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By A. P. Whittlestone, J. D. Johnson, R. J. Pine, M. E. Rogers

standpoint. The effect on efficiency of collisions

Apr 1, 1995

By A. Aly Selim, Bruce D. Hanson

A computer model capable of simulating the basic production system in a variety of underground mining methods has been developed at the U.S. Bureau of Mines Twin Cities Mining Research Center. The simulation of the basic production system at the working face, which includes drilling, blasting, mucking, and roof bolting, is described in this paper. The model is event-oriented; that is, the status of the system is updated at the occurrence of an event. All event or activity times, including failure and repair of equipment, are treated as stochastic variables. A location dimension, in addition to the time dimension, is used, allowing the simulation of systems with a number of stopes or faces. To aid the user in determining the efficiency of his system, the model provides several reports. An event or activity report gives the frequency of occurrence, total active time, and cumulative delay statistics for each event. An equipment report delineates the availability and utilization of all equipment. A production report provides information on various performance measures such as tons produced and holes drilled. The cost report gives the cost of various elements in the system. Operating data from an actual mining situation were used in validating the model. In addition to the description of the model, examples of simulation experiments which were performed on a room-and-pillar mine system are given. Use of the model to determine methods for improving the efficiency of the system is discussed.

Jan 1, 1976

By Neil T. Russo, Peter M. Kandaris, Jogi S. Gadok

"Assessment of subsurface data for foundation design in support of long high voltage electric transmission lines is best accomplished using a probabilistic strategy since only a small portion of structure locations are typically sampled. Probabilistic approaches provide a tool to evaluate site uncertainty in a systematic and rational manner. This paper provides a case history of a risk-based design approach for a recently completed 191-mile long 69/161/345kV steel monopole transmission line traversing Central Iowa. The project owner made available limited subsurface information at project initiation, requiring the design team to obtain additional data within a constrained budget for 1067 large diameter, laterally-loaded deep drilled shaft reinforced concrete piers. The team commissioned a geologic desktop study to reduce uncertainty in subsurface evaluations and aid in selecting additional sample sites. In total, investigation programs tested approximately 15 percent of structure sites. The paper details the probabilistic approach used to estimate foundation geotechnical design parameters, with information from the various studies categorizing strata both laterally and with depth. Low-bound parameters were estimated via a statistical approach at a predetermined reliability level. Significant savings resulted from this approach when compared to conservative deterministic processes. Project QA/QC logged subsurface soil conditions during foundation excavation, then compared as-found conditions to the conditions assumed for design. The team redesigned foundations if either a non-conservative variance in soil conditions was observed or if bedrock elevation differed significantly from design assumptions. As a result, only 22 out of 1067 foundations required modification during construction (2% variance from initial design) with negligible impact on the construction budget and schedule.INTRODUCTIONFoundation design for long high voltage transmission lines presents a unique challenge in that the assessment of subsurface conditions typically requires substantial data that may or may not be obtainable. Investigations are usually performed well in advance of construction, often with limited access to structure sites and typically in remote areas. Probability and risk-based investigation and design strategies offer an opportunity to systematically estimate subsurface profiles and geotechnical design properties with limited data. Risk can be further reduced with dedicated field inspection of foundation construction along with good field and design team communication during construction. This paper presents a case history of probabilistic methods used for the investigation and design of electric transmission line foundations."

Jan 1, 2017

By C. O. Swanson

CALCULATING the average grade of a gold deposit is a problem that presents certain unique difficulties. Particularly troublesome is the fact that the average of the samples taken from a deposit is likely to be higher than the grade of the ore that is eventually mined, even when allowance is made for dilution and other factors resulting from the mining operations. It would seem that this situation is due to the presence in the deposits of structural peculiarities which have not been properly taken into account, since estimating the average grade of the broken ore produced from the deposits does not present the same difficulty. It is therefore evident that structural considerations are of prime importance in estimating the grade of a deposit. This fact is clearly realized and taken into account in cases where the boundaries of the orebodies and the variations within them are easily recognized. But in many gold deposits this condition is not satisfied, a circumstance which can be regarded as the main source of difficulty. Lacking definite information concerning the structure, we are apt to use certain procedures which are either empirical or based on general probabilities.

Jan 1, 1945

In the stability assessment of open pit walls, geotechnical engineers have to deal with uncertainty related to structural geology, rock mechanical parameters, groundwater and so on. This uncertainty will immediately and significantly impact on wall stability assessment and therefore. influence mineral recovery and ultimately the financial return of open pit mining. However, the conventional factor of safety applied to measure the stability of slopes and the relevant analytical computer packages cannot quantitatively consider the variability or uncertainty of the input data. As a supplement, therefore, geotechnical engineers have begun to apply probability to the stability assessment of open pit walls over the last two decades. To-date unfortunately, no powerful computer package is available to geotechnical engineers to conduct the probability analysis of slope stability. This paper presents a computer package of probability analysis for rock and soil slope stability. In this computer package, the strength parameters of rock and/or soil material such as cohesion, friction angle and unit weight of the different rock and/or soil type domain in a complex structural geology environment can be considered as the basic input random variables. Groundwater level can also be taken into account as a random variable in this package. Two `rigorous' limit equilibrium solutions, the Morgenstern/Price method and the Sarma method, can be used to calculate the factor of safety during Monte Carlo Simulation applied in this program. Five types of probability distribution are included in this package for the user to simulate basic input random variables. Two realistic cases from BHP Iron Ore are used to illustrate this package.

Jan 1, 1997

By W. E. Roscoe

The probability of making an exploration discovery in Canada can be calculated from Derry's (1970) data on exploration expenditures and number of discoveries over the last nineteen years. Considering an average exploration "try" to be $30,000, the probability of a discovery with one try has decreased tenfold from about 0.01 in 1951 to 0.001 in 1969. A plot of these probabilities can be extrapolated to the future, giving a 1969-71 three-year average probability of 0.00096 with 90 per cent confidence limits of 0.00042 and 0.00153. Using this probability, various calculations can be made, such as (1) the probability of making at least one discovery for any given exploration expenditure, (2) the probability of ultimate ruin or survival of the exploration investment process and (3) the expected value of an exploration investment. There is a critical minimum amount per discovery that must be re-invested in exploration, no matter how large the original investment is, for exploration to survive at all in the long run. Currently, this critical minimum is $31,200,000 with 90 per cent confidence limits of $19,600,000 and $71,400,000.

Jan 1, 1971

By A. F. Silva, R. Dockendorff, J. M. Girao Sotomayor, V. F. Navarro Torres, C. Castro

This paper shows the importance of performing probabilistic analyses in open pits, especially for mine planning, which can lead to more efficient ore extraction and meeting the acceptability criteria for safety in mine slopes. Three-dimensional stability analyses were performed to evaluate the future geometry of a large open pit for iron ore extraction in Brazil. The strength parameters of the lithologies were calibrated using ruptures in the pit walls. After determining the factors of safety (FoSs) from the calibrated parameters, probabilistic analyses were performed using the total range of values of each parameter under different field conditions to verify the reliability of the initial analysis. In this sense, it was possible to plot the probability of failure (PoF) and the FoS on the graph of slope height versus slope interramp angle (IRA) for the future pit in each lithology. IRA recommendations are made for two scenarios: (1) the best scenario: dry without ubiquitous joints and (2) the worst scenario: the water table at 10 m depth with ubiquitous joints in the most unfavourable direction. The results show that probabilistic evaluation is an important tool for establishing alert mechanisms in slopes that can be termed stable.

Jul 2, 2022

By John G. Kovac

A computer simulation has been developed to estimate the chances of a miner making a successful escape while wearing a SCSR. The model takes into account: (1) training in the use of SCSRs, (2) apparatus integrity, and (3) the oxygen cost of a mine escape. This Bureau of Mines report examines survival odds for a prototypical escape, and illustrates how these odds change when SCSR training is improved.

Jan 1, 2009

By Calvin L. Stevenson

The probability of a particle passing through a maze is predictable and consistent. This principle may be utilized to effect a particle size separation of materials by presenting a physical maze to a stream of material that will allow the fine particles to pass, while deflecting the coarse particles. A maze is effective even though all apertures encountered are many times larger than the particles being separated. By designing a machine that allows the probability parameters to be controlled and varied without changing physical dimensions, probability sizing becomes a useful tool for the separation of granular materials.

Jan 1, 1967

INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY THEORY The mathematical theory of probability provides the foundation for the interpretations and inferences that can be made from statistical techniques. Probability theory is a broad field of study in itself, and can only be touched on here in order to provide the necessary back- ground for a more complete understanding of statistical analysis. Probability is concerned with the outcome of random events. It had its beginnings in the theory of games of chance which were of great interest to European mathematicians during the last half of the 17th century. The outcome of a random process or experiment is defined as an event. The collection of all mathematical points associated with each event is called the sample space for an experiment. Consider a random experiment having a finite number, n, of possible outcomes, some of which have a characteristic A. What is the probability that A will result from a single

Jan 1, 1980

By G. Pan

The production data of many mines have not reconciled geostatistical estimations based on exploration and development drilling. The discrepancies in recovered metals are sometimes as large as 30%. A number of factors are responsible for such unpleasant outcomes. A major cause, however, is the lack of geological controls in the implementation of geostatistical techniques. Geological modeling establishes geological constraints and mineralization/ore envelopes. Geological constraints are usually established through drill hole interpretation. Mineralization and ore envelopes have been delineated manually based on assay grades. The issues associated with manual methods are: •Time requirements . •Inconsistent dilution. •Uncontrollable implementation variance. Although the time issue may not be a big concern for some companies, the other two have been responsible for many undesired estimation errors. A new geostatistical approach described in this study is designed on the basis of indicator and ordinary kriging. The central component of the method is the procedure for automatic delineation of mineralization and ore envelopes. The method, referred to as probability assigned constrained kriging (PACK), is demonstrated on a Carlin-type gold deposit. The estimation results are compared to blast-hole based production panels, showing that the estimated tonnage is about 2.1 % higher than the actual production, and the average grade is about 2.4% lower.

Jan 1, 1995

By B Mohanty, G Yamin

A number of parameters, aside from blast design and pre-existing rock conditions, can change the performance of the explosives system in actual blasting practice. Sympathetic pressures caused by detonation of preceding holes have been identified as a major contributor to explosive system malfunctions, leading to uneven blasting performance. These effects can occur both within a hole or across several holes. These can consist of high transient pressures related to the shock phase of the explosion or the relatively longer or quasi-static pressures associated with the explosion gas expansion phase. This study presents the findings from an on- going investigation on measurement and analysis of these pressures between donor and receptor holes in a granitic outcrop for representative inter-hole distances and borehole conditions, employing single cartridges of emulsion explosive in 45 mm diameter holes. The results, despite wide scatter in the measured values, show the very short duration pressures to range up to 7 MPa and arriving within a few milliseconds after detonation, whereas the much lower amplitude pressures arrive after tens of milliseconds. Both have the potential to seriously affect the performance of an explosives system.

Jan 1, 2005

By John Reilly

Costs of complex/underground projects have been consistently underestimated and delivery on time and on budget has been problematic. This has been attributed, to inadequate cost estimates and unidentified and/or insufficiently managed risk. Use of probabilistic cost estimates like the Washington State Department of Transportation?s CEVP® process (developed by the author and others) has produced more realistic cost estimates, explicitly identified and quantified risk (as input to risk management plans) and early awareness of key project issues. This paper updates previous work (NAT 2004), adds implementation detail for probalistic cost estimating as used by WSDOT, FHWA and other agencies and will address key issues in risk management, as related to probalistic cost estimates.

Jan 1, 2008

By John E. Kinnison

The Mission mine, located in southern Arizona near Tucson, is a recently developed open pit which produces 15,000 tons per day of copper ore. The mine lies on a wide and gently sloping bajada sweeping northeasterly from the Sierrita mountains. It derives its name from the nearby Mission San Xavier del Bac, built circa 1700. The ore body is everywhere covered by about 200 feet of alluvium, as are the adjacent Pima and Palo Verde mines. The geology of the Mission deposit is known principally through the study of diamond drill holes spaced 150 to 300 feet apart. The open pit is in an infant stage and has not yet revealed much of the deposit, although information obtained there by the operating staff, and from a few thousand feet of exploratory underground workings, has added significantly to the general fund of knowledge. Permission to publish was granted by the American Smelting and Refining Company. I am indebted to Kenyon Richard and J. H. Courtright for criticism of this paper and for their direction during the several years in which I studied the Mission deposit. Acknowledgment is given to consultant in petrography, Robert L. DuBois of the University of Arizona. The only previous publication pertaining directly to the geology of file Mission deposit appeared in 1959 (Richard and Courtright), and may not be everywhere readily available. Cooper (1960) has published a short paper on the district

Jan 1, 1963

By Dorricott M. G, McAllister J

This paper is concerned with the application of a probabilistic approach to the risk assessment of mining projects.In current practice, sensitivity analysis is the most commonly used deterministic approach of accounting for the uncertainties involved in mining project evaluation, while Monte Carlo simulation is considered to be the best probabilistic method available for the same purpose. The methodology of the approach proposed in this paper is as simple as that of sensitivity analysis. However, the results obtained can be more comprehensive than those obtained from Monte Carlo simulation. Various important statistical features, such as correlation and skewness, of the basic random parameters can be easily taken into account by the proposed approach. Example studies are demonstrated. Lotus 123 was employed for the associated probabilistic calculations.

Jan 1, 1992

By L. Gutierrez, M. Pawlik

The rheology artificial mixtures of bitumen with fine quartz of varying bitumen content, as well as actual oil sand ores, was investigated under different physicochemical conditions (pH, temperature). All rheological measurements were conducted using a Haake Rotovisco VT550 rotational viscometer, connected to a fixture specifically designed to measure properties of settling suspensions. It was found that at low bitumen contents (1 %, wt.) the pH of the slurries was the most important parameter that controlled the rheology of quartz-bitumen slurries. At higher bitumen contents (10%, wt.), it was a combination of high temperature and high pH that gave the lowest apparent viscosities and yield stresses of the model mixtures. These model observations correlated well with the rheology data obtained for slurries of actual oil sand ores. The overall results were discussed in terms of aggregation-dispersion phenomena between bitumen and mineral particles.

Jan 1, 2009

By Jerry Wallace

Two recent-release boulders posed serious threats to public transportation and utilities in Washington State. Both required challenging drilling and blasting solutions.

Jan 1, 1997

By B. Roy

The Somita plant processes low sulphide gold ore in Burkina Faso with a CIL process. After experiencing recurrent low gold recoveries, Somita undertook an investigation on the source of the problem. COREM conducted a mineralogical study on different pit samples. A series of tests was also conducted on a composite sample from the plant which shows a content of 3.4 g/t in gold and 0.48 % in graphite. A reference test in laboratory resulted in a recovery of gold of 75%, similar to plant recoveries for the evaluated ore. In these tests, even if cyanide is not deficient, it was diverted mainly into iron cyanide complex, copper cyanide complexes and by graphite adsorption. Causes of low recovery were also identified and quantified. Solutions to increase gold recovery were suggested such as increasing gold dissolution kinetics by O2 or by lead nitrate addition, change in activated carbon addition point location to the 1st cyanidation tank and finer grinding to increase liberation. Increase in the pH could also contribute to reduce cyanidation consumption. Following these recommendations, Somita changed carbon addition from tank 2 to tank 1 in the CIL circuit. This change led to an increase of more than 5% in gold recovery. A system for the addition of lead nitrate is also under implementation at the plant and benefit will be evaluated in 2013. Finally, pit management for cyanidation will be done based on mineralogy instead of gold content in the future.

Jan 1, 2014

By Zdzislaw Specht

THIS paper discusses elementary laws pertaining to seismic reflection methods and presents a general and simple criterion for determining the direction of dipping of a reflection horizon from observational data of distance and time. The important development of practical geophysics and the successful results obtained in America, Germany, and other countries, caused introduction of geophysical methods of prospecting in Poland. Of all methods, seismic prospecting has proved most successful in the area of the Carpathian foreland, where new oil reserves are to be expected. Because of the great depth of the sedimentary column in that area, rang-ing sometimes over 2000 meters, it was obvious that only the seismic reflection method could give reliable information regarding the structural features of these strata at such a depth. During the experimental surveys it appeared that the complicated geological conditions of that area do not always allow prediction of the depth and the angle of dipping of reflecting horizons, and for that reason information about the inclination of a given horizon has great importance in the determination of subsurface structure. Therefore the problem arises of obtaining from seismic reflection data reliable information as to the direction of dipping of reflecting strata, without any previous knowledge of the average velocity and depth of geologic horizons under consideration.

Jan 1, 1940

By B. Samanta

A quality characteristic analysed through construction of the Shewhart control chart is required to be normally distributed. In mining applications, this assumption is often violated as many quality characteristics follow skewed or lognormal distribution. In this paper, two methods were investigated using a heuristic approach for setting up the control limits for a skewed population. Based on these approaches a Mode chart, and a Weighted Variance (WV) control charts were constructed. The performance of the proposed methods was compared with the normal based Shewhart method through a case study conducted in a surface mine supplying iron ore to a steel plant. A simulation study was also conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methods over the Shewhart method. The study revealed that the Shewhart control charts generated more out of control alarms compared with the Mode and Weighted Variance control charts for a skewed population of Fe%. The simulation results also revealed that for extremely high skewed population, the WV control chart and Mode control chart provided higher probability of coverage than the Shewhart method; although the detection rate (probability of detection) of out of control condition for these methods was slightly reduced compared with Shewhart method.

Jan 1, 2004