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By W. H. Yarroll

This paper presents a general discussion of the utility of the statistical technique known as multiple correlation, and gives three specific examples of its application. The first demonstrates the most simple form, or straight-line, multiple correlation. The other two demonstrate multiple correlation analysis in best-fitting third-degree parabolas. With the increasing availability of digital computers, the method becomes entirely feasible where heretofore its use was impractical. The advantages of the method are discussed, and curves are presented which were developed by computerizing the regression equations developed in the examples. The method described in this paper is for use with complex systems, and the examples given are complex metallurgical systems. This subject falls under the general classification of cybernetics, which is defined' as "the science of control and communication, in the animal and the machine." Machine, in this case, can include chemical and physical processes which take place within machines and processing equipment of all kinds. The classical approach to scientific investigation has been the construction of simple models and the changing of variables one at a time. This method is wholly inadequate for obtaining useful information from the complex systems of modern technology including many of our flotation and hydrometallurgical processes. Cybernetics offers the method by which complex systems which have been implemented as an art in the past can now be analyzed with all the discipline of a science. Mathematical techniques for achieving multiple correlation analysis have decided advantages over some of the other statistical methods.2-4 Multiple correlation does not require a series of experiments that have been rigidly planned as do many of the other statistical methods. For this reason, it can be used effectively for interpretation of information from op- erating plants, where planned experiments are impractical, as well as for laboratory experiments. First-degree multiple correlation has been used for many years, and was useful, but limited to linear or nearly linear relationships. The technique described in this paper provides a method for analyzing systems which may be non-linear. This particular technique is multiple correlation analysis in best-fitting third-degree parabolas. It is quite possible that lack of reference to the technique has been due to the overwhelming mass of computations it requires even for relatively simple problems. With the advent of computers, however, its use has become entirely feasible. For the benefit of those who may not be familiar with the subject, it might be well to pause at this point to discuss multiple correlation analysis — what it is and what it achieves. To go back to the old familiar fitting of a set of points with a best-fitting straight line by the least squares procedure, it is conceded that this a good method where there is only one independent variable influencing the dependent variable under consideration, and providing that the relationship is linear. In most fields of investigation, however, there are usually a number of factors exerting important influence, and they frequently bear relationships with the dependent variable other than straight line. Under these conditions, it is easy to see how misleading a simple correlation study might be. Multiple correlation can be used for any number of variables. Within the experience of the writer, this technique has been used to establish regression equations for determination of carbon rate, burden permeability, and production rate on iron blast furnaces, production rate on open hearth steel furnaces, life of molds for steel ingots, rolled steel tensile strength and various defects in rolled products, the performance of ore dressing equipment, and optimization of extractive metallurgical process variables. The discovery of mathematical correlation does not prove, per se, true cause-and-effect relationship, but simply establishes a hypothesis. If the regression equation can be used to make successful predictions of what will happen with future arrays of independent variables, then one can feel reasonably assured that true cause-and-effect relationships have been discovered.

Jan 1, 1968

By F. W. Bowdish

A theoretical and experimental laboratory study has shown that the rate of breaking of oversized particles in a ball mill is proportional to 1) the concentration of such particles, and 2) the area of the balls, provided that the balls are larger than a certain size relative to the particles. If all undersized material were removed as formed, the rate of breaking would be almost independent of the quantity in the mill. Rate equations are given which are similar to those for zero, first, and second order reactions. Deviations of small balls from the equation for a second order phenomena are quantified by a factor called "nipping efficiency." Some data are correlated by a dimension-less equation, which is used to estimate nipping efficiencies from data not in the correlation. The investigation described here was undertaken after a literature survey revealed that little was known concerning the mechanism of breaking of particles within a ball mill and the effect of this mechanism upon grinding rates. One paper, by Roberts1 , offered a theory concerning the mechanism of breaking, and a rate equation for the breaking of particles larger than some size to particles smaller than that size. That paper provided the starting point for a theoretical and experimental investigation of grinding under carefully controlled conditions. THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS In his paper on the probability theory of ball mill grinding, Roberts theorized that "... a given expenditure of power leads either to a certain number of point to point blows per bp-hr or to a certain distance of line contact per hp-hr ..." He assumed that the balls touch each other during each blow or during moving contact. Then he said that a volume of pulp, dependent upon the size being considered, would be covered per minute within which all oversized particles would be crushed to particles smaller than that size. Naturally, the higher the concentration of oversized particles in the pulp, the higher the rate of which they would be broken. From this reasoning Roberts obtained the differential equation -dC/dt = k hp/ton C (1) where k is a constant for any size of particle, density of particle, and moisture content of pulp. C is the percentage of oversize in the material to be ground, t is the time, and hp/ton is the power input per ton of material in the mill. He then integrated the equation to log Co/Ct = k/2.3 hp/ton t , where Co and Ct are the percentage of oversize at time zero and t respectively. By always using the same quantity of material in a mill and assuming that it required constant power to run the mill, he was able to combine the horsepower per ton factor with the other constants to give an equation for a first order rate.

Jan 1, 1961

By P. K. Guerrero, N. Arbiter

The correlation of power consumed by a tumbling mill with the dimensions, speed, and load has been attempted by three principal methods. One of these, the torque formula, has been reviewed critically elsewhere.' This approach, while analytical, disregards the individual motion and speed of the tumbling bodies and assumes that the gross geometry of the entire load is sufficient to establish the power requirement. A more general approach, using dimensional analysis, has been applied in this laboratory by the present authors1'1, and more recently by Rose.3 This disregards the internal conditions within the mill entirely and in effect is an empirical procedure for correlating data. Finally, the complete analysis of tumbling mill dynamics as first made by Davis' attempts to develop the power requirement from individual ball and rod paths and velocities. Although Davis' result is applicable only at a single speed for a given size and load it could be useful, since his optimum speed is at the upper limits of conventional tumbling mill practice. Where power values predicted by the Davis equation were compared with actual mill requirements, they were found too low for small mills and much too high for the largest mills. This suggested that the agreement with actual intermediate range requirements might be fortuitous, and the development of the equation was examined critically. The probable source of error was found to lie in an erroneous assumption made by Davis in converting the energy of ball or rod motion to power. With the same approach, but with different assumptions, a modified equation has been obtained which predicts results that are usually consistently high. This is to be expected, since it is assumed that there is no slip between load and shell and no interference among tumbling bodies. Both these effects should account for the difference. Development of Equation: When a cylindrical shell charged with a substantial weight of rods or balls is slowly rotated about a horizontal axis, the load surface first assumes an inclination that gradually increases to a maximum. Continued rotation results in failure within the load, characterized by a sliding of the top layers down the slope and a reduction in the angle of inclination. Further rotation again increases the angle, and the cycle repeats. If the speed is increased, there is continuous load failure and build-up and a continuous stream of rods or balls descends over the upcoming mass, which moves in circular arcs. At higher speeds the up-

Jan 1, 1961

By J. W. Snavely

WITH all the advantages of handling bulk materials by means of belt conveyor also go some problems, one of the most persistent being that of cleaning. When sticky materials are being carried; the build-up of material on the return idler rolls results in difficulty of belt training. Much attention has been given to the problem of cleaning conveyor belts, and a great variety of cleaning devices have been developed. Even the best involve troublesome maintenance, and none can completely remove the fine particles imbedded in the belt cover, which cause rapid wear of the return idler rolls, and at the same time, of the belt cover as well. One of the major rubber companies has been promoting a two-way belt system, in which the conveyor belt is given two successive 90" twists at each end to enable it to carry material in both directions simultaneously. For many years the flat belt transmission industry has installed quarter-turn and half-turn twists in countless numbers of instances. While quarter-turn and half-turn twists in transmission belts is a familiar application, the 180" twist apparently has never been previously attempted with a conveyor belt. About a year ago, two officials of the National Iron Co. of Duluth, Lester and Lewis Erickson, proposed twisting the return run of a conveyor belt on an installation that they were designing for one of the major iron ore producers. Since then the soundness of the idea has been demonstrated, both in theory and by practical test, with the result that the installation of two conveyor belts involving the twisting of the return run is now under way. These two installations are designed to have the return run of the conveyor belt twisted 180" as it leaves the snub pulley at the head drive. The clean underside of the belt is thus placed against the idlers on the return run as well as on the carrying run. Just before it enters the tail pulley, the belt will be twisted an additional 180°, restoring it to its normal position. Because this twisting of the return run of a conveyor belt is a radical departure from accepted practice, an elaborate and extensive test was conducted early in 1950 to demonstrate that this twisting of the return run could be done successfully, also to establish application data for accomplishing this twisting, and to determine if any special equipment would be required. In studying this concept of twisting the return run of a conveyor belt, a number of problems need to be solved, primarily the ones brought about by deliberately introducing an unequal distribution of stress across the conveyor belt and controlling that maldistribution of stress, while confining it to the return run portion. The tension conditions existing in the return run of a conveyor belt are clear to all designers. First, the return run carries the initial or slack side tension of the conveyor belt, the tension that must be supplied to the return run to provide proper frictional contact between the belt and the driving pulley so that the necessary power can be transmitted from the driving pulley to the belt without slippage. This slack side tension is supplied to the belt by means of takeups, either of the gravity type, which can be vertical or horizontal, or by means of the screw type. With inclined or declined belt conveyors the slope tension also must be considered, which is the tension imposed by the weight of the belt hanging from the top pulley. This slope tension frequently can furnish part or even all of the initial tension required. The maximum value of the slope tension will be at the top pulley, and it decreases in direct proportion to the length. In addition to the foregoing, it frequently is desirable to impose arbitrarily additional slack side tension to provide sufficient tension at the loading point at the tail, so that the belt will adequately support its load between the carrying idlers. Design Conditions for Twisting A number of design conditions exist, which must be satisfied successfully to accomplish the twisting of the return run without exceeding normal working limits in any portion of the conveyor belt. It is obvious that the belt edge, in its relation to the center of the belt, must stretch in making a twist, because as the twist is accomplished, the belt edge travels through a longer path than does the center of the belt. It is further obvious that if the edge of the belt is stretched, a redistribution of stress in the belt is required to allow this edge stretching. Moreover, this stress will be unequal across the width of the belt, having a maximum value at the edges, with a minimum value at the- center of the belt. With correct initial tension in the return run of a conveyor belt, the existing slack side tension will be unequally distributed when a twist is introduced. A condition then exists in which the edge stresses,

Jan 1, 1952

By Rodney L. Stone, David S. Cahn

As part of an over-all laboratory and plant test program to determine mixing ad other techniques for a more economic use of bentonite as an iron ore pellet binder, a settling test for measuring the bentonite content within a pellet or a batch of pellets has been developed. Through this test, it has been shown that dry fracture load is directly proportional to bentonite content in batches of pellets, but inversely propor tional to bentonite content in individual pellets of the same batch. This apparent paradox is explained by a negative correlation between a pellet's size and its bentonite content and the fact that large pellets can withstand a higher fracture load than small pellets. In past attempts to characterize green and dry iron ore pellets, the authors found large variations in the results of strength tests on closely sized pellets from the same batch.' Reasons advanced for such variations in the quality of pellets in which the binder is bentonite were the presence of internal flaws and the nonuniform distribution of the binder. Even when resulting pellet strength is good, there is still the question of whether the same strength could have been attained through a more effective use of a smaller amount of bentonite. The authors' own and other studies 2-3 have pointed out the strong dependence of pellet strength on the degree of "mixedness" of the iron ore concentrate and the bentonite binder. However, before such a relationship could serve as a guide for the development of better mixing techniques and the associated economy of

Jan 1, 1969

By W. V. Long, D. H. Reynolds, R. B. Bhappu

Equilibrium distribution coefficients were determined for some monovalent and polyvalent ions for several absorbing and exchanging media as functions of pH and initial ion concentration. Among ions studied were NH4 (I), K(I), Ni(II), Ce(III), Th(IV), and Mo(VI). Absorbents used were: ion exchange resins; a tertiary, and a quaternary amine in an inert solvent; and some activated carbons. The ions studied were in aqueous HCI, HNO3, H2SO4, or HC104 solutions. The classical mass action expression proved of little value in describing the variations observed. The data indicate that the determining factors in absorption and ion exchange may be the ionic species in the aqueous solution, which in turn depend upon pH, dilution, and perhaps other conditions. Three sorption processes have become prominent in recovering values from leach solutions. These are: 1) ion exchange, 2) solvent extraction (liquid ion exchange), and 3) physical adsorption by materials of high specific surface. In the first two of these processes the exchange reaction is considered chemical in nature, and is discussed in terms of the mass action principle. The third is considered a surface phenomenon and is discussed in terms of surface areas and various forms (Gouy, Stern, Grahame, etc.) of the Helmholtz double-layer theory. Generally speaking, we have found in chemical analysis and hydrometallurgical studies that there are close similarities between the three sorption processes, and also differences which are difficult to reconcile with any of the usual theoretical treatments. That others have experienced the same troubles is shown by the fact that usable processes, in chemical analysis as well as in hydrometallurgy, generally are discovered by empirical procedures. EXPERIMENTAL CONSlDERATlONS The gaps between theory and practice have allowed many conflicting statements to appear in the litera- ture. To learn, in particular, the behavior of some metallic ions on a cation exchange resin at a constant pH, equilibration studies were made over a wide range of concentrations.' Results are shown in Fig. 1 for four metals in hydrochloric acid solution on a strongly acidic cation exchange resin, AG 50W-X8 (Bio-Rad). The distribution coefficient, defined as D = amount of metal extracted per g of resin/amount of metal unextracted per ml of solution is seen to vary in a way to support all manner of reports about its behavior with changes in solution concentration. The metals used were chosen from those least likely to form stable chloro-complexes. The changes of slope in the various isotherms may reflect formation of unsuspected chloro-complexes of low stability (ion-pairing for example) whose concen-

Jan 1, 1967

Official Program

Jan 8, 1950

By Donald A. Dahlstrom

In 1961 it became increasingly more evident that significant technological changes must be made in minerals beneficiation. The status quo in technology in today's competitive markets will not be tolerated. Higher productivity, greater recoveries and newer and better products must be sought and incorporated with lower operating costs. In other words, "when you build a new mill, don't build an old mill." Recommended reading for proof of the vital necessity of new methods and techniques is in the September 1961 issue of MINING ENGINEERING. The article by one of MBD's cherished and true veterans, E. H. Rose, is entitled "Iron Ore: The BIG Picture". Because of new beneficiation methods for iron ores, nearly 47 million tons of plus 60% iron concentrates will be produced and another 40.1 million tons of capacity will be under construction or committed. Thus in a relatively short period, 87 million tons of this high-grade iron concentrate with record low silica will be available. As Mr. Rose also points out, "in gross tons, without allowance for better grade, this is the equivalent of almost exactly two-thirds of all iron ore used for all purposes in the U.S. and Canada in the peak years of 1953 or 1957." Needless to say, improved mineral beneficiation methods have had far more reaching effects than just the production of higher grade iron concentrate.

Jan 2, 1962

In 1962, minerals beneficiation showed definite signs of coming out of the doldrums into which it has drifted after the uranium boom. Demand by steelmakers for high-grade iron pellets has created the need for concentrating plants to upgrade specular hematite by spiral concentration or flotation and magnetites by magnetic means and flotation. According to a paper given at the AMC annual meeting by C. S. Arms of Pickands Mather, "the shipment of pellets, started in the mid-1950's, has increased to 17.6 million tons in 1961 from North American operations. Many plants already underway will raise this production to about 42 million tons by 1965. This will be a very sizeable percentage of the total iron ore production contemplated by that date." Iron ore concentration methods are gradually raising the assay of pellets into the 65 to 69% Fe range and lowering silica to the 4 to 7% range. Quebec Cartier's Lac Jeannine concentrator went into operation in late 1961 and all grinding units were running by 1962. The Iron Ore Co. of Canada's new Carol Lake plant was started in mid-1962.

Jan 2, 1963

By J. N. Murphy

The use of the National Science Teachers Association (NSTA) regional meetings as a forum to educate teachers on the role of minerals in our society has been immeasurably successful. Each year, on average about 3,500 to 4,000 teachers participate in each of the three regional NSTA meetings. At each of these meetings, nearly 2,000 teachers visit the “Minerals Coalition Booth” and receive free mineral samples and other educational support materials. Some rules of thumb for a successful booth at the NSTA are provided. Considering the level of effort for such a booth, are there alternatives? The NSTA also organizes a national annual meeting with attendance of about 20,000. All who have participated in a regional NSTA agree that the traditional approach of providing a mineral set and teacher materials for a substantial fraction of the 20,000 attendees is not feasible. Conceptual alternatives for minerals education at the national NSTA meeting are introduced and evaluated.

Jan 1, 2001

By Robert A. Clifton

It seems probable that more and more minerals will be used in plastics as time goes on. This must occur because the minerals will; aid in processability, enhance the engineering properties, reduce the cost, and above all conserve large amounts of petroleum based chemicals. This paper examines the advantages and disadvantages of using the minerals and the ability of the domestic minerals industry to support this possibly very large undertaking. In the author's opinion, it can. This talk is excerpted from a forthcoming Bureau of Mines Information Circular.

Jan 1, 1985

The accompanying supply/demand flow diagrams and 10-year tables for mineral and fuel commodities present essential data required by government, industry, and others to formulate policies and programs that can help assure an adequate and continuing supply of mineral raw materials. The 10-year data base terminates with 1973 figures because adequate world information was not available beyond that date. Moreover, 1974 was an anomalous year with respect to prices, supply, and demand for many commodities. The selected mineral supply/demand tables and flow diagrams comprise but one "output" from the massive body of "information and data collected and com-piled by the Bureau of Mines on a continuing basis covering mineral production consumption, prices, shipments, imports, exports, and stocks, as well as industry activities in all States and abroad.

Jan 1, 1975

By Charles L. Kimbell

In overall aggregate, the world's mineral industry in 1987 experienced a more satisfactory year than in 1986, at least insofar as its performance could be assessed from traditional statistical indicators. Production, trade and consumption seemingly advanced in the case of the majority of commodities, and prices for a number of commodities advanced. It was by no means certain, however, whether 1987 investment in mineral industry ventures would top the levels of 1986, when, in the case of petroleum industry investment expenditures there had been a sharp decline, this in contrast to evidences of a slight upturn in steel industry investment. World crude mineral output value was estimated at more than $1,084 billion, and the value added by minerals industry processing of this material probably raised the total value of the industry's production from primary materials to more than $2,600 billion constant 1983 dollars. Less easy too assess was the value of mineral commodities moving in international trade, but with a resurgence in oil prices from the 1986 levels, an increase above the 1986 $500 billion mark seemed assured. There are no comprehensive aggregate statistics on mineral consumption comparable to those on production and trade, but quantitative growth recorded for most major commodities suggested a favorable trend, particularly when coupled with a general (though by no means universal) upturn in unit prices.

Jan 1, 1989

By Charles L. Kimbell

Virtually every available measure of total world mineral industry activity demonstrated that 1982 was little, if any, better for the industry than 1981 had been. Levels of production, trade, and consumption for virtually every major commodity declined; unit prices for most commodities fell, particularly in terms of constant dollars, and as a result of cutbacks in output and lower prices, capital available for investment within the industry was reduced. These conditions, coupled with the existence of considerable idle capacity, tended to retard investment, although there was an upturn in U.S. oil industry investment overseas. Despite the overall depressed situation of the world's mineral industry, there were indications of possible improvements in market economy countries near yearend, as output of some materials increased marginally and as prices for some mineral commodities reversed their downward trends. The downturns in total world mineral industry activity were not universal from the viewpoint of individual countries. Indeed, output of a number of commodities increased in centrally planned economy countries, and these gains were insufficient to offset declines in market economy countries, thereby sharply altering the proportion of total world output accounted for by each of these two groups of countries. There was a similar shift in consumption on a percentage basis.

Jan 1, 1984

By Charles L. Kimbell

The year 1979 was a period of increased activity for the world's mineral industry, distinctly in contrast with 1978 when estimated world crude mineral output value declined slightly and most phases of the industry's activity were somewhat curtailed. In 1979, most major mineral commodities recorded significant gains in output, with a substantial number achieving new record highs; details on trade levels for 1979 were not available, but increases over those of 1978 were expected on the basis of partial data. Consumption of most commodities edged higher; in some cases the higher demand levels were met largely through draw-downs of stocks accumulated in recent years, while in other cases notable output increases were required to meet demand. Actually, 1978 was not a bad year for all elements of the mineral industry if changes in output levels of the various commodities are considered as a measure of performance. There were far more individual commodities registering production increases between 1977 and 1978 than registered declines, but some of those reported as declining were relatively major commodities (bauxite, aluminum, copper and zinc were notable), Moreover, the upturn in productive activity in 1978 was not matched by increases in profits. However, 1979 was unquestionably a year of renewed expansion efforts, although some commodity areas, most notably the steel industry component, were still experiencing difficulties.

Jan 1, 1981

By Charles L. Kimbell

On the basis of world production data alone, 1985 appears to have been a year in which the world's mineral industry took another step upward in its recovery from the very poor years of 1981, 1982, and early 1983. Despite a drop in the output of crude oil, which was the single most significant crude mineral product from the viewpoint of value, the estimated value of world crude mineral production advanced by 3.4% to about $1,054 billion constant 1983 dollars, with output increases logged for nearly two-thirds of the commodities and forms of commodities for which the U.S. Bureau of Mines calculates a total world output. However, the economic well-being of any industry or group of industries cannot be measured solely in terms of the volume and/or value of its production, and examination of statistics reflecting other aspects of mineral industry performance shows that 1985 was a less than ideal year in many respects. In the case of consumption of mineral commodities, although there were gains registered in diverse sectors such as iron and steel, aluminum, fertilizer materials, solid fuels, and gaseous fuels, there were also proportionally small but notable declines in use among the older major nonferrous metals (copper, lead, tin, and zinc) and in the all-important liquid fuels. In the case of international trade in mineral commodities, although comprehensive data for 1985 were not yet available, there were indications that the value may well have fallen below the estimated 1984 level of $632 billion, although the volume may have increased slightly. This, if true, would be chiefly the result of declining prices of mineral commodities, and indeed, price declines were noted for a number of significant materials in terms of current dollars, and even more would register declines if calculated on the basis of constant dollars, adjusting for inflation.

Jan 1, 1987

By Charles L. Kimbell

The year 1977 generally was a year of growth in overall world mineral industry activity, although there were downturns in major elements of the world's iron and steel industries. The sharp upturns in market economy nation activities that were noted in 1976, following the reduced performance levels of 1975, were moderated, and in the centrally planned economy nations, overall mineral industry activity apparently continued to increase, but at a pace in keeping with that of 1916 rather than at the higher rates of the earlier 1976's. Noteworthy during the year, if only in a negative sense, was the inability of world powers to reach any significant agreement on issues relating to deep seabed mining. Interest from a commercial viewpoint centered around deposits or so-called manganese nodules. These materials, which indeed are chiefly manganese in terms of their content on a quantitative basis, really were of commercial interest primarily far their copper, nickel, and cobalt content. Participants at the Third United Nations Law of the Sea Conference looked into seabed mining rights, but reached no mutually agreeable decisions.

Jan 1, 1981

By Charles L. Kimbell

The year 1980 on the whole was not a good year for the world's mineral industry. The general upturn of activities in 1979 after a rather poor 1978 showing was not maintained with a number of key measurement standards showing downturns. Most notably, the world's steel and petroleum industries recorded significant reductions in output, the former in response to markedly lower demand levels and the latter partly in response to lower industrial consumption owing to general economic conditions and partly owing to successes in campaigns for the reduction of energy use in general and petroleum product use in particular among major importing nations that were feeling the trade balance pinch of ever-higher oil prices. During 1980, a number of political events-some international in scope, some confined to single nations-had significant influence upon world mineral industry activities and mineral commodity supplies, and other political happenings had the potential to significantly affect the industry in future times.

Jan 1, 1982

By Charles L. Kimbell

Although virtually every available indicator of world mineral industry activity demonstrated a gain in 1983 relative to the 2 very poor years of 1981 and 1982, the overall prospects for future years seemed far from bright. There were significant upturns in the quantity and value of mineral commodities produced, traded, and consumed in 1983, and many nonfuel mineral prices advanced, although the price advances in current dollars in most instances barely compensated for inflation. The pattern of investment in exploration and development of new mining ventures and new plant construction reflected virtual industry-wide concern that substantial upturns in demand for mineral commodities in the near future were unlikely, at least for most large volume products. The world oil glut continued despite cutbacks in production, and substantial stocks of many other mineral commodities mitigated against growth in total productive capacity, at least among market economy nations. In these countries, development activity at both mines and plants was confined largely to programs aimed at substituting new, more efficient installations for old, uneconomic or marginally economic plants. Among the centrally planned economy countries, the pattern was somewhat different on the whole, but even there, growth in total productive capacity was evidently somewhat restrained, although it seemed questionable whether the restraint was a function of intentional planning or simply an inability to accomplish planned programs on schedule. International political events, particularly the Iran-Iraq war and the unstable situation in the eastern Mediterranean countries (Lebanon, Israel, and Syria), continued to adversely affect mineral industry activities in those areas. Similarly, the internal and international conflicts in Central America negatively influenced mineral industry operations there. In Afghanistan, it appeared that there was some upturn in the very modest mineral industry operations, but industry activities there undoubtedly continued to be affected by confrontations between the Soviets and the local citizenry.

Jan 1, 1985

By Charles L. Kimbell

For the world mineral industry as a whole, the year 1981 was a period of continuation and, in some instances, an acceleration of negative trends extending back into 1980. Most available statistical data reflected stagnation or downturns in activity. Levels of production, trade, and consumption declined for a substantial number of leading mineral commodities, including, most notably, steel and petroleum. Investment, if not lower than in 1980, was evidently increasing at a more modest rate. Prices for major mineral commodities were generally lower, at least in terms of constant dollars, and in some cases even in terms of current dollars. Prospects of a major reversal of these patterns seemed dim. The mineral industry, however, was far from alone in this general downturn; most other elements of the national economies of the world's nations fared little better. General conditions of inflation, recession, and reduced industrial product consumption were reflected in most other sectors of the total economy. International political events continued to influence mineral output and flow but had less influence on overall levels of activities than on the geographic distribution of these activities. The Iran-Iraq war certainly played a role in reducing mineral industry activities in those nations, but the commodity most affected, petroleum, was available from other sources in sufficient quantity that, in the face of reduced demand, a substantial surplus developed.

Jan 1, 1983