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By P. E. Cavanagh

THIS REPORT is not intended to be a ?comprehensive survey of the steel industry in Europe. For the past ten years the Ontario Research Foundation has been interested in several developments in the steel industry in Europe which it was felt would be of particular interest in Canada and might possibly find application in this country. This is an account of the present status of some of these developments. The economies of steel making in Canada are somewhat different than in the United States because of the nature of the market and the relative costs and availability of such raw materials as metallurgical coke and electric power. There are cases in Europe where a great deal of effort and money has been spent in trying to make steel profitably by methods which take advantage of locally available and cheap raw materials by modifying standard practices. ln cases wl1ere the investigations have been successful and the data are available to allow translation of the results into Canadian conditions, it is felt that such information may be of great benefit in the future in Canada and at !east should be known to all those in the steel industry in this country. The field to be covered in this report only comprises the steps from concentration and treatment of iron ores to production of iron and is only concerned with those commercially operating processes well known to us and judged to be of present interest in Canada.

Jan 1, 1957

By M. A. Nagle

Various strategic projects were carried out in 2002 to increase the capacity of Teck Cominco's integrated zinc-lead smelter at the Trail operations site in British Columbia, Canada. The lead smelter treats the iron residue from the zinc plant and optimizes the overall zinc recovery. This paper summarizes two options that were considered to reduce the zinc content in the leaching iron residue. The first option involved increasing the capacity of an existing hot acid leach circuit up to the iron loading constraints of the circuit. The second sought to maximize the hot acid leach capability by separating the ferrite-rich solids, followed by aggressive hot acid leaching (>100°C) and subsequent iron precipitation. Different forms of iron precipitation were reviewed in order to determine the most effective and economical approach. Among these, was a novel high temperature ferrite conversion process. The technical results and selection criteria are presented together with possible ways to integrate the process concepts into the current sulphide leaching plant circuit. The first option was selected for implementation and is currently being operated successfully.

Jan 1, 2006

By I. Masters, K. Buban, M. Faris, M. Antonio, M. Collins

"AngloGold Ashanti Brasil, with assistance from Sherritt International Corporation, has recently commissioned a new autoclave for the pressure oxidation of refractory gold feeds at their Corrego do Sítio operation in Brazil. Design of the new plant, including feed acidulation, pressure oxidation, oxidized solids washing and solution neutralization circuits, was based on the results of test work conducted by Sherritt at their pilot plant in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta. This paper describes the results of the pilot plant study as well as highlights of the design exercise.INTRODUCTIONAngloGold Ashanti Brasil (AGA Brasil) has recently commissioned a refractory gold pressure oxidation plant at the site of the original São Bento operation in Brazil. The design of the São Bento pressure oxidation facility was based on Sherritt technology; Sherritt carried out the original process development test work in the mid-1980s, provided a process design package and detailed specifications for critical pressure oxidation equipment and participated in the training of operators and commissioning of the plant. The São Bento plant was operated between 1986 and 2007, when the original ore body was exhausted (Silva et al., 2004). AGA Brasil purchased the facility from Eldorado Gold in 2008, with the intent of refurbishing the plant to process refractory gold concentrates produced from the nearby Córrego do Sítio mining area.Sherritt International Corporation has a long history in the development and application of commercial pressure oxidation and pressure leaching processes. Sherritt’s development of technology for the pressure oxidation of refractory gold ores and concentrates commenced in the 1980s in collaboration with Homestake for application at the McLaughlin project in California. This was followed by several commercial applications in Canada, Papua New Guinea and Brazil (Berezowsky et al., 1991). More than thirty pilot plant campaigns investigating the pressure oxidation of refractory gold ores or concentrates have been conducted by Sherritt since the 1980s, and projects with Sherritt contributions to the process development studies and/or engineering design account for about half of the commercial plants that have operated to date with this type of process (Collins et al., 2011a; 2011b)."

Jan 1, 2012

By Ning Zhang, Yan Chen, Qikang Yi, Linjian Ma, Guoan Wang

Laboratory tests were performed to explore the effects of frequency on the deformation property of rock salt subjected to cyclic loading under confining stress condition. A two-stage (transient and steady) evolution law of axial cumulative strain was obtained through cyclic stress-strain curves complied from the loci of minimum load of each cycle. The unloading modulus decreases with loading cycles/time as a negative exponential function. The damage of rock salt under cyclic loading is reflected by the degradation of elastic modulus. A unified damage evolution equation considering the effects of frequency and time was established based on the experimental results. A new creep damage model for rock salt was proposed by introducing the non-stationary modular components in Burgers creep equation according to the Lemaitre equivalent strain theory. Comparative study indicates that the new model can accurately describe the creep deformation and damage evolution of rock salt under different loading frequencies. This paper provides a more reasonable model and relevant mechanical parameters for the stability analysis of compressed-air storage cavern in the injection and withdrawal durations.

Jan 1, 2015

By McNeely DuBose

INTRODUCTORY PROSPECTING for aluminum has always been, and still is, a peculiar combination of the technical with the physical approach, and 1 want to explain my conception of the term 'prospecting' when applied to aluminum, which differs in some respects from the ordinarily accepted idea of prospecting. In the early days of gold mining, prospecting was a search in the hills and the river beds for the metal, not for its chemical combinations. And so it was in the early days of aluminum, with the difference that the search for the metal was carried on, not in the hills and dales, but in chemical laboratories. Aluminum is never found in the elemental state and at that time the metal bad never been seen, but scientists of that day bad forecast that such a metal must exist and in 1807 Sir Humphrey Davy went so far as to give this unseen metal a name, aluminum, from the Greek word alumen. This word applies to our alum, and it was from alum that Davy sought to produce the metal. It is strange to think that, in laboratories throughout England and on the continent, prospecting for aluminum was busily under way by men who had never seen the metal they were searching for. Their situation was something like that of the fisherman and the 'big one' that got away. They could describe the metal, give its exact weight, and even name it, but they could not produce visual evidence of its existence. Eventually, however, the efforts of the scientist 'prospectors' were rewarded and in 1826 the metal was actually produced, possibly first by Wohler, though Oerstedt, a Danish chemist, is usually credited with the achievement.

Jan 1, 1951

By Ian E. Efford

The paper gives an assessment of Canada's energy supply-and-demand position, the current situation and projections into the future, as well as a review of some alternative energy futures for Canada. The main elements of Canada's energy strategy for the period 1977-1990, with particular reference to the role of energy conservation, are discussed, leading in to the development of the national energy conservation program.

Jan 1, 1977

By Hans Lundberg

The magnetometer which was developed during the war for detecting submarines has proven exceedingly valuable in outlining deep-seated structures in oil exploration, and will be useful also to geologists in outlining regional structural features in the Precambrian. Our magnetometer has been developed to outline local and detail structures. 1 am quite sure that all geophysicists and geologists would agree with me that, in ore prospecting, it is important to obtain as much detailed information as possible. We know that, as we ascend from the ground and get away from the magnetic ore-bearing structures and orebodies, the magnetic intensity decreases rapidly, but, worse than that, we lose the details even faster. Figure l shows two strong, very sharp, magnetic 'highs' over two orebodies which, as our distance increases, rapidly merge into one fairly broad, moderately strong anomaly. If we drilled on this maximum, we would not encounter any of the orebodies. Therefore, we should fly the airborne magnetometer as close to the ground as possible in order to duplicate the results of the magnetic ground surveys. The first chance to accomplish this came with the helicopter, which is an exceedingly maneuverable aircraft. It can be landed in a cleared space not much more than fifty feet square. With floats, it can be landed anywhere, even in a swamp, on thin ice, or on soft snow. It can stand still in the air, hovering over a given point. It can ascend and descend vertically, fly sideways and even backwards, at the will of the pilot. It flies forward at any speed up to l00 miles an hour. The helicopter can be taken to any desired position at a given time. It can fly at any useful altitude from a few feet to several thousand feet above the ground. It can fly very close to the ground with safety. In bare areas, the survey flight may be performed a few feet above the ground. In forested areas, however, the flights, to clear the trees, must be made at l00 to 150 feet. To mark out a certain point, a small parachute-like marker may be draped over a tree or laid on the ground. This can be done from the helicopter without touching the ground.

Jan 1, 1947

By E. Hinton, L. Bloomquist

"This paper describes a guidance system for autonomous underground mining vehicles, which does not require any infrastructure or inertial positioning systems to aid the guidance process.BackgroundINCO Limited mines approximately ten million tons per annum through 12 operating mines in the Sudbury, Ontario, area (Fig. 1). With challenges from operating in a cyclical marketplace as well as new technologies making alternative nickel ores more competitive to refine, the Mines Research department embarked on a strategy that pointed toward automation as a tool to help the company become even more economical in mining.The mining industry has been looking for ways and means to mine orebodies more and more inexpensively. Automation and the lessons learned from manufacturing had a great influence in the direction of research at INCO Limited over the past ten years. Guidance systems have evolved over the years but the majority of commercially available systems rely on some form of infrastructure. This, in part, has caused some resistance from operators to install and maintain automated or semi-automated systems for guidance of underground machinery.Internal industrial studies cited travel time to and from the workplace as one of the major time sinks in the shift of underground miners. Depending on the mine, it may be as much as two hours moving in and out of an area. Some work areas have accommodated this by having “hot changes” at the work place. However, at some point in time, there are two people tasked with the same job and on site at the same time to make this overlap occur.Tele-operation of underground hard rock equipment eliminated this overlap and also provided a comfortable environment in which to work. By taking advantage of the communications network installed, the miners proved that they could operate three machines with relative ease. This was accomplished by a vision-based, “painted line,” autonomous guidance system termed the light rope system.With a few years’ experience with the system, some issues have arisen, including the cost of the rope itself (Fig. 2).The vehicle’s route is limited to the paths defined by the light rope, and a system of switching power to the light rope to select different routes is required. The rope itself is subject to damage from nearby blasts. Also, the system offers no obstacle detection; the vehicle may be switched off as a means of shutting the machine down thus protecting personnel in the area."

Jan 1, 2001

By R. Plassart, F. Laigle

"As a powerhouse, a transformer or a valve chamber, large underground caverns are a major element of hydropower plant. On the contrary to galleries and shafts which are linear and long underground structures, large caverns are designed with often complex geometries and large spans. Moreover, as these caverns are generally located on the foot of the hydraulic scheme, the high overburden is often responsible of a high stress state. Thanks to current experiences in France and around the world, the Hydro Engineering Centre (CIH) of EDF has defined great principles in the design of caverns leading to a more general methodology. The project of Tehri in India is an example of difficult ground, with in the same time a high overburden, a ductile material and an important schistosity. These physical realities are attempted to be approached in numerical modelling thanks to a constitutive law with softening behaviour and an oriented criterion integrated in the continuum model. As a result, a flexible support is advised, based on a high density bolt system and a thin lay of shotcrete. This methodology has been developed in the case of Gilboa in Israel, except the schistosity which has not been observed in situ. At last, the example of Gavet (France) illustrates a discontinuous case of numerical modelling for a good quality but fractured rock mass.PRINCIPES ET METHODES DE CONCEPTION DE GRANDES CAVERNESHYDROELECTRIQUES SOUTERRAINESRESUME Les grandes cavernes souterraines abritant les turbines, les transformateurs et certaines vannes sont des ouvrages majeurs dans les aménagements hydroélectriques. A la différence des galeries et des puits qui présentent de longs linéaires, les grandes cavernes sont des structures à la géométrie souvent complexe et avec des portées conséquentes. De plus, ces cavernes étant généralement situées en pied du circuit hydraulique, la grande couverture rocheuse peut se traduire par un état de contraintes important. Forte de ses expériences récentes en France et dans le monde, le Centre d’Ingénierie Hydraulique d’EDF a identifié de grands principes de conception des cavernes permettant l’élaboration d’une méthodologie plus générale. Le projet de Tehri en Inde est un exemple de terrain difficile, présentant à la fois une forte couverture, un matériau ductile et une schistosité marquée. Ces réalités physiques sont approchées au mieux grâce à la prise en compte dans les modélisations numériques d’une loi de comportement radoucissante avec un critère orienté intégré dans un modèle continu. Les résultats ont conduit à privilégier un soutènement souple basé sur un boulonnage systématique relativement dense associé à une fine couche de béton projeté. Cette méthodologie a ensuite été reprise pour le projet de Gilboa en Israël, exception faite de la schistosité puisque non observée sur site. L’exemple de Gavet (France) enfin permet d’illustrer un cas de modélisation numérique discontinue d’un massif rocheux de bonne qualité mais fracturé."

Jan 1, 2015

By Josée Dartois

En 1988, à l?instar de plusieurs états du monde industrialisé, le Québec décidait d?accélérer la cadence de l?assainissement des rejets industriels et lançait un programme intégré de réduction de la pollution industrielle visant, à la fois, les rejets dans le milieu aquatique, les émissions atmosphériques et les matières résiduelles. Ce programme fut intitulé le Programme de réduction des rejets industriels.

Nov 1, 2002

By B. Surender Mohan

Mother Earth being a treasure of minerals, it is prime duty of the mankind to preserve this natural source to ensure steady growth of the nation. Utmost care is to be taken to see that these natural resources are explored and exploited scientifically in a sustained manner to ensure that the resource base improves and last longer. In this backdrop, the topic of ?Lignite - its resource and technology options to exploit deep seated deposits? is an apt subject to be deliberated upon in the present context, where the shallow deposits may slowly get dwindled. I shall deliberate upon the resource base of lignite, production profiles of the last five decades, consumption pattern, demand / supply projections, future available technology options to exploit the deep seated deposits, growth trends of the sector etc. in my paper. With the available resource base and future technology options, I can confidentially make a statement that ?lignite will remain as cocontributor along with coal to India?s energy generation and may well maintain its same status in the 21st century too, as it has been in the later part of the twentieth century?.

Aug 1, 2013

By M. Sengupta, A. A. de Gast

"With rapid deterioration in the urban environment caused by air pollution, the possibility of chemical reaction between dimension stone and the industrial waste gases present in the ambient atmosphere remains. The chemical reaction can cause expensive damage to building stone; it is essential that a stone evaluation for use in construction should assess the possibility of this type of decay. This paper endeavours to develop testing procedures for evaluating stone decay in polluted environments. Such tests can accompany other standard tests used in dimension- stone evaluation."

Jan 1, 1972

By I. Donohue, M. Pearson, E. Barrette

"This paper presents the technique and benefits of the finite element approach for designing the refractory lining in pressure oxidation autoclaves. One-dimensional equations are used to develop an initial refractory design. ANSYS Parametric Design Language (APDL) scripts are then used to build and analyse a more accurate three-dimensional finite element model to verify the refractory thickness, determine weld overlay requirements, and assess mechanical stability. The APDL scripts provide a cost effective means to quickly evaluate various boundary conditions and multiple designs to determine the optimal lining configuration and nozzle layout.INTRODUCTIONNew ore processing facilities demand increased capacity, requiring hydrometallurgy processes that have larger reactor vessels operating at higher pressure and temperature. Many pressure hydrometallurgy operations require vessels with an impermeable membrane and one or more courses of refractory or ceramic brick. The membrane provides corrosion protection for the vessel shell and the brick provides thermal protection for the membrane. Designing a refractory lining with an economic service life as a thermal barrier requires the refractory to be erosion resistant, chemically compatible with the process fluid, and mechanically stable. A fundamental understanding of the factors affecting the lining system is essential as designs move further away from the industry’s experience base.During basic engineering the refractory lining design is developed using one dimensional cylindrical conduction equations for heat transfer and classical hoop stress-strain relationships for determining mechanical stability. The results of the thermal calculations specify the refractory thickness that should prevent the membrane temperature from exceeding the design limit. Mechanical stability of the lining is determined by examining the sensitivity of lining stability with respect to various parameters. There are three criteria that must be satisfied to conclude mechanical lining stability:"

Jan 1, 2012

By D. Gaboury

Most hydrothermal gold deposits contain quartz with fluid inclusions that record composition and temperature of the mineralizing event. Quartz has strong chemical and mechanical resistances to weathering and abrasion. Hence, quartz fragments occurring on weathered surfaces or in till cover have the potential to be used for gold exploration as far as we know what is the signification of the volatile content of the fluid inclusions for gold mineralization. In this perspective, fluid inclusions were analyzed in pure quartz by solid-probe mass spectrometry from gold deposits hosted in the Archean Abitibi (Canada) and Paleoproterozoic Birimian (Western Africa) belts. This approach provides the relative abundance of volatiles from families of fluid inclusions decrepitating at specific temperatures (Td). Fluids in gold deposits are aqueous-dominated with CO2 and minor H2S in accordance with their fundamental role as gold-ligands (H2S) and for pH-buffering (CO2) of the gold-bisulfide solubility. However, there is no correlation between CO2 and H2S contents of fluid inclusions with the gold grade of the samples. This suggests that trapped fluids represent a marginal portion of the fluid history recorded by the veins. However, in barren quartz veins away from known mineralization CO2 or H2S are commonly absent. Wide ranges in H2O Td from 250 to 450°C and CO2-H2O Td offsets are common, indicating phase separation. The content of other volatiles seems to be more dependent on the geological setting. Helium content may suggest proximity to a crustal-rooted fault, a critical parameter for gold mineralization. Methane and especially C2H6 appear to be indicative of fluid buffering by organic-rich material such as graphitic-shale. These rocks may provide an important primary gold reservoir from sedimentary metal-rich pyrite. Nitrogen-bearing fluids may be related to a magmatic component but can also be derived from organic-rich sedimentary rocks. For gold exploration, quartz containing CO2- H2S-bearing fluid inclusions and having H2O-CO2-Td offsets within 250 - 450°C has strong vectoring potential.

Jan 1, 2011

By J. D. Little

"THE SALMO PROPERTIES of Canadian Exploration, Limited comprise forty-one Crown-granted mineral claims situated on Iron mountain between Sheep creek (on the north) and Lost creek, some eight miles southward from Salmo, in the Nelson mining division (see Figure 1). On these claims there are at present four operating mines. These are, from north to south, the Dodger, Feeney, and Emerald, all tungsten mines, and the Jersey, a lead-zinc mine, about 7,000 feet south of the Dodger. About midway between the Dodger and the Jersey is a fifth mine, the Emerald lead-zinc mine, which was the first producer in the area but has been inactive since 1926. The locations of the mines are shown in Figure 2.Records of prospecting and claim staking on Iron mountain -which owes its name to the presence of large iron-stained outcrops -go back to 1895. The first recorded owner of the claims that form the old Emerald lead-zinc mine was John Waldbeser who, in 1908, did considerable work and produced 426 tons of lead ore valued, at the then price of lead, at $7,000. This ore was chiefly lead carbonate and was taken from the surface outcrops of two bands of ore that form the Emerald orebodies. In 1909, the Emerald was the largest lead producer in the Nelson mining district."

Jan 1, 1953

By G. G. Bowser

Introduction Flame shots are of very infrequent occurrence in the coal mines of Nova Scotia. Probably not more than one is recorded in three months. Many shot-firers have never experienced one, and many never will. As a consequence, although all such occurrences are very carefully investigated, information concerning the cause of flame shots is somewhat meagre. In the course of the years, however, something has been learned of the practices and conditions that are responsible for them. During the past ten? years, over seventeen million shots were fired in the coal mines of Nova Scotia and only fifty-two faulty shots were reported or investigated during that time. In thirty-nine of these, flames were reported; in five, sparks only; and in eight, smoke only. In eight of these occurrences, unburned explosive was found after firing. In one of these eight, flame was seen in the back part of the hole, and an accompanying hissing sound pointed to burning explosive. In four of them, there was no evidence that gas was not ignited. All samples of explosives from these faulty shots which were submitted for analysis were found to be normal, except two, in 1937, which contained excessive moisture. These two samples were from two following shots in the same room on the same day. The initial cause of trouble with all eight shots was one or several of the following: explosives in poor condition, separation of cartridges, incorrect priming, shot hole in poor condition or not properly cleaned. In the case of sixteen or seventeen of the thirty-nine shots which flamed, data are insufficient for conclusions to be drawn as to the cause of the flame.

Jan 1, 1947

By M. Tsesarsky, M. Hazan, E. Gal

"Rock masses comprised of stiff inclusions in softer matrix are common in various geological environments. The heterogeneity and multi-scale nature of these materials make the evaluation of their mechanical properties a challenging task, which cannot be accomplished using conventional laboratory tests and composite mixture rules. We employ the homogenization method to estimate the mechanical properties of geological materials with inclusions. The homogenization method solves the equations of elasticity on the material (microscopic) scale for a unit cell subjected to unit strains under periodic boundary condition. The micro-scale elasticity equations are solved using the Finite Elements Method, and are in turn used to obtain the structure scale (macroscopic) material matrix.In this research, Finite Element models for unit cells with spherical and ellipsoidal inclusions were developed. Using the unit cells, a parametric study of the geometrical and statistical microscopic properties of the material composites was performed. The following parameters were studied: volumetric ratio, Young’s modulus ratio, size-distribution of inclusion and inclination angle of inclusions. The main purpose of the parametric study was to study the deviation from isotropy as a function of the aforementioned parameters.It was found that for volumetric ratio of 5%-40%, the deviation from isotropy increases, as the volumetric ratio of inclusions increases. For spherical inclusions, most of the cases studied exhibit quasiisotropic behaviour; whereas ellipsoidal inclusions exhibit considerable deviation from isotropy. The inclination of the ellipsoidal inclusions enlarges the deviation from isotropy (9% at random orientation and 26% at 0°)."

Jan 1, 2015

By G. Deschênes

Located in North West Tanzania, Buzwagi is an underground narrow-vein gold mine owned by Barrick Gold. The plant was commissioned in 2000. The reserves are estimated to be more than 25 years. The ore, containing gold, silver and copper mineralization in sulphides, is processed at 3,300 tpd. This paper presents the results of an investigation to determine the performance of an ammonia-cyanide leaching approach to recover gold from two samples. Coarse gold was recovered by gravity prior to leaching. The gravity tailings had the following composition; 1.97 g/t Au and 0.31% copper for the medium cyanide soluble copper (MCSC) sample and 2.80 g/t Au and 0.53% Cu for the high cyanide soluble copper (HCSC) sample. Experiments were conducted for 72 hours in stirred tank reactors with monitoring and control of parameters. The straight cyanidation produced gold extractions of 76.1% for the MCSC sample and 84.6% for the HCSC sample. Associated cyanide additions were 6.1 kg/t and 11.5 kg/t respectively. The gold extraction of the MCSC sample was improved to 88.8% using 350 ppm NaCN and 700 ppm ammonia. The associated cyanide and ammonia additions were 2.5 kg/t and 1.7 kg/t respectively. For the HCSC sample, 82.5% gold extraction was obtained using 500 ppm NaCN and 600 ppm ammonia. The cyanide addition and ammonia additions were reduced to 3.8 kg/t and 1.0 kg/t respectively. No significant decrease in gold extraction was noticed when the cyanide and ammonia were reduced to 150 ppm and 500 ppm respectively. In the presence of ammonia, a significant amount of cyanide was oxidized to cyanate by the cupric ion. In the absence of ammonia, the formation of copper cyanide was the predominant reaction responsible for consumption of cyanide.

Jan 1, 2012

By V. Baboudjian, R. J. Geren, J. Thiriar

"The electrolytic tankhouse at CCR was recognized by management as lagging behind modem refineries in terms of productivity, energy efficiency and controls. The operation was also burdened by high maintenance costs of cells, floors and electrolyte recirculation systems.A bench marking program was started in 1986 to evaluate processes and other technology by visiting major copper refineries in North America, Europe and Japan. The basic principles necessary to optimize the operation were defined, and a program calledCCR 2000 was prepared for approval of the necessary capital investments.This paper describes the results obtained to date and outlines the remaining work to complete the modernization program, in particular, the control of electrolytes, the elimination of the Baltimore groove and studies to modernize the stripping operation or adopt permanent cathode technology.IntroductionThe CCR Refinery of Noranda Copper Smelting and Refining (Noranda Minerals Inc.) , in Montreal East, is one of the world 's largest custom copper and precious metal refineries with a capacity to refine 350000 tonnes of copper per year. The silver refinery, which treats the copper tankhouse anode slime, foreign slime and precious metal ingots, produces 800 000 kg of silver, 26 000 kg of gold and 3800 kg of platinum-palladium concentrate annually. Copper anodes are received from the Horne Smelter at Rouyn-Noranda, Quebec, and Mines Gaspe Division in Murdochville, Quebec. CCR also refines anodes from Hudson Bay Mining and Smelting Co. Ltd. in FIin Flon, Manitoba, and remelts anode scrap along with blister and purchased copper scrap ."

Jan 1, 1993

By E. A. Rychkun

"For the last 700years of recorded economic history, man has been subjected to alternating inflationary and deflationary patterns. Through this period of time, a severe deflationary pattern has developed approximately every 55 years, creating 12recordable occurrences. Through the last two centuries, this severe deflationary phenomenon has come to be known as a depression. As these depressions have repeated themselves regularly, they are cyclic. This in turn leads to the question of whether the 13th cycle will also repeat itself in the form of a depression. As this cycle is now 51 years old, we must consider the possibility at about 1984.In analyzing a 700-year record of consumer prices in Southern England, the 55-year cycle appears to vary in shape and intensity. This varying phenomenon is due to the effect of longer cycles upon which each one ""rides "". Because each cycle effectively rides on the next largest, which in turn rides on the next largest and so on, the combined measured effect of all cycles together at any point in time is always unique. This means that anyone cycle can never repeat itself in an exact identical manner. The combined effect therefore is what we observe in the form of prices and, as cycles interact, variations in deflation are produced . The ""science"" of economics attempts to quantify and develop theory on situations which are never identical and hence can be conservatively classified as a useless predictive tool.This means that more unconventional approaches may be required to predict our economic future. In looking at previous depression cycles, it is possible to recognize similarities in human behaviour patterns and hence the resulting economic movements. These behaviour patterns create major events or influencing factors which set the scene for a major deflationary condition. The way in which these factors occur, however, is not predictable. As more and more of these similar events are identified in each cycle, we can increase our confidence on the probability of the last event occurring (a depression). By also unravelling the set of larger cycles, we can determine the potential combined effect at any point in the future.This paper presents a system of cycles ranging from 800 years to 3 years which appear to operate in our economic system. By so doing, a long-term projection into the next century can be made. Finally, the paper deals with the main controlling similarities within the depression cycle, to show that a comparison with our current cycle implies that a major deflationary collapse in the mid 1980's is virtualy inevitable."

Jan 1, 1980