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By O. D. Staman

The risk assessment project examines the likelihood of inorganic contaminants from copper dump-leaching operations to contaminate domestic water supplies. The project examines contaminant transport by modeling contaminant movement from the base of a leach pile through the unsaturated zone and into the saturated zone. The modeling effort is unique in that it models infiltration, contaminant transport in the unsaturated and saturated zone combined with geochemical modeling of the unsaturated zone. The project incorporates probability theory to reflect the uncertainty of hydrogeologic parameters.

Jan 1, 1994

By W Patton

Investment decisions in the mineral resources sector are made on the basis of an assessment of the economic potential for a mineral deposit. Given the supporting information for the location, scale, and quantity of the commodity of interest, miners and investors aim to make risk-informed decisions when considering further investment. The objective of resource classification is the synthesis of various types and quantities of geologic information used in resource model construction to assign confidence categories to the estimated mineral resources, which can then be used to support informed economic decisions. In this paper a risk-based classification scheme for iron ore mineral resources using conditional simulations is presented. The method involves categorisation of each block according to a confidence level, considering expected recoveries from a kriging model over mining production volumes. The realisations of the simulated model are used to assign risk-based confidence categories to zones of the ore deposit. One motivation for this work is to assess the sensitivity of the scheme to geologic uncertainties. Specifically, that which uncertainty in the layout of mineralising alterations and weathering overprints influence variabilities of associated rock properties and the likelihood of obtaining expected ore recoveries. It is shown these risks have material implications for a project’s economic potential. How the scheme can be extended to the grade control context and the value subsequent grade control activities is also quantified.

May 24, 2023

By Peter Fischer, Heinz-Jiirgen Kateloe, Anton Sroka, Axel Preusse

"Since mining in Germany has a long history, there are still many locations where the surface fracture problem has to be solved. Shallow mine workings from an earlier era can affect the surface in a discontinuous way. In many cases, due to light overburden load, those mine rooms did not collapse and a downfall can suddenly happen for many reasons, e.g., in connection with a changed load entry into the subsurface or by additional influence of water. This results in ground movements, which in extreme cases, appear as surface fractures.Depending on the use of the surface, ground movements caused in such a way constitute an endangerment by law. Particularly, within the southern Ruhr district, surface fracture and subsidence endangered ranges are determined on the basis of an empirical method that resulted from a systematic evaluation of surface fractures and rock disclosures. This method indicates maximum ranges within which impacts from abandoned shallow mine workings must be assumed.With a special emphasis on a risk management approach, RWTH Aachen University adapted the model of stochastic media to the conditions of abandoned shallow mining to compute and illustrate potential ground movements due to the collapse of shallow mine workings. Further investigations were concerned with the analysis of characteristic parameters which can serve for the assessment of the surface fracture probability in a comparative view of different cases. In recent years, more than 50 surface fractures in the southern Ruhr district were analyzed in order to develop a risk assessment of surface fracture endangered ranges over shallow mine workings. The results that have been obtained so far are described in this paper.INTRODUCTIONAbandoned underground mine workings of shallow depth can pose a threat to the surface. Due to small overburden rock loads, shallow excavations often remain intact for decades after the operations have ceased and may collapse abruptly (Braemer et al., 2005; Hollmann and Nuerenberg, 1972; Preusse et al., 2007). Several approaches for prognosis of surface fracture resulting from 97 subsurface collapse deal with this topic (Loebel and Sroka, 2001; Tajdus and Sroka, 2009)."

Jan 1, 2010

By R. K. Dunham, D. J. Reddish, X. L. Yao

Paper presented at the conference: Risk assessment in the extractive industries, held in Exeter, UK, 23-24 March 1994, and first published London: IMM, 1994, preprint volume, 10pp., 10 refs. The integrated approach combines a powerful ground movement prediction program with a knowledge-based expert system. ESDAS (Expert Structural Damage Assessment System) was developed to evaluate mining subsidence damage in the form of risk and in terms of the three vital contributing components (mining factors, site factors and structural factors). Using a certainty factor risk assessment technique, the system can be used to predict the likely damage to a particular structure subjected to mining subsidence. A previously developed powerful ground movement prediction program, SWIFT (Subsidence With Influence Function Techniques), has been combined with the expert system to allow the mining factor to be more accurately determined in a broader range of mining layout. Since SWIFT can be calibrated to any particular coal field using local subsidence data, it is believed that the integrated system could be used in any coal field worldwide for the assessment and control of mining subsidence damage risks

Dec 1, 1995

By R. Strydom, J. H. Selby, J. Slabbert, W. Enslin

Zircon is a naturally occurring silicate of zirconium, which is used in large quantities (~1 million tonnes per annum) for its refractory properties and its extreme chemical inertness. All zircons contain uranium and thorium bound into the crystal lattice, generally at levels up to 500 ppm of uranium plus thorium. This paper focuses on one aspect of the zircon industry—the ability to safely transport large quantities of zircon sand. Currently zircon is not classified as a radioactive material for transport purposes. However, this is because of a factor used in the exemption clauses of the IAEA code on safe transport of radioactive materials. The objective of this study was to determine the validity of this factor, and was submitted as part of an IAEA Coordinated Research Project (CRP). The study is based primarily on measured rather than modelled data and covers the transport of large quantities of zircon from producers in South Africa to customers in Europe. Both occupational exposure of workers and exposure of members of the public have been considered. The transport routes studied cover rail, road, ocean-going ship and inland barge transport of unpackaged bulk products. The study showed that the most exposed member of the public would receive 10µSv/annum,while the most exposed worker would receive 144µSv/annum of exposure. It is concluded that these levels are well below all regulatory limits for such activities involving naturally occurring materials. The study also showed that normal operational exposures are higher than those in accident scenarios, a feature which does not occur with higher activity materials. It is further concluded that the study validates the use of the factor of 10 in TS-R-1, as applied to zircon sand. Additionally it is also concluded that the exemption currently applied to the transportation of bulk zircon sand is valid.

Jan 1, 2003

By Joshua Hoffman, Rob Farnfield, Catherine Johnson, Braden Lusk, Morgan Lane

IMESAFR (IME Safety Analysis for Risk) is a quantitative risk assessment software tool developed by the Institute of Makers of Explosives (IME) and A-P-T Research, Inc. It is used for managing risk in the commercial explosives industry, the newest version of the software was completed in 2012. This paper discusses the use of this software package in conjunction with data collected for a television series on the reenactment of the ‘London Blitz’, a 57-day bombing of the City of London in 1940. In this reenactment, purpose built structures using period design and materials were constructed at a test facility in the North of England. Five devices ranging in size from 20 kg (44 lb) to 1100 kg (2400 lb) were detonated at varying distances from the structures; each blast was monitored by EPC-UK and the resulting structural damage was analyzed. Data recorded from the blasts included high-speed videos, photographs before and after each event and air overpressure readings. The same data was inputted into the IMESAFR software package to assess the risk imposed on the residents of London during this time. The appropriateness of this tool for evaluating structures built using historical practices is discussed. Data from the full scale tests is compared to effects predicted by IMESAFR. Further analysis of the risk recommendations produced by IMESAFR is compared to the actual damage assessed during the large scale tests.

Jan 1, 2014

By P. J. Foster

A common theme running through recently introduced mining health and safety legislation in many parts of the world is risk assessment. Most recently, risk assessment legislation has been introduced across the mining industry of South Africa and the view that the introduction of risk assessment based legislation provides an ideal opportunity to improve on past health and safety performance is presented. Risk assessment techniques range from highly complex safety system techniques that are used in high technology process industries, to subjective techniques based on simple judgements that are finding use in many other industries. The objective of this paper is to shed some light on risk assessment, not by detailing the risk assessment process but by identifying the crucial elements that need to be considered if risk assessments are to be successful in changing health and safety performance. A case study is presented illustrating the introduction of risk assessment into the Ingwe Coal Corporation, one of South Africa?s largest mining houses, to indicate how the system was developed and how it is being used.

Jan 1, 1998

By L W. Palmer

"Evaluating the geological risk associated with ore deposits is becoming common practice in the mining industry. While geostatistical simulation is a useful tool for evaluating this risk, the effect of applying different types of simulation is less understood. For simulation of categorical variables like rock types, available methods perform simulation in fundamentally different ways. In this study, the geological risk relevant for informed mine planning is studied with two categorical simulation methods, PluriGaussian Simulation (PGS) and Sequential Indicator Simulation (SIS). Risk is expressed as a probability of repeated occurrence of lithological units in the same location across simulations. Significant differences are observed between the methods in terms of spatial distribution of risk. To identify the most plausible risk model, the input parameters at every step of both techniques are scrutinised. PGS and SIS inputs are classified as four parameters that are: fundamental to implementation of the methodfixed to enable comparison of PGS and SISdetermined by user interpretation, hence variablenormally optimised during application of PGS and SIS. The effect of parameter selection from categories 1 and 4 on the risk model is investigated using drill core data from a leucogranite deposit. A corresponding block model is created for assigning outputs from PGS and SIS. Risk models produced by either method are illustrated in a cut-out from the block model to enable bench-by-bench comparison. For PGS, risk associated with relatively rare lithologies is relatively sensitive to variation of parameters. Independent of the abundance of lithology, a location-dependent effect of variogram and vertical proportion curve parameter selection is observed, with risk increasing towards the deposit edge. Although SIS requires fewer inputs, single lithologies must be modelled in turn. Using small numbers of samples in the search neighbourhood, all risk models differ substantially. For larger numbers of samples, the risk models are similar. Overall it appears that the risk model produced using SIS is less sensitive to changes than PGS but further work is required to confirm this.CITATION:Palmer, L W and Glass, H J, 2014. Risk associated with rock type prediction using simulation techniques, in Proceedings Ninth International Mining Geology Conference 2014 , pp 217–228 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne)."

Aug 18, 2014

By Greg Wieland

Deep sewer tunnels are required to meet future growth demands of the City of Austin?s down-town redevelopment. The tunnel is 18,000 ft long and varies in finished diameter from 54 inches to 96 inches. The tunnel crosses under Austin?s Town Lake three times and there are four main work shaft sites. Geology, groundwater, foundations, downtown redevelopment, and an active, healthy community put significant constraints on the design. This paper discusses a major underground project for downtown Austin and discusses the risk considerations and the opportunities the design team took toward optimizing the project design for the construction phase.

Jan 1, 2008

By John Meuth, Brandon Fryman, P. E. Hoffman, Joshua Ph. D., P. E. Calnan, Josh Ph. D.

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be specifically tailored for use by the commercial explosives industry to calculate risk to employees and the public from commercial explosives facilities and operations. This methodology has several advantages over the American Table of Distances (ATD) which is solely a Quantity Distance (Q/D) analysis. While the ATD has remained essentially the same for 100 years, the safety of commercial explosives in storage has increased immensely. However, the concepts behind QRA calculations are not as intuitive and even at the end of the calculations the values of risk must be compared to something. A few regimes for assessing an acceptable level of risk are discussed in this paper. Risk levels for various United States Federal entities and international agencies are highlighted and suggestions for acceptable risk criteria for individuals and groups are provided. Referencing risk levels from normal daily activities is also done in this paper to make relative the accepted risk criteria. This paper presents some relevant individual risks for everyday activities and some scenarios for group risk for comparison. Individual risk is a straightforward concept however group risk is more complicated. This paper aims to clarify these concepts and provide means to communicate them to the public.

Jan 1, 2019

By Michael Samis

The real option valuation method is often presented as an alternative to the conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) approach because it is able to recognize additional project value due to the presence of management flexibility. However, these two valuation methods can be separated on a more fundamental level by their differences in risk discounting. Real option valuation applies the risk-adjustment to the source of uncertainty in the cash flow while the DCF method adjusts for risk at the aggregate level of net cash flow. This seemingly small difference is the reason why the real option method is able to differentiate between projects according to each project?s unique risk characteristics while the conventional DCF approach cannot. This paper provides an overview of the real options and DCF valuation frameworks and discusses the differences in risk discounting that exist between the two methods. Using grade-school mathematics, this paper clearly demonstrates how, with real options, a unique project risk discount can be calculated which is directly linked to the project?s unique risk profile. It also highlights why the DCF method fails in this regard and shows why a call to ?increase the Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate? is an incomplete solution at best. Finally, a heap-leach project and satellite reserve development project are valued with both techniques and the difference in investment conclusions is explained in terms of the risk-discounting concepts discussed here.

May 1, 2003

By Limao Zhang

This paper presents a BIM-based Risk Identification Expert System (B-RIES) for metro construction, composed of three main built-in subsystems: BIM extraction, knowledge base management, and risk identification subsystems. The engineering parameter information related to risk factors is extracted from the BIM of a specific project where the IFC standard plays a bridge role between the BIM data and metro construction safety risks. An integrated knowledge base, consisting of fact base, rule base and case base, is established to systematize the fragmented explicit and tacit knowledge. A hybrid inference approach, with case-based reasoning and rule-based reasoning included, is developed to improve the flexibility and comprehensiveness of the system reasoning capacity. During the safety risk identification process, B-RIES is able to improve the inefficiencies in engineering information extraction, reduce the dependence on domain experts, and facilitate knowledge sharing and communication among dispersed clients and domain experts. A typical safety hazard identification in the Mingdu station, located in the Wuhan Metro Line Two, is presented in a case study. The results demonstrate the feasibility of B-RIES, and its application potential. B-RIES can be used as a decision support tool to provide guidelines for safety management in metro construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment.

Aug 1, 2013

By H. Simonsen

Risk assessment consists of a search for the answers to: ?What can happen? ?How likely it is that it can happen? ?What are the consequences if it does happen? Perhaps the most important aim of risk analysis is to predict the likelihood that a planned profit will be achieved over a given period of time. A typical risk model employed for this purpose includes a stochastic connection between the dependent variable of an expression that describes a process and independent variables represented as random quantities. The output will be a probabilistic distribution. The uncertainties in a planned mining operation include: ?Commodity market characteristics, particularly price ?Ore reserves and mineralogical composition ?Mining method ?Process performance ?Capital and operating costs ?Schedule duration ?Economic environment effects. The processes employed in the probabilistic estimation of a project?s outcome include both Monte Carlo simulations and simulations where variable correlation is considered important. The risk model, once developed and tested, provides a framework for a rational approach to risk analysis and the testing of alternatives.

Jan 1, 1999

Paper presented at the UK minerals industry conference and published in: Minerals extraction towards the millennium. UK minerals industry conference, 3-5 April 1995, University of Leeds. London: Institution of Mining and Metallurgy, 1995. The various types of risks that arise in minerals industry projects are usually financial, technical, or environmental, and the key to valid risk analysis is complete integration of all risks, both within and between categories. Geographical information systems (GIS) and geostatistical simulation methods can provide a means of integrating data and conducting realistic risk analyses. Risk can be quantified but there are limitations to numerical approaches to risk assessment. Realistic quantification requires adequate models of the processes that give rise to risk. Risk perception must also be taken into account when conducting risk assessment and reporting the results, especially in public forums. The modelling and visualisation capabilities of a combined GIS/simulation system can provide the means of dealing with perception in risk analysis

Jun 19, 1905

By A. M. Clegg

In general, overall experience has shown that the approach to the appointment of a project manager is given much attention, but little specific attention is given first to the risk associated with the project conceptual design and its overall executability within either the new legislative framework or the sustainability of the outcome. The risk in project executability and sustainability within the ?new age? legislative framework of the Mining Charter, etc, is itself however, of far greater importance. The degree of importance being defined by the intended projects impact on the business going forward. This is particularly the case where the intention of the implementation is effectively to turn around or even enhance a loss-making strategic investment like a mine or process plant operation in an ?old-order rights? or Brownfield?s operation. This paper attempts to highlight the importance of a ?pre-project project? (PPP) to mitigate the risk in the ?new age?, with specific reference to operational due diligence (ODD) and project conceptual design.

Jan 1, 2005

By Edward Holloway

The basis for the selection of the ultimate pit for an open-pit mining operation is generally opaque. Some form of value-based analysis will generally guide the final decision; however, the value will often gradually plateau while the ultimate pit size continues to increase. There is no established framework to guide specialists in the selection of the ultimate pit, with such decisions regularly made on a somewhat arbitrary basis. The key component that is missing from the analyses typically used to select the size of the ultimate pit is risk. Once risk is quantified within the analysis framework, the decision-mak-ing range is significantly reduced and the process for select-ing the ultimate pit becomes more consistent, replicable and defensible. The technique outlined in this paper provides an approach to including risk in the process used to select the ultimate pit.

Jun 1, 2024

By W. Abdellah

The purpose of this paper is to establish a qualitative method to estimate the risk level (e.g. rating and ranking) resulting from mining activity. Risk is the product of two factors: probability of failure and cost of consequences. A resultant assessment scale matrix is then used to assign a risk index value which is directly proportional to the potential for excavation instability. A case study, the No. 1 Shear East orebody at Vale?s Garson Mine in Sudbury, Ontario will be examined. A three-dimensional, elastoplastic, finite difference model (FLAC 3D) is presented for a mine development intersection situated 1.5 km below ground surface. The developed assessment scale matrix is used to estimate risk index for intersection (2981) located on 5000 level. The results are presented and categorized with respect to risk-index value, probability of instability, cost of consequence, and mining stage.

Jan 1, 2014

By R. L. Grayson, R. C. Althouse, L. A. Layne, M. J. Klishis

Introduction The researchers combine a detailed microanalysis of accident data and roof bolting field observations to develop new and meaningful risk indices for the roof bolter job classification. These indices incorporate information that has not been used in traditional measures of risk. The significant parameters that these new indices incorporate are the total number of accidents occurring within a particular work activity, the amount of time a miner usually spends performing the work activities in which the accidents occurred, and the average severity of the injuries incurred in the accidents. Being specific for a particular job, they aid comparisons among work tasks performed in the bolting cycle. The indices' specificity provide anew basis for reexamination of training and operational development of miners for specific jobs. Microanalysis The roof bolting microanalysis was performed by examining the empirical data and written summaries for all bolting accidents reported in the West Virginia Safety Information System (WVSIS) for the years 1983-1987. The WVSIS database contained more than 15,000 accident narratives. The microanalysis of bolting accidents covered 2083 reported personal injuries (RPIs). This large number of injuries, performed at an industry-wide level, provides a broad picture of the nature of roof bolting injuries. The analysis focuses on the activities associated with the cyclical routines of the roof bolting process. For this analysis, roof bolting tasks were categorized into work routines based on the sequence of work activities performed by roof bolters. Four work routines were identified within the overall bolting cycle. And these routines comprised 70% (1217) of all roof bolting accidents at the face. The routines include: face area preparation; tramming, positioning and setting the automated temporary roof support (ATRS); drilling holes; and installing bolts. The types of injuries most common within a routine and the average severity of those RPIs were also identified. Table 1 gives a breakdown of the percentage of accidents by the bolting routines. Another 19% of the roof bolting RPIs cannot be classified in a particular routine because of the vagueness of the narratives. However, it was clear that these accidents involved drilling holes or installing bolts. These results are consistent with previous research. It identified drilling and bolting, followed by tramming, as the most frequent sources of injuries (Helander, Krohn & Curtain, 1983). [Table 1-Accidents by bolting routines at the face Accidents Bolting routine Percent Number Face area preparation 18.2 222 Tram, position, ATRS 23.3 284 Drilling holes 34.2 416 Installing bolts 24.2 295 Total 1217] Roof bolter operators were involved in 82% (1706) of the 2083 accidents. The RPIs incurred by classified roof bolters occurred largely on working sections (95%) and at the face area on the working section (75%). Approximately 23% of the 1706 roof bolter RPIs occurred during tasks which were not part of the bolting cycle. These included belt utility work, providing supplies and section moves. Miners in other job classifications who were involved in roof bolting accidents accounted for the remaining 18% of the 2083 roof bolting RPIs. Among this group were section utility men and general laborers (41%), section machine operators (38%), and electricians and mechanics (11%). Another 9% were performing on-section supervisory functions. Face area preparation Face area preparation work led to a substantial number of injuries, although it accounted for the lowest number of injuries of the four routines. Several tasks were associated with the injuries incurred in this routine. Table 2 shows the percentage of injuries associated with face area preparation. [Table 2- Accidents occurring during face area preparation 26.6% Setting temporary and supplemental supports 24.8% Scaling roof and ribs 21.2% Installing ventilation devices 15.8% Handling supplies and materials 11.6% Miscellaneous tasks] The injuries commonly involved overexertion and 'struck by' falling coal and rock. Handling materials often led to overexertion injuries. Nearly 66% of the scaling-related injuries and about 33% of the injuries incurred during the setting of temporary supports involved 'strikes' by equipment, materials, top and rib. Tramming, positioning and setting the ATRS During tramming operations, workers were often struck by components of the machine and hit by loose roof and rib. Poor footing also led to slips, sometimes against the moving machinery. Table 3 gives a breakdown of accidents in this routine. Control levers were a significant problem in this routine.

Jan 1, 1993

By Willem Le Roux

The common law requires an employer to take reasonable steps for the safety of employees. In general, the duty of care means that the employer, acting personally or through its employees or agents, must take reasonable care for the safety of its employees (Van Deventer v Workmen?s Compensation Commissioner; 1962 (4) SA 28 T; Oosthuizen v Homegas (Pty) Ltd 1992 (3) SA 463 T).The duty of care includes the provision of safe premises, safe machinery and tools and a safe system of work. The obligation is not an absolute one, but is restricted by the concept of reasonableness. The common law duty may, in certain cases, include the assessment of hazards and risks. 2 International law Great emphasis has been placed in the Western world on the prevention of occupational diseases and injuries. Detailed statutes and regulations govern specific industries in many countries. See, e.g. the Control of Substances Hazardous to Health Regulations of the United Kingdom and various regulations applicable to the use of asbestos and lead, fire protection, mines and quarries, petroleum, etc. Risk management is an important part of managing health and safety. In the United Kingdom, the Management of Health and Safety at Work Regulations, 1999, require every employer to make a ?suitable and sufficient assessment of the risks to health and safety of his employees to which they are exposed whilst they are at work?. The particularity of the assessment is determined by the risk in question.

Jan 1, 2011

"A long-term mine production schedule optimization based on stochastic integer programming is presented that manages the risk due to geological variability and uncertainty while jointly considering mine profitability, truck fleet requirements and waste management. The evolution of the pit is controlled so that space within the mined-out pit is continuously provided to allow for tailings and waste rock to be replaced, thus minimizing the project’s environmental footprint. The method is applied at a taconite iron ore deposit and has a project net present value that is 16.9 percent higher than that of a conventional schedule and has a higher chance of meeting production forecasts. The stochastic schedule reduces equipment requirements by delaying waste mining and by mining selectively in order to meet plant ore feed requirements without stockpiling material, resulting in 23.7 and 26.2 percent lower mining capital and operating costs, respectively. IntroductionThe LabMag iron ore deposit is part of the Millennium Iron Range, a 210-km (130-mile) belt of taconite in northern Quebec and Labrador, Canada. LabMag has significant economic potential. It contains more than 3.3 Gt (3.6 billion st) of proven reserves at an average total iron content of 29.8 percent and is very low in impurities. However, on a project basis of 23 Mt/a (25 million stpy) of product, the required capital expenditure is estimated at more than $5 billion (SNC-Lavalin, 2014), which necessitates careful evaluation of all sources of risk. Resource estimation is one of the main sources of risk in a mining project as knowledge of the orebody is primarily based on drilling, which is often sparse because it is expensive. If the expected ore tonnages and qualities are not obtained when mining, the project cash flows are directly affected. The expected quantities and qualities of ore and waste are defined by the mine production schedule, which specifies the sequence of extraction and is dependent on the resource estimation. The goal of mine production scheduling is thus to maximize the expected profit, while also meeting all production targets and constraints, by creating an extraction schedule that is robust in the face of geological risk and has the highest chance possible of actually being realized."

Jan 10, 2017