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By R. H. Matjie, J. R. Bunt, A. C. Collins, J. C. van Dyk, C. A. Strydom

South African discard coal fines and K₂CO₃ blends were heated in a laboratory-scale rotary kiln to produce ashes for H₂SO₄ leaching tests. The optimized H₂SO₄ leaching conditions of 6.12 mol.dm³ (M) H₂SO₄, solid to liquid ratios 1:5 and 1:10, and 80°C for 8 hours were used. K₂CO₃ was added to increase the dissolution efficiency of K. The objective was to determine if the Al present in metakaolinite (Al₂O₃.2SiO₂), the Al, K, and Ti in the alumino-silicate glasses, and the Ti in rutile (TiO₂) in the ashes could be selectively dissolved in H₂SO₄. XRF results show that the ashes formed at 700°C dissolved more efficiently (87% Al, 89% K and 23% Ti) compared to the ashes formed at 1050°C. This can be attributed to the presence of Al₂O₃.2SiO₂, K₂CO₃ melt, K₂CO₃ remnants, KAl(SO₄)₂, and K-aluminosilicate glass in these ashes. XRD results indicate that the ashes prepared at 1050°C contained anorthite (CaAl₂Si₂O₈), microcline (KAlSi₃O₈), pseudomullite (Al₂O₃.SiO₂), and silicon spinel (2Al₂O₃.3SiO₂), which are either insoluble or only sparingly soluble in H₂SO₄. These minerals resulted in the lower dissolution efficiencies of Al and K. Based on the high dissolution efficiencies of Al and K for the ashes produced at 700°C, coal fines blended with K₂CO₃ could possibly be utilized as feedstocks for the production of aluminium(III), potassium(I), and titanium(IV) and a sulphate-containing leach liquor. Furthermore, the environmental issues and costs associated with the handling and disposal of large volumes of coal fines will also be resolved.

Aug 2, 2022

By C. W. P. Finn

On 14th April, 1980, 76 delegates from industry, universities, and research laboratories gathered at the University of the Witwatersrand to attend the Pyrometallurgy Vacation School. Professor H. B. Bell, Chairman of the Department of Metallurgy at the University of Strathclyde, Scotland, was there to lead the School, along with 12 local lecturers, who had gathered at the Hotel Devonshire at 07h30 for an Authors' Breakfast. Analytical chemistry Euroanalysis IV will be held in the town of Espoo, approximately 9 km from the centre of Helsinki, from Sunday, August 23rd, to Friday, August 28th, 1981.

Jan 1, 1980

By E. Van Der Lingen, A. Paton

"The South African ferrochrome industry has been faced with various challenges during the past few years, such as influences from the market, manpower strikes, China’s control over the demand for both ferrochrome and chrome ore from South Africa, and electricity supply constraints, placing increased pressure on the local industry to improve output in order to remain globally competitive. The year 2016 brought a dramatic change in the local ferrochrome industry, being marked by higher chrome ore prices and the takeover of some idle smelters.This study investigates the methods of technology acquisition used in various parts of the ferrochrome smelter value chain throughout a business cycle, and whether there is a preference for a specific acquisition in an explicit part of the value chain. The study also considers whether companies prefer to partner with local or global institutions for collaborative development, and the methods used by companies to protect their technologies.IntroductionSouth Africa holds the world’s largest chrome ore reserves and was the world’s largest producer of ferrochrome until 2012, when China became the leading ferrochromeproducing country. South Africa’s chrome ore (chromite) supply into the Chinese market has risen significantly from 36% of China’s total chrome ore imports in 2010 to more than 70% in 2016 (Fowkes, 2014; Creamer, 2017). China controls the demand for both ferrochrome and chrome ore from South Africa (Fowkes, 2014). China’s high import rate of chrome ore has resulted in ferrochrome prices being driven down and a depressed ferrochrome market. The South African industry meets the chrome ore demands but loses out on ferrochrome beneficiation.Furthermore, the local ferrochrome industry has been threatened with the overall poor competitiveness over the past few years, resulting in four of the eight producers ceasing operations at the beginning of 2016. Challenges experienced by the producers, some of which are directly linked to production costs, include influences from the market, productivity that was affected by wildcat strikes, China’s control over the demand for both ferrochrome and chrome ore, and electricity supply issues (Fowkes, 2014, 2013; Biermann, Cromarty, and Dawson, 2012). Ferrochrome production is energy-intensive and South African producers have faced higher electricity costs, electricity supply complications, and a weaker currency exchange rate since 2009."

Oct 1, 2018

By L. Aspola

The platinum group metals (PGMs), i.e. ruthenium, rhodium, palladium, osmium, iridium, and platinum, are typically found in association with each other, but also importantly, with nickel and copper. Typically Platinum and palladium have the greatest economic significance and other PGMs are typically produced as co-products of these. With recent increases in the value of nickel, cobalt, and the PGMs and an ever increasing focus on the sustainable use of metals, interest in the processing of secondary feed material sources and metal-bearing residues has also substantially increased. As an efficient, proven, and environmentally sound technology Outotec Ausmelt Top Submerged Lance (TSL) Technology has gained commercial acceptance in the nickel industry, including PGM recovery. For the processing of nickel- and PGM-bearing feed materials, five Outotec Ausmelt Furnaces at four sites are in operation. Two of these furnaces are located in Rustenburg, South Africa, which is by far the biggest mine-based producer of platinum. Outotec also has hydrometallurgical processes available for further treatment and extraction of PGMs, which are also briefly discussed.

Jan 1, 2012

By P. L. Ngwenyama, I. Maubane

Soundless chemical demolition agents (SCDAs) are proving to be the future of sustainable and environmental-friendly mining. These expansive chemicals become critical when there is a need to break rock close to communities, environmentally sensitive areas, and critical structures and infrastructure. Unlike explosives, the SCDAs do not generate air-blast, ground vibrations, flyrock, noise, dust, and noxious fumes, which can negatively affect the environment, surrounding communities, sensitive areas, and critical structures and infrastructure. Over the years, several types of SCDA products have been used successfully in the civil and construction industries for the demolition of old and dilapidated buildings near vibrations and environmentally sensitive areas. They have also been used to fragment boulders in the mining and construction industries. However, to date, no study has investigated the applications of soundless chemical demolition on a large-scale in opencast mines. Therefore, this study evaluated whether soundless chemical demolition can break large volumes of in situ rock. This was done by conducting five trials using Nex-Pand soundless chemical demolition agents in four different surface mining sites. Trial 1 was unsuccessful as it was unable to break the rock due to the large confinement between the drilled holes and the use of a hole diameter that was 182% larger than recommended. Trial 2 was a success as it was able to fracture the rock with a crack width that reached 110 mm after 72 hours. Trial 3 generated cracks at the biggest hole diameter of 102 mm. The cracks developed and ceased to increase after 96 hours at a crack width of 100 mm. Trial 4 achieved the smallest crack width due to a very competent rock compared to the other sites. Trial 5 generated cracks at a slower rate than other trials because of the use of Nex-Pand powder at lower ambient temperatures than recommended. These trials proved that soundless chemical demolition agents can replace explosives in areas closer to sensitive infrastructure and communities. This will ultimately enable mines to unlock value and access deposits in these areas.

Jul 23, 2025

By F. Dutoy, M. B. Stella, C. F. Carrozza

Rare earth elements (REEs) are indispensable components in the manufacturing of high-tech devices, renewable energy technologies, and defence applications. As global demand for these elements continues to rise, there is a pressing need to optimize extraction processes for both efficiency and environmental sustainability. This study explores approaches to rare earth extraction using Ionquest® 801 and integrates a predictive modelling to enhance process understanding and optimization. We conducted a screening test varying pH process to evaluate the best extraction efficiency. Starting pregnant leach solution (PLS), solution was prepared in the lab with the following rare earth elements: La, Ce, Gd, Dy, and Υ, at 0.02 M for each element. The data obtained were used to develop empirical and mechanistic models to predict rare earth extraction yields and flowsheet. Further tests were performed by mixing specific concentrations of different extractant and/or phase modifier. Our experimental results demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposedextraction methods, highlighting improvements in both yield and selectivity. The developedmodels successfully captured the complex relationships between process parameters and extraction efficiency, providing valuable insights for process optimization.

Nov 6, 2024

By S. Chatterjee, F. Suparno, A. Paithankar

Estimating reserves and quantifying resources stand as pivotal and intricate endeavours within the realm of coal mining operations. Intricate geological formations compound the challenges in resource estimation, thereby complicating reserve calculations. The uncertainties tied to geological attributes of coal, encompassing parameters like tonnage and coal quality, wield significant sway over resource and reserve computations within coal mines. This research delves into the domain of geological uncertainties, with a specific focus on calorific value, aiming to numerically characterise resources and reserves within an open-pit coal mine situated in Indonesia. To quantify resources, the coal seam geometry underwent simulation via a multipoint geostatistical technique known as single normal equation simulation. A geologically established coal seam served as the training image for generating 20 equiprobable coal models. To simulate CV, 50 realisations were generated for each simulated coal seam, utilising sequential Gaussian simulation. Deviations of the simulated coal seams ranged from -0.07% to 5.48% in comparison to the training image. The CV simulation yielded an average value of 5,920.29 kcal/kg, accompanied by a standard deviation of 586.54 kcal/kg. However, the average CV spanned from 5,305.26 kcal/kg to 6,526.55 kcal/kg across diverse simulations. For reserve calculation within the context of geological uncertainties, an algorithm rooted in maximum flow graph theory was employed to construct the ultimate pit for the coal mine. Within this final pit, the average stripping ratio was 1.62, coupled with a CV value of 6,019.66 kcal/kg. When juxtaposed with the deterministic model, the findings underscore that the stochastic ultimate pit delineates a more expansive excavation, accompanied by a heightened undiscounted cash flow.

Oct 2, 2025

By A. P. I. Popoola, D. O. Okanigbe

Copper smelter dust (CSD) is a byproduct of copper smelting and is composed of considerable amounts of copper values and also contaminants (like silica and mullite). Silica in CSD forms Siloxane, a low density material, which is difficult to separate from the aqueous phase during solvent extraction. The need therefore arises to reduce/remove the aluminosilicates for better grade and recovery of copper in subsequent processes. This paper reports the use of two types of centrifugal gravity concentrators, namely Knelson (KGC) and Falcon (FGC), for upgrade of copper in CSD. The aim was achieved by an initial characterisation (Particle Size Distribution (PSD) and mineralogical analysis), together with Density Separation (DS) experimentation, premised on a hypothetical density difference between copper oxide and silicon/aluminum oxide. Wet screening results showed that 88.52 % of CSD particles were in -53 μm fraction. Further PSD study using laser diffraction showed the -53 μm fraction to be composed mainly of 26 μm, 22 μm and 18.5 μm fractions. Mineralogical analysis showed copper to occur mainly as oxides (24.34 wt%), but also as sulphides (7.95 wt%), and a substantial amount of aluminosilicates (42.97 wt%) were identified. Density of CSD was determined as 2.83 g/cm3. Copper content (18.02 wt%) in CSD was upgraded to 35.94 wt% in concentrate using KGC. In conclusion, the results showed good convergence between hypothesis and experiment. Additionally, it was also concluded that KGC performed better than FGC for copper upgrade in CSD. However, roasting CSD prior density separation was recommended for enhanced copper upgrade. Keywords: Copper smelter dust, density separation, solvent extraction, mineralogy

Jan 1, 2020

By P. Ramsaywok, S Ndanduleni, G. Legodi

The objective of this paper is to share the optimisation journey of a pilot Reflux classifier (RC) circuit in the Exxaro GG1 plant, at Grootegeluk beneficiation complex in Lephalale, South Africa. The RC circuit was commissioned in 2016 to produce semi-soft coking coal at its fines circuit; however the stability of operation as well as the quality control of the coal product was not fully achieved. Various test campaigns and optimisation studies were conducted to understand and optimise the RC circuit at GG1. The studies revealed circuit design inefficiencies; provided an improved technical understanding of the current pilot circuit and the parameters required for the circuit to reach a stable operation. The operation was stabilised with its current inefficiencies to produce an average 12.5% ash semi-soft coking coal product for sustained periods, above the initial target of 10.3% ash. Keywords: Reflux classifier, coal

Jan 1, 2020

1. New books P. Sarnoff. Trading in gold. Cambridge, Woodhead- Faulkner, 1980. 136 pp. £3.50 by airmail. Environmental Planning Professions Interdisciplinary Committee (EPPIC). Proceedings: Joint EPPIC/Habitat Symposium: Shaping Our Environment. Johannesburg, EPPIC (P.O. Box 61019, Marshalltown 2107), 1980. R3 per set of 2 issues. H. P. Patra and K. Mallick. Time-varying geoelectric sounding. Amsterdam, Elsevier, 1980. 420 pp. D.S. $87.75. Die Suid-AfrikaanseSteenkoolverwerkingsvereniging. Steenkoolvoorbereidingskursus. J ohannes burg, die Vereniging, 1930. 335 pp. Members of Chamber of Mines of South Africa R15, nonmembers R40. D. R. Derry. A concise world atlas of geology and mineral deposits. London, Mining Journal Books, 1980. HO pp. £26.25 byairmail. 2. Journal Remote sensing of environment (RSE). 3. NIM reports Report No. 2064 The on-line monitoring of gold in barren solutions. Report No. 2065 The determination, by X-ray-fluorescence spectrometry, of gold, silver, and base metals on activated carbon. Report No. 2068 The determination of platinum, palladiuim, rhodium, and gold in ores and concentrates by the fusion technique with lead as the collector. Report 2061 The determination, by anodic-stripping voltammetry, of copper and lead in silicate reference materials. Report 2062 The reduction by computer of photoplate data obtained by spark-source mass spectrornetry. Report 2071 The determination, by X-ray-fluorescence spectrometry, of tin and tungsten in scheelite and ca8siterite ores and concentrates. Tunnelling Tunnelling '82, the third international symposium in the series, is being organized by the Institution of Mining and Metallurgy, with the co-operation of the British Tunnelling Society, the Institution of Mining Engineers, and the Transport and Road Research Laboratory.

Jan 1, 1980

1. New publications International minerals/metals review - 1982. Washington D.C., McGraw-Hill, 1983.720 pp. U.S.$1l7. Mining subsidence engineering, by Helmut Kratzsch. New York, Springer, 1983.580 pp. U.S. $63,20. Papers presented at the 6th International Symposium on Jet Cutting Technology, Guildford, England: April 6-8, 1982, edited by H. S. Step hens and E. B. Davies. Cranfield (England), BHRA Fluid Engineering, 1982. £40. 2. Mintek reports Report M95 Modern applications of polarography and voltammetry to inorganic analysis. Report M96 The mathematical modelling of the reduction behaviour of chromite from the Upper Chromitite Layer of the Bushveld Complex. Report M113 The selective flotation of South African chromite. Conference on copper The International Conference 'Copper 83', to be held in London on 1st and 2nd November, 1983, will provide a valuable forum for all connected with the manufacture and use of copper. Underwater mining The 14th Underwater Mining Institute will be held in Madison, Wisconsin, on 7th and 8th November, 1983. Asian mining The Institution of Mining and Metallurgy, in conjunction with the Chamber of Mines of the Philippines, will hold an international conference, Asian Mining '84, in Manila, Philippines, from 6th to 8th November, 1984. Apcom '84 The Eighteenth International Symposium on the Application of Computers and Mathematics in the Minerals Industries will be held in London in the week 26th to 30th March, 1984. The Symposium is being Jet cutting Another Symposium on the very successful and popular series of international conferences on Jet Cutting Technology is being arranged by BHRA.

Jan 1, 1983

By J. Sjöberg, T. Savilahti, S. B. Umar

"Sublevel caving in Malmberget mine results in mining-induced surface deformation. One of the currently mined orebodies is the Printzsköld orebody. As mining deepens there is need to assess the behaviour of the cave formed in the subsurface above this orebody. Numerical analysis was used to assess the effects of extraction to deeper levels and perform strength parametric studies. Stress redistribution was studied, and the results showed high stress buildups in the hangingwall and the crown pillar. Two failure mechanisms have been identified – shear and tensile. Reducing cohesion by 50% increased the area of the yielded zone by more than 100% in the hangingwall.IntroductionThe Malmberget mine is owned and operated by the Luossavaara-Kiirunavaara AB (LKAB) mining company. Iron ore is extracted by large-scale sublevel caving. The mine comprises a total of 20 orebodies, about 10 of which are in production today (Figure 1). The mine is located in the municipality of Gallivare, about 100 km north of the Arctic Circle (Figure 2).Successful sublevel caving requires progressive caving of the orebody after initial blasting. This results in caving of the hangingwall, sometimes all the way to surface, resulting in surface deformation. As mining progresses to deeper levels a larger area is affected by deformation. Over the years, extraction from the Malmberget orebodies has led to deformation of the ground surface, affecting residential areas and existing infrastructure.Forecasting the caving process is not straightforward as it can be rapid or slow, depending on the rock mass conditions, stress conditions, the failure mechanisms at work, etc. Moreover, several of the orebodies in Malmberget are non-daylighting, which makes reliable caving analysis even more difficult, primarily since there is less available experience from such cases. The present study was designed to improve the understanding of the caving and deformation mechanisms at Malmberget, and in particularly for the Printzskold orebody"

Jan 1, 2017

By R. Rumpold

The platinum group metals (PGMs) palladium, platinum, and rhodium represent the key materials for automotive exhaust gas treatment. Since there are currently no adequate alternatives, the importance of these metals for the automotive industry is steadily rising. The high value of PGMs in spent catalysts justifies their recycling. The state-of the-art technology is to melt the ceramic carrier and collect the precious fraction in a liquid metal bath. As the feed material has quite high melting points, huge amounts of energy are required for this process. Hydrometallurgical treatments of the spent catalysts offer the possibility to recycle the PGMs with less energy and time demands. Moreover, automotive catalysts contain further valuable materials to improve the exhaust gas treatment. These compounds, like cerium oxide, cannot be recovered in pyrometallurgical processes. This paper deals with a special process that uses hydrometallurgical principles to recycle the valuable metal fraction from spent automotive catalytic converters. Hydrochloric acid in combination with hydrogen peroxide is used as leaching agent. This combination selectively dissolves the PGMs and the cerium, which can be recovered in separate steps. As the leaching solution is regenerated and reused, wastewater generation is minimized. Furthermore, the process residues constitute potential byproducts.

Jan 1, 2012

By B. M. Thethwayo

Graphite blocks are currently used in the concentrate - slag zone in primary PGM smelters, and can possibly be extended to the matte zone. This project evaluates the interaction between synthetic matte and graphite blocks on a laboratory scale. Static crucible tests were performed where graphite crucibles (prepared from standard and high-grade graphite) were filled with synthetic matte (27.7 per cent S ? 46.1 per cent Fe ? 17.0 per cent Ni ? 9.2 per cent Cu) and heated to 1550°C for different time periods (1?5 days). Matte penetration was evaluated using a SEM, while graphite dissolution was evaluated by measuring the carbon content of the matte with a LECO carbon analyser. Matte penetrated into standard grade graphite up to approximately 2 mm, while matte infiltration into the high grade graphite was limited to the immediate hot face. The saturation solubility of graphite in the synthetic matte at 1550°C was 0.43 per cent. Copper, iron, nickel, and sulphur were detected in an accretion that formed in the water-cooled part of the furnace. This accretion consists of mainly Cu-S and Cu-Fe-S based phases.

Jan 1, 2012

By L. Scott, M. A. Goncalves

Effective communication is a sought-after non-technical skill in the health, safety, and environmental (HSE) function and is fundamental in achieving an organization’s safety objectives. While different channels are used to communicate HSE matters, many organizations employ posters, videos, and/ or signs containing images to convey information. Communication through signage and graphical hazard symbols has been regulated in standards, but vast sections of HSE communication are bespoke communications and exist outside the sphere of standards. Effective HSE communication through images requires an understanding of the organizational culture in which the images will be used, as well as an understanding of the semiotics of the images themselves. Creative interpretation within HSE communication can create situations where the message that was received is not the message that was intended, leading to confusion and misinterpretation. This paper is aimed at elucidating the semiotics of South African HSE visual content. It was found that the indexical mode of images was most preferred in visual communication, and text-only designs the least preferred. Senders and receivers of messages differ in their opinions on the complexity of HSE communication.

Feb 2, 2021

By O. Koatlhai

Mine closures have traditionally prioritised environmental rehabilitation, often overlooking the deep socio-economic disruptions that follow, particularly in mining-dependent communities. This paper argues that mine closure should not mark the end of prosperity but rather the beginning of a sustainable transition. The coproduction model, which integrates community participation, governance, and economic planning, offers a transformative approach to closure planning. Drawing on case studies from Ghana, Zambia, and Indonesia, this research examines the successes and failures of past closures, highlighting the critical role of stakeholder engagement, skills development, and economic diversification. By incorporating emerging technologies such as AI-driven economic forecasting, blockchain for governance transparency, and decentralised finance (DeFi) models, mining companies can ensure a just and sustainable post-mining future. This study challenges outdated closure models and presents a forward-looking strategy that sees mine closure not as an endpoint, but as a catalyst for social resilience and economic transformation. It underscores the need for policy reforms, stronger governance, and investment in alternative industries to prevent mining towns from becoming economic wastelands. By shifting the paradigm from remediation to regeneration, this research calls for a new era of mine closure planning that puts people and prosperity at its core.

Apr 25, 2025

By A. Pareek, V. S. Masampally, V. Runkana

Mineral processing plants, in general, consist of comminution and separation circuits. Rougher flotation is considered as the heart of the separation circuit with concentrate grade and mineral recovery being the key productivity and quality parameters that affect the downstream operations and profitability. Online prediction of these parameters can help improve process performance in real-time. Past efforts to predict flotation cell performance have focused on building physics-based or machinelearning (ML) based models. Although physics-based models are popular in process design applications, ML models are more appropriate for online monitoring, control and optimisation due to their lower computational requirements. Deep learning (DL) is gaining prominence nowadays for application in industrial operations where a large amount of data is available. We have developed a DL model based on long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks to forecast the two key performance indicators (KPIs), namely, mineral recovery and concentrate grade in a mineral processing plant. Rougher feed characteristics such as mineral grade and particle size distribution, upstream measurable disturbances such as throughput of the comminution circuit and pulp density, and control variables such as aeration rate, pH, and collector addition rate are considered as explanatory variables to train the model. The model was tested with data from an industrial mineral processing plant. For real-time dynamic predictions, the trained model appropriately accounts for mismatch in measurement frequency of real-time process data and off-line laboratory analysis data. Such a time series model can be used as a state observer in model predictive control techniques for optimal control of unit operations in a mineral processing plant. Keywords: Mineral processing, flotation, time-series, dynamic modelling, deep learning

Jan 1, 2020

By N. C. J. Dempers, J. A. L. Parker, R. A. Wildenboer

More than half of global cobalt reserves are located in the Southern African Copperbelt, stretching over the northern tip of Zambia and southern area of the Democratic Republic of Congo. In these areas, cobalt is not typically produced as a primary product but as a byproduct of copper production. Ores from this region often contain uranium, which is readily leached under typical copper leach conditions and enters the process. Uranium does not pose a challenge to copper production, but it becomes a significant problem when it follows cobalt to the cobalt precipitation process and results in unacceptably high levels of U in the final Co product. This paper evaluates the existing process technologies that can be used to remove uranium from cobalt-bearing process streams, including phosphate precipitation and ion exchange. Advantages and disadvantages of the uranium removal processes are discussed, and important design considerations are highlighted.

Jan 1, 2023

By M. Tangstad, J. D. Steenkamp

In April 2013 a 48 MVA submerged arc furnace producing silicomanganese was excavated in South Africa. Since the high shell temperatures recorded in the tap-hole area resulted in the furnace being switched out for relining, the tap-hole area was excavated systematically. A refractory wear profile of the tap-hole area with affected hearth and sidewall refractory was obtained in elevation. The carbon ramming paste in front of, above, andbelow the tap-hole was worn, as was the SiC with which the tap-hole was built. A clay mushroom formed but was detached from the refractories. Thermodynamic and mass-transfer calculations were conducted to quantify the potential for wear by chemical reaction between refractory and slag and refractory and metal in the tap-hole area. It was found that chemical reaction between refractory and slag or metal could offer only a partial explanation for the wear observed; erosion is expected to contribute significantly to wear.

Jan 1, 2015

By John W. Harbaugh, Alfredo Prelate

The goal of the study described here is to develop objective. quantitative methods for estimating the outcome probabilities of exploratory oil wells. The study employs the 're-experience' approach, in which historical data are used in a manner which attempts to recreate the past. Our past experience, of course, is the principal guide to the future. To appraise present-day oil prospects, however, we must analyze prospects that have been drilled in terms of how these former prospects were interpreted before they were drilled. An analysis of how they are interpreted after they were drilled is an inadequate guide to the future because our hindsight knowledge is superior to our foresight knowledge. Objective calculation of future outcome probabilities, then, requires that we attempt to treat past information in a manner analogous to that in which we must treat present information in forecasting future outcomes.

Jan 1, 2014