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By A Vakili, F Harvey, H Greaves

Mine seismicity is one of the most difficult geotechnical risks to manage in seismically active mines. There are currently some established empirical and statistical methods that provide quantitative measures for seismic hazard assessment in operating mines. However, these methods are mostly suitable for quantifying the current or historical seismic hazard and often cannot be directly used to forecast the future hazards. Numerical modelling is the only analytical tool that can capture the level of complexities required for a meaningful analysis of mine seismicity and therefore to facilitate a reliable forecast of future hazards. However, there is currently no widely accepted and established guideline and methodology for analysing and forecasting mine seismicity using numerical modelling. This paper first provides a background on previous published studies on this subject and then outlines the key aspects that can affect the reliability of the forecasting for mine seismicity. These aspects include a) processing of historical seismic data, b) selection of suitable numerical modelling approach, c) Post-processing and interpretation of the model outputs. A case study is then presented for the Gwalia Deeps Mine where a new framework was developed to forecast future mine seismicity. High-quality seismic data for a period of five years was used for back-analysis and comparisons with the numerical modelling outputs. After development of the method, the future seismicity was forecast for the next 12 months and the actual seismicity was monitored against the forecast during this period. Results of this study shows promising potential for the proposed framework to be applied more routinely and at other mine sites. However, more validations are required at Gwalia Deeps mine as the mine proceeds to deeper levels. In addition, the method needs more improvements and should be tested and validated at other mining operations before it can be established as a proven method. CITATION:Vakili, A, Harvey, F and Greaves, H, 2018. Forecasting mine seismicity – towards a more established methodology, in Proceedings The Fourth Australasian Ground Control in Mining Conference (AusRock), pp 207–222 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Nov 30, 2018

By J. Cygankiewicz

Efficient prevention of mine fires is impossible without predicting the self heating processes in the given geological and mining conditions. The respective forecasting method is presented in this paper based on the following assumptions: - factor deciding on fire hazard in the underground workings is the process of heating of coal from the primary rock temperature to the critical temperature when the heating rate growth rapidly - another important factor is the fire incubation time defined as time needed to achieve the critical temperature. This time is determined by balance of heat and mass in the heated coal - contact of crushed coal with oxygen in air cause some exothermic processes as : physical and chemical sorption of oxygen , oxidation reaction and evaporation of humidity Heated coal transfers its thermal energy to the environment by conductivity to the rocks and by convection to the flowing gases. The heating is possible if thermal energy generated from coal is greater then the share transferred to the environment. The paper presents the laboratory method of measurement of heat generation in adiabatic conditions. Also the mathematical model with examples of computation enabling to forecast the self heating process of crushed coal is presented.

Jan 1, 2003

By A. McQuillan, N. Bar

Geotechnical engineers are routinely tasked with advising suitable stand-off distances below highrisk sections of slopes in open-pit mines that are identified to have potential to deform or collapse. Accurate prediction of failed material runout can mean the difference between continuous safe mining and unwanted high-potential incidents that result in loss of production, equipment damage, injury, or loss of life. This paper updates previous empirical relationships presented by the authors for estimating the volume and runout distance of excavated slope failures, in an open-pit mine operation, using slope geometry as the primary predictor. Cases are sourced from varying slope geometries (fall heights up to 385 m, slope angles up to 80°) and a range of commodities (iron ore, coal, nickel, gold, copper, boron, and limestone), excavated in sedimentary, banded-sedimentary, epithermal, and copper-porphyry deposits, across all six inhabited continents. Analysis of these cases identified positive correlations between slope height and runout distance, and slope height and failed material volume. In general, negative correlations were identified between Fahrböschung angle and slope height, and Fahrböschung angle and failed material volume; however, significant scatter is observed in these datasets. A definitive relationship could not be derived comparing Fahrböschung angle with failed material runout. Slope angle was also found to be a poor indicator of runout. Of the parameters analysed, slope height (i.e., fall height) was found to be the simplest and best predictor of runout distance. This paper presents new charts for predicting failed material runout distance for rock slopes. Relationships are defined for structurally and rock-mass driven slope failure mechanisms at average, 75%, and 95% prediction intervals

Jul 10, 2024

By P. M. Solozhenkin, O. I. Ibragimova, I. P. Solozhenkin

Molecular models of complexes of poorly studied bismuth, gold, and arsenic mineral clusters and reagents were created for use in collector activity forecasting using Chem Bio 3D and ChemOffice2005, with optimization by MM2. The density functional theory approach was used to determine HOMO, LUMO, SOMO, and total energies, atomic charges, and s, p, d- populations for various compounds. The structure-based virtual screening (SBVS) and docking technique was proposed to reduce the vast number of compounds to a more manageable number for selection of potential flotation candidates. The prognosis of collector activity evaluation (PCAE) strategy was proposed as a consistent approach to estimate the interaction between a collector and a mineral cluster as the difference between the total energy and sum of cluster energy and collector energy to search the analogue of butyl xanthate. The negative relationship between PCAE and flotability was shown. The combinations of dialkylamino sulfhydryl collectors can be considered as prospective reagents for gold-bearing sulfide ore flotation. These results were confirmed by experimental data in ore flotation. The increase in recovery of gold and bismuth with the aid of a combination of reagents has been established and additional cyanidation of tailings has been avoided.

Jan 1, 2016

By Nick D. Rose

Outline ?Background ?History of inverse-velocity for failure prediction ?Methodolog ?Case Histories ?Three case examples of predicted slopefailure to actual date of occurrence ?One case example of mitigated slope failure using inverse-velocity to forecast failure time and schedule remedial measures ?Conclusions

May 1, 2006

By John L. Edwards, Anthony T. Iannacchione

There has been a persistent need to forecast roof falls so that miner’s exposure to hazardous underground environments can be minimized. Several monitoring techniques have been developed and are used today with varying levels of acceptance in the mining industry. This paper examines the potential for monitoring microseismic emissions activity as a means of forecasting roof falls. The use of this activity to forecast roof falls has drawn only limited attention, resulting in a lack of published field performance data. This deficiency is being partially addressed by analyzing data obtained during longwall mining at Moonee Colliery in 1998. The Moonee data base contains a wealth of information concerning roof fall forecast parameters and the seismic alarm criteria used to develop these forecasts. Four seismic alarm criteria were developed and used by Moonee with varying degrees of success. Roof falls were forecasted 73% of the time with average forecast times of 54 minutes. Ninety percent of the predicted roof falls had a warning time, i.e., the time between warning and roof fall event, of greater than 1 minute. The fraction of forecasted roof falls decayed logarithmically as a function of warning time, until only 20% of events were predicted more than 100 minutes prior to roof falls. False alarms occurred in 50% of the warnings. Many of the false alarms were quickly followed by a cessation in mining which could have temporarily halted the on-going failure process. If mining had continued immediately after the false alarms, a roof fall may have occurred soon after. The microseismic activity collected from Moonee Colliery demonstrates that techniques to forecast roof rock instabilities in underground mines are possible.

By S. Avalos, J. M. Ortiz, W. Kracht

Semi-autogenous grinding mills are intensive energy consumers. Current models base their energy consumption inference on operational variables and feeding ore characterization. While they provide adequate design guidelines, they are not suitable for real-time energy forecasting dealing with gaps in operational dataset and up/downstream process bottlenecks. This work explores the capability of Gated Recurrent Units to learn the semi-autogenous grinding mill consumption behaviour. Gated Recurrent Units are trained to forecast different time-support consumptions under a time-series operational dataset. The results show high performance on small supports (30 minutes) to capture local variability and long-trends while larger time supports (8 hours) can only capture time-trends but not local variability. The proposed technique seems promising for further research and implementation on real mine cases since the input variables are low-cost and easy to obtain. INTRODUCTION Current changes in the Chilean energy matrix (Román-Collado, Ordoñez, & Mundaca, 2018), from fossil fuels to renewable energies, have impacted different industries and particularly the mining sector. Solar energy incorporation into greenfield/brownfield projects will help reducing costs and will lead to rethink foundational paradigms (production and processing strategies) (Pamparana et al., 2017). Also, integration of new space-time predicting tools together with automated real-time updating models are some of the main challenges in the geometallurgical framework (Ortiz et al., 2015; van den Boogaart & Tolosana-Delgado, 2018). Those contexts encourage and demand the development of tools capable of predicting the energy consumed by mining systems, being comminution the greatest energy consumer with an average close to 50% of the entire mine consumption (Cochilco, 2013). In comminution, the semi-autogenous grinding mill (SAG) represents the largest energy consumer (~10 nominal each SAG). Theoretical and empirical energy consumption models (Jnr & Morrell, 1995; Morrell, 2004; Silva & Casali, 2015) base their inferences mainly on feed/product size distributions, SAG sizing, bearing pressure, feed hardness, water addition and grinding charge level, and commonly assume steady-state and work isolated from up and downstream processes. While those techniques provide adequate design guidelines, they are not suitable to predict hourly, daily or even weekly energy consumptions on interconnected comminution circuits where upstream/downstream bottlenecks lead SAGs to operate below designed regimes. Forecasting energy consumption is required by short-term energy management, medium and long-term planning energy consumption, designing the nominal capacity of renewable energy sources, among other. Also, when models are input-sensitive and some of those input measurements are expensive and/or time consuming, model robustness suffers when real-time predictions are required.

Jan 1, 2019

By James R. Evans

Forecasting demand is an art as well as a science, and much personal judgment is required. National forecasts made for sand and gravel, crushed stone, and/or aggregate may be misleading or unhelpful locally. This is because of significant variation in demand within different geographic and/or political areas in the United States, and/or the use of an inadequate data base and forecasting methodology. The best forecasts may be made for local or regional market areas, irrespective of geographic or political boundaries, provided a proper data base is available. The Bureau of Mines compiles detailed statistics on commodities sold or used in the construction industries and, therefore, is in an advantageous position to make national aggregate demand forecasts.

Jan 1, 1978

By S. K. Oraee

Most management decisions at all levels of the organization are as directly or indirectly depends on the circumstance of future. With regard to predict the future events in the process of decision-making plays a main role, therefore, forecasting is very important for every organizations and institutions. There is a variety of methods to predict time series. In general, these techniques can be divided as following: statistical, artificial intelligence and analytical techniques. Two of the most common methods for time series prediction is autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN) methods, these methods are the subset of statistical and artificial intelligence techniques respectively. In this paper, a hybrid model of ARIMA and ANN models are employed to predict the number of fatal injuries in the USA underground coal mines. This research showed the result of hybrid model is better than split model.

Jan 1, 2011

By Y Zhang

Being analysed systematically, the factors influencing the production of fully-mechanised coal face have been divided into geological, mining technical, and management groups. Artificial neural network-expert systems (ANN-ES) are established to decide the influencing factorsÆ membership grade; genetic algorithm-artificial neural network (GA-ANN) are used to decide the weights; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to calculate the integration indexes. Finally, the GA-ANN model is established to forecast the production of fullymechanised coal face. It is proved that the model is reliable with higher precision. The production of fully-mechanised coal face is influenced by many factors. However, some influencing factors are neglected by the traditional forecasting methods, the results of which are not precise and hardly be used as a guide for mine production and management. The relation between the production of fully-mechanised coal face and its effecting factors is analysed, and the meta-synthetic AI approaches are used to forecast the production of fully-mechanised coal face.

Jan 1, 2003

By J. E. Russell

The purpose of this paper is to describe an independent study which forecasts Texas coal production, specifically for electric power generation. This study, extending to the year 2000, is justified on the following basis. Texas produces and consumes considerably more electric energy than any other state, has consistently high growth rates in the population and industrial sectors, and has large lignite reserves. Also, since recent forecasts have been criticized as overly optimistic, this study is timely when considering the long lead times required in obtaining new power sources. In the study demand for electric energy was assumed to rest on two dominant factors: 1) overall state of the Texas economy as measured by the Texas Gross State Product (TGSP) and 2) Texas population. Demand models were prepared and tested following a study of several options. A final linear regression demand model with time lags for the two variables was chosen on the basis of good correlations. On the supply side, uncertainties such as impact of nuclear sources, gas-fired cogeneration, and ratio of imported to lignite coal exist. These uncertainties were studied with high and low cases for effects on lignite. Finally a simple supply model was chosen. Results of the study indicate that lignite production in Texas will rise from the current (1984) 40 million tons per year (XTPY) to the range of 77 to 124 MTPY and more probably 100 HTPY in the year 2000.

Jan 1, 1984

By Steve Kral

Competition from foreign coal producers could displace as much as 9 Mt/a (10 million stpy) of US coal bound for power plants located near waterways. But, according to a Maryland-based coal consultant, it could be worse. Theoretically, about 52 Mt (57 million st) of domestic coal could be vulnerable to imports by 1990, said Forrest Hill, of Hill & Associates of Annapolis. Hill was speaking to about 150 coal industry executives and experts at the third annual Coal Marketing Strategies Conference in November. Most were at the Denver, CO conference to pick up tips on how to sell coal in an oversupplied market. Imports threaten domestic markets Of the 200 utilities studied by Hill and his staff, 119 are situated near major waterways, he said. However, most of those waterways are not equipped to handle coal from the shipping lanes. Good news for US coal producers. But don't breathe too easily. Foreign coal still poses a major threat to domestic markets, Hill continued. The strength of the US dollar is an obvious factor. But easy access to US utilities located on waterways combined with low rates for ocean vessels give foreign producers another edge. And foreign mines are typically low cost producers. For example, Hill said Colombia's huge Cerrejon mine can deliver coal to an Illinois power plant for $47.87/t ($43.39 per st). That compares to $52.85/t ($47.95 per st) from a Kentucky coal mine. Also, Colombian coal producers can generate a cash flow even if the coal sells for $27.50/t ($25 per st). The main competition US producers face from abroad, as Hill sees it, comes from Australia, Canada, Colombia, Poland, South Africa, and, perhaps, from Venezuela. Domestic producers, however, do have some things going for them. Most US coal buyers, Hill said, "are not wild about the idea of buying foreign coal." A 10% price advantage or pressure from public utility commissions would be needed to force some of them to buy foreign coal, he said. Some of the utilities contacted said they would not commit to more than one-third of their stockpiles to a foreign source. Another advantage for US producers is that they have room in their long-term contracts to cut prices and still maintain a profit, Hill said. Railroads, too, have high profit margins written into their rate structures. They are also aware of the import threat. Therefore, they may reduce their rates accordingly to keep their markets. Marketing's role The energy price shocks of 1972 and 1976 caused major adjustments in world economics. Coal was no exception. High oil prices caused many utilities to look at less expensive coal. As the market improved, coal prices began to respond, said R. Gale Daniel, of Anaconda Minerals Co. But clean air legislation and the strengthening dollar caused havoc in the coal markets, he said. The price of oil crashed, taking with it predictions of record coal use. The result is an oversupply of coal that has led to price cutting. Now, coal marketing must be recognized in its "true leadership role," Daniel said. Marketing people must know when to use spot sales to balance production objectives and maintain cost-effective-

Jan 1, 1986

There were two official representatives of Foreign Governments as guests at the Chicago Meeting. One was Frederick Goransson, managing director of the Saudvikens Steel Works, who represented the Jernkonteret, the Iron and Steel In-stitute of Sweden, and who came to this country especially for our meeting. The other distinguished guest was Commander Toublet, who repre-sented the French Embassy. Commander Toublet delivered a most polished address at the Banquet, dealing with the felicitous relations existing between this country and France for the last 150 years. Com-mander Toublet was accompanied by Mrs. Toublet, who won the hearts of all the ladies present, whose guest she was.

Jan 11, 1919

The theme of this conference is æRediscover OtagoÆ. In order to ensure the development and exploitation of mineral discoveries in New Zealand, considerable capital will be required, particularly from overseas. This paper briefly reviews the Government's foreign investment policies and procedures and highlights some trends.

Jan 1, 1992

By G. C. Bateman

Canada is a very large country with a small population which is growing very slowly. We have great natural resources, but with our limited population we are continually looking afield for new capital to develop these resources. Our mining areas are among the most important fields offering opportunities for new capital and because of the wide-spread appeal which mining makes this industry commands a great deal of attention. While we are glad to see new capital from any source, we welcome it particularly from Great Britain, for, although we offer equal opportunities to the nationals of any country we would be glad to see the development of our natural resources financed as far as possible within the Empire. However, when we invite ne capital we must accept certain responsibilities, and while we have opportunities to offer, we should ask ourselves how these opportunities are taken advantage of and what sort of treatment the foreign investor receives.

Jan 1, 1925

By Wm. A. Haven

ON the northern part of the globe, almost since the earliest days of mankind's history. ironmaking has been practiced in one form or another. Some investigators question the generally accepted belief that copper and bronze were in earlier general use than iron, explaining the greater age and abundance of copper relics by their greater resistance to natural oxidation. However, the occurrence of copper in its natural state and its greater ease of reduction from the simpler copper minerals is a strong argument that the making and use of copper came first. Nevertheless, good evidence exists that ironmaking was practiced in ancient India and China, as well as in ancient European countries. Some interesting vestiges of those early operations still survive and have a place, in the background at least, of a discussion of modern blast-furnace practice.

Jan 1, 1940

By Charles Hart

A STUDY of the various ores that have been discussed impresses one with the need of beneficiation, in many cases. This applies to the ores that have lain dormant, due to necessity for further preparation, or to ores that now find a market due to a changed condition. Processes of beneficiation will come into their own as our richer ores become exhausted. Many efforts at improvement have been commercial failures, due to prematurity. Thomas A. Edison, with characteristic foresight, attempted concentration of the low- grade New Jersey magnetites some thirty years ago. Due to high costs and the discovery of the Mesabi range, his efforts were futile. However, a successful crusher, designed by Mr. Edison, resulted from this attempt. Agglomeration of concentrates had not, at that time, been brought to its present efficiency, when sinters and briquettes of excellent physical condition are obtainable. Recent efforts in the beneficiation of the lean magnetites of the East Mesabi resulted in an excellent sinter, but that operation is also ahead of its time.

Jan 1, 1929

By Samuel Lasky

WITH the movement of American capital into foreign investment, a new field of specialization for the American mining engineer is gradually opening a field hitherto entered almost wholly by chance and without full appreciation of its possibilities. Our age has been fitly called the "Age of Specialization." The special application of one's knowledge and ability to a definite and restricted branch of .his profession is purely a modern condition. Any profession, or branch of a profession or, industry, in which the problems may be segregated into definite types, calls for specializa-tion. Modern industry demands efficiency and that, reduction and ultimate annihilation of waste. Effort and time wasted by workers' on a problem with which they are not familiar is as flagrant a waste of money -the final standard-as any waste of materials. One of the subdivisions of mining engineering which is beginning to be recognized is of engineers who are clearly conversant with the particular and peculiar problems obtaining under foreign operating conditions. The need is as yet obscured, however, by the domestic prosperity of our American mining industry. The opportunity here lies more with the American engineer than with other nationals. The foreign en-gineer now in that service is not there through a realiza-tion of the special opportunities that exist, but through necessity, whereas, with the American engineer, more especially ,the recent graduate or those who will soon graduate, this is a new field to be entered wholly by choice. As a matter of fact, many engineering students will find it necessary to seek foreign service if they wish to remain in mining. Although the scope of the domes-tic industry is tremendous and there are many positions open to the junior engineer, there are not enough for the great number of graduates turned out yearly from our, mining schools. Educators tell us that less than 40 per cent. of the students in engineering schools gradu-ate; and of these but a minority continue in engineering. Even this minority is too great for our domestic. In-dustry, and although the young engineer realizes that condition after a few years he rarely seeks foreign work. A. perusal of the directory of the American Institute of Mining Engineers indicates that, but about one-half of one per cent of the Junior Associates are in positions outside of North America. Granting that most of them are still in school, the figure is surpris-ingly small.

Jan 1, 1927

The difficulty of finding new ore bodies, the complexities of patenting them when they are found, and the absence of incentive legislation for exploration have limited mining exploration in the United States mostly to the big companies. This situation, coupled with ECA spending abroad, has caused American capital to look outside our national boundaries for investment opportunities which are further made attractive by some relaxing of restrictions to gain American dollars and patronage.

Jan 1, 1950

By Evan Just

THE high standards of living and improved national security that industrialization can bring are so evident that no country can be named that does not cherish the hope of industrializing. With such a universal aim, why do many countries unable to develop their own industries accomplish so little toward attracting the foreign private investor, who alone can provide them with the necessary capital and skill? Obviously, because they fail to under- stand what constitutes a favorable climate for investment, because they have false notions about being exploited or dominated by the foreign investor, or because they are so nationalistic they refuse to permit outside assistance. The purpose of this paper is to aid the citizens and policy makers of developing countries in achieving their aims, by defining the conditions which en- courage investment and portraying the results of a policy of encouragement. The following is quoted from Eugene R. Black, president of the World Bank:

Jan 6, 1957