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By C. Erichsen, J. Werfling

ABSTRACT: A three-dimensional elastic constitutive model for rock salt is proposed. This stress strain law takes into account the three phases of creep (transient, steady state and accelerated creep), dilatancy, as well as the failure and post failure behaviour. The model was implemented into a finite element program and validated on the results of laboratory tests and in situ measurements. A good qualitative and quantitative agreement with the test and measurement results is achieved. A stability analysis for an underground repository in rock salt is presented. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG: Es wird ein dreidimensionales elastisch-viskoplastisches Stoffgesetz für Steinsalz vorgestellt. Mit diesem Stoffgesetz können die drei Kriechphasen (primäres, sekundäres und tertiäres Kriechen), Dilatanz sowie das Bruch- und Nachbruchverhalten erfaßt werden. Dieses Modell wurde in ein Rechenprogramm, das auf der Methode der finiten Elemente basiert, implementiert und an Ergebnissen von Laborversuchen und in-situ-Messungen validiert. Die Versuchs- und Meßergebnisse lassen sich mit diesem Stoffgesetz qualitativ und quantitativ gut nachvollziehen. Als Anwendungsbeispiel wird der Standsicherheitsnachweis für eine Untertagedeponie im Steinsalz erläutert. RÉSUMÉ: Cet article présente un modéle constitutive élastique/viscoplastique à trois dimensions pour sel gemme. Ce modéle comprend les trois stade de fluage (fluage primaire, secondaire et tertiaire), la dilatation, le comportement de défaillance et d'après défaillance. Il est implanté dans un programme de calcul aux éléments finis. À l'aide des essais laboratoire et des mésures in situ, le modéle a été validé. Les résultats des essais et des mesures concordent qualitatifs et quantitatifs aux résultats des calculations.

Jan 1, 2003

By Ryan C. Linthicum

A system of steel sheeting and multiple levels of high capacity double corrosion protected soil anchors were used to restrain a major slope failure that occurred at the base of the Watchung Mountains mid-way through construction of a 650,000 SF retail center along Route 22 in Watchung, New Jersey. The implementation of a design-build earth retaining structure was necessary to stabilize and repair the disturbed mountainside in a timely fashion to permit completion of the retail center on a fast track schedule. The tied back steel sheetpile wall was approximately 2,000 feet long and varied in height from 12 to 25 feet. The hillside extended approximately 350 feet above and 600 feet beyond the wall with the main failure scarp extending 50 feet above and 90 feet beyond. The wall was constructed in a top-down manner and required the installation of 475 anchors to resist loads of up to 70 kips/ft produced by the creeping hillside and groundwater flows from both a series of springs and steady state seepage through an inclined zone of fine sand. Incorporation of a unique tie point connection eliminated the need for a waler, facilitating and simplifying modifications to anchor locations based on anchor load test results and conditions encountered during construction. Post grouting also proved to be an essential element in the successful construction. This paper presents the design and the construction methods used to restrain the significant earth lateral loads produced by a slope failure using steel sheeting tied back with high capacity soil anchors with anchor loads distributed to the sheeting through a unique tie point connection on a fast track schedule. Installation techniques, testing programs, and construction quality control are also discussed.

Jan 1, 2003

By J. Werfling, J. R. Kiehl

SUMMARY: The effects of blasting on structures are assessed on the basis of the maximum amplitudes of the occuring vibration velocities. If the standard values in the German Standard DIN 4150 are not exceeded, damages to structures are not to be expected. The estimation of the maximum vibration amplitudes is usually based on experience or on emperical formulae. However, a comparison of expected with measured values shows that these estimations are not conservative, particulary in case of small distances between blasting locations and structures. More reliable predictions are possible on the basis of numerical analyses, which simulate the three-dimensional propagation of waves with consideration of the geomechanical and geometrical conditions. In addition to the expected velocities, these analyses also allow the determination of stresses resulting from dynamic loading. If the dynamic stresses are known, the effects of blasting on structures can be predicted. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG: Die Auswirkungen sprengbedingter Erschütterungen auf bauliche Anlagen werden in der Praxis auf der Grundlage der Maximalamplituden der auftretenden Schwinggeschwindigkeiten beurteilt. In der DIN 4150 werden Anhaltswerte angegeben, bei deren Einhaltung Schäden von Gebäuden nicht zu erwarten sind. Die Abschätzung dieser Schwing-geschwindigkeiten erfolgt meist auf der Grundlage von Erfahrungswerten oder empirischer Formeln. Der Vergleich der prognostizierten Werte mit Meßergebnissen zeigt jedoch, daß diese Ansätze insbesondere dann, wenn die Abstände zwischen den Sprengorten und den Gebäuden gering sind, nicht konservativ sind. Zuverlässigere Prognosen sind auf der Grundlage von numerischen Berechnungen möglich, in denen die räumliche Ausbreitung von Erschütterungen unter Berücksichtigung der geomechanischen und geometrischen Verhältnisse simuliert wird. Mit derartigen Berechnungen können die zu erwartenden Schwinggeschwindigkeiten und die aus der dynamischen Beanspruchung resultierenden Spannungen ermittelt werden. Dies ermöglicht Aussagen über die Auswirkungen sprengbedingter Erschütterungen auf Bauwerke. RÉSUMÉ: Les conséquences de vibrations résultantes d'explosions pour des bâtiments sont estimés dans la pratique à partir des amplitudes maximales des vitesses d'oscillation. Dans la norme allemande DIN 4150 des valeurs d'orientation sont données, avec l'observation desquelles de dommage à des bâtiments n'est pas à présumer. Ces vitesses d'oscillation sont estimés généralement à partir de valeurs d'expérience ou de formules empiriques. La comparaison des valeurs prédits avec des résultats de mesures montre cependant que ces hypothèses ne sont pas conservateurs, en particulier si les distances entre les lieux de sautage et les bâtiments sont petites. Des prédictions plus fiables sont possibles à partir de calculs numériques, dans lesquelles la dissipation spatiale de vibrations est simulée en considération de la situation géoméchanique et géométrique. Avec tels calculs les vitesses de vibration à présumer et les contraintes résultantes de l'effort dynamique peuvent être établies. Cela permet de constater sur les conséquences de vibrations résultantes d'explosions pour des bâtiments.

Jan 1, 2003

By Bora Derin

This work deals with the recovery of valuable metals from the ancient copper smelting slags located in Küre-Turkey. In this process, copper and cobalt were recovered in metallic form and/or as their compounds, whereas iron was recovered as magnetic oxide or pigment. Abrasive grit material was produced using reduced final slag. The process stages involved carbothermal reduction in a DC arc furnace, granulation, leaching, chemical precipitation, selective sulfidizing roasting and product preparations. In this paper, the process stages were described as theoretically and experimentally whereas slag and products were characterized in detail.

Jan 1, 2003

By Atsushi Shibayama, Toyohisa Fujita, Wan-Tai Yen, Ke-jun Liu

"In this investigation, a sponge gold sample (99.92% pure) has been leached with ammonium thiosulfate solution. The effects of CuSO4, (NH4)2S2O3, (NH4)2SO4, NH4OH and retention time on the gold leaching % (extraction %) and thiosulfate oxidation % (consumption %) have been studied. The copper ion acts as a catalyst in gold dissolution. On the other hand, it also accelerates oxidation of thiosulfate (consumption). It was found in this study that the best gold extraction condition was obtained at 43.2 ks with 0.8 - 1.0x103 mol/m3 (NH4)2S2O3, 30 mol/m3 CuSO4, 2.0 - 3.0x103 mol/m3 NH4OH, 0.4 - 0.5x103 mol/m3 (NH4)2SO4, pH 10±0.2 and 150 rpm. The thiosulfate oxidation was about 15% of the initial concentration.For gold recovery from the pregnant solution, the trioctylmethyl ammonium chloride (TOMAC) was used in this investigation as an extractant to extract gold from thiosulfate solution without pH and other adjustments. The effects of gold concentration, pH, ammonia, thiosulfate and cupric ionic concentrations, extractant and diluent concentrations and retention time on the gold recovery were investigated. It was found that 180 mol/m3 extractant diluted with n-octant at O/A ratio of 1:1 could extracted the 100% of gold in 0.6 ks from the thiosulfate solution at the optimal leaching conditions. The 100% gold stripping could be achieved with 10% thiourea solution."

Jan 1, 2003

By M. Borowski, N. Szlazak, D. Obracaj

Methods of research and control of the intensity of gas inflow to undersoil layers, after the mines were abandoned are presented in the paper. Gas migration causes them to penetrate to lower storeys of buildings and earthen structures being a menace to people's health and life. The results of measurements of gas concentration in undersoil layers, gas emission to atmosphere and their accumulation in buildings on the territory of closed down mines are presented.

Jan 1, 2003

By Carlos Antonio da Silva

Steel refining reactors based on chemical heating are being used as an alternative to ladle furnaces, They show a high degree of flexibility in respect to heating rate in addition to carrying out refining reactions such as de-S, inclusion removal, alloying etc. IR-UT and CAS-OB are examples of such reactors. Their performance is dependent upon geometrical characteristics as well as operational conditions which determine the flow field inside the vessel. A physical model of the IR-UT process of the Companhia Siderúrgica de Tubarão, steel plant located in Serra, Espirito Santo, Brazil, was developed to assess the features of the flow field and its influence on the metallurgical behavior. Results of the physical model were used to optimize the process parameters in the industrial unit.

Jan 1, 2003

By Jochen Petersen, Harro von Blottnitz

"The landfill disposal of slags is common practice in the metallurgical industry. Chromium may be a minor constituent in many cases. It is present mostly in the form of chromites, which are considered environmentally benign and hence safe for disposal. Wastewaters from metal finishing operations are most commonly treated by reduction and precipitation of dissolved metals, including chromium, by lime addition, and subsequent landfill disposal of the resulting sludge. The metals contained in such sludges are mostly in the form of hydroxides, and as such considered environmentally stable.Thermodynamically, trivalent chromium, which is the predominant form in these waste materials, can be oxidised to the hexavalent form by atmospheric oxygen. Detailed research work on both slags and sludges has shown that a gradual emergence of hexavalent chromium can indeed be observed. The mechanism is governed by close physical contact between chromium oxide (or hydroxide) phases on the one side and calcium oxide (or hydroxide), which is present as flux in slags and residual lime in sludges, on the other. If oxygen can migrate to the points of contact, gradual formation of calcium chromate ensues.Hexavalent chromium is associated with high environmental toxicity, and hence undesirable in landfilled materials. Moisture migrating through landfill deposits can mobilise the highly soluble chromates and thus potentially transport them into natural waterways. Such gradual release from stainless steel and ferrochromium slag deposits has been demonstrated in a column experiment."

Jan 1, 2003

By Dean E. Matthews

The concept of a pile for construction is credited to a Neolithic tribe called the "Swiss Lake Dwellers" who lived in what is now Switzerland about 6,000 years ago. They used piling, not for supporting heavy loads as we do today, but for elevation to protect themselves from wildlife. The Romans often used piles, and built many structures, including buildings, homes, bridges, roads and viaducts on piling. The Romans built the first bridge across the Tiber River in Rome on timber piles in B.C. 1620. Homes in the cities of Venice and Ravenna were built on piles from B.C. 100 to A.D. 400. The Romans also built the first bridge across the Thames River in London in A.D. 60 on timber piling.

Jan 1, 2003

Paper written on project work carried out in partial fulfilment of M.Sc. (Chemical Engineering)degree Identification of non-linear systems can be a daunting task and in the process industries the problem is complicated considerably by the presence of noise from various sources, non-stationarity of the data and intermittence, such as observed in particulate flows. Traditional methods, such as frequency analysis and linear model-ling do not handle these systems well. Similar problems arise with the application of non-linear theory developed over the last few decades, where much of the analysis depends on embedding of the data in a phase space or pseudophase space, since these methods were not originally designed to deal with noisy systems. In contrast, singular spectrum analysis is a method which can be used to identify structure and distinguish noise from important information in multivariate data, such as the trajectory matrices of time series measurements. It provides an orthogonal basis onto which the data can be transformed, so that components of the time series can be investigated individually. With Monte Carlo methods, the components can be compared with those from linear surrogate data in order to identify possibly non-linearities in the data. In this paper, this versatile technique is briefly explained and illustrated by means of case studies.

Jan 1, 2003

By A. Roper

Since the Toronto conference in May 2002, the International Council on Mining and Minerals (ICMM) has made progress on the road to sustainability. Fifteen of the world?s largest mining and metal producing companies and twenty-five associations have made a long term commitment to ICMM to improve the environmental and social sustainability of their activities. Sir Robert Wilson (Rio Tinto) assumed the chairmanship of ICMM in October 2002. By December 2002, the Council had approved a Strategic Vision and an operating plan for 2003. Both have been posted on the ICMM website (www.icmm.com). ICMM?s Operating Plan sets out three priority tasks: - Providing strategic leadership to achieve improved sustainable development performance in the mining, minerals and metals industry. - Contributing to international policy discussions on cross-cutting issues of importance to the industry, in collaboration with national and commodity associations. - Promoting dialogue and partnership with other organizations to catalyze sector?wide sustainability initiatives.

Jan 1, 2003

By J Miedecke

A metalliferous mine has operated at Storys Creek from the 1890s to 1979. Storys Creek drains from a pristine catchment and National Park and remains as the most degraded stream from historic mining in north-eastern Tasmania. It has been the subject of public concern since the closure, particularly at times of high rainfall such as existed in 1985 and 1986. The mine is located on the banks of the creek, which flows into a major river, the South Esk River, which is one of TasmaniaÆs largest rivers and important for recreational fishing and water supplies. For much of the life of the of the operations tailings were directly discharged into the creek, and in latter years stockpiled or very close to it. Little rehabilitation was carried out at mine closure. The result was erosion and subsequent deposition on the banks of the creek downstream. Direct emissions of adit water and the consequential emission of contaminated ground water to the creek continue to affect water quality. Contaminant loads discharging from the mine and tailings comprise 70% of the metal load in the catchment and are by far the largest single source. Acidity data suggested that the introduction of systems to introduce alkalinity could be effective in ameliorating the residual acid drainage impacts in the Storys Creek catchment. After a period of investigations and trials which proved their effectiveness, treatments adopted have included the following: relocation of tailings to a constructed and clay capped disposal area and rehabilitation of tailings area; crushed limestone addition to stream flows; crushed limestone addition to creek banks and exposed tailings; sealing of a drainage Adit; and construction of an anoxic drain to generate alkalinity to surface waters draining to old mine workings. These innovative treatments have resulted in a marked improvement in water quality draining from the area. The anoxic drain is believed to be one of the few, if any, which has been constructed to have generated high levels of alkalinity from clean waters and offers a solution to the clogging problems experienced in such drains in the past. Similarly, the use of crushed limestone in an active stream has proved effective in buffering acid drainage and removing metals from solution.

Jan 1, 2003

By J P. Jona, S R. Poulson, C H. Gammons

Spatial and temporal trends in water chemistry in the acidic (pH ~2.6) Berkeley Pit lake, Butte, Montana, can be explained by a newly developed iron-cycling model. Key elements of this model include: subaqueous oxidation of pyrite and other metal sulfide minerals by dissolved ferric iron, producing Fe2+ as a by-product; re-oxidation of Fe2+ to Fe3+ in the epilimnion, assisted by A ferrooxidans; precipitation of secondary ferric minerals (schwertmannite, jarosite) in the epilimnion; and replenishment of the Fe3+ concentration of the hypolimnion by seasonal lake turnover and gravitational settling and re-dissolution of ferric precipitates. Pyrite oxidation rates were approximated by using published rate laws and information on the Fe3+ concentrations (~5 mmol) of the Berkeley Pit as a function of depth. The results indicate that subaqueous pyrite oxidation may be releasing as little as 6 + 106 or as much as 600 + 106 moles of H+ each year to the lake; the large range reflects uncertainty in calculation of the specific surface area of pyrite in the flooded pit. This helps to explain the observation that the pH and metal concentrations of the Berkeley Pit have not improved with time since mine flooding began in 1983. Vertical cycling of ferric iron in the pit lake permits pyrite oxidation to continue in deep water, even in the absence of dissolved oxygen. This hypothesis is supported by preliminary stable-isotope data.

Jan 1, 2003

By V. Labiouse, M. Jaboyedoff

GIS documents are of great interest for a quick and low-cost determination of areas endangered by rockfalls. They allow (i) the detection of potential instabilities from steep slopes and cliff areas, and (ii) the preliminary estimation of potential run-out areas by means of a so-called cone method. After the presentation of the tools used to compute these areas, the paper focuses on two methods developed for a preliminary hazard mapping, one at regional scale and the other at local scale. Mittels GIS-Dokumenten können von Steinschlag bedrohte Gebiete schnell und kostengünstig ermittelt werden. Die sogenannte Kegelmethode erlaubt die Erkennung potentiell instabiler Zonen von Steilhängen und Felswänden sowie eine erste Einschätzung der möglichen Reichweiten. Nach der Vorstellung der zur Berechnung der bedrohten Gebiete benötigten Hilfsmittel stellt der Artikel zwei Methoden zur vorläufigen Gefahrenkartierung in lokalem und regionalem Maßstab vor. Les SIG sont très intéressants pour une détermination rapide et peu onéreuse des zones affectées par des chutes de blocs. Ils permettent une détection des zones potentiellement instables et une estimation sommaire des zones de propagation des blocs par une méthode dite des cônes. Après la description des outils utilisés pour définir ces zones, l’article expose deux méthodologies élaborées pour un zonage préliminaire du danger, l’une à l’échelle régionale et l’autre à l’échelle locale.

Jan 1, 2003

By S. Read, G. Cook

The Hoek-Brown failure criterion is often applied to a wider range of rocks than the isotropic rock masses to which it is strictly applicable. This paper evaluates the patterns of defects in rock masses using spherical projection contour plots of samples of randomly-generated orientations and datasets from mapping of New Zealand closely-jointed greywacke rock masses. Two indices from the contour plots - the area within the 1% contour (A1%) and maximum concentration (Cmax) are introduced for distinguishing uniform (isotropic), random or regular defect patterns. The indices provide a potential extension to current guidelines on the use of the Hoek-Brown failure criterion. The paper also outlines kinematic checks to assess the influence of defect clusters on rock mass strength. Das Hoek-Brown Bruchkriterium, das strikte nur fuer isotrope Gefuege gilt, findet oft einen viel weiteren Anwendungsbereich. Diese Arbeit bewertet diverse Dispersionsmuster der Defekte einer Gesteinsmasse. Wir vergleichen in sphaerischer Projektion (1) Beispiele zufaelliger Orientierung von Defekten und (2) Felddaten ueber neuseelaendisache engstaendig geklueftete Grauwacken. Die Projektionen werden durch die Indices A1% (Flaechenanteil des 1%-Bereichs) and Cmax (Hoechstkonzentration) gekennzeichnet, welche isotrope, zufaellige und regulaere Muster unterscheiden und die aktuellen Richtlinien zum Hoek-Brown Kriterium ergaenzen. Wir testen ferner Defektgruppen der Gesteine kinematisch auf ihren Einfluss auf Massenfestigkeit. Le critère de rupture de Hoek-Brown est souvent utilisé sur une variété de roches plus étendue que les masses rocheuses auxquelles il est strictement applicable. Ce travail évalue la distribution des défauts au sein d'une masse rocheuse en utilisant une projection sphérique des contours d'échantillons d'orientations générées aléatoirement et de données de cartographie provenant de greywackes à joints rapprochés de Nouvelle Zélande. Deux indices de cette projection - la zone des contours en dessous de 1 % (A1%) et celle de concentration maximum (Cmax) sont introduites pour distinguer les répartitions uniformes (isotropes), aléatoires ou régulières. Ces indices fournissent une extension potentielle aux règles d'utilisation du critère de rupture de Hoek-Brown. Ce travail utilisent également les contrôles cinématiques pour évaluer l'influence des groupes de défauts sur la résistance de la masse rocheuse.

Jan 1, 2003

The introduction and subsequent ascendancy of autogenous and semi-autogenous milling for comminution circuits has undoubtedly lead to many economic advantages. From a process viewpoint, however, at least one downside has been the sensitivity of these machines to process input variations. Foremost among these is ore competence, though feed size comes a close second. This sensitivity is due to the reliance of ag/sag mills on the feed ore for their grinding media competence and size. Autogenous (ag) mills are the most sensitive in this respect with semi-autogenous (sag) mills being increasingly less so as the ball charge is increased. Increasingly designers and operators are recognising the importance of feed size and the benefits of manipulating it to improve performance. This has been achieved by installing additional crushing/screening capacity ahead of the ag/sag, better operation of the primary crusher, better control of segregation cased by stockpiles and bins and by changing blast design/practices to modify the ROM size distribution. This paper describes the influence of feed size distribution on ag/sag mill performance with reference to a range of plant data. It particularly concentrates on how changing blasting practice to modify ag/sag feed size can have a considerable overall benefit.

Jan 1, 2003

By Trevor R. Ellis

"The valuation of mineral properties in the U.S. is only partially regulated. The regulations which have jurisdiction or impact appear to have such mainly as a consequence of unintended fallout, since the regulations were designed for other purposes. Court case history can also be important. The combined results are a mixture of bad and good, with important lessons to be learned.Since 1981, the Securities and Exchange Commission has prohibited U.S. listed companies from reporting quantitative estimates of mineralization and the value of mineralization, other than proven and probable reserves. This results in the minerals appraiser (valuator) working with a shortage of data in his everyday work, both on the subject property and in sales analysis.Between 1989 and 1995, all 50 states and essentially all Federal agencies adopted the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) for real property appraisals (valuations). The major national appraisal societies also require their members to abide by USPAP. A significant portion of minerals appraisals must now follow these standards. This paper will discuss the content of USPAP. It provides a very good framework for the valuation of a minerals property or a mine, both as real property and as a business. However, the credentialing standards for real property appraisers are now prohibitive for minerals appraisers."

Jan 1, 2003

By M. T. Spyridopolous, S. J. Neethling

"There has been a significant research interest in the stability of single thin films, including prediction of their failure based on disjoining pressure and film thickness experiments and DLVO theory. It is, however, notoriously difficult to correlate information on the failure of a single thin film with measurements of foam stability. This is particularly true for the prediction of dynamic foam stability indicators, such as equilibrium froth height and surface bubble size.An alternative experimental approach to studying single thin film failure for predicting foam stability is to measure directly the coalescence probability between two approaching bubbles in a surfactant solution. These experiments can be performed under different chemical and physical conditions by using a micromanipulator that allows variation of bubble size, surfactant concentration, approach velocity and stationary position. The interface radius of curvature, the time to coalescence and the film area between the bubbles can be measured directly using image analysis.In a foam, the force exerted on the thin film separating two bubbles depends on the local radius of curvature of the Plateau borders and vertices, which depends in turn on the local liquid content. Results from different bubble sizes in the micromanipulator therefore translate into regions of different liquid content in the foam. Small bubbles, having a high radius of curvature correspond to the low-liquid content (Polyhederschaum) region higher in the foam, and large bubbles to the wetter (Kugelschaum) region closer to the liquid-foam interface. Experiments with different holding distances between the bubbles correspond to differences in bubble size in the foam, as the size of the film between the bubbles varies."

Jan 1, 2003

By P. Schutte

It is evident from most admired companies, globally, that they drive key priorities such as teamwork, customer focus, fair treatment of employees, initiative and innovation into their organisations. It is clearly proofed in all the research that the role of the human factor, and therefore human behaviour, is pivotal to companies striving to accomplish goals such as competitiveness, customer delight, high quality, growing productivity as well as a safety-committed work force. The challenge of leadership is to change the worker’s poor perception of safety to an excited, empowered, valued employee who is continuously committed to the achievement of high levels of health, safety and conformance – the challenge therefore is to transform from within. Any work force needs a set of behavioural rules which work for it – including safety rules and critical safety behaviours, which are accepted through involvement leadership, encouragement and support.

Jan 1, 2003

By F. R. Camisani-Calzolari

Surface defects on continuously cast slabs require treatment by grinding. This extra phase in the process causes lower throughput of final product and extra energy costs. The elimination of slab treatment after casting implies that slabs can be direct rolled or hot charged, resulting in higher throughput and lower energy costs. To increase the number of slabs that can be direct rolled or hot charged, defects have to be predicted before a slab has completed the casting process. Transversal and longitudinal cracking, casting powder entrapment and other inclusions, bleeders, deep and uneven oscillation marks, stop marks and depressions are the defects thatare considered for prediction. A structure with two models is proposed. The first model describes the effect of mould level, water inlet temperature and casting speed (MV?manipulated variables) on 38 thermocouple temperatures (IV?intermediate variable). Casting speed is a manipulated variable while mould level and water inlet temperature are treated as measured disturbances. This model is known as the MV to IV model, and is used to control the occurrence of defects. The second model describes the effect of the thermocouple temperatures on the defects at different positions and locations on the slabs (OV?output variables). This model is known as the IV to OV model and is the predictor of defects. The models are determined using time-series methods in the form of auto regression with exogenous input using data of approximately 500 slabs cast over a period of 6 months. The models are validated using plant data from 44 slabs gathered three years later, with good results. As an example, published results give a sensitivity and specificity of 61.5 per cent and 75 per cent respectively for longitudinal cracks on validation data, while the presented method gives 63.6 per cent and 93.5 percent, respectively. The IV to OV model is used in an inversion to determine the optimal thermocouple temperatures for each slab width. Keywords: Continuous casting, model, defect, prediction, direct rolling, hot charging, goodness-of-fit, correlation, time-series, soft sensor, ARX.

Jan 1, 2003