spanning 6.05 miles, will be Latin America’s longest road tunnel, is currently under construction in Colombia’s Antioquia Department with a single bidirectional tube connected to a parallel rescue tube through multiple cross-passages. The study faces challenges in implementing the prescriptive semitransversal ventilation system due to design restrictions. Different ventilation concepts are eplored to nd the most suitable system for regular operation and re scenarios. A quantitative ris assessment evaluates each alternative system and identies the longitudinal ventilation system, accompanied by ris mitigation measures, as the safest choice, since it surpasses the prescribed semitransversal ventilation concept.

Jun 23, 2024

By Franco Oboni, Iain G. Bruce

The design of tailings containment structures relies on well-understood engineering methods being applied consistently. Unfortunately, not all facilities are designed or managed to the same level of competency. To standardize procedures, the Mining Association of Canada (MAC, 1998) prepared a “Guide to Tailings Management.” It recommended review of designs and an assessment of the risks associated with tailings impoundments be implemented during all phases of amine life. This paper describes how the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) process can be used to define risks associated with the design, construction and operation of a tailings management facility. And it discusses how, once the risk tolerability curves (RTC) are defined for a project, they can assist the risk management (RM) process.

Jan 1, 2002

By J Harris, J Li, M Shi, P A. Kirsch, D Sprott

Australia has an enviable global reputation as a leader in health and safety outcomes in the hazardous industry of mining, in part due to an increased application of risk management regarding operational planning and mining practice. In 2010, the Australian Coal Association Research Program (ACARP) initiated a major project, RISKGATE, to build, capture and deliver a national body of knowledge to assist companies with the management of risk in coal mining. The online system contains information for tyres, collisions, fires, isolation, strata underground, ground control open cut, explosions, explosives underground, explosives open cut, manual tasks, slips/trips/falls, outbursts, coal bumps and bursts, human–machine interface, tailings dams, occupational hygiene and inrush. In 2014, RISKGATE is developing content for fitness for work (fatigue, drugs, alcohol, physical well-being, psychosocial well-being).This paper analyses underground mining fatalities in Australia and the United States since 2002 and introduces RISKGATE with a focus on the knowledge base for management of hazards in underground operations. Through capturing coal industry expert operational knowledge, RISKGATE provides a cumulative corporate memory at a time of high personnel turnover within the mining industry. This coal-based body of knowledge is a platform that can be evaluated and implemented for other mining domains and high-risk industries within the energy supply chain.CITATION:Kirsch, P A, Shi, M, Harris, J, Li, J and Sprott, D, 2014. RISKGATE and underground operations, in Proceedings 12th AusIMM Underground Operators’ Conference 2014 , pp 11–18 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Mar 24, 2014

By P Bergin, J M. Galvin, J Harris, J Li, P Kirsch, M Shi, B Hebblewhite, B Whittaker, R Mitra, D Sprott

Controlling unwanted ground movement is critical in mining as well as many other highly hazardous environments, such as construction and tunnelling. Sharing knowledge about effective hazard management is paramount to improving health and safety and operational outcomes across industries, and some industry sectors have embraced this openness as part of the way that they do business. In 2010, the Australian Coal Association Research Program funded the RISKGATE project to build a body of knowledge for managing a broad range of hazards across mine sites, lease areas and mine infrastructure within a mine-life or product life cycle perspective (eg from exploration through to decommissioning, or design through to operation). The RISKGATE body of knowledge was assembled from Australian coal industry experts through a semi-structured bowtie analysis-based action research workshop cycle. By capturing operational knowledge from industry experts, RISKGATE serves to provide a cumulative corporate memory at a time of high personnel turnover in the coal industry.This paper presents an overview of RISKGATE topics within the geological and geotechnical domain (strata underground, ground control open cut, outburst, coal bumps and bursts, tailings dams and inrush) with a summary of individual topic structures, as well as showing the contrasts and inter-relationships between these ground management topics. The online user can access information about the causes, controls and consequences related to a priority unwanted event (ie the point at which control of energy is lost) and use this information as a prompt for the development of risk assessments, incident investigation, audits of practice/plans/procedures and for training and development.The paper concludes with a discussion of how RISKGATE can be adapted to other mining domains (eg coal outside of Australia, hard rock mining worldwide, construction, tunnelling) and the opportunity for application of this body of knowledge and the RISKGATE action research process for knowledge management in other highly hazardous environments.CITATION:Kirsch, P, Hebblewhite, B, Sprott, D, Harris, J, Li, J, Shi, M, Whittaker, B, Galvin, J M, Bergin, P, Mitra R and Williams, D, 2014. RISKGATE – shared coal mining knowledge for managing risks across ground management, in Proceedings AusRock 2014: Third Australasian Ground Control in Mining Conference , pp 247–254 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Nov 5, 2014

By A. Karzhau, B. Aldamzharov, Y. Tussupbekov

"This case study produced for the metal mine operating in Kazakhstan, which has ventilation controlled manually and working continuously at maximum speed to keep air flowing through each part of the mine 24 hours a day. The mine auxiliary ventilation has been designed with the maximum length of ducting systems with extra air volumes to compensate for potential leakage. The mine provided auxiliary ventilation to all production stopes even to those, which for various operating reasons become temporarily inactive. However, mine safety has to consider risks associated with the deficit of fresh air for mine gases dilution and removal. The mine needs additional investments for re-designing ventilation network and therefore needs to estimate financial risks associated with it. The aim of this study is to conduct risk analysis for ventilation network optimisation processes at the operational metal mine in Kazakhstan. Mine ventilation surveys were undertaken for validation of the computerised ventilation model. The mine ventilation network modelling has been undertaken to be compliant with Kazakhstan mining regulations. Results of the mine ventilation optimisation processes were analysed in terms of financial risks for investments into reconstruction of the ventilation shafts, extension of the ventilation network, variable speed fans and automated regulators. Savings were resulted from improving ventilation system efficiency by reduce airflow in areas without mining activity and redistributing existing ventilation capacity. Based on savings derived from the optimised ventilation network an additional NPV has been received. Stochastic modelling use Monte Carlo simulation producing representation of possible outcomes for the additional NPV considering electricity pricing as a major variability. As result probability distribution for the optimised ventilation network demonstrates the additional NPV in a range of 1.6 - 2.2 million US$ in the corresponding defined value of 90%. Moreover, there is only 5% chance that the additional NPV to be less than 1.5 million US$. Conducted risk analysis for ventilation network optimisation processes gives considerations on volume of investments into the mine ventilation system.INTRODUCTIONCosts for mine ventilation are typically increasing when mines expand to deep levels. Some underground mines in Kazakhstan still use continuously operating fans at its maximum capacity. This is not helping to save energy and costs that are in many cases very significant. This case study produced for the metal mine operating in Kazakhstan, which has ventilation controlled manually and working continuously at maximum speed to keep air flowing through each part of a mine 24 hours a day. The mine auxiliary ventilation has been designed with maximum length of ducting systems and extra air volumes to compensate for potential leakage. The mine provided auxiliary ventilation to all production stopes even to those, which for various operating reasons become temporarily inactive. However, mine safety has to consider risks associated with the deficit of fresh air for mine gases dilution and removal from the mine workings (Sabanov, 2019). The mine needs additional investments for re-designing ventilation networks and therefore need to estimate financial risks associated with it. The aim of this study is to conduct risk analysis for ventilation networks optimisation processes at the operational mine in Kazakhstan. Mine ventilation surveys for validation of the computerised ventilation model have been undertaken"

Jan 1, 2019

By J. R. Donald

For processing copper, continuous converting has been successfully employed in a variety of locations, but for nickel, there has yet to be a successful commercial implementation of continuous converting technology. At Inco?s Copper Cliff smelter, there are specific requirements for the production of Bessemer matte relating to downstream processing that makes continuous converting for nickel mattes even more challenging. The nickel carbonyl refineries require very low iron levels in the matte, and the sulphur deficiency must be carefully controlled such that the appropriate quantity of PGM-rich metallics are produced from matte separation. The present paper outlines continuous converter technologies that have been implemented in copper, and evaluates their potential for nickel converting. The challenges of producing a Bessemer matte to the required specifications are discussed. The economic and environmental driving forces, and the challenges of justifying a novel technology in place of productive existing equipment, are discussed.

Jan 1, 2005

A study was undertaken to investigate the relationship between the quantity and value of economic demonstrated resources discovered for 12 mineral commodities over a ten year period and the expenditure required to yield such mineable resources. The results showed that for every dollar spent on exploration, there is an apparent in-ground average value of around $54 dollars contained in the economic resources found. While this appears to be a satisfactory return, it should be remembered that more than 99.9% of exploration programs are judged to be failures because a viable ore body or mineral deposit was not proved up. What is behind this seeming paradox?   The fundamental truth behind mineral exploration is the fact that the more you explore, the more you find, and that one success will often lead to further discoveries. It appears that one rich and viable deposit creates such surplus that its inherent high value ('the pot of gold') makes up for all the failures. In short, mineral exploration is a high risk business with uncertain returns. However, with skill, enthusiasm, experience and venture capital, it can yield larger than normal returns for the brave and the fortunate.   Analysis of exploration expenditure and economic resources discovered for the period 1987 to 1996 revealed that the apparent in-ground value of economic ore discovered per dollar of exploration expenditure varied from a high of $429 for iron ore and $261 for bauxite to a low of $22 for gold and for lead, and $5 per dollar of diamond exploration expenditure. Preliminary conclusions drawn on the reasons for the variations observed include the inherent ease or difficulty of discovery for different mineral commodities which may in some cases, relate to the natural prospectivity of Australia as a whole. Layered deposits like iron ore and bauxite appear to yield higher in-ground value returns on the exploration dollar. To some explorationists, this may be considered as seemingly obvious, but it may have more to do with very large-exploration tenement grants pursued by various Australian State Governments in the early 1950s and 1960s than the apparent ease of delineating a stratabound deposit.   Despite the apparent relatively low in-ground value produced by the gold exploration dollar of $22, the 5660 tonnes of gold discovered in this ten year period was worth $9.1 billion and representing over a quarter of the new mineral wealth created in the ten years to 1996. This contribution, along with that from the other minerals discovered over the period, led to a significant boost to Australia's export income and standard of living.   It is concluded that, given the nexus between the amount of mineral exploration expenditure and the quantity of new resources likely to be discovered, this knowledge may help policy makers seek to influence the rate of resource discovery in countries like Australia for the benefit of the nation.

Jan 1, 2004

By W. C. Joughin

Problems with the stability and performance of rockpasses in deep-level mines are common. This paper presents the results of an investigation into the recorded performance of rockpasses in deep-level gold mines. Records relevant to the geological environment in which the passes are excavated, their excavation details, and their historical performance are not at all well documented on mines. In general, the quality of data available from mines is poor. The investigation showed that very large spans frequently developed in passes during use, and that rock mass quality, the orientation of the pass with respect to the dip of the strata, and the magnitude of the stress acting normal to the axis of the pass were the main factors of influence. From the historical information obtained, the risks of instability in rockpasses are identified.

Jan 1, 2005