Search Documents

By Peter Broad

"Extracting any metal, especially specialty metals and rare earth elements, requires an in-depth analysis of the costs and potential revenue as well as a due diligence study of other stakeholder interests. Rare earth projects are generally in the billion dollar US range or above, and thus failure to accurately predict any loss of revenue caused by impurities within the product or additional effluent treatment costs can destroy an otherwise viable study. Two prime sources of input impurity are considered: impurities in the material feed and from reagents. The effect of these impurities factor on both the product (in reduced revenue) and on residual “tailings” that may incur additional unforeseen costs.INTRODUCTION“Truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident” – Arthur SchopenhauerThe era of unscoped, unbudgeted construction ended about 150 years ago. Today’s engineer must design with confidence; but do so amidst proprietary secrets and unfamiliar pollutants, which present a myriad of interesting challenges. Is it possible to build a viable rare earth plant to a realistic budget, without destroying that which we cherish? Some see this as contradictory but in reality it is the only viable option.WHEN GOOD PROJECTS FAILWithout rare earths the Copenhagen agreement might be null and void. Running a wind turbine with a 30 tonne conventional magnet requires some hefty engineering and prohibitive investment. Despite their ‘Green metal’ applications, production of rare earths have created environmental nightmares, as Folger stated in 2011 when visiting Baotou, or has Jaing Mainheng who has been quoted by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 6 Jan 2013. This comment is not a criticism of China; the details are from a 2012 white paper published by the Chinese Government that initiated a $6 billion environmental clean-up. Nor is China unique; other plants have had problems as well. There were toxic leaks in the 1990s from Mountain Pass, and the Mitsubishi Bukit Merah Plant (built in Malaysia in 1958) required a $100 million clean-up."

Jan 1, 2016

By John A. Church

AT a time when the treatment of gold and silver ores by fusion, in opposition to the mill-process, is attracting so much attention in this country, it may be useful to consider what is done in a well-conducted foreign work. For this purpose I will ask the reader to accompany me to Lend, in Austria, a small but thoroughly organized

Jan 1, 1873

By Ellsworth Daggett

THE ore smelted in the Winnamuck furnace during the year 1872 consisted, for the most part, of oxidized ores from the Winnamuck mine, only sixty tons of outside ore (from the Spanish mine) having been smelted. The latter, like the principal Winnamuck ore, was oxidized or so-called carbonate ore. There was mixed with these oxidized ores three hundred to four hundred tons, or 7 to 10 per cent. of galena, some of which was mined with the oxidized ore, while a part was mined separately from the lower portion of the mine, and afterwards mixed with the ore, with a view of preventing the formation of deposits of metallic iron in the furnaces. The average assay in silver of all the ore handled was 51.46 oz. per ton, most of it existing as chloride of silver. The lead contents were 34.98 per cent., all, or nearly all, in the form of carbonate of lead. The relative amount of silver is not at all constant, the best silver ore often being poorest in lead. The predominant gangue was silica, several determinations of which have been made on representative samples, yielding in three such samples 26, 38, and 58 per cent. silica, the latter test being ore containing but little lead. The average contents in silica are about 35 per cent., with 6 to 7 per cent. sesquioxide of iron, and small quantities of alumina and lime. Mechanically, the ore was very fine, and so thoroughly disintegrated that it presented few distin¬guishing characteristics, rendering sorting or separating of ore from waste difficult, and often impracticable. Experiments on a small scale have been tried, with a view to separate the silica by washing; but these were unsuccessful, as the finest slime, requiring a long time to settle in still water, contained a large amount of silver; and on a careful sizing and washing of the sands and coarser parts, the silver contents were found to be less dependent upon specific gravity

Jan 1, 1874

By Bell I. F

In 1985, ZC Mines (now Pasminco South) had been unprofitable for some years due to a combination of high operating costs, low metal prices, low head grade and an aging and inadequate mining infrastructure. However, the resource of metal in the ground was still of world class, even after some 80 years of mining. A major study, which was to be of two years duration, was therefore commenced to establish a practical and profitable long term mining strategy and to cost the infrastructure options needed for its support and thus form the justification for a capital expenditure program to take the mine profitably into the 21st century and its second century of operation. This paper discusses the rationale behind the methodology adopted and the nature of the results achieved in one aspect of the study - the determination of the mineable resource and the relationship between the head grade/quantity of the economically mineable resource and the variables of cut-off grade, cost structure, annual production rate and metal prices/exchange rates. The basis of the study was the designing of some 5000 scopes to mine out the entire resource for a range of cut- off grades and the assembly of the detailed physical data thus obtained in a stope-by-stope data base for financial and other analysis. Those scopes which were shown to be economically mineable were then scheduled for two optimum annual production/cut-off grade/metal price combinations to provide life-of-mine cost and value of production cash flows.

Jan 1, 1992

By L. C. Snider

During the past few years a number of large and highly productive oil fields have been discovered in the United States. The immediate oversupply which has resulted, together with the circumstances under which the new fields have been operated, has created exaggerated impressions of the importance and magnitude of these fields. Statements as to the many years during which individual fields could supply the entire demand of certain areas, as to the overwhelming effect of these fields on the industry, and as to their greater size compared with any of the older fields have become so common as to attract little attention. For example, East Texas is commonly considered as the "greatest oil field" and a review of the development of the field for 1931 is so headed in one of the leading trade journals.' East Texas is unquestionably a very great oil field. However, some students of the field have estimated its ultimate recovery at about one billion barrels, and the Bradford field discovered in 1875 is also estimated, by competent engineers, to have about a billion barrels still recoverable by water drive, in addition to more than 300,000,-000 bbl. it has already produced. If East Texas should produce the two or three billion barrels assigned to it by more optimistic estimators, it will, though considerably greater than Bradford, still fall far short of it in importance to the industry. A reasonable doubt also exists as to whether East Texas will exceed the Midway-Sunset field which has produced about 720,000,000 bbl. and still has important reserves. Again, in importance to the industry, Midway-Sunset has been greater than East Texas can ever be. Relative Importance of Oil Fields The principal purpose of this study is to compare, on the basis of their importance to the industry, a considerable number of the major fields which have been developed in the United States. Some remarks are also made as to the estimates of reserves in certain fields now in course of development, since the writer believes that the conditions under which these fields are operated lead to estimates of recoverable reserves which

Jan 1, 1933

By H. J. Struth

Economic law was accorded considerably more recognition by the oil industry last year than perhaps ever before. While proration was undoubtedly given added impetus in 1931, and the list of proponents of unit operation was noticeably lengthened, predominant evidence plainly shows that the functioning of economic laws dominated collective efforts to reduce the excessive above-ground supply of petroleum. Crude oil production was reduced more than 48,000,000 bbl. last year; imports from other parts of the world were substantially lower; stocks of crude were drawn upon to the extent of nearly 48,000,000 bbl.; domestic gasoline demand increased 2 per cent—and yet, prices of petroleum and its products were at the lowest levels in many years. To say that the ills of the oil industry during 1931 were due to the general depression that was felt in all other lines is tantamount to attaching an air of uncertainty to a group of commodities that have been proved to be an ever increasing necessity, even in times of depression. TO say that the potential productivity of proven oil-producing areas has been responsible for the unsatisfactory state of affairs last year, and now, is to admit failure to carry out the principles designed to control production in accordance with the limits prescribed by demand. In fact, there is no reason why a large proven potential supply of oil should not be considered a valuable asset to the industry; an assurance against future needs; a stabilizing influence in building up confidence in the ability of the industry to supply this and future generations with fuel and lubricant requirements at reasonable prices. At any rate, an assured future supply of oil should be interpreted to the public to mean that the oil industry is a legitimate, progressive industry, and not a group of prospectors madly searching for "liquid gold." There has been a great deal of romance connected with the history of the oil business—so much that the public has come to associate the word "oil" with untold riches. However, the financial statements of 1931 will furnish conclusive proof to the contrary. Too much oil, too many refineries, too many filling stations, too much capital invested; these and other "too muches" and "too manys" have perhaps been given more publicity than necessary. We seldom hear these

Jan 1, 1932

By H. J. Struth

Conditions in the gasoline market undoubtedly influence the oil industry's general economic situation to a greater degree than perhaps any other single factor. No matter how efficiently the oil industry manages to conduct its producing operations, a drop in the price of gasoline exerts definite pressure upon the posted price of crude oil in the field. Efforts of the recent past have shown that profits from the producing division of the industry are closely tied in with the course of the gasoline market. When refinery gasoline prices are depressed, as they have been during recent months, it is utterly impossible for purchasers to maintain a crude market that is commensurate with the cost of production, regardless of how well balanced the producing situation may be. In fact, the producer can no longer regard his operations in the light of an independent unit of the oil industry, since his financial well-being is directly dependent upon the well-being of the refiner. Because gasoline is the principal constituent of crude oil, it is obvious that profitable refining operations can only be maintained through profitable gasoline markets. Likewise, when the price of gasoline influences a profit for the refinery it also influences the prosperity of the producer, through the advent of higher and more profitable posted prices for crude oil in the field. Financial results for 1932 showed material improvement over the preceding year, primarily because the price of gasoline was maintained at levels somewhat above those of 1931. Consequently, the producer was able to record improvement in the crude market, through a somewhat higher level of posted prices. While effective methods of prora-t,ion of crude production are given credit for the advance recorded in the crude market last year, it is also a fact that the advent of higher prices for gasoline had a direct influence upon the posted prices of crude oil. For example, when gasoline was sold in Group 3 at 2 3/4 a gallon in June and July, 1931, the price of 36-gravity Mid-Continent crude was down to its lowest point of only 18c a barrel. As refinery prices advanced, however, there was a corresponding advance in posted prices of crude oil. Thus, when Group 3 gasoline commanded a price of 5c a gallon

Jan 1, 1933

By L. F. Terry, H. K. Ihrig, D. J. Sabin, Ralph E. Davis

This paper presents the results of a study of the comparative values of the several fuels commonly used by industrial plants. It shows that the energy actually recovered from any fuel and turned into useful work is dependent upon several factors: (1) the total energy available in the fuel, (2) energy losses resulting from combustion reactions and (3) energy losses dependent upon the mechanics of the firing operation. The chemistry of combustion and the losses resulting therefrom are discussed. The Advantages and disadvantages of the several mechanical methods of firing and the resulting heat losses in each are developed. Data obtained from several typical fuel operations, where careful records have been maintained, are presented to show that the practical results in the actual operation are in harmony with the theoretical results developed in the earlier part of this paper. Water power and solid, liquid or gaseous fuels are at present the only commercial sources of energy. The economic utilization of any one of them depends, in the final analysis, on the cost of energy per unit of finished product to which the energy is applied. The location of the plant utilizing the particular fuel chosen is a large factor in the original choice. The cost per unit at its original natural source, or even in its delivered form, is not always the final measure of its worth. The use of electricity as a source of energy illustrates this to the extreme. Electric current produced from water power is very cheap in certain localities. In Norway, current is sold as low as ½0# per kw-hr., while in dry cells it costs as much as $10 per kw-hr. Yet the sale of dry cells is a large business. The selling price of gas also varies widely. In some localities natural gas for the manufacture of carbon black sells for as low as $0.02 per million British thermal units, while artificial gas for domestic purposes sells for as high as $6 per million B.t.u. Obviously the cost per unit of energy is not the final determining factor in its purchase. Any discussion of the economic utilization of fuels must include costs in relation to the units of finished material manufactured. In large central power generating stations, this is the over-all cost per kilowatt-hour, and in ceramic firing the cost per unit of finished product of a certain quality is the criterion of economic utilization.

Jan 1, 1931

By Sidney A. Swensrud

Much has been said and written about uneconomic and evil marketing practices in the oil industry, including such factors as loaning of equipment, price cutting and secret prices, commercial discounts, abuses of credit cards and coupon books, and so forth. It is not my purpose here to add to the discussion of those problems, but rather to attempt a discussion of some of the more basic factors in the general distribution economies of the industry. The economics of distribution in the oil industry cannot be regarded apart from the general economics of the industry as a whole. The attempt to regard them as separate has led many people into the fallacy of believing that the responsibility for the apparent evils in the marketing end of the business lay entirely at the door of the marketing end. Such a view fails to take cognizance of many underlying factors; we can only expect to understand the distribution economics of the industry if we understand its general economics. We must realize also that the oil industry today is essentially the gasoline industry. The oil industry may be said to have begun about 60 years ago. At the outset it was concerned chiefly with the manufacture and sale of kerosene, lubricating oils and greases. Gasoline was then a most obnoxious by-product. The early oil-marketing company was engaged almost exclusively in refining and marketing—it did not concern itself with production but bore the relation to it merely of a purchaser. It may be said that the urge of marketing development in those days, therefore, came from the refining and marketing end of the business. The raw material had not yet begun to exert its enormous pressure, nor had the producer of crude oil acquired a direct interest in the sale of the ultimate finished products. Since then great changes have taken place. With the development of the automobile came a vast new demand for the raw material from which gasoline could be made. No longer could the refining and marketing companies be indifferent to the source of that raw material, particularly in view of the pessimistic outlook then presented as to the probable quantity of oil in existence. And despite the complete overturning of those early estimates, made before the bounty of nature and the skill of

Jan 1, 1931

By Sidney A. Swensrud

About a year ago, I attempted in a general way to trace the origin and development of some of the marketing problems of the petroleum industry, and to describe certain trends which it then seemed possible to foresee. To summarize briefly, it was pointed out that the consumption of gasoline, after increasing for more than a decade at an almost unbelievable rate, was slowing down, but that the two factors which determine the supply of gasoline —-namely, the production of crude oil and the percentage of gasoline derived therefrom—were tending steadily to mount. It was suggested that, while the increase in gasoline outlets began with and probably was justified at the start by the rapidly increasing demand, long after all reasonable requirements as to number of outlets had been met the number continued to increase—if anything, at a still more rapid rate—because by that time the overproduction of crude had begun to exert an impelling urge upon the owners of that crude to seek assured outlets for it in the form of gasoline. As more and more companies became integrated all the way from crude oil to marketing, there took place an ever-increasing competition among them, not only for the existing outlets but for new ones. The wide margin between wholesale cost and retail price, which is characteristic of the early stages of most new industries, persisted in the oil industry longer than in most industries, for various reasons. The existence of that wide margin provided in large measure the means of attracting new outlets, for as the gallonage per outlet declined with the increasing number of outlets, competing companies simply offered the dealers a larger part of the total margin. The very nature of competition suggests that such a process would continue until practically all of the available margin was thus given away, and such was clearly the tendency. It was a system that in turn produced increasing marketing expense per gallon on account of the diluted gallonage per outlet; this increased expense might seem to have provided a justification for continuing wide margins. Economics, like its parent, nature, however, progresses by mutations and so began to throw out new types of marketers, in the form of tank-car service stations, cut-price jobbers, and the like—heretics or

Jan 1, 1932

By J. E. Pogue

It is the purpose of this paper to attempt to establish three theses which may be stated in advance as follows: 1. The crude oil potential is the accumulation of surplus initial production. 2. The crude oil potential is a semi-inventory and therefore is a causal factor in the price of crude petroleum. 3. The price of crude petroleum no longer correlates with above-ground inventories but does correlate with corrected inventories (i. e., above-ground storage plus the inventory equivalent of the crude oil potential). The factors and principles set forth in this study are thought to yield an approximate answer to a number of questions of active interest in the petroleum industry today, to wit: (a) How long would be required to eliminate the potential if all drilling ceased? (b) What would be the indicated crude oil production of the United States in 1931 if proration were abandoned? (c) What economic change would be necessary to warrant a higher price for crude oil? Definitions For the purposes of this study the following definitions may be stated: The crude oil potential in the United States is the quantity of oil that all the oil wells would make the first 24 hr. if permitted to flow unrestricted. The surplus potential is the above-mentioned quantity minus the volume currently produced. Initial production is the first day's unrestricted flow of an oil well. Aggregate initial production is the sum of the initials of all wells completed during a year. Surplus initial is the initial not needed to bring production into balance with demand. The surplus initial is equal to the crude oil potential minus the current rate of production. The annual production-equivalent of the crude oil potential is the volume of oil that would be produced in one year if all wells were permitted

Jan 1, 1931

By H. J. Struth

In these trying times of proration and low oil prices, it is decidedly necessary for all branches of the petroleum industry to accord full recognition to the economic phenomena that contribute to its varying state of welfare. Perhaps no other single factor has a more important bearing upon the general oil situation than the supply and demand of gasoline. Year after year, the records have shown that the degree of prosperity or depression accompanying the industry's developments has been to a large extent influenced by the degree of balance maintamed between the supply and demand of gasoline. More and more it is being realized within the industry that equilibrium between the supply and demand of gasoline forms the basic structure of crude and product market values and, consequently, the deciding factor in the financial results of the industry as a whole. The influence of the gasoline situation upon the market and financial structure of the petroleum industry was effectively demonstrated during 1930, when excess accumulation of gasoline undermined not only the refined oil market but the crude market as well. In fact, it was a top-heavy gasoline situation that defeated the realization of benefits that might have accrued from an otherwise favorable statistical position in the producing branch of the industry. Indicative of this is the fact that crude oil production was curtailed to the extent of 98,323,000 bbl. last year, while refinery runs to stills were maintained at an excessive rate until late in the year, creating an excess gasoline production of 6,663,000 bbl. above actual requirements. Nevertheless, the movement to curtail refinery operations during the closing months of the year prevented a far worse situation, although it came too late to turn the ebbing momentum of the general oil market. Despite the severe depression of the market values that accompanied 1930 developments, it can be said that the results attained during the closing months of the year, in the direction of production control, marked a decisive turn in the industry's economic affairs. In fact, a review of the oil situation from every angle points definitely to a better general understanding and recognition of the workings of the economic law of supply and demand. As a result, the year closed with crude production in

Jan 1, 1931

By A. B. Bowman

The 1963 Jackling Award lecturer describes the founding of Banner Mining Co. and its trials and tribulations before becoming an established firm. Such aspects as geological description of Banner mining areas, history of exploration and production, areas of present interest to the company and research work conducted by the company are included. Several years ago a wealthy Chinese business friend of mine purchased an interest in a proposed oil well to be drilled a great distance from his home. A few months later it came in as a producer and proved to be a huge success and materially added to his resources. I asked him why a man of his wealth should be so lucky in a venture outside his sphere of knowledge when most people of modest means never seemed to get ahead. His answer was, "Fat Hoy takes a chance." Even though this was his answer, I knew from my association with him that there were other tempering considerations which Mr. Hoy applied before making up his mind to enter any transaction. First, he was a cautious individual. He was also a great believer in details and insisted on knowing everything possible about a situation, and finally, he was what we call a very solid individual with good basic instincts and judgment. This philosophy of Mr. Hoy may be applied to most any business but especially to those engaged in a search for natural resources such as mining where great risks are involved. This article concerns events in the history and growth of Banner Mining Co., with which I have been associated for 27 years in capacities from mine surveyor to vice president. Mr. Hoy's philosophy has played a significant role in the exploration projects of this company over the years, but what is more important, the officers, directors, and controlling interests in Banner have been aggressive in their search for ore reserves. THE BIRTH OF BANNER Banner Mining Company was incorporated in September 1935 by a group of Oklahoma and Texas oil men for the purpose of exploring and developing the Bonney-Manilla mines at Lordsburg, N.M. These properties had a history of intermittent production since the first ore discoveries as far back as 1870. Most of the production from the district has come from four mines, namely, the Eighty-Five, the Atwood, the Bonney-Manilla, and the Misers Chest. The last two are now owned by Banner Mining. The Eighty-Five mine operated between 1885 and 1931, and production totalled 1,494,287 tons averaging 0.11 oz of gold per ton, 1.23 oz of silver per ton, and 2.80% copper. The vein extended for a distance of about 3000 ft northeast and was mined to a depth of 1650 ft. The Atwood mine, adjoining the Eighty-Five mine, to date has been of lesser importance as a producer, but it has been operating for several years producing high silica flux ores for a smelter. Production totalled 352,828 tons up to January 1, 1962 From the Bonney-Manilla and Misers Chest mines, owned by Banner, production through 1961 totalled 2,006,343 tons with an average grade as mined of 0.0192 oz of gold per ton, 0.760 oz of silver per ton and 2.63% copper. Banner built a 150-tpd flotation mill in 1936 after almost a year of development on the 600 level of the Bonney mine. After less than one year's operation, it became apparent that the 150-tpd rate was not sufficient to make a reasonable profit due to the marginal grade ores. The low tenor of the ore, mainly chalco-pyrite in a highly siliceous gangue, made mandatory the close control of costs in order to make ends meet. A 300-tpd unit was added to the mill in 1937, and it is still the operating unit today. The clean sulfides presented no problems in milling. A metallurgist doing research on it at the time stated that the copper minerals seemed to have a built-in desire to float. Mill recovery of copper throughout the 27 years of operation has averaged 96.23%. A PERIOD OF FORCED GROWTH World War II brought many hardships to Banner. Labor and supply shortages caused drastic curtailment in development work. Rapidly rising costs far outdistanced any relief from pegged prices which we received from Government agencies. Finally, a branch of the Government asked us to stop all devel-

Jan 1, 1963

By H. J. Struth

The benefits of proration of oil production were perhaps more concretely realized in 1932 than at any time since the oil industry adopted nation-wide production control. Reduced output of crude petroleum, which brought the daily average of the United States down to approximately 2,000,000 bbl. from a peak in 1931 of more than 2,600,000, had a telling effect on the trend of oil prices. Mid-Continent crude was advanced in price from 776, for 36-gravity oil, to $1.04 a barrel. California crude, of 26-gravity at Signal Hill, moved forward from 736 to 976 a barrel. Pennsylvania crude, the only exception to the upward trend, rose in price from $1.82 per barrel to $2.02, only to react to $1.72. This was due to local conditions which necessitated an adjustment to overcome competition from other areas of the United States. East Texas continued to exert a far-reaching influence on the crude and gasoline market during 1932. Despite the fact that oil prices were advanced in most fields, large quantities of oil were produced in East Texas in violation of state proration orders, and sold in the market at prices considerably below official postings. This created competitive conditions in the gasoline market that were felt by all refining centers of the United States. The quantity of gasoline produced from cheap East Texas crude was not large, but the volume was sufficient to influence prices in practically all sections of the country. Thus, while the industry's' economic situation showed visible improvement statistically, the unreported and unseen statistics originating in East Texas proved to be an insurmountable obstacle to the economic betterment that was otherwise apparently justified. Somewhat surprising to many was the fact that gasoline consumption was maintained within 10 per cent of the preceding year. Domestic consumption showed only a net decline under 1931 of about 8.5 per cent; exports dropped in volume to the extent of about 23 per cent. As a matter of fact, domestic gasoline consumption was only about 1.4 per cent less than it was in the predepression year of 1929. Exports, however,

Jan 1, 1933

By Armando M. Lago

Secular and cyclical patterns of postwar sources and uses of funds of the mineral sector are analyzed. A simultaneous equation behavior model of sources and uses of funds is developed for both mining firms and integrated producers, and these models were put through the task of predicting the financial and expenditure be-havior of mineral corporations in response to mergers and changes in investment tax credits and depletion allowances. Finally, the quantitative analysis methodology is applied to the analysis of optimum capital structure of mining corporations. The postwar changes that have occurred in the expenditure and financial behavior of mineral corporations are reviewed, particularly the relative importance of factors that affect the industry's supply and demand for funds. This quantitative statistical investigation of factors affecting sources and uses of funds of mineral corporations is achieved through the formulation of a simultaneous equation model of sources and uses of funds. After a description of the study sample, the postwar cyclical and secular financial behavior of mineral corporations is analyzed in detail. An econometric model of mineral corporate financial behavior is formulated. This model is then estimated and reviewed. Policy issues regarding depletion allowances, investment tax credits, and industrial organization of the mineral sector are discussed. Finally, the optimum financial structure of mining firms is discussed and the effect of corporate financial structure on the mining corporations' average cost of capital is analyzed.

Jan 1, 1971

By E. B. Swanson

Frequent reference has been made to the increased domestic gasoline demand recorded for 1931. This increase was in the neighborhood of 7,000,000 bbl. Although smaller relatively than that to which the oil industry had become accustomed by virtue of the experience of preceding years, the increase was of substantial amount, particularly at a time when any increase at all could be regarded with eminent satisfaction. Less has been said, however, of the 18,000,000 bbl. decline in gasoline shipments to territories and foreign countries. When the loss of business outside the United States is combined with the domestic increase, there results a net loss of some 11,000,000 bbl. in total gasoline demand. The gain of 2 per cent in domestic sales gives way to a loss of 2.5 per cent in total domestic and foreign sales. The United States actually has been losing ground in the international gasoline market since 1924, when shipments from this country equaled 72 per cent of the gasoline shipments from the leading gasoline-producing countries of the world. A loss in relative standing was recorded with each succeeding year. As long, however, as gasoline shipments showed an actual increase, the loss in relative standing was of little concern. Foreign producing centers annually supplied an increasing share of the foreign gasoline markets, but, until the past year, the demand abroad continued to increase at a pace which could accommodate all of the increased output of foreign plants and yet require increasing quantities from the United States. It was not until 1931 that the various factors were combined so as to produce an actual and substantial decrease in the foreign demand for United States gasoline. Consumption in foreign countries generally declined, while the output of foreign refineries and the foreign manufacture of substitute fuels continued to increase. From our own viewpoint, this meant a loss of some 18,000,000 bbl. of gasoline business in foreign countries, one-half of it probably due to the lowering in foreign demand and the other half to the increased output of foreign refineries and the increased utilization of substitute fuels.

Jan 1, 1932

By A. Weiss, W. A. Coster

The search for ore is characterized by a great variety of uncertainties, each of which can be resolved by obtaining information at a cost. Three exploration stages may be distinguished in which information can be obtained, based on inherently different cost structure: 1) the reconnaissance or scanning stage, 2) the examination or screening stage and 3) the project stage. This exploration sequence would roughly coincide with replies to questions as to: where, how, why and how much. As complete information in each stage is too costly to acquire, we must assess the probability that adequate information will be furnished by a limited amount of effort and attempt to maximize the expected value of ore to be found for a given exploration expenditure. Several problems are discussed relative to the mathematical formulation and possible computer procedures for determining the optimum allocation of a total exploration effort. Based on the available literature possible solutions to this problem are indicated. When scanning through published literature on mineral exploration, it seems at first that there is little room for substantial and systematic improvements in the efficiency with which the problem of discovery of new ore deposits is presently being handled by large organizations active in exploration. It appears equally difficult to offer something relevantly new which could generate a break-through in exploration thinking and cause a marked improvement in the ratio of successful undertakings to the total exploration projects started. On the other hand, a number of experts in recent years have urged that the problems in prospecting be analyzed in a more skillful and sophisticated manner than in the past. Their thesis is based mainly on the premise that the cost of finding mineral deposits will increase with increasing technical difficulties. In present large-scale exploration ventures, especially in those regions where outcrops and immediately visible geologic evidence are scarce, older methods of prospecting are increasingly being replaced by more indirect and systematic geophysical and geochemical methods with more emphasis on correct statistical design of exploration patterns. It is perhaps the oil industry which has made the greatest strides in developing statistically, well justified patterns in its search for oil; possibly because oil seepages, as indicators of the presence of oil, left off at an earlier point in time than did outcrops as indicators of base metals. Among the pioneers in the field of statistics and operations research, as applied to mineral exploration, the excellent works of Allais, Slichter, Koop-man, Mickey, de Guhnin, Krumbein, Griffith, Sichel, Krige, de Wijs, and Matheron may be mentioned. It should, however, be pointed out that three subjects of basic importance to the allocation of exploration efforts have so far received only scant attention in published literature, even by the aforementioned authors. In the first place, a more precise definition of the object of the search, i.e., a minimum-size orebody, seems to be outstanding. Secondly, a decision model is not a widely-discussed subject. Thirdly, no concentrated attempt so far seems to have been made to establish probabilities of the occurrence of economic deposits on a regional scale and to arrive at a slightly more accurate knowledge of the probability laws governing the deposition of ore. It is not the purpose of this paper to create new order in the complexity of uncertainties in which our decision processes in exploration necessarily have to be conducted. Rather, we intend to highlight some of the outstanding, hitherto unmapped territory, where diligent compilation and a utilization of present and historic data may statistically improve our chances of success. We hope that the contribution of this paper will lie in bringing allocation problems into better focus and in increasing the mineral industry's realization of the magnitude of the factors involved. THE MINIMUM-SIZE OREBODY The concept of target specifications for what constitute a minimum-size orebody in exploration is a rather variable one and depends to some extent on

Jan 1, 1963

By Albert J. McIntosh

In discussing the petroleum products situation the first thing that comes to mind is "what is happening to gasoline." Is the consumption increasing? How is the export market? What about imports? Are stocks on hand too high? Have we produced too much? This paper will attempt to answer these questions. Consumption of gasoline (motor fuel) in the United States in spite of the depression and the chaotic conditions of many industries has increased during 1931 about 2 per cent over 1930. This favorable factor was offset by a severe contraction in exports, which fell off about 30 per cent from 1930. This drop in exports was so large that very little more export business was done than in 1926 or 1927. Taking all demand combined, there was a decrease from the peak year of 1930 of nearly 11,000,000 bbl., amounting to slightly over 2 per cent. The units of the industry, though, should have expected some decrease and governed themselves accordingly. Let us see what they did. They reduced imports over 3,000,000 bbl., which helped. Production was cut 3,000,000 bbl., but this was not enough, so that stocks increased 1,800,000 bbl. whereas during the previous year stocks were reduced 2,500,000 bbl. It is apparent, therefore, that something was done to keep the industry in balance in regard to gasoline, but not enough. If the year had ended on Sept. 30, we could have said that production had been cut 19,000,000 bbl. and stocks had been reduced from the previous year, but the excessive production during the last three months of the year changed everything. It is a strange thing and worthy of note that the price of gasoline fell to its lowest levels when apparently the greatest improvement was being made, and that during the last quarter of the year prices started to improve, when, in spite of an improvement in total demand which approximated 1930, an excessive production caused an uneconomic condition to set in. Stocks on hand on Dec. 31 were unquestionably too high, possibly 10,000,000 bbl. more than was needed for a strong condition to obtain. It seems almost unbelievable that the industry would continue to produce

Jan 1, 1932

By W. A. Riggs

In a single year the total transportation cost equals nearly 30 pct of the value of mineral commodities, the largest single cost from the deposit to consumer. The magnitude of this economic factor calls for more complete understanding of cost and operational problems between producer and carrier than now exists. Details are given of the costs of providing transportation as well as freight rates for selling transportation. In 1958, transportation of mineral commodities in the United States required 600 billion ton-miles to move 1 3/4 billion tons of products of mines comprising solid fuels, crude oil, industrial minerals and rocks, and ores. Possibly 17 pct was handled by more than one mode of transport, since combinations of several modes of transport may, at times, achieve better service/cost results than any single mode. Total transportation cost of nearly $5 billion equaled roughly 30 pct of the value of the mineral commodities, the largest single cost from the mineral deposit to the consumer. The tremendous magnitude of this transportation undertaking demands much more complete understanding than now exists between mineral producers and carriers about the economic and operational problems of each other. A substantial portion of the daily work of the writer is spent in trying to act as a combination interpreter and catalyst between potential shippers and carriers, hoping to direct both to points of mutual understanding and advantage. For the purpose of this paper, it is necessary to ask mining people to accept some terminology and to try to appreciate the mental approach of the freight rate making people of the carriers. This paper will consider costs of providing transportation as well as freight rates for selling transportation—although these are fields of limited certainty. There are no accurate statistical breakdowns for all modes of transport and types of carriers indicating commodities, volume of traffic, distances, costs, and rates. Much information is available for railroads, and some for the regulated portions of air, motor, pipeline, and water transportation. Unregulated carriers, handling about half of the transportation of products of mines, are not required to report, and very little is known of their activities. Figures used herein are national in scope, unless otherwise indicated, and have generally been derived from Interstate Commerce Commission reports and files. Tonnage figures have been reduced to net tons of 2000 lb. The very generalized comparison of average mileage freight rate levels for various modes of transport provided by Fig. 1 affords advantageous perspective for the entire field of transportation costs. Dashed guide lines show cents per ton-mile, and dotted guide lines show percentage of first class railroad freight rate. While costs of other than railroad transportation more nearly follow constant cents per ton-mile functions, costs of railroad transportation show characteristic taper, or decrease in cents per-ton mile with increasing length of haul. This fundamental difference in cost is due largely to the fact that railroads and pipelines provide their own fully taxed roadway facilities while highway, waterway, and air carriers use government-provided tax-free roadway at no cost other than fuel, license, and certain excise taxes. Thus railroad and pipeline transportation might be said to carry heavy threshold costs in addition to those transportation costs which are directly variable with ton miles of transportation produced. The original basis of railroad freight rate structures lies in the classification of all articles of commerce into railroad class ralings ranging from 7 to 40 pct of first class (100 pct) rate level, dependent on value, hazard, loading characteristics, service requirements, and whether carload or less than carload. Classification tables and mileage-based (but arbitrarily grouped), rate scales are published as tariffs subject to approval by regulatory bodies. Used together, these determine class rates in cents per 100 lb between points in the U. S. Where local commercial or operating conditions render it advantageous for carriers to depart from

Jan 1, 1961

By Francis Cameron

Gloomy predictions that domestic mineral reserves are approaching exhaustion are unwarranted and may be harmful, this author contends. Specific mineral forecasting errors in the Paley Report are cited to support this contention, and steps that can be taken to insure a progressive mineral industry capable of keeping pace with the major raw material needs of the nation through advancing technology are suggested. Mining is both exciting and rewarding —although at times somewhat frustrating— and we all can have real pride in our industry, in its people, and in its accomplishments. It is, however, with concern that I have noted a deterioration in this Country in what might be called mining's stature and in the growth of a belief in many quarters that our mineral reserves are rapidly approaching exhaustion. In other words, there is a popular image that we are fast becoming a "have not" nation in many respects and that the domestic mining industry can no longer be considered, in the vernacular of Wall Street to offer much in the way of "growth potential." I do not subscribe to this hypothesis, nor do I be-li4ve that the record of the mining industry bears this out. However, let me add that we can, in time, talk ourselves into this frame of mind and we can hasten the day when this very well might come about by unnecessary and unwise legislation or regulation. My remarks today are basically designed to give my reasons for refuting this negative philosophy and to review our record. With your help, I know we can improve our image, and the public's recognition of our industry's peculiar problems. The progress of our civilization over the centuries has been fundamentally based upon proper use of raw materials, both agricultural and mineral, and upon energy, human or otherwise. As the standard of living has progressed century by century, the demands for mineral raw materials have increased in an irregular, but steadily rising progression. Fortunately, those minerals on which we depend most, i.e., iron, coal, petroleum, copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc have been neither too difficult to find nor to process into useful form. Iron, the most useful of all metals, is present in various amounts in most rock types and soils. Gold, seemingly the most generally desired (but certainly not the most useful of all metals), occurs in sea water in a far greater total tonnage than has been won from all of the world's known gold mines. If the latter is true, then why do we not see large installations treating sea water for the recovery of its gold content? The answer, of course, is that even the French, who seem, from their recent actions, to value gold above all else, have not devised a way of doing this at a profit. Theoretically, it is possible, but not with today's technology at a cost which would justify the effort. Man has exploited only those mineral concentrations which accidents of nature have placed within his so far limited means of finding and utilizing. What we geologists and engineers refer to as an orebody is nothing more than a concentration of minerals, exploitable with available knowledge, that will yield a value greater than the value attached to the energy and capital required to produce it. What is "ore" and what is not "ore" is, in the end, a matter of economics. The economic problem stems from the physical and chemical character of mineral deposits. The good Lord stacked the cards heavily in favor of rising costs by limiting the amount of the higher grade ores easily available. As the best and most accessible ores are depleted, it becomes necessary to work harder and with greater ingenuity to produce more from less accessible and lower grade resources. The quantity of mineral raw materials we can have in the future will be determined largely by what we can afford to pay for them in terms of human effort, capital outlay and production energies. We will always have the problem of cost with us and our only real means of keeping ahead of rising costs is by continually improving our technical abilities. We, in this country at least, no longer have open to us large and unexplored virgin wildernesses in which a pick-and-shovel prospector might uncover an untouched mineral bonanza. The rest of the world also has few conventional frontiers left in which the explorer-prospector is free to roam. We do, however, have enormous land areas unexplored, and untouched po-

Jan 1, 1969