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By J. S. Osoba, J. G. Richardson, F. M. Perkins

Laboratory experiments have shown profound diffcrences in the behavior of so-called "fresh cores" from the East Texes field and of the same cores after ex~ractio~l with organic solvents. The residual oil satura/ion remaining after waterflooding fresh cores was appreciably lower than the corresponding saturations after flooding extracted cores. This behavior was also reflected in the water-oil relative permeability-saturatiorl relations, which were more favorable for high oil recovery from the fresh cores. These differences were evident not only in the amount of residual oil left after wafer flooding, but also in the saturation water remaining in the core after displacernent by oil. Residual water saturation after displacernetzt of water by oil was higher in the fresh cores than in the extracved core,. Capillary pressure-saturation relations were also different for the fresh crnd extracted cores. Imbibition experiments indicated that both fresh and extracted Bast Texas cores imbibed water spontarteOLISIY, but- the rate of imbibition of water was higher for samp1es after. extraction than it was for fresh core. material. INTRODUCTION Several years ago a series of waterflooding tests was made in the laboratory on a number of Woodbine core samples from the East Texas field. These samples had been stored in containers open to the air and were extracted with organic solvents before they were subjected to the laboratory tests. After water flooding, the residual saturation of kerosene, which was the oil used in the tests, was found to average about 30 per cent. This saturation was higher than expected. In investigating the circumstances which might have been responsible for such a high residual oil saturation, attention was given to possible changes in wetting properties of the rock brought about by the procedure employed in extracting the cores. Preliminary results indicated that the explanation for the high residual oil saturation lay in the wetting behavior of the cores, though what effect extraction had on this behavior was not clear. In consequence, the work described in this report was undertaken in an attempt to investigate the mechanism responsible, and to ascertain the actual residual oil saturation to be expected in the reservoir after water flooding. It was soon found that there were profound differcnces in the behavior of so-called "fresh cores" from the East Texas field and of the same cores after extraction with organic solvents. These differences were evident not only in the amount of residual oil left after water flooding, but also in the saturation of watet remaining in the core after displacement by oil. The complete explanation of this behavior is not yet apparent. The description of work and results described in following sections, therefore, must be considered as an interim report presenting facts which must await additional information before they can be fully interpreted.

Jan 1, 1956

By G. A. Croes, N. Schwarz

This paper reports the results of a series of model displacement experiments carried out for measuring the efficiency of the water-drive process. This series forms a continuation and extension of that described by Engel-herts and Klinkenberg. Detailed information has been obtained on the influence of the oil/water viscosity ratio. The results are represented in the form of a diagram from which both the oil recovery and the water/oil ratio can be easily read off as a function of the total production (oil plus water) for all values of the viscosity ratio M between I and 500. These resu1ts are viewed in the light of the two existing theories on water flooding, viz. that of Buckley and Leverett and that of Dietz. It is shown that if the Buckley-Leverett theory applies, the relation between the relative permeability ratio and saturation, which plays a major role in this theory, (.an be calculated with a high degree of accuracy from the results of the model experiments. Dietz's theory is found to be in agreement with the experimental results in a certain range of circumstances. A discussion of the physical background of the Buckley- Leverett and Dietz theories makes it clear why the latter fails to agree with some of the experimental results. INTRODUCTION For an economical exploitation of oil fields both a rational control of natural (primary) recovery processes and a proper application of artificial (secondary) recovery methods are essential. These require detailed information upon the dependence of the relevant flow processes on the variables by which they are governed. Three methods are available for obtaining this information: (1) (statistical) analysis of actual field data; (2) appropriately scaled model experiments; and (3) mathematical analysis of the physical problem. If sufficient data were available, the first method would, in principle, be the most reliable one, although it has the drawback that the basic relationships between the variables involved are to a large extent obscured by the natural inhomogeneities of most reservoirs. The most profitable procedure seems to be: (a) determining the fundamental relations for idealized reservoirs by methods (2) and (3); (b) checking the consistency of the results obtained by these two methods; and (c) establishing the range of applicability of these methods to actual reservoirs by comparison with the data accumulated under (1). In this paper items (a) and (b) are dealt with for the case of homogeneous loose sands initially saturated

Jan 1, 1956

By M. C. Leverett

KNOWLEDGE of the theory underlying the behavior of mixtures of fluids in reservoir rocks is essential to the proper solution of certain types of problems in petroleum pro-duction, but is as yet incompletely devel-oped. The object of this paper is to show the application of well established thermody-namic and physical principles to these prob-lems, and thus to assist in the development of the basic theory. For convenience the problems to be considered here may be divided into two groups: I. Static problems, involving only the static balance between capillary forces and those due to the difference in densities of the fluids; i.e., gravitational forces. 2. Dynamic problems, involving analysis of the motion of mixtures of immiscible fluids in porous media under the influence of forces due to gravity, capillarity, and an impressed external pressure differential. CAPILLARY EQUILIBRIUM IN SANDS Under this heading the static type of problem will be discussed and the results of experimental investigations on the capillary properties of unconsolidated sands will be presented. Although the discussion of this section is, in a sense, prefatory to the treat-ment of problems of mixture flow, the con-cepts developed here have considerable intrinsic importance apart from their ap-plication to flow problems. For, it is reason-able to postulate that the reservoir fluids are, owing to their long existence in undis-turbed mutual contact prior to exploitation, in substantial equilibrium. It follows that their distribution in the reservoir at the time of tapping should be entirely predict-able from the theory of capillary equi-librium, provided certain experimentally measurable properties of the reservoir rock are known. Knowledge of the distribution of the several fluids in the reservoir is, of course, helpful in the estimation of reserves and in other problems. It is to be emphasized that throughout the discussion of capillary statics it is as-sumed that the fluids are in equilibrium from the capillary standpoint. Thus, water, where it is referred to as being in a reser-voir, will be understood to be interstitial water, present at the time of drilling the reservoir, commonly termed "connate" water. The theory developed here is perfectly general for any porous solid, whether a carefully prepared unconsolidated sand or a natural sandstone from an oil reservoir. At present, however, only problems in-volving clean, unconsolidated sands can be made to yield numerical solutions, since only such sands have been adequately in-vestigated experimentally. Experimental evaluation of the pertinent properties of natural reservoir rocks will permit the ex-tension of the numerical treatment to prob-lems involving these materials. We shall now consider in some detail the static equilibrium of fluid mixtures in porous solids; that is, the manner in which the reservoir fluids are distributed vertically when the forces due to capillarity are just balanced by those due to gravitation.

Jan 1, 1940

By K. Burke, G. Zhan, A. Mayer

A cover with capi1lary barrier effects (CCBE) is being constructed an the AA leach pad at the Barrick Goldstrike mine near Carlin, Nevada. The purpose of the cover is to eliminate/minimize infiltration of meteoric waters into the leach pad. Laboratory and numerical analyses indicate that Carlin Formation siltstone (TCS), a locally available material, has the necessary hydrologic characteristics when placed on the leach pad to act as a CCBE. A pilot study was conducted on a mall-scale test cover placed on the AA leach pad to examine the cover performance under irrigated conditions. The preliminary test results demonstrate that the designed cover is capable of preventing meteoric water infiltration.

Jan 1, 2002

By K. Burke, G. Zhan, A. Mayer

A cover with capillary barrier effects (CCBE) is being constructed on the AA Leach Pad at the Barrick Goldstrike Mine site near Carlin, Nevada. The purpose of the cover is to eliminate/minimize infiltration of meteoric waters into the leach pad. Laboratory and numerical analyses indicate that Carlin Formation siltstone (TCS), a locally available material, has the necessary hydrologic characteristics when placed on the leach pad to act as a CCBE. A pilot study has been conducted on a small-scale test cover placed on the AA Leach Pad to examine the cover performance under irrigated conditions. The preliminary test results demonstrate that the designed cover is capable of preventing meteoric water infiltration.

Jan 1, 2001

By John K. Hammes

This paper has been written as one of a group of papers dealing with the subject "Cost Elements in Mining". What are cost elements in mining? The mine operator thinks of direct mining costs in terms of labor, materials, supplies and power, and we might define cost more generally as the price paid to acquire or produce something. Economic theory also has its concepts of cost. From one point of view, that of the consumer, the cost of mineral commodities might be viewed as the total price industry pays for mine output. Similarly, the mining company engaged in the on-going business of finding, developing and operating new mines is concerned very much today with the distribution of all the revenue paid for mine output and not just with its direct or controllable cash costs. In other words, what will the labor force, the supplier of energy, explosives, and reagents, and the supplier of government services, management, capital and the ore reserves receive for their contribution to production.

Jan 1, 1974

By Leo Wolrnan

IN the relations that exist between capital and labor in this country, there is a bright as well as a dark side. After many years of distressing conditions of labor and a plentiful supply of propaganda, it is doubtful that the doctrine of the class struggle, however defined and stated, has been embraced by any influential and numerous elements of our population. Extreme and uncivilized methods of conflict, whether they be the labor spy as used by the employer or the sit-down strike by organized, labor, have come to be abandoned as the result of the pressure of sober and distinterested public opinion. Unwise terms of our law of trade unions and the unbridled zeal of its administrators show some slight signs of being revised in the light of 'experience and the protests of the law's own beneficiaries. At the point where labor policy touches economic conditions, the two powerful factions in the American labor movement appear to look with a less friendly eye on the bewildering succession of economic experiments and to have a deep nostalgia for a simpler and more prosperous economy.

Jan 1, 1938

Background information, formulae and a systematic set of procedures for estimating capital and operating costs for open pit mining equipment are presented in this paper. Firstly, equipment capital costs are required. These can be obtained from either suppliers, contractors or from first principles. The equipment is then divided into cost elements. Typically these are fuel and power requirements, spare parts consumption, wear items such as tyres, teeth and drill bits and finally repair and operating labour requirements. By consideration of the cost and life of each element a base cost can be derived. The base cost is then adjusted to suit specific site conditions such as the proximity to spare parts suppliers, the duty or ground conditions and the management and operator skills specific to the site. Hence, the same item of equipment can be costed to reflect different operations. Included are tables and data for typical plant items. Several examples are also given to illustrate the methodology being presented. The intention is to provide a set of procedures to allow costs to be built up from base level in a systematic and repeatable way. Applications for these costs include feasibility studies, budgetting and data for economic analyses.

Jan 1, 1990

The United States Bureau of Mines is establishing a computerized mineral inventory system to help the Federal Government appraise its mineral position and prepare programs insuring against critical shortages of materials. This system, called the Minerals Availability System (MAS), is a component of the Bureau's minerals intelligence function designed to conduct and maintain an inventory of minerals important to the Nation. The MAS defines the physical and commercial availability of the mineral resources. Known resources are evaluated and classified by deposit for entry into a computer storage and retrieval system. An integral concern of these evaluations is the cost of mining and beneficiating the ore contained in specific deposits. To meet this concern, a cost handbook was developed as an aid to preparing feasibility-type estimates for capital and operating costs of mining and primary beneficiation of various types of mineral occurrences. Cost data, obtained from U.S. and Canadian companies, were used as the basis of this handbook. The handbook presents cost curves and equations for each component of the mining and beneficiation process. Factors for each cost component are also given, thereby allowing the updating of cost for time, geographic location, labor rates, and mining and milling conditions. Included in the latter conditions are items such as the length of haul, need for rock bolts, and a rock work index for ores and rocks of various hardnesses. 1.2. USE OF THE HANDBOOK Using the handbook a feasibility-type estimate falling within 25% of expected actual cost is obtainable by summarizing cost components. This handbook should not be used to determine the cost of any single component of a mining or beneficiation system, as any single component may not fall within the 257 limit. It must be understood that anyone who uses the handbook must have a comprehensive knowledge of mining and processing technology and cost estimating procedures. The handbook was intended to be used internally by the Minerals Availability System. Because

Jan 1, 2012

By Dr. O’Neil Thomas J., Donald W. Gentry

The greatest of all gifts is the power to estimate things at their true worth. LaRockefoucauld INTRODUCTION The primary reason for performing a feasibility study on a proposed mining venture is to investigate all phases of the proposal in as much detail as necessary to justify either dropping the project or continuing expenditures through the next stage. The economic evaluation component of the feasibility study, therefore, must ultimately be based on information which provides an answer to the question, "What is it going to cost?" Unfortunately engineers preparing feasibility studies never have all the engineering or economic information they would like or need. Consequently, the economic portion of the analysis can only be performed if estimates of the various costs associated with the project are made. Project cost estimates, in turn, require estimates of all the physical factors affecting cost components, including anticipated performance of plant and equipment as well as all pertinent geologic, mineralogic, and metallurgical variables. Before useful cost estimating procedures can be applied considerable data must be collected, compiled, and organized. Preparatory work typically includes organization of cost data available for estimating purposes, development of techniques for updating historical costs, and establishing methods of forecasting prices and costs over the duration of the project. Cost estimates for mining and mineral processing projects involve so many features and variables that it is absolutely essential to have some means by which the vast amount of detail can be organized. It is very important to identify, in as much detail as possible, all the cost data available (historical and developed) to the estimator. These costs, after being properly identified in detail, should be com- piled, stored, updated regularly, and made readily available for use in developing new cost estimates Accessing files of current cost information requires a standardized numerical system of classifying cost data. When uniform definitions and procedures are used, every project record contributes to the common store of estimating data.

Jan 1, 1984

By Andrew L. Mular, K. K. Humphreys

Introduction Estimates performed on potential future plants must by their very nature be either order-of-magnitude or budget (preliminary) estimates. Of the three types of estimates recognized by the American National Standards Institute (ANSI Standard Z94.2), order-of-magnitude and budget estimates are the least accurate. Order-of-magnitude estimates have an expected accuracy of plus 50 percent to minus 30 percent. In other words, it is anticipated that actual project cost will be no more than 50 percent above the estimate and no less than 30 percent below the estimate. Budget estimates, or preliminary estimates as they are often called, have an expected accuracy of plus 30 percent to minus 15 percent. The reason that greater accuracy cannot be expected in performing estimates on proposed new facilities is simply that insufficient data is generally available to permit performance of a highly accurate estimate. As stated in ANSI Standard Z94.2, a definitive estimate, i.e., an estimate with an expected accuracy of plus 15 percent to minus 5 percent," . . is an estimate prepared from very defined engineering data . . . (including). . .as a minimum, fairly complete plot plans and elevations, piping and instrument diagrams, one line electrical diagrams, equipment data sheets and quotations, structural sketches, soil data and sketches of major foundations, building sketches and a complete set of specifications." In other words, the engineering of the project must be fairly well underway to permit a definitive estimate to be performed. Such is the case only after the construction decision has been made, all potential alternatives evaluated, and major expenditures committed for a particular course of action. This situation is beyond the scope of this chapter. The chapter is directed to comparison of various technological alternatives for which site specific engineering data is not generally available. Accordingly, such comparisons can be made only by utilizing preliminary or order-of-magnitude estimating techniques.

Jan 1, 1982

By G. A. Kordosky

Solution mining followed by solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) is one possible way to economically extract copper from ore bodies which cannot otherwise be profitably exploited. Published costs for the unit processes of SX and EW are out of date especially in view of the newer reagents now available and the newer circuit configurations, This paper updates the costs for SX-EW in 1985 dollars and also discusses some of the trade-offs which must be made when designing an SX-W plant.

Jan 1, 1986

By S. J. Cook

The subject of capital and the Canadian mining industry is so broad as to be impossible of comprehensive treatment in brief form. The purpose of the present paper therefore will be only to outline in a meagre and somewhat sketchy way the nature and extent of the mineral industry in Canada and to point out those features which are likely to be of general public interest. Canada's mineral industry has a long and creditable production record. The? value of the output per capita rose from $2.23 in 1886 to a maximum of $26.40 in 1920 and the value of the products from ten million dollars in the former year to almost two hundred and twenty-eight million dollars in 1920. Compared with other primary industries and on the basis of the value of production, mining held third place in Canada in 1920, the premier position going to agriculture and the value of forestry production placing that industry second in the list. In the mineral industry, between six and seven thousand properties are operated annually giving employment to up- wards of sixty thousand employees to whom about seventy-five million dollars is paid in salaries and wages. During 1923, seventeen mineral products reached a production value of one million dollars or over in Canada and in order of the values assigned these were: coal, gold, nickel, cement, cop-per, silver, clay products, lead, asbestos, natural gas, stone, zinc, lime, cobalt, sand and gravel, gypsum and salt.

Jan 1, 1924

By D. K. Dysinger

Capital resource budgeting is the means by which managers of publicly held companies fulfill their fiduciary responsibility to maximize the wealth of stockholders. Managers maximize shareholder wealth by allocating investment capital to the most productive of competing alternative projects in a manner that maximizes the net present value of the firm's future cash flow. The techniques of cash flow analysis are the primary tools available for selecting a corporate portfolio of projects that meets or exceeds the rate of return expected by shareholders. The reliability of cash flow analysis hinges on the ability of managers to forecast the future values of individual components. The accuracy and reliability of forecasting determine the soundness of capital investment decisions and, ultimately, determine the value of the firm. The present paper will explore tools for forecasting the spot market price of a commodity, silver, to demonstrate the difficulty and uncertainty involved in forecasting the future. The commodity price is only one of a number of components of the cash flow equation. Each component has a unique and uncertain future and must be individually analyzed and forecast to arrive at a robust cash flow model.

Jan 1, 1997

By R. J. Balfour, T. L. Papucciyan

"INTRODUCTIONCapital Cost considerations are basic to feasibility in the achievement of success for Mineral Processing Projects as much as or more than in many other industries. Capital cost is an important factor ae it 1R the unit of measurement for process engineering economic decisions. As a result of ever increasing complexity, alternatives of process and remoteness of site, there is an ever increasing emphasis on accurate estimating and the attendant cost control systems in the international market of today for the Mineral Industry where initial plant costs are becoming a more important factor than operating costs. An undervaluation means trouble ahead. An over-cautious assessment may bring an unnecessary abandonment of a project. Consequently, the ultimate cost must be predicted early and accurately and must be controlled to this parameter during the design and construction phases. Cost Est!~ mating is one of a variety of project management tools used to assist in planning and achieving the optimum balance between Quality, Cost and Time, the eternal triangle of evaluation, namely obtaining a project of acceptable quality at minimum cost and on time. In order to attain these established objectives, proper planning, organizing, coordinating, monitoring, adjusting and controlling the design, procurement and construction elements of the project are essential.This project management approach based upon the principle of a Task Force under single management, comprising a complete service organization, requires a substantial number of qualified individuals specialized in their own field and capable of working together as a team to perform their various functions effectively. The Task Force is supported by their chiefs of discipline and performs in accordance with established procedures and standards under the leadership of a Project Manager.General Engineering Company Limited with the backing of the full resources of Surveyer, Nenniger & Chenevert and its total staff of approximately 1,0009 offers the complete project management service to the Mineral Processing Industry of North America and the rest of the world. As mine sites become more remote and difficult of access, the need for an experienced team of specialists who work under the Task Force principle, with well established standards and procedures becomes even more important. Our long history of successful pro1ecta in this field has been our training ground for the fulfillment of this need."

Jan 1, 1972

By Frederick G. Coqueron, Joseph E. Pogue

FOR a number of years, the Department of Petroleum Economics of The Chase National Bank has been conducting a study of the capital employed in the petroleum industry. The technique followed is that of combining and summarizing the available financial and operating data for a group of thirty representative oil companies, doing about two thirds of the domestic business of the entire industry. This paper presents the results of the findings for the year 1943, and supplements the survey, "Sources, Disposition, and Characteristics of the Capital Employed by Thirty Oil Companies During the Nine-Year Period, 1934-1942," presented before the Petroleum Division of the American Institute of Mining and Metallurgical Engineers on Feb. 24, 1944, and also published as a pamphlet by The Chase National Bank.

Jan 1, 1944

By L Blackwell

Strategic mine scheduling is an industry best practice for increasing the long-term value of mining operations and supply chains. The application of optimisation technology such as mixed integer linear programming (MILP) is able to achieve a mathematically optimal result for a given scheduling model. Such a model will typically define the available source material, processing options and desired constraints for accessing and processing the material. Most strategic scheduling models, however, do not include a sufficiently detailed model of capital expenditure options related to capacity expansion.Typical strategic schedule models do not include important capital expenditure features such as capacity decay or expiration (limited lifespan of trucks), precedence relationships over time (rail construction before a new plant or non-linear expansions due to economies of scale) or mutually exclusive option sets (choices of plant size). By not including these features, a strategic mine scheduling model for a capital-sensitive operation is unable to be optimised to deliver maximum value or profitability.This paper presents several results of MILP optimisation using advanced capital expenditure modelling for mining operations and supply chains. Results of the study demonstrate that optimising capital expenditure at the same time as optimising the mining schedule allows for minimisation of capital purchasing, optimal timing for those purchases and optimal scheduling around them. Overall, this results in an increase in net present value.CITATION:Blackwell, L, 2014. Capital expenditure modelling for strategic mine scheduling, in Proceedings Orebody Modelling and Strategic Mine Planning Symposium 2014 , pp 315–322 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Nov 24, 2014

By Jan H. Hommen

TRENDS IN MINE FINANCE Reviewing historical trends may help in dealing with future funding strategies. The first trend is the increase in the use of debt to fund corporate America. Surprisingly, when comparing that with other corporates in the global marketplace, the U.S. does not look too poorly. Japanese, in particular, but also German companies, are much more leveraged than their U.S. counterparts. Note that in Japan and Germany the government and the consumer have shown substantial restraints when it comes to credit. Not so in the U.S. where the savings rate (4%) is much lower than that in Japan (20%) and in Germany (14%). As a result, the cost of leverage is substantially lower in Japan and in Germany than in the U.S. Lower debt costs in these countries allows one to obtain more of it for the same price. The close relationships between financial institutions, corporations and governments in Japan and Germany also make the risk of leverage more bearable and understandable. Also note that interest rate volatility in these countries is more subdued. The investor base in common stock is also changing. Private pension funds have been net sellers of equities during the last few years while public pension funds have been net buyers. Individuals are basically out of the market. It is estimated that over $330 billion of equity was retired in the U.S. through 1986-1988. The reasons are well known: restructurings, buy-backs, takeovers, mergers, and buy-outs. This de-equitization is likely to continue as the cost of equity capital is higher than the cost of debt capital, even on a before-tax basis. Because there has been no market for equity since October 19, 1987, junk bonds have replaced equity capital in the corporate finance structure. The non-investor-grade borrower has access to the public markets through high-yielding debt securities that often look like senior equity. Deregulation has also provided 24-hour markets; securitization can now liquify assets that before were rusting on balance sheets; information processing and communication tools give facts that are instantaneously available, creating the need for products to cover risk and exposures unknown before the start of the information and technology explosion. Thus we now have swaps, options, futures, options on futures, caps, as well as program trading, portfolio insurance, index funds, etc. Globalization will be unstoppable. Today's environment demands it. Corporations are now global competitors, even though they may have never shipped a product off-shore. Boundaries are disappearing and impediments have been removed. Stocks can be issued in a global offering with distribution in all major financial centers of the world. The high leverage of Japanese companies has made common stocks very scarce, which with the high savings rate, makes equity capital inexpensive in Japan. If markets were perfect everyone would issue stock in Tokyo and buy it back in New York. This would certainly stop the bleeding on the balance of payments. With the deficit balance of payments in America, it is no surprise that the cost of money is expensive here. The risk-return relationship on U.S. equity is not favorable enough to appeal to Japanese equity investors. The Tokyo-market, helped by a stronger yen, surpassed New York as the most important equity market in the world. The question is, will the Tokyo market hold up when Japanese domestic consumption increases at the expense of savings? In the U.S. debt markets, the plain vanilla debenture is making a comeback after a period of absence. Commercial paper has replaced short term bank borrowings for working capital funding by larger corporations. The banks have made an interesting comeback with loan sale programs that will continue to attract borrowers. There will be a continuing

Jan 1, 1990

By Joseph E. Pogue

FOR a number of years the petroleum department of The Chase National Bank has been making a continuing study of the financial aspects of thirty oil companies. (See Pogue and Coqueron, "Financial Analysis of Thirty Oil Companies," pamphlet, The Chase National Bank, November 1945, for data covering eleven years, 1934-1944, and the list of the companies making up the group. See also "Capital Employed in the Petroleum Industry," by the same authors, M&M, November 1944.1 This group represents a large sample of theAmerican petroleum industry, covering about two thirds of the business. Certain aspects of this study concern the capital employed in crude oil production, the main features of which arc presented in this paper.

Jan 1, 1946

By G. S. Barry

INVESTIGATIONS to date have shown that, should there be the need or the appropriate economic stimulus, Canada's mineral resources are sufficiently extensive to allow considerable expansion of its non-fuel mineral industry, during the remaining part of this century and possibly beyond (1, 2). The availability of sufficient capital will be one of the critical factors which will determine whether this potential will be fulfilled. The following analysis centers on the capital requirements of the Canadian non-fuel mineral industry under one set of basic assumptions of capacity growth, cost of new and replacement capacity, rates of depletion and depreciation of mines and plant, and the cost of exploration and infrastructure. Mindful of the fact that exploration and development will not thrive in Canada unless a very positive approach is taken, the writers make no apologies for being "optimistic" about long-term production prospects. Furthermore, in the event that world demand does escalate as anticipated and the forecast realistically attainable levels of Canadian production are not reached, then Canada will not have reaped the full range of economic benefits available, and opportunities will have been lost. Projections for Canadian production between 1976 and 2000 are essentially based on the forecast published in the 1974 paper, "Towards a Mineral Policy for Canada - Opportunities for Choice (3), with some updating on the basis of recent developments.

Jan 1, 1977