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THE first mention of the mining and use of coal in the Pittsburgh district refers to the mine under Duquesne Heights that furnished coal for the garrison at the fort at Pittsburgh in 1760. Coal had been dug and used as fuel just outside of Brownsville, Fayette county, in 1759, but this was not a regular mine as the opening was in an outcropping. Maps of Ohio in 1770 showed "Cole Mines" at various points. The Penns purchased all the coal south of Kittanning in southwestern Pennsylvania from the Chiefs of the Six Nations for a reported price of $10,000. During the Revolution, coal from Herron Hill, Minersville, and Coal Hill, all within the present city limits, was used in Pittsburgh. There is today one custom pit opened in Coal Hill (Duquesne Heights). The first steam engine was set up in Pittsburgh in 1794 and used coal as fuel. The first mine in the Youghiogheny gas district was opened in 1796. In 1803, the first shipment of coal by water was made from Pittsburgh down the Ohio river and landed at Philadelphia, where it sold for approximately $9.50 per ton. The mines along the Monongahela were naturally the first to be opened. With the completion of locks and dams in 1844, permitting slack-water navigation, the industry began to thrive. The No. 8 field of Ohio and the Fairmont region of northern West Virginia were opened in the period 1840 to 1855. From that time on there has been a continuous development of the coal resources of this district, until at present-productive capacity is enough to supply 30 per cent. of the country's needs of bituminous coal. The original method of working the Pittsburgh seam was to drive under cover at some .easily accessible point on the outcrop with a single entry, usually 1 1/2 yd. wide. Rooms or gangways were turned to the

Jan 10, 1926

By N. Cabrera

IN a recent paper Kuczynski' studied the rate at which the crack between a metallic plane and a spherical particle of the same material is filled up gradually when heated at temperatures near the melting point. If x is the radius of contact between plane and sphere (fig. I), Kuczynski shows experimentally that x5 = At [1] where t is the time. Assuming that the mechanism of transport of matter is the volume diffusion of vacant lattice sites, he is also able to prove Eq 1 theoretically. The constant A contains as a factor the self-diffusion coefficient of the metal and he shows that the values for this coefficient deduced from his experiments yield the same activation energy as that calculated by other methods, which is a confirmation of this point of view. Kuczynski has also considered theoretically the law of growth of x which would be expected if surface diffusion were the important mechanism. He suggests that x should then obey a law of the form x7 = At, and claims to be able to decide the mechanism involved from the observed law of growth., The purpose of this note is to prove this incorrect. On the contrary, when the mechanism is surface diffusion Eq 1 is also obeyed, but with a different constant A. Following Kuczynski, we suppose the bottom of the crack (surface A A) to have an average radius of curvature p. As a result of this curvature the concentration of adsorbed atoms in this surface, n(p) per cm2, will be smaller, and the concentration of vacant lattice sites in the neighborhood, N(p) per cm3, will be larger than the corresponding concentrations, n(w) and N(w), for a flat surface. For all practical cases we can write Thomson's formula in the form n(co)— n(P) N(P)—N(cc) _ 2a-a" n(oo) JV(co) kTp [2] where u is the surface energy of the metal and a the interatomic distance. 1. Let us now consider the mechanism of surface diffusion. We suppose the concentration of ad-

Jan 1, 1951

The plans involve about ten technical sessions, a day spent in Cripple Creek and in Pueblo, where there will he optional visits devoted to steel, non-ferrous metals, etc.; half-a-day each to mills in Colorado Springs district and an auto trip to the top of Pike's Peak. Finally, a day at Leadville devoted to visits, including the molybdenum works.

Jan 4, 1918

By AIME AIME

FOR the mineral industry, as for many others, the year 1944 brought to fruition the seeds planted in previous war years. Accomplishment in attaining ends in the production of minerals has given more time for the consideration of postwar problems, such as plans for resuming production for civilian uses and measures to prevent possible mass unemployment. The hectic atmosphere in production circles lessened during the latter half of 1943, conditions becoming static during 1944 as peak production rates were reached. Withdrawal of deferment of young men from the mining districts by Selective Service connotes that man power at the battlefronts became more important than the persistence of pressure for metal production. This is in contrast to the return of soldiers in 1943 to augment the labor ranks in the mining districts. The year ended in the midst of changing needs. Over-all metal production in the United States in 1944 will record a lessening, compared with the previous year owing to labor shortages which affected both development work and ore output.

Jan 1, 1945

By R. W. Hyde, S. E. Eaton, B. S. Old

One of the most important problems facing the steel industry at the present time is that of maintaining at a minimum the sulphur content of many grades of steel where sulphur is known to have harmful effects On both quality and yield. The present outlook in this struggle to reduce the amount of sulphur in steel is rather gloomy since the sulphur content of the raw materials available in the United States is gradually rising, with little relief in sight. A flow sheet of sulphur in the steel process is shown in Fig I. The values used here were obtained by averaging coke oven and blast furnace data at No. 5 furnace in Cleveland and are considered typical for high top pressure practice. The sulphur evolved in the blast furnace top gas was obtained by difference and since the amount is relatively small, little significance should be attached to this particular value. From Fig I it is apparent, however, that coals used in the production of metallurgical coke represent by far the largest single source of sulphur in steel-making. As an indication of the decrease in quality of these coals as regards sulphur content the weighed average annual sulphur analysis of the coals supplied to two different steel plants, since 1925, is plotted in Fig 2} The sharp rise since 1940 is strikingly apparent. Another indication of this trend is found in estimates of coking coal reserves. Thus in the case of Pittsburgh seam coals available in Allegheny, Fayette, Greene, Washington, and Westmoreland Counties in Pa. as of Jan. 1937 only 25 pct of the coal reserves would contain less than 1.50 pct sulphur after washing.2.3 Many of these lower sulphur reserves have been seriously depleted in recent years because of accelerated war demands. still another demonstration of the increasing sulphur content of coals on a country-wide basis is found in a report by the Bureau of Mines4 which shows a steady increase in the sulphur content of coke made in the United States. It should be noted that this increase continues in spite of the wider use of coal washing in recent years. Sulphur occurs in coal in three forms, pyritic (FeS2), organic sulphur, and a small amount of sulphate sulphur (CaS04). The sulphur is subsequently found in the coke in combination with carbonaceous material of is composition and as calcium and iron sulphides' In considering the general problem of sulphur elimination, the Republic Steel Corp. was interested in determining which, if either, of the two major forms of sulphur in coal contributes the greater portion of sulphur to the coke. Since the ratio of pyritic to organic sulphur varies widely in different coals, it was thought that if it could be shown definitely that the major part of the sulphur occurring in coke originates from one of the two ""jar forms of sulphur in the coal, it would then be possible to select with confidence coal which, although high .in total sulphur, would yield coke of fairly low sulphur content. Using the new

Jan 1, 1949

By R. W. Hyde, B. S. Old, S. E. Eaton

One of the most important problems facing the steel industry at the present time is that of maintaining at a minimum the sulphur content of many grades of steel where sulphur is known to have harmful effects On both quality and yield. The present outlook in this struggle to reduce the amount of sulphur in steel is rather gloomy since the sulphur content of the raw materials available in the United States is gradually rising, with little relief in sight. A flow sheet of sulphur in the steel process is shown in Fig I. The values used here were obtained by averaging coke oven and blast furnace data at No. 5 furnace in Cleveland and are considered typical for high top pressure practice. The sulphur evolved in the blast furnace top gas was obtained by difference and since the amount is relatively small, little significance should be attached to this particular value. From Fig I it is apparent, however, that coals used in the production of metallurgical coke represent by far the largest single source of sulphur in steel-making. As an indication of the decrease in quality of these coals as regards sulphur content the weighed average annual sulphur analysis of the coals supplied to two different steel plants, since 1925, is plotted in Fig 2} The sharp rise since 1940 is strikingly apparent. Another indication of this trend is found in estimates of coking coal reserves. Thus in the case of Pittsburgh seam coals available in Allegheny, Fayette, Greene, Washington, and Westmoreland Counties in Pa. as of Jan. 1937 only 25 pct of the coal reserves would contain less than 1.50 pct sulphur after washing.2.3 Many of these lower sulphur reserves have been seriously depleted in recent years because of accelerated war demands. still another demonstration of the increasing sulphur content of coals on a country-wide basis is found in a report by the Bureau of Mines4 which shows a steady increase in the sulphur content of coke made in the United States. It should be noted that this increase continues in spite of the wider use of coal washing in recent years. Sulphur occurs in coal in three forms, pyritic (FeS2), organic sulphur, and a small amount of sulphate sulphur (CaS04). The sulphur is subsequently found in the coke in combination with carbonaceous material of is composition and as calcium and iron sulphides' In considering the general problem of sulphur elimination, the Republic Steel Corp. was interested in determining which, if either, of the two major forms of sulphur in coal contributes the greater portion of sulphur to the coke. Since the ratio of pyritic to organic sulphur varies widely in different coals, it was thought that if it could be shown definitely that the major part of the sulphur occurring in coke originates from one of the two ""jar forms of sulphur in the coal, it would then be possible to select with confidence coal which, although high .in total sulphur, would yield coke of fairly low sulphur content. Using the new

Jan 1, 1949

By R. S. Cartwright

TWO types of automatic drilling controls, the Halliburton and the Hild, are now available and are coming into more or less general use in deep drilling. The primary function of both is to maintain a safe limit of torque on the drill pipe, this being accomplished by automatically controlling the weight or pressure on the cutting tool. Neither type will necessarily increase drilling speed, but by permitting advantage to be taken of "breaks" in the hole higher average cutting speed may be maintained. The control is essentially a safety device, and should be considered as such. It is not the purpose of this paper to discuss the merits of drilling controls, although the advantages over manual feed at the brake drum are obvious, but rather to point out some of the limitations. The Halliburton Control The Halliburton control is designed to operate during drilling through the agency of the draw works. Automatic and constant control of the torque on the bit is governed by clutches on the control itself, and the line shaft to drum shaft drives on the draw works. In operations other than drilling the control is simply a jackshaft between prime mover and draw works. It is, of course, adaptable to any type of power. Because control of the torque on the bit is dependent on the various ratios or clutch combinations available on the Halliburton control and the draw works, it follows that there are certain limitations in points of control. Table 1 shows the possible ratios which can be obtained with the control and a popular type of three-speed draw works, it being assumed that the highest possible gear combination—the combination which when engaged will suspend the least amount of weight—has a value of 1.00. According to the table there are "blind spots" in the series. This is true particularly among the lowest ratios, which are most used to suspend the major part of the weight when great depths are reached. It will be noted that there is a difference of nearly three units in the value of the

Jan 1, 1929

[A Aall, Christian H., M49 A Dir, Smelt & Ref, Am. Metal Climax, Inc., 1270 Ave. of the Americas, New York 20, N. Y. Aaroe, S. L., A54 A VP, W. S. Tyler Co. of Canada Ltd., P. O. Box 100, St. Catharines, Ont., Canada Abalos, Teodulo Q., J57 A Prod Frmn, Lepanto Cons. Mining Co., Lepanto, Mt. Province, Philippines Abbitt, James M., A54 770 Sole Blvd., Bartow, Fla. Abdullah, M. Y., J53 Dept. of Mines Res. Div., P. O. Box 1016 Tiger Lane,-Ipoh Peram, Malaya Abel, John F., Jr., J53 F Mine Engr, Thompson Creek Coal & Coke, Carbondale, Colo. Abell, Leo M., M31 B Const Supt, Phelps Dodge Corp., Morenci, Ariz. Abendroth, H. E., A57 Mangore Australia Pty. Ltd., 901 Hay St., Perth, W. Aust.,, Australia Abenius, Hakan V., M52 Falun, Sweden]

Jan 1, 1961

By Arthur A. Center

WAR demand- motivated developments in the zinc industry during 1942. Stocks of Prime Western were built up and High-Grade remained tight. The Prince The Prime Western stocks are expected to be cut down and the demand for High-Grade more easily filled as the Depue reflux plant of the New Jersery Zinc Co. increases - production. Subistition of steel for brass in artillery shell cases will have a considerable effect on the zinc situation of the country one estimate of the saving in zinc in 1943 by this substitution being a little under 100,000 ton, of metal. The metal saved will, of course be High-Grade. If the substitution occurs, the present tight situation in High-Grade may be entirely relieved as new production comes on the market and zinc may find itself approaching a situation as comfortable as that of lead provided the supply of zinc-hearing raw materials is sufficient to keep all reduction plants tip to capacity production. The premium price of the per pound of zinc over set quotas which went into effect early in 1942, helped to bring about the new lead-slag-fuming plant and other new sources of raw materials.

Jan 1, 1943

By C. A. Stetefeldt

IK the dry-crushing of ores, either by stamps, rolls, or other machinery, it is essential that the material should be free from moisture. Hence a contrivance which effects this with economy, and is of durable and compact construction, is a great desideratum. It is claimed for the below-described shelf dry-kiln, that it possesses these qualifications in a high degree. The construction of the shelf dry-kiln is based on the Hasenclever principle. That is to say, a number of inclined shelves are arranged zig-zag above each other in a vertical shaft, having openings or slits where they meet, on which the ore rests in a stratum, the thickness of which is governed by the width of the slits and the inclination of the shelves. If a portion of the charge is removed at the end of the bottom shelf, a sliding motion of the ore takes place on all shelves above, and the top shelf is replenished from a hopper set over it. It will be seen that the shaft is divided by the shelves into a number of triangular prismatic spaces. Through these the hot gases from a fireplace are made to circulate, each space communicating with the next one by a flue arranged in the sidewall of the shaft. These flues being located on alternate sides of the shaft, a continuous passage is formed through the whole structure. After thus stating the principle of the construction, its details will be easily understood by reference to the drawings, Fig. 1 to Fig. 5. The drawings, Fig. 1 to Fig. 4, represent two kilns united into one structure. The cast iron shelves(a) are 2 feet 4 inches wide and 5 feet long, with sides and a back 4 inches high, and are cast a full halfinch thick. How they rest on the brackets(d), and interlock each other, is shown in Fig. 5. Three such shelves, with an inclination of 38') are placed in one row in a brick shaft 7 feet 1/2 inch wide and 4 feet deep. The ore hoppers(g) rest on the iron bems(f). At the end of the bottom shelves are the discharge-doors(b), with shoots projecting beyond the front wall. A swinging apron(e) keeps the ore in place. By dropping it a car below the shoot is filled with dry ore. A number of extra-large pieces of ore may cause a stoppage in the slits ; for such an emergency the openings(e) are provided, through

Jan 1, 1884

By H. O. Hofman

INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, In deternlining experimentally the fusibility of clays, two kinds of methods may be distinguished—the direct and the indirect. Of the direct methods, that of Seger has found

Jan 1, 1899

By C. W. MacGregor

IN the testing of materials there exist various methods of recording graphically the behavior of a material subjected to tensile stress. Prob-ably the most common method is to plot the tensile stress So, obtained by dividing the load P by the original area of cross section AO at the start of the test, as a function of the strain ?o, which is obtained by dividing the ?Lo or the change in the gauge length by the original gauge length Lo. A list of the symbols used here is given in Table 1. This method, while it has proved useful in the routine testing and comparison of various materials, does not have a very sound physical basis, as was first pointed out by P. Ludwik1, and consequently does not afford a very deep insight into the true physical behavior of the material under stress. Among the objections to this method may be mentioned: (1) that by dividing the load P at any stage of the test by the original area Ao a fictitious stress is obtained, which does not actually exist; (2) that the strain ?o = ?Lo /Lo is not an exact expression for the true strain for large values of ?Lo in per cent of Lo; (3) that when necking starts the strain varies considerably along the gauge length and the above expression no longer gives the true strain existing at any point on the outside of the bar; and (4) that the axial strain varies over the cross section of the necked portion and ?o does not represent an average of these strains over the cross section. Stresses taken from such a diagram would be only approximate and, if used to compare results of a test on a given material under simple tension with results obtained under combined stresses, certain errors would he thus introduced. In order to overcome some of these objections, various methods have been suggested, both as to the quantities to be measured and as to their graphical representation. In some cases the so-called "true stress," obtained by dividing the load P by the actual area of cross section A existing when the load P was applied, is plotted as a function of the strain

Jan 1, 1937

The Inspiration ore body was discovered in 1904, but a 50 -ton mill which was installed to treat the disseminated copper ore promptly failed. The original Inspiration Company then gave way to another, backed by W. B. Thompson, which found 40 million tons of ore. Control then passed to Anaconda and Dr. Louis Ricketts took charge as consulting engineer. He abandoned the mill which had been partially built (to the horror of the stockholders, according to Ira Joralemon) and spent a year and a million dollars experimenting with flotation. The first large copper flotation plant was then built and recovered 50% more copper than had previous gravity mills. It, of course, was highly successful and became the forerunner of modern flotation plants. Inspiration is distinctive as the first fully integrated copper operation in the United States. Three open pits supply sulfide ore to the concentrator and mixed oxide and sulfide ore to a vat leaching and electrowinning operation with leached ore also being sent to the concentrator. In addition, dump leaching supplies pregnant solution for scrap iron precipitation. Inspiration has recently constructed an electric furnace smelter and also operates a continuous casting and rod plant. The new primary 54 in. by 74 in. crusher was completed in May of 1972 and replaced an older unit which was in the way of the open pit development. It is of an unusual circular silo design, which permits dumping 0 from two positions at 90 from each other. One dumping position is in line with the spider, while the other one is at right angles to it. A box girder splitter bar hung from the dump pocket slopes downward from the second dump point, across the spider cap, and rests on the pocket bottom. This splitter was not installed to protect the spider but was to aid in distributing wet ore being dumped from that position to both sides of the spider. Any large amount of wet ore delivered to one side of the spider would pack in the crusher cavity. The round front wall of the 18 ft (5.5 m) deep pocket is unlined except for light steel protection at the top, while the straight back wall is lined with vertically positioned railroad rails. Water for dust suppression is sprayed into the pocket through a cluster of 3/8 in. (9.5 mm) nozzles at the back of the pocket. About 5 gpm (19 lpm) of water are mixed with 90 psi (620 kPa) air upstream of the nozzles to produce a fog which is effective in dust control. The 54 in. Allis -Chalmers gyratory is placed mostly within one quadrant of the circular enclosure to permit placement of the apron feeder on the lowest level in the proper position to transfer crushed ore to the

Jan 1, 1978

By Walter H. Bucher

This symposium is designed to lay the basis for a general discussion of the place of geophysics in the training of geologists. As there is danger that in the ensuing debate individual interests may be given emphasis out of proportion to their place, we shall do well to view the whole field of geological inquiry in order to see the problem in true perspective. The Nature of Geological Inquiry "Basic" and "Complex" Sciences It is convenient to divide all science into two major divisions, the basic and the complex sciences. The basic sciences separate out from reality such entities as "substances" and "movements," describe their behavior in terms of arbitrary units of measurement and derive from them by progressive abstractions concepts and patterns of behavior that exist between them, so-called general "laws" and "properties" of nature. The complex sciences, on the other hand, deal, with little or no abstraction, with those objects of reality that are accessible to man in the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the lithosphere and the biosphere. Their work comprises two types of inquiry. One is concerned with abstractions to the extent of dealing with types rather than individuals—that is, with such things as plants, animals, protoplasm; clouds, streams, gla- ciers; volcanoes and mountain ranges. It comprises the search for general properties and patterns of behavior or "laws" that characterize the objects and their reactions to each other. These properties and laws apply always, everywhere. They are independent of the stream of time. We may call the results of this sort of inquiry timeless knowledge. The other type of inquiry is concerned with the objects themselves—that is, with this animal and that plant; this river system and that mountain chain; this glacier and that valley. Like all concrete objects in nature, they are subject to change with the passage of time, especially when it is measured in years, centuries, eons. The characteristics by which we recognize them —indeed, their very existence—are dependent on their position at this point in the stream of time. This we may call time-bound kntowledge. The so-called descriptive sciences are all bound to the past of which the objects of their study are the product and through which alone their present properties call be understood. They are historical sciences. This obvious fact is easily overlooked, which leads to serious misunderstanding, as we shall see later. Dynamic Geology With this broad picture in mind, let us now examine the nature of geological inquiry, defining, for the purposes of this discussion, geology as the science of rocks. Air is not a rock; water is. Meteorology and climatology are, correspondingly, gen-

Jan 1, 1946

By Walter H. Bucher

This symposium is designed to lay the basis for a general discussion of the place of geophysics in the training of geologists. As there is danger that in the ensuing debate individual interests may be given emphasis out of proportion to their place, we shall do well to view the whole field of geological inquiry in order to see the problem in true perspective. The Nature of Geological Inquiry "Basic" and "Complex" Sciences It is convenient to divide all science into two major divisions, the basic and the complex sciences. The basic sciences separate out from reality such entities as "substances" and "movements," describe their behavior in terms of arbitrary units of measurement and derive from them by progressive abstractions concepts and patterns of behavior that exist between them, so-called general "laws" and "properties" of nature. The complex sciences, on the other hand, deal, with little or no abstraction, with those objects of reality that are accessible to man in the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the lithosphere and the biosphere. Their work comprises two types of inquiry. One is concerned with abstractions to the extent of dealing with types rather than individuals—that is, with such things as plants, animals, protoplasm; clouds, streams, gla- ciers; volcanoes and mountain ranges. It comprises the search for general properties and patterns of behavior or "laws" that characterize the objects and their reactions to each other. These properties and laws apply always, everywhere. They are independent of the stream of time. We may call the results of this sort of inquiry timeless knowledge. The other type of inquiry is concerned with the objects themselves—that is, with this animal and that plant; this river system and that mountain chain; this glacier and that valley. Like all concrete objects in nature, they are subject to change with the passage of time, especially when it is measured in years, centuries, eons. The characteristics by which we recognize them —indeed, their very existence—are dependent on their position at this point in the stream of time. This we may call time-bound kntowledge. The so-called descriptive sciences are all bound to the past of which the objects of their study are the product and through which alone their present properties call be understood. They are historical sciences. This obvious fact is easily overlooked, which leads to serious misunderstanding, as we shall see later. Dynamic Geology With this broad picture in mind, let us now examine the nature of geological inquiry, defining, for the purposes of this discussion, geology as the science of rocks. Air is not a rock; water is. Meteorology and climatology are, correspondingly, gen-

Jan 1, 1946

By Henry G. Morris

The use of compressed air for the transmission of power has reached so great a development that we find numerous large establishments devoted to the manufacture of machinery for its production and application, and special periodicals published for the dissemination of information on the subject. Moreover, its employment is so general in mining operations that no apology is needed for the presentation to the Institute of such a paper as the present. The admirable articles of Mr. E. A. Rix, published in Conzpressed Air, show a wide range in the mechanical efficiency of air-compressors, varying, under different conditions, from 15 to 60 per cent.; and it is evident that any

Jan 1, 1902

By H. C. Jennison

Two distinct types of defects occur at times in copper wire as a result of the use of dies of improper design or undesirable wire-drawing practice. The conditions under which these defects may be produced, as well as precautions to be taken in order to prevent them, have been known to The American Brass Co. for many years. The quality of the copper wire bars and rods has too often and unjustly been held responsible for these particular defects and it is to correct any such belief that this paper is presented. An extremely high quality of electrolytic copper has been supplied to the trade by all refineries for the last 20 years at least. The purity of the copper would average well above 99.900 per cent. The casting of the wire bars has been handled in a generally satisfactory manner. The bars have been cast sound, with a flat to slightly crowning set and have been free from sloppy edges, cold sets, etc. In other words, the wire bars have met A. S. T. M. specifications and have been generally satisfactory. For the most part, they have been everything that could be desired from a quality standpoint yet most of the wire mills in this country and in Europe have at times held the quality of the copper responsible for the two types of defects described in this paper. As a matter of fact, these defects are produced entirely in the wire mills. The author has visited many of the large wire mills in the United States and in Europe to investigate these defects. In some cases the trouble has been so serious that the wire mill has ceased operations. At times the wire mills are reluctant to believe that they are responsible for the defective product. The effect of die design, wire-drawing practice, etc., upon the quality of copper wire has received' little study on the part of wire mills, particularly those that have commenced operations in the last few years.

Jan 1, 1930

By D. B. RUSHNORE, K. A. Pauly

Bulletin. No. 41, May, 1910. ABBREVIATIONS. Al. Ind., Alliance Industrielle. am. Elec'n.. . American. Electrician. Bull. As. Ing. El Bulletin de la Association des Ingenieurs Elec- triciens Sortis de l'Institut Electrotecnique Montefiore, Liege. Bull. Soc. bilge d' Elec Bulletin de la Société belge d'Electriciens. Col. Guard . Colliery Guardian. D. R. P Deutsches Reich Patent. Dilly. Poly Dingler's Polytechniches Journal. E. & DI. Jour Engineering and Mining Journal. E. T. Zeit Electrotechnische Zeitschrift. Eclair. Elec. L'Eclairage Electrique. 1;1. Anzeig Elektrotechnischer Anzeiger

Sep 1, 1910

By Norman D. Fitz Gerald

THE growth of domestic requirements for motor fuel has been phe-nomenal, rising year after year in a fashion almost unique among com-modities, resisting depressions and forging rapidly ahead in times of prosperity. Consumption advanced from 226 millions of barrels in 1925 to 522 millions of barrels in 1938; or 130 per cent. The economic influ-ences generating and sustaining this demand are of vital concern to the petroleum industry. The general factors affecting utilization of motor fuel are well known but it is the purpose of this paper to employ the recently developed technique of economic dynamics to describe them mathematically. Such problems in economic analysis are complicated by the freedom of all the variables to fluctuate, their mutual interdependence, changing incidence upon one another, and the nonquantitative character of some of them. Economic quantities and relationships, unlike those of the physical world, are continuously changing and this dynamic characteristic is both a distinguishing and confusing feature in economic research. The com-plexities of the problems require application of the analytical devices of mathematical statistics to uncover the probable relationships between factors. The procedure employed is to formulate a logical relationship linking the dependent to the independent variables, and then simul-taneously, rather than sequentially, determine their separate effects by multiple correlation. This transformation of common knowledge to quantitative terms makes it possible to measure the probable effects of changing conditions upon requirements, assisting in the sound interpreta-tion of economic policies. The utility of the results of such dynamic analysis is in sharp contrast to the sterility of the trends and other simple empiricisms of descriptive statistics. It is not intended in this study to throw light on the reasons why any motor fuel at all is consumed; but to discover relationships explaining why more was consumed at one time than at another. Specifically the prob-lem is confined to the measurement of the influences of statistically

Jan 1, 1940

Jan 1, 1947