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By Sidney Katell

This report, covering the period January 1967 through December 1967, is a continuation of a series that began with the publication of Information Circular 7516 in October 1949. It is the ninth in a series of reports prepared in cooperation with the American Association of Cost Engineers. The abstracted articles are concerned with all phases of cost engineering in the field of chemical and petroleum plants and related subjects. They are from the following sources: 1. American Association of Cost Engineers Bulletin. 2. Bureau of Mines Information Circulars. 3. Bureau of Mines Reports of Investigations. 4. Chemical Engineering. 5. Chemical Engineering Progress. 6. Chemical Week.

Jan 1, 1968

By S. S. Cole, C. E. Wood, T. L. Joseph

"INTRODUCTION Iron ore containing titanium was first used in blast furnaces over a century ago. It is well known that TiO2 is a slag-forming material that will increase the amount of slag produced by the usual gangue materials, silica and alumina. Increase in the volume of slag due to the presence of TiO2 and a lack of information concerning its effect on the properties of the slag have prevented the general use of titaniferous ore. Also rather com¬mon belief among furnace operators that the bottom of the furnace builds up when ores containing TiO2 are smelted has militated against the use of titaniferous ore. This building up of the hearth has been attributed to the formation of copper-colored crystals of titanium cyanonitride, which have been observed in the salamanders of blast furnaces. Until recently the availability of nontitaniferous iron ore has left little incentive to use ore containing titanium.The presence of vanadium in certain deposits of titaniferous magnetite in New York State has created new interest in problems connected with the use of titanium-bearing ore. It appears that most of the vanadium in this ore can be recovered in pig iron, which can be blown in a converter to produce a slag containing vanadium in amounts suitable for the production of ferrovanadium.The Titanium Division of the National Lead Co. recently erected a largo mill to treat ore from Sanford Hill, in Essex County, New York, about 50 miles west of Port Henry. The ore deposit was acquired from the MacIntyre Iron Co. and is often referred to as Sanford ore. It is one of the largest deposits of Iron-bearing material to be found east of the Lake Superior region and is being mined by open-pit methods."

Jan 1, 1943

By J. L. Johnson

The U.S. Bureau of Mines investigated the recovery of tin and silver from the Coal Creek deposit in the Talkeetna Mountains, AK. Approximately 5 million st of reserves grading 0.2 pct Sn with silver credits of 0.2 tr oz/st have been delineated by drilling. A 10-to 25-pct Sn gravity concentrate was produced by treating the minus 20-mesh ore with a spiral, then regrinding to minus 65 mesh and tabling. Sulfide contamination in the gravity concentrate was as high as 60 pet. Sulfide flotation of this concentrate produced tailings containing 40 to 50 pet Sn. Overall recovery was 76 pct for tin but only 5 to 10 pct for silver because of losses during sulfide flotation. Other methods tested to clean the concentrate included cassiterite flotation, gangue flotation, nitric acid leaching, and wet and dry magnetic separation. Tin beneficiation tests on the minus 325-mesh fraction included cassiterite flotation, vanning, sulfide flotation, and fuming. The bench-scale and locked-cycle tests were used to estimate the mass flows for a 1,000-st/d plant.

Jan 1, 2010

By A. V. Z. Brink

Rock engineering risk is defined in this paper as a function of the potential ground motion; the vulnerability of the workplace; exposure of people; and a general term – quality of information. The paper describes the development of prototype software that is a combination between an expert system approach for determining overall risk assessment, a risk control recommendation and a basic GIS (Graphic Information System) approach for graphically overlying input parameters and the output risk. The expert system uses a Bayesian probabilistic approach to combine various workplace-related information, a quantified seismological environment and the exposure of underground staff to provide an overall RE risk rating. The risk assessment is dynamic in that it is recalculated each time that any of the input parameters change, for example each time a seismic event is recorded in the area of interest. The code was tested on a data set from Savuka Gold. As risk assessment is not an absolute prediction of a specific outcome, it is therefore not possible to relate to individual case studies and the reliability of this method would only be determined after an extensive period of use with appropiate back-analysis. Le risque dans le génie minier est défini dans cette étude comme une fonction du mouvement potentiel de terrain ; la vulnérabilité du lieu de travail ; l’exposition des personnes ; et un terme général – la qualité de l’information. L’étude présente décrit le développement d’un logiciel prototype qui est une combinaison entre une démarche de système expert pour déterminer une évaluation générale du risque, une recommandation pour le contrôle du risque, et une démarche de SIG (Système d’Information Géographique) pour superposer graphiquement les paramètres d’entrée et le risque de sortie. Le système expert utilise une méthode de probabilité bayésienne pour combiner des informations variées sur le lieu de travail, des données quantifiées sur l’environnement sismique, et l’exposition du personnel travaillant sous terre, pour finalement produire un classement général de risque minier (RE). L’évaluation du risque est dynamique en ce sens qu’elle est recalculée à chaque fois qu’un des paramètres d’entrée change, par exemple à chaque fois qu’un évènement sismique est enregistré dans la région. Le code fut testé sur un ensemble de données obtenues de Savuka Gold. Comme l’évaluation du risque ne constitue pas une prédiction absolue d’un résultat spécifique, elle est par conséquent difficile à rattacher à des cas individuels et la validité de cette méthode ne pourrait être déterminée qu’après une longue période d’utilisation avec analyse rétrospective appropriée. Das Gesteinstechnikrisiko wird in dieser Arbeit als Funktion einer möglichen Bodenbewegung definiert; die Anfaälligkeit des Arbeitsplatzes; das Ausgesetztsein der Belegschaft; und ein genreller Begriff - Qualität der Informationen. Das Papier beschreibt die Entwicklung einer Prototyp-Software, die eine Kombination zwischen einem Expertensystemzugang für die Bestimmung der gesamten Risikobeurteilung ist, eine Empfehlung zur Risikokontrolle und eines fundamentalen GIS (graphisches Informationssystem) Zuganges für graphisch darüberliegende Eingangsparameter und das Outputrisiko. Das Expertensystem verwendet eine bayesische Wahrscheinlichkeitsannäherung, um verschiedene mit dem Arbeitsplatz in Verbindung stehende Informationen, ein quantitativ bestimmtes seismologisches Umfeld und das Ausgesetztsein des Untertag-Personals zu kombinieren, um eine gesamte RE-Risikobewertung zur Verfügung zu stellen. Die Risikobeurteilung ist insoferne dynamisch,daß sie stets nachkalkuliert wird wenn sich irgendeiner der Eingangsparameter ändert, z.B. jedesmal wenn ein seismischer Fall im Interessensbereich aufgezeichnet wird. Der Code wurde auf einem Datenbestand von Savuka Gold geprüft. Da die Risikobeurteilung nicht eine absolute Vorhersage eines spezifischen Resultates ist, es ist folglich nicht möglich, sich auf einzelne Fallstudien zu beziehen und die Zuverlässigkeit dieser Methode könnte nur nach einer umfangreichen Benutzungsdauer mit geeigneter Postanalyse bestimmt werden.

Jan 1, 2003

By E. W. Felegy

Since 1920, the Bureau of Mines and, other agencies have conducted numerous investigations of methods of communication for use in mines in times of disaster or emergency. The results of these investigations have been reported in various publications (3, 4; 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16). In November 1944, the Bureau of Mines resumed the study of emergency underground communications. Until March 1946, the program was directed toward reexamining methods of underground communication that indicated possibilities of success. Since April 1946, the principal interest of this investigation has been in methods of application of radio to communication in mines, low-frequency radio seeming to offer the most promise as a successful method of emergency mine communication. Results achieved in reexamining other methods and in the investigation or the application of low-frequency radio between November 1944 and September 1946 were reported previously in a publication entitled "Some Studies on Emergency Mine Communications".

Jan 1, 1948

By Jonathan Ludlow

This document is the final report of a study aimed at defining the relative contributions of various sources of respirable airborne dust on longwall faces. In order to define the contribution of various primary sources, continuous dust level data were recorded on five longwalls for an average of five shifts at each. By analysis of these data with records of face activity, it was possible to determine the overall contribution of each of the major elements of the longwall system to overall respirable dust exposure at various face locations. Average levels were determined for roof support generated dust, conveyor and intake dust and for dust levels during various shearer activities. When average levels are compared between mines, a significant degree of consistency is noted. The next phase of the study was aimed at differentiating the various dust sources associated with the shearer. To this end 'fly cuts' varying from 6 in. to 30 in. were closely monitored as were dust levels at operators' positions over the various segments of longwall cycle. These data indicated that the clearance ring of the shearer drum as a disproportionately heavy contributor to shearer dust make. A statistical analysis of the effect of shearer haulage speed on dust make revealed that high haulage speeds are associated with low specific dust make.

Jan 1, 1983

By Gilbert L. Forst

The objective of this program is to identify and evaluate superior, lightweight substitutes for selected coal mine roof support concepts such as crossbars, posts, and crib blocks. Engineering analysis and concept design identified, through tradeoff studies, that some materials are promising, from a technical standpoint, as support substitutes: E-glass reinforced polyester resin, high strength low alloy steel, aluminum, and very high early strength (VHE) cement. An economic analysis indicates that none of the lightweight substitutes are economically competitive with wood on an initial cost basis; however, in terms of life cycle costs based on current dollars, the high strength low alloy steel appears competitive for crossbars, and the VHE cement and E-glass/resin appear competitive for posts.

Jan 1, 1978

By Tony Mazzo

It has often been said by consulting engineers that foundation contractors are in the business of taking risks. One would agree that the mere fact a foundation project can be budgeted, planned, engineered and executed solely on the reliability of eight test borings made at a proposed site having an area of approximately 19,000 square feet, is a risky proposition, in and of itself. Now imagine that this site is actually one half of a city block located in an urban setting in an old, congested, historical neighborhood, surrounded by narrow city streets and historic landmark buildings. And suppose that the required depth of excavation for the construction of the new building on this site is approximately 35 feet and the natural groundwater table is at a depth below existing grade of only 25 feet. Given the difficult site conditions outlined above, one could certainly add the words "challenging" and "complicated" to the inherent word "risky" when describing the construction techniques involved to undertake a foundation project of this magnitude. This case study will discuss in detail how the excavation, sheeting, dewatering and underpinning work was accomplished as well as the problems overcome along the way.

Jan 1, 2003

By R. HOLROYD

The Ludwigshafen and Oppau plants are largely independent I. G. factories situated some 23 miles apart on the west bank of the Rhine facing lannheim. The former factory is a general organic chemical works specializing in dyes, dye intermediates, plastics and synthetic rubber,. while the latter is a heavy organic chemical factory producing ammonia, methanol, higher alcohols and their derivatives. Before the war much of the I. G. research and development work was carried out at Ludwigs- hafen; in particular the high pressure research section directed by Dr. Mathias Pier played a very active part in all hydrogenation developments. Apart from the possibility that a full scale hydrogenation or Fischer Tropsch plant had been erected at Ludwigshafen/Oppau during the war, the main objectives of an oil team investigation were: - (a) To obtain from Dr. Pier and his staff an advance general picture of German fuel production processes. (b) To study the fuel developments still in the research and pilot plant stage. (c) To examine any new developments in hydrogen or synthesis gas manufacture. (d) To look for new processes for production of high anti-knock fuel constituents and for new fuel additives. (e) To investigate new chemical syntheses based on raw materials obtainable from oil. The Ludwigshafen and Oppau factories were first visited by the large team listed in Appendix A during the period 25-31st March. The investigation revealed that no large plant for synthetic fuels or lubricants had been operated at this target. All the important members of the Fuel Research Section staff had been evacuated to Heidelberg and information on the work of this department was therefore limited to that contained in seized documents, the greater part of which have still to be examined in detail. Valuable information on synthesis gas production from hydrocarbon gases was obtained as well as interesting data on a num- ber of chemical syntheses. Two members of the above team Holroyd and Faragher accompan- ied by Major Tilley (interrogator) went on to Heidelberg, contacted Dr. Pier and the chief members of his staff on April 1st and obtained from them the hydrogenation information given later in the body of the report. Later, after visiting Leuna, Holroyd, Faragher and Ellis paid a second visit to Heidelberg and to Ludwigshafen/Oppau on 27th-30th May to check a number of details, particularly with respect to hydrogenation costs, and to obtain information on the pressure.conversion of water gas to hydrogen and on the manufacture of Wickel pressure vessels.

Aug 1, 1943

By D. Chakravarty, D. Dutta, B. Samanta, S. Patteti

"This paper presents the mixed spectral behaviour of iron ores from deposits in Gua, India. Spectral signatures of powder samples and their two-component mixtures were generated by spectro - radiometry. Spectra were divided into continuum and absorption components. A modified Gaussian model was used to extract subtle features from the absorption components of the spectra. A linear unmixing model (LUM) applied to estimate minerals from the spectra of mixed powder samples indicated that this model achieved an R2 value of 0.88. The LUM was then applied to estimate the abundance of ores from a hyperspectral satellite image of the deposit area.RÉSUMÉ Le présent article montre le comportement spectral mixte de minerais de fer de gisements à Gua, en Inde. Les signatures spectrales d’échantillons de poudres et leurs mélanges à deux composantes ont été générés par spectroradiométrie. Les spectres ont été divisés en composantes de continuum et d’absorption. Un modèle gaussien modifié a été utilisé pour extraire des caractéristiques subtiles des composantes d’absorption des spectres. Un modèle de démélange linéaire, appliqué pour estimer les minéraux dans le spectre des échantillons de poudres mixtes, indique que ce modèle a atteint une valeur R2 de 0,88. Le modèle de démélange linéaire a ensuite été appliqué pour estimer la quantité de minerai à partir d’une image satellite hyperspectrale du secteur du gisement."

Jan 1, 2015

By R. M. Santmyers

Thorium and cerium are two of the group of elements known as "rare earth metals," and are obtained from the mineral monazite. Previous to the employment of thorium and cerium in incandescent gas mantles these elements were nothing more than laboratory curiosities, as the rest of the rare-earth metals are to-day. The most important salts of these rare earths are the nitrates. In the manufacture of gas mantles, thorium nitrate is the principal ingredient and forms prom 92 to 99 per cent of the impregnating material; the other 1 or 2 per cent is largely cerium nitrate and is quite as necessary, for without it there would be little luminosity to the mantle when in use. When the mantle is "burned off," the nitrates are changed to oxides. The monazite used as a source of thoria contains from 6 to 9 per cent of thorium oxide (Th02) and 24 to 32 per cent of cerium oxide (Ce203). As only the thoria and a very small hart of the ceria from the monazite could be used in gas-mantle manufacture, for a time the residues consisting mostly of ceria with somewhat smaller quantities of other rare earths found no commercial application. Later, however, they came to be utilized in several ways, the most important being: (1) the manufacture of cored flaming arc carbons, a great, irmprovement over the plain arc carbons used in electric lighting; (2) cerium metal used in the manufacture of pyrophoric or sparking alloys or "flints" for automatic pocket lighters and miners' lamps; and (3) the production of special kinds of optical and art glass.

Jan 1, 1930

The Minerals Data Source Directory is a compilation of descriptive information on the availability, content, and location of minerals data in the Federal Government. It is intended to assist Government personnel and the general public in locating and acquiring minerals information. Included in the Directory are descriptions of data bases, publications, information systems, and information offices containing data pertaining to ail aspects of mineral production, consumption, trade, and related information. These mineral data sources include the Federal agencies such as the Department of the Interior's Bureau of Mines and Geological Survey whose major mission is the collection and dissemination of mineral information. Also included are agencies such as the Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Labor, State, Transportation, and Treasury, the Central Intelligence Agency, the Environ- mental Protection Agency, the Federal Reserve System, the interstate Commerce Commission, and the Securities and Exchange Commission, whose primary mission is the collection of data in nonmineral subject areas, but in which the mineral industry is a component.

Jan 1, 1983

By James L. Elder

The Bureau of Mines and the Alabama. Power Co. jointly conducted a first experiment in underground gasification of coal at Gorgas, Ala., during the fall and winter of 1946-47. This preliminary experiment showed that it was not difficult to maintain combustion of coal underground, and that coal in place could be completely gasified. It was noted that the high temperature developed by the gasification of coal in place brought about changes in overlying strata that appeared to be favorable to the process. The high temperatures caused the roof rock to become plastic, to expand, and to settle down on the mine floor directly behind the reacting coke face. These results were promising enough to warrant further investigation of the process. It was believed that if this action could be controlled properly with roofs of similar composition, it would tend to force the gas-making fluids underground against the coal faces. Plans for the second experiment were based in part on this favor-able roof action, and the successful operation of the planned initial straightline passages depended on this fact. Gorgas was chosen as the site for the second experiment for the following reasons: A tract of coal land of sufficient size was available and isolated from the main body of coal; the roof rock was similar in composition to that encountered in the first experiment; and the overlying strata were thick enough to eliminate some of the operating difficulties that had been encountered, In addition, power, water, and machine-shop facilities as well as an adequate supply of labor were available in this area, and the friendly cooperation of the Alabama Power Co. further recommended this site for the planned experiment.

Jan 1, 1951

By Rolf B. Pedersen, Ana Filipa Marques, Ingunn H. Thorseth, Ingeborg Okland

"Deep sea mining of polymetallic sulphides will change the physical and chemical conditions at the seafloor by creating scars when sulphides are removed, and potentially also by deposition of mine tailings at the seafloor. These changes will impact the existing ecosystems at the seafloor in and around the mined areas. Seafloor Massive Sulphide deposits that have been exposed to oxic seawater weather into Fe-metal-oxyhydroxides. However, the rates of weathering and release of heavy metals and other toxic compounds to the environment from freshly exposed sulphides in a deep-sea environment are not well studied.During a cruise to the Arctic Mid-Ocean Ridge in the Norwegian-Greenland Sea in July 2014 we will initiate in-situ experiments investigating the microbiological and geochemical processes involved in the weathering of freshly exposed massive sulphides deposits in a natural environment. This will be done by creating scars in naturally occurring sulphide deposits and by deploying weathering experiments at the seafloor. The sites will be revisited and re-sampled in 2015. The mobility and fate of heavy metals will be one of the main concerns of the study as well as constraining the time it will take for exposed sulphides to return to the chemical state present prior to mining. In this presentation we will present the experimental framework and the preliminary results from the July 2014 cruise. This project is part of the EU funded MIDAS (Managing impacts of deep sea resource exploitation) project."

Sep 1, 2014

By J. Patrick Ryan, Thor H. Kiilsgaard, Charles W. Merrill, E. T. McKnight

The U.S. Treasury stocks of silver have been reduced at such a rapid rate to meet industrial and coinage requirements that they face exhaustion in 3 or 4 years. Alleviation of the silver problem will require increasing supply or reduc ing demand. This paper examines poss ible long-range resource development and research programs and improved secondary recovery. The possible reduction or elimination of silver in coinage and development and introduction of substitutes in the arts and industry are also discussed.

Feb 1, 1965

A prototype EM Location System was fabricated and tested at the Geneva Mine near Dragerton, Utah. This system consisted of six manpack transmitters and six manpack receivers covering the frequency band from 900 Hz to 2900 Hz as well as a six channel receiver designed for use, in a helicopter. Tests showed that EM signals from lightweight (3/4 lb) transmitters could be detected both on the surface and from a helicopter through as much as 4450 ft of relatively high conductivity (2 X 10- 2 mhos/m) overburden. Furthermore, the resulting field strength profiles could be used to determine source location to within 150 ft of the actual surveyed location in the mine. Modifications were made to a Monitoring, Locating and Communications System being tested at the Bruceton Mine, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. These modifications have improved the performance and quality of the paging and voice telephony mode of the system. Subsurface receiver modifications have improved reception of voice downlink signals.

Jan 1, 1973

By Xinhua Wang, Qiangqiang Wang, Yubin Li, Shusen Li, Lifeng Zhang

"Numerical simulation on the fluid flow in a Flow-Control Mold (FC-Mold) were performed. The motion of inclusions were calculated. With FC-Mold, the flow pattern and surface velocity become more symmetrical, and at higher casting speed the velocity of liquid steel in the top region of the mold was largely reduced with the highest velocity of the meniscus reducing from 0.65 mis to 0.4 mis, and the meniscus shape became flatter. With FC-Mold, more inclusions approached to the surface of the slab and the amount of inclusion in the center of mold became fewer. Larger inclusions were easier to remove, however, the EM filed of the FC-Mold could hardly improve the removal of inclusions from the molten steel.IntroductionElectromagnetic brake technology is an effective method to control the flow pattern within continuous casting mold, together with other casting parameters, nozzle design and mold geometry [1-5]. Due to the interaction between the applied magnetic flux and the conductive molten steel inside the mold cavity, a force is generated in the direction opposite to the jet flow, which can decelerate the high speed steel jet from the SEN ports. The potential benefits include fewer surface and internal defects, fewer inclusion especially at higher casting speed. However if used imperfectly, electromagnetic forces can have opposite effect [6]. Numerical models are the best tool to optimize electromagnetic flow control. In the current study, numerical simulation was performed to investigate the flow field in a continuous casting FC-Mold, and the effect of different operation parameters on the flow, surface level and velocity in FC-Mold were discussed."

Jan 1, 2013

By K. Mikulash

"Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited is located at Joutel in North-Western Québec. The mine is about four miles north-west from the town on the left bank of the Harricana River. The present mining is 1,800 feet deep with an extensive geological development below this level.HISTORY The development of the ore body started sometimes in 1967 and then the operation ceased in 1969 and again reopened in 1973 due to higher prices of gold. During these periods of active development, a considerable metallurgical research has been done by different laboratories and research and design companies.The original capacities of the Mill differed as much as 30%. So did the concept of the ore treatment. The original design of the mill was for 200 TPD of ore with straight cyanidation. The problems with low gold extraction, high reagent consumption and poor filtration resulted in a decrease of the expected mill output to an initial 550 TPD with gold recoveries in the order of 40 to 60%.Although the studies and research work done on the ore varied, all of them had a common conclusion: a very fine grind is needed to expose gold. The mining method (sub-level blast hole mining) now provides the ore that differs from that on which the metallurgical test work was conducted and the original capacity calculations had been done.These variations in the concept consequently led to the conclusion that the size of gold is a determining factor for the process.Kilborn Engineering provided the original design with the Leslie Eng¬ineering completing the design. The metallurgical test work has been done by the Department of Energy, Mines & Resources, Lakefield Research of Canada, Kilborn Engineering and Sidam Incorporated.The new flotation section with secondary grinding has been designed and put into operation by the company in December 1975 with the results yet to be evaluated."

Jan 1, 1976

By CHARLES R. KETES

I. INTRODUCTORY. Lake Valley, New Mexico, has long been one of the most widely known mining districts of southwestern United States. For many years its silver-mines have been among the most famous of the country, visited by many mining men and geologists; yet little information regarding the origin of the ore-deposits and the influencing geologic conditions has found its way into print. With the recent revival of public attention, after a decade and a half of utter stagnation, to the mining of silver in the Southwest, special interest attaches to the genesis and geologic disposition of the ore-bodies which are so finely open to inspection in the Lake Valley district. Moreover, the local features here described are typical of the conditions existing over a much larger field. The fact that the ores are chiefly the chloride and the chloro-bromide of silver adds further interest. Data bearing upon the genesis of haloid ore-deposits are, at the present time, very much sought. Arid regions offer particularly favorable conditions for the formation of such ores. This New Mexican district appears to supply solutions to many problems concerning this class of ores, which have long vexed the student of ore-deposits. II. LOCATION AND HISTORY. The town of Lake Valley is situated in Sierra county, in the southwestern part of New Mexico, and 100 miles northwest of El Paso, as the crow flies.From a mining standpoint, the location of the place is itself suggestive, as it lies on the southeastern slope of the great quaquaversal arch of the Colorado plateau. The center of this vast dome is in north-central Arizona, and radii about 150 miles in length reach its foot in all directions. Around its basal margins runs the broad mineralized belt containing most of the great mines of the Southwest, which extends from south-central Colorado southward and southwestward through New Mexico, thence westward through Arizona, northwestward and northward through southeastern California and western Nevada, and, finally, eastward through Nevada and Utah into Colorado again. This great mineralized belt is important as geographically limiting profitable mining over the greater part of five States.

Jan 1, 1908

By C. Richard Tinsley

INTRODUCTION The economic analysis (Chapter 3), the engineering studies (Chapter 10), the credit structure (and the consequential funding sources) - Chapter 11, and the overall feasibility structure for any venture are all directed to determining one major decision element: How much and how certain is the reward for taking these risks? Risk assessment is a surprisingly weak area of analysis and is usually addressed in a checklist fashion. It is much preferable to deal within a risk system so that the inevitable tradeoffs among risks are correctly made. DEFINITION The first step toward risk definition must be to ascertain all of the risks to which a project or a company is exposed; otherwise one will remain ignorant of the possibility of a financially crippling loss until it occurs. (Carter and Crockford, 1974). However, simply stating what "risk" is can lead to debate. For example, risk could be (adapted from Vaughan, 1982): -the chance of a loss - uncertainty of loss -possibility of loss - uncertainty -dispersion of actual from expected results - probability of an outcome different from the one expected - possibility of an occurrence of an undesirable contingency -a condition in which a possibility of a loss exists. For the minerals industry financier, the last definition is probably the most appropriate. However, from a mineral company's point of view the definition might well include the possibility of not achieving the expected financial return. RISK CLASSIFICATION Risk identification will be readily agreed as the all-important first step. There are five major "branches" of risk classification. These are: -Statistical -Modellers -Checklist -Project Financing -Insurance The Statistical set discovered probability theory and any risk discussion soon deteriorates into a mathematical jungle (Megill, 1977; Hartman, 1976; Reutlinger, 1970; and Pouliquen, 1970).Their use of terminology tells its own story: coin toss (binomial distribution), gamblers' ruin, delphi (oracle) techniques, monte-carlo simulations, random walks, etcetera. These techniques inadequately represent the judgements necessary in an increasingly complicated and interrelated world. The risk Modellers have turned to the computer to handle these inter-relationships but soon find barriers because of "simultaneity". Certainly the computer has its uses to conduct various analyses (marketed as "sensitivity" analyses) but very often one finds that this involves changing one or two variables at a time, all other things being equal. Unfortunately, in a modern and complex world all other things do not remain equal. The statisticians will, no doubt, jump to their own defence by citing this

Jan 1, 1985