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By Peter B. Lilly

Thank you, Tom, I appreciate that generous introduction - and your generous welcome. When Doris Finnie asked me to speak here today, my decision to join you couldn't have been easier - for two reasons. First, I can't say no to an opportunity to return to Steamboat Springs. My family has wonderful memories of skiing here. And this time of year, golf in the mountains is so good you almost don't miss the skiing. The second reason this was such an easy decision is that The Rocky Mountain Coal Mining Institute is such an important forum for the coal industry, and it's certainly important to Peabody. We have mines in five western states - Arizona, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico and Wyoming. Last year, our western mines produced more than 110 million tons of coal. That's about two-thirds of our total domestic production. So western states are obviously critical to us. A couple of weeks ago, the west became even more significant to Peabody. Of course, I'm speaking of PacifiCorp's planned acquisition of The Energy Group - including Peabody - announced the middle of this month. Admittedly, when I agreed to speak here - some months ago - I had no idea just how much change Peabody would face in this relatively brief period. Still, not knowing then about the PacifiCorp announcement, I chose change as the subject for this talk. I'll update you on our recent news. But, first I want to establish a broad context for the PacifiCorp/Energy Group announcement and other change in the electricity business, change here in the United States and all over the world. ? We'll see how change is driven by two major trends - privatization in emerging markets and deregulation in mature markets, In turn, those two trends will cause ever-increasing consolidation - in both the coal industry and the broader power industry. ? After outlining those trends, I'll discuss the change that will dramatically affect Peabody following the announcement a week ago that PacifiCorp and The Energy Group intend to join forces to create one of the world's largest international integrated energy companies - an event that adds considerable credibility to the prophesies I'll outline in my remarks today. ? Finally, I will discuss an issue that threatens our industry's future - and, indeed, the economic future of all Americans. That issue is the inappropriate response to the unproven possibility of global climate change. Let's set the stage for change. And let's begin with the first trend I mentioned - the trend to privatization in developing economies. What drives the trend to privatization? Economics. It's all about the supply and demand of capital. And the engine that drives the supply/demand ratio is growth in electricity demand - tremendous growth in demand in developing economies. The U.S. EIA projects worldwide growth in electricity demand at 63 percent between 1990 and 2010, most of it in developing countries. This strong growth means that a new 500 MW power plant will be needed every three and one-half days until the year 2010. Now, if we say that a 500 MW plant will cost about $500 million dollars, we're talking about a bill of about $1 billion dollars a week - through 2010. That voracious demand for capital drives the trend to privatization. It means countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union want to sell generating assets. And Asian countries - for example, India, Indonesia and the Philippines - want to find private investors to build power plants. Privatization already is well underway. In the future, it will grow, with countries in South America, Central America, and Africa joining the trend. Bottom line: The privatization trend means rich new opportunities for companies willing to think beyond "business as usual." Meanwhile, developed economies face a different but no less fundamental change. Western European countries, the United States and Australia face deregulation. Why does deregulation represent such a big change? Consider a few basic facts about the U.S. electricity market to see what a big change -

Jan 1, 1997

By Lucas Travi

Um dos tratamentos superficiais mais conhecidos é a nitretação a plasma, que consiste basicamente na introdução de nitrogênio na superfície da ferramenta, na forma de nitretos de elementos de liga, em solução sólida, a fim de criar uma camada protetora que aumenta a vida útil do material. A nitretação a plasma permite o controle da camada formada através do ajuste de parâmetros como temperatura, mistura gasosa e tempo de tratamento. Porém para ferramentas mais complexas é comumente utilizado um novo processo de nitretação, a nitretação a plasma com gaiola catódica que tem como principal diferencial o aquecimento homogêneo das peças, evitando assim a heterogeneidade da camada nitretada. Outra vantagem é que neste processo não é comum ocorrer o acumulo de plasma o que evita o efeito de borda. Neste trabalho, será analisada a importância da menor rugosidade superficial aliada a dureza superficial no comportamento tribológico do material no processo de nitretação a plasma com e sem gaiola catódica. O resultado dos ensaios tribológicos demonstraram que o incremento de dureza associado a uma menor rugosidade superficial obtido para a amostra nitretada com gaiola catódica promoveu uma redução no coeficiente de atrito ao longo do tempo. A rugosidade superficial média para as amostras nitretadas com gaiola catódica foi menor que as nitretadas via processo convencional, aproximando-se do valor obtido para às amostras que foram polidas.

Aug 17, 2017

By Shinroku Matsuzaki

Data the measurement sensor installed with spatial distribution on the blast furnace were successively accumulated online from the process computer to the database system over a long period. This is a new system that accurately considers the relation with the installation position of each sensor, and picture computerization of the measurement data was developed. The overall operation state of a blast furnace, which skilled operators can see in their mind?s eye, was objectively visualized as pictorial information.

Jan 1, 2006

By G. D. Schena

A decision support system for the management of the mineral resources of a developing country has been derived. The system allows the evaluation of the impact of a mineral project in a developing country in the broad context of its economy. The analysis permits the assessment of the overall socio-economic consequences of mineral prospects and allows incorporation in the evaluation of issues that are broader in scope than the pure financial objectives. The system is built around the Leontief framework of economic analysis. The original input-output model, enhanced to incorporate country-specific behaviour is integrated with cost-benefit analysis and shadow pricing. The analysis leads to synthetic measures of profitability at market and shadow prices. These measures are useful to direct the mineral policy of a developing country through the exploitation of those mineral resources which are most likely to bring about economic growth and social advancement.

Jan 1, 1992

By Pedro Damas Resende

Fios ortodônticos de NiTi são alternativas para substituição dos materiais convencionais para a mesma utilização. Quando comparado ao aço inoxidável, NiTi apresenta resistência à corrosão semelhante e características mecânicas superiores, uma vez que produz forças de menor intensidade e constantes numa grande faixa de deformação. Foram caracterizados grupos de fios ortodônticos de dois fabricantes, com diferenças no tipo de ativação e em seus diâmetros. Foram utilizadas microscopia eletrônica de varredura e espectroscopia de energia dispersiva para caracterização superficial e de composição dos fios. As fases presentes foram avaliadas por difração de raios X e ensaios mecânicos de dobramento de três pontos e tração foram conduzidos de forma a avaliar suas propriedades mecânicas. Todas as amostras apresentaram conteúdo de níquel acima de 50,5 at.%. Os fios superelásticos apresentaram recuperação total de forma em ambos os testes mecânicos e os fios termoativados apresentaram recuperação parcial de forma. Os difratogramas obtidos para todos os grupos apresentaram apenas fase austenítica anteriormente ao carregamento. Todos os fios superelásticos apresentaram maior força no descarregamento quando comparados com os termoativados.

Aug 17, 2017

By W. C. Zhu, C. H. Wei, L. L. Niu

With an increase of mining depth, a series of mining-induced hazards such as rockburst, coal and gas outburst, roof collapse, and water burst are getting more serious and more frequent. The intrinsic mechanism responsible for the occurrence of mining-induced hazards is the damage and unstable failure of rockmass or coal seam. The most distinct difference between deep and shallow levels is the so-called three ‘high’ (H3) conditions, i.e. high geo-stress, high fluid pressure and high geo-temperature. Therefore, the response of rock or coal to the deep mining operation is a phenomenon involving thermal (T), hydraulic (H), and mechanical (M) processes. Most importantly, mining excavation may vary the rock stress condition greatly, which may be a key factor to trigger the mining-induced hazards such as rockburst. In this regard, it is of great significance to clarify the damage and failure mechanism of rock and coal under coupled THM conditions, in order to clarify the rock failure mechanism responsible for the occurrence of mining-induced hazards. Thereafter, the mining-induced hazards cannot be predicted with confidence by considering each process independently. Of course, the requirement to include coupling of these processes depends on the specifics of the mining-induced hazards under consideration. For example, the water inrush is considered as a coupled hydro-mechanical (HM) process, in which the unstable failure of rockmass occurs under the combined contribution of geo-stress and water pressure. As for the coal mining at depth, in addition to high geo-stress and gas pressure in coal seam, the high geo-thermal condition that may greatly change the adsorption / desorption of gas and gas flow should be taken into account. Firstly, a general-purpose mathematical model for rock damage and failure process under coupled THM conditions is formulated based on damage mechanics principle, and it is solved by finite element method (FEM). In this model, the deformation and damage of rock, fluid flow and thermal transfer in rock would interact with each other, one process affects and initiation and progress of another. Then, the model is used to predict the mining-induced water outburst, where it is simulated as coupled hydro-mechanical (HM) problems. Based on the numerical simulation, the dimension of water-proof pillar is designed. Finally, the gas drainage from deep coal seam is numerically evaluated, where the coupled coal-gas interaction considering the effect of gas adsorption/desorption, gas flow in coal seam and geo-stress and geotemperature, is comprehensively taken into account. The proposed model could be used for clarifying the mechanism of mining-induced hazards in deep-level mining.

Jan 1, 2015

By Marcio José Cuccolo Rosales

A soldagem por brasagem a vácuo promove a união de materiais dissimilares com alto valor agregado. Este trabalho visa estudar a interação química do nitreto de boro hexagonal (h-BN) na interface de ligação brasada do par Kovar®/h-BN. As variáveis de processo são determinantes para formação da junta brasada metalurgicamente estável. O trabalho estuda a molhabilidade do h-BN quando em contato com ligas de adição do sistema eutético Ag-Cu durante a solidificação. Foram conduzidos ensaios no h-BN a fim de caracterizar sua aplicação no sensor de posição do feixe de elétrons (BPM) do projeto do Sirius, e as propriedades que influenciam o seu processamento durante a brasagem, como coeficiente de expansão térmica e molhabilidade superficial. Os ensaios de brasagem com a liga Ag-Cu-4,5Ti, mostraram boa molhabilidade e espalhamento na superfície, favorecendo a formação da junta sem descontinuidades. As reações na interface são complexas no sentido de formação de novas fases e intermetálicos e, influenciadas pela seleção dos materiais, que possuem diferentes temperaturas de fusão e coeficientes de expansão térmica. Os resultados indicam que a seleção da liga com Ti, que é o elemento de ativação, promove a interação na superfície do h-BN com os demais materiais da junta.

Oct 30, 2017

By J. C. Beidelman

One of the oldest settled portions of Canada is that "strip of land" extending into the Gulf of St. Lawrence, known as the Gaspe peninsula, with the Bay of Chaleur on its southern boundary. This "strip of land" is still so very sparcely populated that only at a few places does settlement extend more than a few miles from the coast. ? The peninsula is 160 miles long, 75 miles wide and with the exception of the above mentioned settlements is a mountainous wildness-void of all roads or inhabitants. Developments in the interior, of all nature, out-side of the cutting of timber by limit holders, was entirely lacking until the year 1915, when mining was first commenced. In the summer of 1844 Sir William Logan made a preliminary survey across the peninsula, from Cape Chat on the Gulf of St. Lawrence to Cascapedia on the Bay of Chaleur, passing through a country ?of which very little was known at that time. After a rather rough trip to the headwaters of the Grand Cascapedia river, Logan's party descended this river to its mouth, passing ten miles west of what is now known as the Federal mines. There is no record of Logan, or of any of his party, finding zinc or lead ores of any character on their journey across the peninsula, and until 1909 no precious or base metals were discovered within reasonable distance of Logan's survey.

Jan 1, 1924

By Xiang-dong XING, Zhen-yang wang, Xing-le LIU, Jian-Liang Zhang

Experiments were carried out by adding CaF2 as catalyst in a Ar atmosphere to study the isothermal reduction kinetics of vanadium titano-magnetite carbon composite pellets under high temperature in the range from1473 to 1673K. By analyzing reduction mechanism, it was found that the rate controlling step was gas diffusion, and the activation energy was 178.39kJ•mol-1 without adding any catalysts. Adding CaF2 of 3% to vanadium titano-magnetite carbon composite pellets can decrease the apparent activation energy of reduction, and the decrease extent was 14.95kJ•mol-1. In addition, temperature is an important factor influencing on reaction rate.

Jan 1, 2015

By Juliana Mesquita de Andrade

Em sistemas cerâmicos policristalinos as homojunções e heterojunções podem apresentar comportamento elétrico desde completamente ôhmico até com elevada característica retificadora, que no limite é a base do comportamento varistor, o qual é o dispositivo de proteção de sistemas e equipamentos eletro-eletrônicos contra sobretensões mais utilizado. Os óxidos de zinco (ZnO) e de estanho (SnO2) são, individualmente, base dos varistores com melhores comportamentos elétricos. Este trabalho, com base nas caracterizações estruturais por técnicas de microscopia eletrônica de varredura e análises termodilatométricas, e na caracterização elétrica e dielétrica, avalia as propriedades varistoras de cerâmicas à base do sistema misto ZnO-SnO2. Verifica-se a formação de um sistema polifásico apresentando homojunções e heterojunções com diferentes características morfológicas e graus de densificação, exibindo ainda comportamento eletrotérmico com predomínio de características varistoras em função da dopagem da matriz mista ZnO-SnO2. Os resultados obtidos evidenciam a tendência da formação de espinélio (Zn2SnO4) em presença de grãos de SnO2 e do estabelecimento de comportamento varistor (coeficiente de não-linearidade > 10), que pode ser aperfeiçoado por dopagem adicional e por tratamentos térmicos, principalmente quanto à redução da corrente de fuga e da ampliação e estabilização da região não-linear da curva tensão x corrente elétrica.

Aug 7, 2018

By D J. Alchin

Most of South AfricaÆs high-grade iron ore resources are hosted within a fault-controlled structural basin in rocks of the Palaeoproterozoic Transvaal Supergroup in the Northern Cape Province of South Africa. Iron mineralisation occurs as individual orebodies in fault-bounded basins or as fold-controlled concordant lenses around an unconformity plane above the Kuruman Banded Iron Formation. The Sishen mine near Kathu and the beeshoek mine and Sishen South deposit near Postmasburg lie on the northern and southern border of a major domal structure known as the Maremane dome, respectively. The effects and structural constraints of at least three orogenic compressive episodes and several intermittent extensional episodes on the formation, erosion and preservation of iron mineralisation on the Maremane dome and surrounding environs were investigated. Ventersdorp impactogenal rift basin development at ~2.78 - 2.64 Ga, finalised with the deposition of the volcano-sedimentary Vryburg Formation during the thermal subsidence stage at ~2.64 - 2.6 Ga, and was followed by tectonic quiescence/stability and an extensive marine transgression across the entire Kaapvaal craton. The drowning event led to the formation of a carbonate platform with the deposition of the Schmidtsdrif and Campbellrand subgroups conformably above the Vryburg Formation at ~2.6 - 2.52 Ga. The initiation of distal (to the west of the Kaapvaal craton) off-craton oceanic rifting, causing submarine volcanism and associated hydrothermal activity, led to the deposition of initially manganiferous chert (Wolhaarkop Formation) followed by banded ironstone formations (Manganore Iron/Kuruman Formation) of the Asbestos Hill Subgroup at ~2.52 - 2.46 Ga. Initial passive margin rifting along the N-S oriented western edge of the Kaapvaal craton, initiated at the end of Ghaap Group time (during Koegas Subgroup deposition) at ~2.46 - 2.35 Ga, formed a prominent system of N-S striking, westerly dipping normal faults. Easterly directed crustal compression in post-Ghaap Group time in response to the Kalahari Orogeny (accretion of Rehoboth craton along western edge (Kalahari suture zone) of the Kaapvaal craton at ~2.35 - 2.24 Ma led to the formation of large-scale regional, N-trending F1-folds. Partial to complete inversion of the Koegas passive margin rift system (ie reverse dip-slip reactivation of the N-S striking normal fault system to high-angle reverse faults and dextral strike-slip reactivation of the Ventersdorp rift system developed in the Archaean basement), was followed by uplift, erosion and formation of a regional angular unconformity (Postmasburg unconformity). Uplift was accompanied by deposition of fluvio-glacial sediments of the Makganyene Formation (Lower Postmasburg Group) within an intracratonic peripheral foreland basin setting unconformable above Ghaap Group strata at ~2.35 - 2.24 Ga. Post-orogenic crustal relaxation and rifting caused extensional reactivation of the N-trending Palaeoproterozoic passive margin rift system and NE-trending Neoarchaean Ventersdorp impactogenal rift system, forming a fault-controlled depository for the volcano-sedimentary Upper Postmasburg Group at ~2.24 - 2.1 Ga. Deceleration in rifting was succeeded by thermal subsidence of the Upper Postmasburg Group rift, erosion, formation of a regional angular unconformity and deposition of clastic sediments of the Lower Olifantshoek Supergroup unconformable above Postmasburg Group strata at ~2.1 - 1.93 Ga. Renewed rifting led to the deposition of volcano-sedimentary units of the Upper Olifantshoek Supergroup within a rift system superimposed on the Postmasburg Group rift depository at ~1.93 - 1.83 Ga. Easterly directed crustal compression during the Kheis Orogeny at ~1.83 - 1.73 Ga led to renewed inversion of rift structures of the Postmasburg Group and Olifantshoek Supergroup depository, N-trending F2 folding and thin-skinned thrusting of older rock units eastwards over the cratonic cover, thereby utilising planes of weakness in the strata such as prominent unconformities and lithological contrast boundaries as principal dTcollements. NNW-directed crustal compression in response to Lomanian (Namaqua-Natal) Orogeny at ~1.15 - 1.0 G along the southern margin of the Kaapvaal craton, resulted in minor sinistral strike-slip reactivation of the N-S striking fault system, the formation of extensional NNW-SSE striking fracture/fault zones and the development of ENE-trending F3 folds forming a F2/F3 fold interference pattern. Post-Lomanian tectonic events (eg the Pan-African Orogeny at ~650 - 500 Ma, the Cape Orogeny at ~310 - 240 Ma, and the Gondwana breakup at 205 - 120 Ma), caused only comparatively minor extensional reactivation of the pre-existing fault systems. Iron mineralisation was ultimately preserved from erosion by Kheis Orogeny-related N-trending F2 synclines and Lomanian Orogeny-related ENE-trending F3 synclines, in particular areas of interference between F2 and F3 synclines representing comparatively deep semi-circular trough- like depressions, as well as in half grabens formed adjacent to reactivated westerly dipping N-S normal faults. Support for relating the iron and manganese mineralisation to structurally controlled hydrothermal fluid flow during the Kheis orogenic event has also been found, and ongoing research is aimed at confirming and refining the hydrothermal model for iron ore mineralisation in the Northern Cape.

Jan 1, 2007

By R. E. Morgan, Barkleym J. F.

"INTRODUCTION Wood burned for commercial heat and power usually is waste material from some manufacturing process. The amount of it reaches substantial proportions. It is estimated that over 50 percent of the timber cut for lumber becomes ""waste"" in the process - sawdust, shavings, trimmings, slabs, and bark. Woodworking manufacturing processes also produce much waste. The incentive to use this waste has resulted in much development of wood-burning equipment to produce heat and power. To answer general inquiries received by the Bureau, this publication covering developments along these lines was written. There is included a bibliography of additional information on the subject.COMPOSITION AND BURNING CHARACTERISTICS OF WOODThe approximate composition of moisture-free wood is, in even figures:PercentHydrogen 6Carbon 49Oxygen 44Ash 1Total 100This composition corresponds to about C6H1005. Moisture is essentially always associated with wood. Green wood contains approximately 30 to 50 percent moisture; air-dried or seasoned wood contains 15 to 25 percent and kiln-dried about 8 percent. Exposed to the weather, wood absorbs and gives off moisture depending on weather conditions and water contact.""Dry"" wood ignites relatively quickly and readily gives off volatile matter when heated. Long flames and smoke easily occur during burning. The burning action is substantially retarded, however, by appreciable moisture content; ignition is more difficult. When the moisture content is more than about 70 percent, an auxiliary fuel is required to maintain combustion. One of the main factors in the problem of the satisfactory and smokeless combustion of wood is its moisture content."

Sep 1, 1950

By R. J. Burgess

During World War II the shortage of ore revived interest in eastern iron deposits, among which -!2..c "Ile Massachusetts and Connecticut limonites. The Cheever mine, in the Richmond-Salisbury area of Massachusetts, was formerly a large producer of limonite ere. The Bureau of Mines investigated the lateral and downward extensions of the Cheever ore body, which was mined from about 1850 to 1892, by ap open cut 1,000 feet long and also by underground workings. even holes aggregating 1,723 feet, were drilled by the Bureau during the winter of 1943-44. They comprised three diamond-core drill holes, two churn-drill holes, and two rotary-drill holes. A geophysical survey of the Cheever mine area and adjoining ground was made in conjunction with the drilling program. Although this survey did not locate the limonite ore beds, the data were of considerable assistance in locating the limestone contact which forms the footwall of the ore beds. Drilling disclosed two beds of limonite with a heavy overburden of glacial till.

Jan 1, 1949

By Renato Drescher Subtil

A tecnologia de cominuição de minérios através de Prensas de Rolos de Alta Pressão vem se destacando nos diversos segmentos da mineração, o que faz com que as usinas de pelotização de minério venham introduzindo Prensas de Rolos em seu processo produtivo. Apesar dos benefícios dessa mudança, observa-se pouco conhecimento da influência das variáveis intervenientes ao processo de prensagem e sua relação com o Ganho de Superfície Específica. Essa compreensão é fundamental para a maximização do desempenho de prensagem. Esse artigo utiliza Redes Neurais Artificiais (RNA) para predição dos resultados no Ganho de Superfície Específica e quantifica a relevância de cada variável no processo de prensagem. Os valores preditos gerados pela RNA obtiveram ótima aproximação com os dados reais, o que indica que utilização de RNA possibilita a intervenção proativa no processo produtivo podendo resultar em uma melhoria de desempenho da prensa.

Aug 17, 2017

By Rodrigo Rossi

Evaluating the field of artificial intelligence, it could be seen an increase on video analyses (or computer vision) usage, capturing information that would be difficult to get with other techs and reducing measurement error. After this research, it was presented to operational managers and the idea of applying it to monitor our industrial processes was born.

Sep 29, 2023

By L. R. P. de Andrade Lima, D. Hodouin

The paper presents a survey of the possibilities of the simulation techniques for improving the design and operation of gold processing plants. The procedure to construct kinetic models that are used in simulators is first reviewed, and examples are given for cyanide gold dissolution and gold adsorption on carbon. Then, an overview of the structures of the plant simulators is proposed, and the simulation equations formulated for a carbon-in-leach process. Finally, the potential of simulation methods is illustrated by four examples. The first one shows how it is possible to use a simulator to design a cascade of leaching tanks while optimizing an economic performance criterion. The second one illustrates the role of simulators for optimal tuning of the cyanide addition strategy in a leaching circuit. The third example focuses on the power of simulation to design carbon transfer strategies in a carbon-in-pulp process. Finally, the last example shows the role of on-line simulators for optimally supervising the automatic control of cyanide addition into leaching tanks.

Jan 1, 2005

By R. L. Minckler

PETROLEUM industry forecasts are constantly made and revised but are not in the nature of predictions. Particularly in the field of demand, many of the factors are far beyond control by the producing industry. Supply reacts on demand and demand reacts on supply. Competent economists in the oil business forecasted a year ago, on the basis of experience, that demand would now be at a much lower level than it is. This increased demand increased the price of crude oil and products, and in turn those increased prices have brought forth increased supply. A reduction in demand would lead to a reduction in supply. Shortages are now world-wide, and costs of secondary importance, so if there were extra supplies in California they would be moved into what are termed "unnatural markets." For example, Argentina is in the market today for California gasoline; that is an unnatural market because of the greater transportation distances from California to Argentina than from normal sources.

Jan 1, 1947

By Charles K. Rose

The Cebolla Creek titaniferous iron deposits near Powderhorn in southern Gunnison County, Colo., were examined by the Federal Bureau of Mines as part of an overall program to investigate the Nation's titanium and iron resources. The deposits occur around the periphery of the Iron Hill stock, which underlies an area of about 12 square miles. Concentrations of magnetite, ilmenite, and perovskite arc localized along fractures in the pyroxenite stock. Mineralogical studies of composite surface samples collected in 1956 showed that most of the iron is present in ilmenite-bearing magnetite. Perovskite is the chief titanium mineral in the magnetite-rich and augite-rich types, and sphene is the principal titanium mineral in the placer material. The mica-rich rock contains approximately equal amounts of perovskite, ilmenite, and sphene.

Jan 1, 1960

By C. Sun

The Leeville underground mine has been in operation since 2006 and currently produces 3,300 tons of ore per day with an average gold grade of 0.4 opt. The mine has a large horizontal extent of 2,500 feet by 500 feet and a vertical extent of 20 to 200 feet. Based on the characteristics of the ore bodies, the deposits are divided into several mining zones. The geotechnical properties of mining zones are also different from one zone to another. A successful geotechnical collection system is very important for the mining designs and operations in the Leeville underground mine.

Jan 1, 2010

By Alistair James, Mo Shahsavari, Leon Botham

The 1889 Johnstown Flood, which killed 2,209 people, was a preventable disaster stemming from systemic decisionmaking failures. This paper applies modern Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) frameworks to analyze the historical context and explore alternative outcomes through hypothetical multiverse scenarios. By reconstructing the risk landscape of the South Fork Dam, we demonstrate how structured hazard identification, risk assessment, and stakeholder communication could have mitigated or prevented the catastrophe. Three counterfactual scenarios—proactive maintenance, community engagement, and regulatory oversight—are evaluated to quantify potential lives saved and economic benefits. The study acknowledges historical barriers, including technological limitations, lack of governance, and socioeconomic disparities, which constrained risk-aware decisions in the 19th century. The analysis draws critical parallels to contemporary engineering challenges, particularly in tailings storage facility (TSF) management, where similar risk blind spots persist. The paper concludes that RIDM is not merely a technical tool but a governance imperative, essential for ethical and sustainable engineering practice. By learning from historical near-misses and failures, the modern engineering community can strengthen resilience and accountability. This work contributes to the growing body of retrospective risk analysis, offering a methodological framework for applying RIDM to historical disasters to inform future safety standards.

Feb 22, 2026