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By N. Demirel

Estimating productivity of a walking dragline is of paramount concern to mining engineers and mine planners. Risk based evaluation of the dragline productivity is a valuable tool to estimate the dragline?s long-term performances and availabilities, to develop preventive maintenance plans, and to make future projections about the machine?s performance. This paper aims to provide mining professionals with an overview of risk assessment methodology for productivity of two walking draglines, PAGE 736 and MARION 7820, which have been operating in Tunçbilek open cast coal mine of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) in Turkey. The study encompasses three main stages as: (i) acquiring of monthly maintenance records, operating hours, mechanical and electrical failure hours between 1998 and 2009; (ii) reliability modeling using mean time between failure data; (iii) determining hazard rate and consequences to compute risk associated with dragline productivity. The results showed that that Page 736 (20 yd3) is seemed to be more reliable and less likely to fail when compared with Marion 7820 (40 yd3). The operating hours without failure range from 41 to 51 hours with 50 percent reliability.

Jan 1, 2011

By H. S. Duzgun, N. Demirel

Estimating productivity of a walking dragline is of paramount concern to mining engineers and mine planners. Risk based evaluation of the dragline productivity is a valuable tool to estimate the dragline’s long-term availability, to develop preventive maintenance plans and to make future projections about the dragline’s performance. This paper aims to provide mining professionals with an overview of risk assessment methodology for productivity of two walking draglines, Page 736 and Marion 7820, which have been operating in the Tunçbilek openpit coal mine of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) in Turkey. The study encompasses three main stages: (i) acquiring of monthly maintenance records, operating hours, mechanical and electrical failure hours between 1998 and 2009; (ii) reliability modeling using mean time between failure data and (iii) determining hazard rate and consequences to compute risk associated with dragline productivity. The results showed that that Page 736 (15.29 m3) seemed to be more reliable and less likely to fail when compared with Marion 7820 (30.58 m3). The operating hours without failure range from 41 to 51 hours with 50% reliability.

Jan 1, 2011

International tenders for contract mining opportunities require the Contractor to make an assessment of risk for an operation with a life span of up to twenty-five years usually based on data made available by the Client. This paper seeks to address how the Contractor assesses the data and quantifies the risks associated with the project. The areas of risk are common to most projects, but in the--Lontractor's case, risk assessment is carried out on the Client's data base and within a compressed time frame of usually less than six months. Incorporation of that risk assessment into the contract documentation is also discussed. Practical examples are given in a number of areas.

Jan 1, 1986

By C Smith, R I. Maczkowiack, P D. Erskine

Open cut coal-mining has been conducted in the Bowen Basin region of central Queensland for almost five decades, and has disturbed an estimated area of 140 000 ha of agricultural land until 2011. Approximately one-third of the area disturbed by mining has been rehabilitated to pastures or bushland. However, none of the rehabilitated land has yet been assigned a specific end-use. This research project develops an approach for assessing end-use risks for the regionÆs mined land, and develops risk assessment models for selected end-uses. First, a web-based survey of stakeholders was used to identify risks to be assessed. The risks identified were surface erosion, subsurface erosion, bushfires, weeds and feral animals. The survey also identified possible end-uses of bushland and grazing. Second, conceptual risk models were developed based on the risk assessment concepts of likelihood and consequence specified in the Australian and New Zealand risk assessment standards. Likelihood was modelled using site characteristics and management factors that influence the occurrence probability of risks (eg surface erosion), while consequence was modelled using a set of site condition indicators and condition thresholds (changes in root-zone water-holding capacity, soil erodibility, vegetation ground cover and soil organic matter and transition probability to a non-preferred ecosystem type).The factors influencing likelihood and consequence for each risk have been integrated using Bayesian networks. The next step in model development is to parameterise the Bayesian networks using existing equations, empirical datasets, or expert opinion where data are not available. The parameterised models will be used to assess grazing and bushland end-uses against erosion, bushfire, weed and feral animal risks for rehabilitated mined land sites, with the purpose of identifying the relative risks associated with each end-use, and the landform design specifications and land management practices under which end-use risks are minimised.CITATION:Maczkowiack, R I, Smith, C and Erskine, P D, 2012. Risk assessment models for post-mining land use, in Proceedings Life-of-Mine 2012, pp 33-42 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Jul 10, 2012

By Nilufer Kursunoglu

Despite being crucial for meeting the world’s energy demands, coal mining operations present considerable health risks, especially when it comes to exposure to coal dust. Longwall coal mining, an advanced technique, has considerably enhanced production but made dust control more difficult. Due to its explosive nature, coal dust continues to be a serious and dangerous concern in the industry despite developments in safety technology. This study aims to comprehensively assess the risk of coal dust explosions by integrating fuzzy risk matrix and Pareto analysis methodologies, offering precise risk ratings for various root causes. A fuzzy risk matrix was developed to assign exact risk ratings to identified root causes. Additionally, a Pareto chart was used to identify the main reasons and suggest particular preventive measures. 17 significant causes were determined for underground coal mines based on the study’s methodology, and some preventive measures were suggested. In accordance with fuzzy risk rating values, root causes were divided into six categories. The root hazard with the highest risk rating was identified as ‘accumulation of inflammable gas/gases’. The proposed approach was used to examine incidents caused by coal dust explosions in Turkish coal mines in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of combining the fuzzy risk matrix and Pareto analysis for assessing coal dust explosions. This study gives not only a solid framework for risk assessment but also critical information for classifying the risks associated with coal mine dust explosions. The results highlight the critical necessity for proactive and preventive actions to reduce the hazards of coal dust explosions and protect the safety of mining workers.

Nov 16, 2023

By Michael Samis

The real option valuation method is often presented as an alternative to the conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) approach because it is able to recognize additional project value due to the presence of management flexibility. However, these two valuation methods can be separated on a more fundamental level by their differences in risk discounting. Real option valuation applies the risk-adjustment to the source of uncertainty in the cash flow while the DCF method adjusts for risk at the aggregate level of net cash flow. This seemingly small difference is the reason why the real option method is able to differentiate between projects according to each project?s unique risk characteristics while the conventional DCF approach cannot. This paper provides an overview of the real options and DCF valuation frameworks and discusses the differences in risk discounting that exist between the two methods. Using grade-school mathematics, this paper clearly demonstrates how, with real options, a unique project risk discount can be calculated which is directly linked to the project?s unique risk profile. It also highlights why the DCF method fails in this regard and shows why a call to ?increase the Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate? is an incomplete solution at best. Finally, a heap-leach project and satellite reserve development project are valued with both techniques and the difference in investment conclusions is explained in terms of the risk-discounting concepts discussed here.

May 1, 2003

By Limao Zhang

This paper presents a BIM-based Risk Identification Expert System (B-RIES) for metro construction, composed of three main built-in subsystems: BIM extraction, knowledge base management, and risk identification subsystems. The engineering parameter information related to risk factors is extracted from the BIM of a specific project where the IFC standard plays a bridge role between the BIM data and metro construction safety risks. An integrated knowledge base, consisting of fact base, rule base and case base, is established to systematize the fragmented explicit and tacit knowledge. A hybrid inference approach, with case-based reasoning and rule-based reasoning included, is developed to improve the flexibility and comprehensiveness of the system reasoning capacity. During the safety risk identification process, B-RIES is able to improve the inefficiencies in engineering information extraction, reduce the dependence on domain experts, and facilitate knowledge sharing and communication among dispersed clients and domain experts. A typical safety hazard identification in the Mingdu station, located in the Wuhan Metro Line Two, is presented in a case study. The results demonstrate the feasibility of B-RIES, and its application potential. B-RIES can be used as a decision support tool to provide guidelines for safety management in metro construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment.

Aug 1, 2013

By Edward Holloway

The basis for the selection of the ultimate pit for an open-pit mining operation is generally opaque. Some form of value-based analysis will generally guide the final decision; however, the value will often gradually plateau while the ultimate pit size continues to increase. There is no established framework to guide specialists in the selection of the ultimate pit, with such decisions regularly made on a somewhat arbitrary basis. The key component that is missing from the analyses typically used to select the size of the ultimate pit is risk. Once risk is quantified within the analysis framework, the decision-mak-ing range is significantly reduced and the process for select-ing the ultimate pit becomes more consistent, replicable and defensible. The technique outlined in this paper provides an approach to including risk in the process used to select the ultimate pit.

Jun 1, 2024

By Edward Holloway

The basis for the selection of the ultimate pit for an open pit mining operation is generally opaque. Some form of value-based analysis will generally guide the final decision; however, the value will often gradually plateau whilst the ultimate pit size continues to increase. There is no established framework to guide specialists in the selection of the ultimate pit, with such decisions regularly made on a somewhat arbitrary basis. The key component that is missing from the analyses typically used to select the size of the ultimate pit is risk. Once risk is quantified within the analysis framework, the decision-making range is significantly reduced, and the process for selecting the ultimate pit becomes more consistent, replicable, and defensible. This paper provides an approach to including risk in the process used to select the ultimate pit.

Feb 21, 2024

By Sandy Worden

Coal mining companies in Australia are managing the high-consequence risks across their operations more effectively by using an interactive online risk management system known as Riskgate Developed by the Minerals Industry Safety and Health Centre (MISHC) at the University of Queensland, Australia, Riskgate contains detailed information about 11 high-consequence risk areas (called topics in the system) for opencut and underground coal mines (Table 1). The existing topics are: fires; strata control for underground mining; ground control for opencut mining; tires; isolation; collisions; explosions and explosives; manual tasks; and trips, slips and falls. Every Riskgate topic is focused on coal industry activities (mining, processing, transport and storage). The scope includes mine sites, lease areas and mine infrastructure (mobile, fixed plant, field equipment, buildings, road and rail transport), and all aspects of the mine life cycle from design through to decommissioning. The topics uniformly recognize that a loss of control can result in injury or fatality, equipment damage, production loss, reputation loss and environmental damage. However, the priority focus for Riskgate is the safety of mine personnel.

Jul 1, 2013

By S. E. Younis

The mining industry is currently looking to better understand, anticipate, and be able to mitigate business and operational risks in order to deliver the rewards of risk taking, and to minimize the frequency and impact of risk on the downside. Assessing risk works from the premise that the identification and management of existing risks can be very challenging, especially when threats are not easy to detect, the likelihood of occurrence is difficult to gauge, and/or the consequences are uncertain. Some approach this as a ?check the box? task, even though fire and safety incidents continue to occur and investigations often find the hazard analyses did not properly identify the cause or consequence. You cannot engineer protective designs and safeguards for causes and consequences that have not been identified appropriately. For the mining industry, risk management is an important tool for making critical decisions and, in some cases, meeting regulatory requirements. Providing high-quality documentation that meets both regulatory and corporate requirements is critical for maintaining safe, uninterrupted mining operations. Risk management is a five-part process: 1. Identify the hazards and their causes, 2. Determine the hazard consequences, 3. Calculate the frequency of occurrence, 4. Quantify the risk associated with the system, process, or procedure, and 5. Provide feasible solutions for the risks

Jan 1, 2012

By Emily Rose

The concept of risk management is applied to multiple aspects of the mining lifecycle including safety, mine design, business plan—anything that affects getting the ore to the mill for production. However, risk management is not a topic that can readily be taught in universities. Many situations require knowledge gained from experience to know how this impacts current and future operations. Recent graduates, who must develop and apply decisions based on geotechnical monitoring, likely have not developed “operational experience” and may not be aware of options and typical applications. Thorough resources that explain different monitoring systems, and when and how to implement them, are available for geotechnical professionals. Accessibility to this information can often cause information overload, leaving one unsure of where to start, without knowing where to start. This paper is intended to serve as a high-level overview of development practices, levels of risk, and risk tolerance for entry-level geotechnical and mining professionals who do not come from a geotechnical background. Summarized detail on typical monitoring practices, types of instrumentation, and how to communicate what the data indicates to key stakeholders are provided.

Feb 22, 2026

By A. Moergeli

The Swiss are building the world’s longest tunnel, the 57-Kilometer (35-mile) long Gotthard Base Tunnel. Lot 252, Tunnel Amsteg: Two Hard Rock Tunnel Boring Machines (TBM) crossed hydro-thermally decomposed granite. While the East TBM advanced slowly but steadily, the West one got stuck for five months and had to be recovered by special means and methods. Both TBMs have finished their more than 11-Kilometer (7 miles) long drives successfully. Lot 360, Tunnel Sedrun: For the first time in tunneling, roadway support machines are used through most challenging, squeezing geology. They constantly advance in full face mode for about one Tunnelmeter/24 hours.

Jan 1, 2007

Risk management has taken on renewed vigor since the economic crisis of the late 2000s. The resources of governments, individuals, and corporations are being stretched to a point where only the most promising projects move forward. Risk management is a crucial part of the decision making process, yet it remains a broad term that includes disciplines from engineering to finance. A collaborative effort will be necessary to ensure that the most auspicious and appropriate projects are the ones moving forward. Risk management can be quantified to an extent by comparing the likelihood of an instance with the result of consequence of the instance occurring. In this manner it is possible to assign risk factors to instances and ultimately, begin to associate monetary value to the instance. Carbon sequestration is an emerging field that has a number of unique challenges. Risk management and mitigation must be an integral part of the overall picture. This begins with the planning and design phase, continues through implementation and production, site closure, and does not cease until termination of liability. The ability of carbon sequestration projects to successfully assess, mitigate, and recover from leaks will be a decisive characteristic of overall success. The costs of mitigation and failure will need to be analyzed on a test level, but will still need to be reliable enough to extrapolate to a commercial level operation. This paper will build a risk management profile based on case studies and field tests in Tennessee and Virginia. These tests are scheduled to commence in late 2013 and consist of small-scale injection tests in unconventional storage reservoirs with an emphasis on enhanced coalbed methane (ECBM) recovery and enhanced gas recovery. The ultimate goal will be to provide a clear and concise direction to move carbon sequestration from the test phase to commercial scale. While it is necessary from a risk management perspective to analyze all risk points, the scope of this paper will focus on pre-injection risk assessment for carbon dioxide (CO2) leakage potential. Despite the differences between the two tests, CBM compared to shale among other differences, a framework for analysis and mitigation can be developed pertaining to leakage risk. The probability of each type of failure will be assessed and analyzed, and plans to mitigate or reduce these risks will be reviewed.

Aug 1, 2013

The nature of the specialty glass and ceramic business magnifies the dependency of the ultimate product on the unique properties of their raw materials used to make them. This dependency has implications in the management of risk in the supply process which requires a special procurement organization and program commitment to be successful. The Coming system of managing critical materials and factors in development of alternate new suppliers and products is discussed.

Jan 1, 1989

By Rob Herr, Irwan Halim, Heather Marsh

This project will expand sanitary sewer within the City of Columbus. It consists of 2.5 mile long, 72-inch finished diameter pipe grouted inside 10.8-foot diameter tunnel excavation in shale. This paper describes the multi-faceted geotechnical exploration to minimize the underground risks. The tunnel will cross below a buried valley with minimum cover of highly weathered rock. The risk mitigation to cross the valley includes contingencies and cost allowances. Provisions to prevent impact on adjacent groundwater resources will be described. Latest construction updates will be provided including contractor alternate shaft support and pre-excavation probing to mitigate tunneling risk below the valley.

Jun 23, 2024

By Mark Kennedy, Allan MacRae, Cameron Hams

New technology projects, particularly those involving first-of-a-kind metallurgical facilities, have a poor track record of achieving their overall financial targets, as they incorporate technological risks in addition to normal project risks. Traditional project management tools focus on risk from concept development through implementation, but typically fail to address the additional risks associated with a new technology project including slow start-up, slow ramp-up, and failure to achieve design performance (quality or throughput). These additional risks affect future cash flows produced by the project and hence its value, typically measured as net present value (NPV) or internal rate of return (IRR). Common accounting practice is to reduce the present value of future cash flows by applying a chosen discount rate, often reflecting the corporation's cost of capital. This discount rate does not contain an allowance for technological risk, which is often underestimated or misunderstood by both the financial and engineering project managers. This paper will focus on the topic of project risk and new technology, and how these play a role in the probability of achieving the predicted future cash flows. By properly addressing technological risk in the form of risk-weighted returns, marginal projects can be prevented from proceeding, while sound projects can be given the additional time and resources required to achieve the optimal level of front-end-loading (the level which returns the maximum risk-weighted net present value). A simple set of mathematical tools should enable engineers and financial professionals to establish a common level of understanding, thereby leading to a more accurate assessment whether a new technology project is ready to pass through its next level of approvals.

Jan 1, 2011

By Andreas Bienz

The safety of persons from accidental explosions and fires during manufacture, storage, transport etc. of explosives, pyrotechnics, propellants, firework and ammunition is most commonly assessed according to prescriptive rule-based approach: Safety is given when all requirements which are listed in numerous regulations and directives (such as e.g. safety distances, limited quantities, protective installations etc.) are complied with. Such a deterministic prescriptive rule-based approach is quite easy to apply but has got disadvantages, however: The actual state of safety in a specific case is not explicitly and quantitatively expressed, and it is not distinguished between the endangered individuals and the whole group. As a result, the effects of the safety measures cannot be measured. This is why uneconomical and in the worst case useless safety precautions cannot be avoided. In addition, waivers are difficult to negotiate, meaningful and sound arguments for pro and con being lacking.

Jan 1, 2007

By J Joy, A Bye, G V. Kizil

This paper presents an application of the newly developed risk-cost-benefit (RCB) framework to support risk management decisions for the selection of wall monitoring technologies at an open cut mine site. The RCB framework quantitatively assessed the risk of unstable slope-induced wall failure and its impact on both loss of life and coal recovery. The RCB framework was utilised in the selection of an optimum group of risk-controls to effectively manage the risk of wall failure to ensure safety and optimal production occurred. The RCB framework incorporates mathematical modules that integrated RCB calculations and risk-control effectiveness assessments to determine the risk reduction and financial impact of the examined safety initiatives.This paper provides an overview of the five-staged RCB framework, incorporating the RCB decision support tools, RCBGEN (Risk-Cost-Benefit Generator) and RCEMETHOD (Risk-Control Effectiveness Method), and demonstrates its application to slope stability risk management at the case study site. The RCB charts are designed to display a balance between risk, cost and benefit for easy interpretation by decision makers to support the objective selection of an optimum suite of risk-controls. The RCB analysis revealed that a combination of ævisual inspections, automatic extensometers and radarÆ for fast- and slow-wall failures with structure were sufficient to reduce the probability of loss of life (PLoL) to the æModerateÆ zone as defined by the Australian Geomechanics Society (AGS, 2007) for the case study site. The new framework presented in this paper provides a method to effectively determine the suitability of risk-controls and supports industry efforts to reduce risk to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP).CITATION:Kizil, G V, Bye, A and Joy, J, 2012. Risk-cost-benefit analysis of early warning technologies impact for wall failure risk management in surface mines, in Proceedings Eighth Open Pit OperatorsÆ Conference , pp 55-64 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Sep 18, 2012

By J Harris, J Li, M Shi, P A. Kirsch, D Sprott

Australia has an enviable global reputation as a leader in health and safety outcomes in the hazardous industry of mining, in part due to an increased application of risk management regarding operational planning and mining practice. In 2010, the Australian Coal Association Research Program (ACARP) initiated a major project, RISKGATE, to build, capture and deliver a national body of knowledge to assist companies with the management of risk in coal mining. The online system contains information for tyres, collisions, fires, isolation, strata underground, ground control open cut, explosions, explosives underground, explosives open cut, manual tasks, slips/trips/falls, outbursts, coal bumps and bursts, human–machine interface, tailings dams, occupational hygiene and inrush. In 2014, RISKGATE is developing content for fitness for work (fatigue, drugs, alcohol, physical well-being, psychosocial well-being).This paper analyses underground mining fatalities in Australia and the United States since 2002 and introduces RISKGATE with a focus on the knowledge base for management of hazards in underground operations. Through capturing coal industry expert operational knowledge, RISKGATE provides a cumulative corporate memory at a time of high personnel turnover within the mining industry. This coal-based body of knowledge is a platform that can be evaluated and implemented for other mining domains and high-risk industries within the energy supply chain.CITATION:Kirsch, P A, Shi, M, Harris, J, Li, J and Sprott, D, 2014. RISKGATE and underground operations, in Proceedings 12th AusIMM Underground Operators’ Conference 2014 , pp 11–18 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Mar 24, 2014