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By Geo. H. Ashley

THE year 1923 saw a decline in the production of crude oil and a strong advance in the production of natural gas. The production of petroleum in Pennsylvania has been remarkably uniform for many years, but with a slight average decline. Until 1918, production was maintained above 7,500,000 bbl. Four of the six years from 1918 to 1923, inclusive, saw a yield of between 7,400,000 and 7,500,000 bbl.; 1923 gave only 7,253,000 bbl. The production of natural gas in Pennsylvania has been variable, reaching a maximum of 138,000,000,000 cu. ft. in 1906 and nearly reaching that figure again in 1907 and 1917. In 1921 production dropped to 86,000,000,000 cu. ft., and it seemed that a rapid decline had set in. Prices were raised by most of the gas companies, and -these raises sustained by the Public Service Commission. Possibly as a result of this and the better prices realized, drilling in the gas fields has been active. The year 1923 has not been prolific in large oil wells. The largest single well was drilled by the Manufacturers Light & Heat Co. on the William Auld farm near Prosperity, Morris township, Washington County. This well started at 225 bbl, but quickly dropped to 60 bbl. A 100-bbl. well was struck in September in Springhill township, Greene County. Three wells in the Tidioute pool started at 50 bbl. or better, and a well near the 28th Ward, Pittsburgh, came in at 60 bbl. One well in Washington County started at 50 bbl., but all of the other wells started at less than 20 bbl. The Tidioute pool, which was the sensation of 1922, had by Jan. 1, 1923, dropped in daily total production to 1430 bbl., by Feb. 1 to 1040 bbl., and by May 1 to 700 bbl. At that time, most of the wells were still flowing naturally, though, as the gas pressure was rapidly decreasing, it was not anticipated that such a flow would long continue. As the wells in this pool started at from 500 to. 800 bbl.. a day, it is evident how rapidly they fell off. In August, 1922, the average production per well per day was 44 bbl. ; in February, 1923, 4 bbl.

Jan 3, 1924

Consolidated Gold Fields Limited published annually an excellent reference, GOLD 1978, GOLD 1979, giving the Supply and Demand for Gold, Recent Developments and Prospects, Soviet Gold Production, etc. This outstanding reference is authored by Christopher Glynn, Investment Department, London, Great Britain. The 1978 Report marked the tenth anniversary of Gold Field's review of world gold market developments; and from it and the 1979 report, the following information was derived. The recovery of gold is widespread in the Soviet Union. Originally, gold was mined principally in the Urals, but in the last few years several major deposits have been discovered in the southwestern areas of the Soviet Union. One of the most dramatic discoveries has been the Muruntau deposit in Western Uzbekestan. This deposit, discovered in 1958, is reported to be the largest and among the lowest cost producers in the Soviet Union. It is located in Armenia, approximately 750 km (465 miles) northeast of the Iran-Afghanistan border, lying in the center of the Kyzylkurn (Red Sands) desert at the foot of Muruntau Mountain. Free gold occurs in both fine and coarse size in quartz veins up to 20 m (66 ft) thick associated with a small percentage of sulfides, mainly arsenopyrite. The ore zone constitutes a large gold-enriched stock work of about 4 sq krn (1.5 sq miles). The development of Muruntau was a major undertaking with open -pit development and construction of the mill and refinery complex started early in 1967, and the first gold bar poured in mid-1969. At the end of the first construction stage in 1970, the mill building was an imposing structure about 38 m (125 ft) high and 330 (1,080 ft) in length housing, probably, 11 parallel milling circuits. The first construction stage also included six 50 m (165 ft) diameter thickeners and 30 Pachuca tanks. The original mill complex was tripled in size after large additional gold reserves were discovered at a depth of 600 m (1,970 ft); and the deposit is now being exploited by both open- pit and underground workings. Ore is ground in semi-autogenous mills with the free gold being recovered into a high-grade concentrate on shaking tables. Table tailings are purnped to duplex spiral classifiers in closed circuit with the grinding mills. Classifier overflow is then thickened before being transferred to the Pachuca building where cyanidation takes place. An ion exchange resin is then added in a countercurrent

Jan 1, 1981

By E. T. Dumble

Discussion of the paper of E. T. DUMBLE, presented at the San Francisco meeting, September, 1915, and printed in Bulletin No. 104, August, 1915, pp. .1623 to 1638. E. L. DEGOLYER, Norman, Okla. (communIcatIon to the Secretary*).-Referring to Mr. Dumble's description of the stratigraphy of eastern Mexico, I should like to question the classification of the ?Papagallos? or ?Mendez? shales as being of Cretaceous age and the so-called overlapping of the Papagallos or Mendez shales by the Alazan shales; the classification of the San Felipe series as Cretaceous, and the correlation of the San Felipe series with the San Juan limestones. Mr. Durable apparently recognizes the continuity of the great shale formation by his use of the terms "Papagallos" and "Mendez," as equivalent and interchangeable, since the Papagallos Hills in the State of Nuevo Leon and Mendez Station in Northern Vera Cruz, localities at which the shale formation outcrops, and from which the formation names are taken, are approximately 250 miles apart and on opposite sides of the Tamaulipas barrier. The Papagallos shales (evidently referring here to the northern extension only) are said to be non-fossiliferous and no reason for .their Cretaceous classification is given, though in a previous article' they are classified as Cretaceous because at their northernmost outcrop they "have the same relation toward the overlying Tertiary that the Escondido (Cretaceous) has through its whole extent." The Alazan fossil locality was found by me and the first collections from it were sent to Dr. Dall; about 17 species of marine invertebrates were recognized by him, the fauna noted as having a distinct Pacific tincture, and the age of the formation from which they cause pronounced lower Eocene. The outcrop of the shale formation has been traced continuously from this point by me and my assistants into the Panuco River region, where Eocene fossils are reported at a depth of 1,810 ft. in a well at Topila.2 From Topila the formation has been traced continuously north to the Padilla-Jiminez region in Central Tamaulipas. Lithologically, the formation is fairly constant and though I am only generally acquainted with it north of the Padilla-Jiminez region, until definite evidence of the Cretaceous age of the Papagallos shale in its type localities, or of an overlap, is available, it seems to me more logical to consider the shale formation a single stratigraphic unit of Eocene age.

Jan 12, 1915

DeLamar, the largest silver mine in the United States outside the Coeur d’Alene District in Idaho, came into production in April 1977. It is a joint venture of Earth Resources Company and Canadian Superior Oil Co., with Earth Resources being the operator. The property is a consolidation of several old operations dating back to the 1800s; the better known of these are the DeLamar and Sommer-camp mines. DeLamar is situated in southwestern Idaho near the Oregon border in the Owyhee Mountains, 88 km (55 miles) southwest of Boise, Idaho. Heavy snowfalls and very low temperatures are common in the wintertime. Planned production was 77,500 kg (2.5, million oz) of silver and 5 13 kg (16,500 oz) of gold per year. Expected life at a milling rate of 1,540 mtpd (1,700 stpd) was 20 years, with an ore grade of 144 g Ag and 1.58 g Au per mt (4.2 oz Ag and 0.046 oz Au per st). Present production is at the rate of 1,900 mtpd (2,100 .stpd). The total cost to bring the mine into production was reported to be approximately $22 million, and the mill was reported to have cost about $10,000 per daily ton of design capacity. At DeLamar, naurnanite (Ag2Se) is the principal silver .mineral occurring with acanthite (Ag2S) disseminated through quartz veins and a silicified rhyolitic ash-flow tuff of Miocene age. The mineralization is relatively iron and manganese free and is readily amenable to cyanidation giving recoveries of 85% silver and 92% gold, which occurs free. When the plant was started, considerable difficulties were encountered in handling the wet sticky ore because of the high clay content. Following primary crushing, the ore is stockpiled. Due to the sticky nature of the ore, the vibrating feeders initially installed under the stockpile were replaced by a reclaim hopper and an apron feeder which was fed 24 hours a day by a front-end loader. The minus 200 mm (8 in.) ore is fed to a 5.5 m by 2.75 m (18 ft by 9 ft) autogenous mill followed by a 2.75 m by 4.57 m (9 ft by 15 ft) ball mill and cyclones. The mills are equipped with 750 kw and 520 kw (1,000 hp and 700 hp) motors. Both mills discharge to the same cyclone feed sump and a portion of the cyclone underflow is returned to the autogenous mill. Cyclone overflow, which is 20% plus 74 microns (200 mesh), is leached in four agitators in series for 72 hours (45 hours at the 2,100

Jan 1, 1981

Discussion of the paper of EZEQUIEL ORDOÑEZ, presented at the Pittsburgh meeting, October, 19.14, and printed in Bulletin No. 94, October, 1914, pp. 2531 to 2536. DAVID T. DAY, Washington, D. C.-Dr. Ordoñez is really the pioneer in the study of the occurrence of Mexican oil. His studies came at such an early time as to prove really prophetic. He was successful in pointing out the relationship of these oil deposits to the volcanic teeth which are so very characteristic as a geological feature in the coastal plain of Mexico. At that time only the first wells around Ebano had been drilled, and drilled under the direction of Dr. Ordoñez himself. Only these Ebano wells were available for a real study of the condition of the occurrence of oil, the other large gushers not then being known. From that time on, the study of the geology of the country has, in large measure, been able to keep up with the oil development. As usual, a great deal of haphazard work in the exploration of the oil fields has been carried on. The results have been good, bad, and indifferent. We know a great deal more about the distribution of oil in Mexico than we do about the geology of it. Two ideas have become prevalent in regard to the Mexican oil, due to the peculiar development there: (1) That oil is omnipresent over a tremendous area bounded by De Soto La Marina, in the province of Tamaulipas, on the north, to south of Tuxpam in Veracruz; and (2) that there are very few spots in all this region which have rich gushers. The truth is somewhere between the two. The amount of land taken up, chiefly by three or four large companies, is extremely great, and covers all the possible chances. The idea that oil is going to be discovered in a large percentage of the land taken up by the oil companies, seems to me entirely unjustified. The amount of oil that will be produced from comparatively small spots here and there over that territory and other territory, undoubtedly will be very great. I do not think there is any hope of multiplying the capacity of these large gushers by the area of that part of Mexico in which they are contained, as a, large number of promoters are inclined to do.

Jan 4, 1915

By V. A. Zanadvoroff

THE mine and concentrator of the Howe Sound Co., Chelan Division, are at Holden, in a remote section of the Cascade Mountains of northwestern Washington. Holden is at an elevation of 3200 ft., in the narrow valley of Railroad Creek. This creek drains into Lake Chelan, at a point some 40 miles up the lake from the town of Chelan. The concentrator treats 2000 to 2500 tons of low-grade copper-gold-zinc ore per day. Concentration is achieved by the differential flotation process, with recovery of 94 per cent copper and 82 per cent gold in the copper concentrate, followed by the recovery of 65 to 70 per cent zinc in the zinc flotation circuit. The final flotation tailing is deslimed, and coarse sands, representing 60 to 70 per cent of the total, are cyanided. The tonnage of tailing material amounts to 1900 to 2370 tons per day. GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS The property is within the Chelan National Forest. Railroad Creek is a fishing stream, being stocked regularly with trout from State hatcheries. Consequently, in planning a milling operation, the Howe Sound Co. was obliged to avoid any pollution of the stream by tailing material, and also destruction of valuable stands of timber. Moreover, the selected tailing disposal sites should not mar the natural beauty of the valley. In addition to these requirements, the problem of tailing disposal at Holden was complicated by topography and climatic conditions. The valley is long and narrow, averaging 1200 to 1500 ft. in width. Its walls are flaring at a steep angle. There are no extensive flat areas suitable for deposition of tailing. All valleys tributary to Railroad Creek, also the well-marked paths of snowslides, must be avoided. Finally, the direction of prevailing winds and possible dust hazard arising therefrom dictated the necessity of selecting the tailing-disposal sites downstream from the mill building and two campsites. Heavy snowfall during the winter months of November to March, inclusive, impedes building of the retaining dike, making it necessary to prepare the needed storage space during the summer months. It is inadvisable, also, to do any dike building during the freezing weather, because the dike becomes unstable with the spring thaws, producing inevitable "sloughing" of the built-up borders. TAILING-DISPOSAL SITES The existing tailing-disposal areas are near the south wall of the valley. They were developed, and put to use in the following sequence: No. I. Area.-Covers approximately 10 acres. Built up to the height of 60 ft.

Jan 1, 1946

By W. E. Hall

The Darwin mining district of California, 160 miles north of Los Angeles, has yielded an estimated $45 million in lead, silver, zinc, and copper since 1875. The deposits are in silicated limestone of Penn-sylvanian and Permian age close to a stock of horn-blende-biotite-quartz monzonite. Steep left-lateral strike-slip faults that strike N 50o 70o E served as feeder channels for the ore solutions, and minor folds, favorable beds, and faults close to the feeder channels localized the orebodies. The orebodies are irregular, steep, pipe-like replacements that cut across bedding, bedding replacements, and fissure fillings in a calc-silicate country rock consisting mainly of wollastonite, grossularite-andradite garnet, idocrase, and diop-side. Near surface the ore consists of a soft, crumbly mass of cerussite, hemimorphite, jarosite, limonite, and some secondary copper minerals. The primary ore consists of galena, sphalerite, pyrite, pyrrhotite, and chalcopyrite with smaller amounts of andorite, matildite, scheelite, tetrahedrite, and a high silver-lead-bismuth-selenium-bearing galena. Preliminary X-ray fluorescence study of the primary ore has indicated unusually high concentrations of bismuth, selenium, and silver in galena from certain parts of the mine. One phase of this study concerns the distribution of these elements. Twenty-two samples of galena and thirty of sphal- erite have been purified and analyzed or are being analyzed. The selenium in 21 samples of galena ranges from 0.0045 to 2.11 pct; four contain more than 1 pct. These four samples were collected from the Essex orebody, where most of the selenium is concentrated. Three are from high-grade, near-surface ore, and one is from the 700 level. Four of the seven analyzed galena samples from the Thompson workings immediately north of the Essex orebody contain 0.29 to 0.74 pct Se; the others show less than 0.05 pct. Galena from the Defiance workings about 2000 ft south of the Essex has less than 0.03 pct Se. The selenium-bearing galena also contains concentrations of bismuth and silver. Preliminary spectographic analyses indicate as much as 3 pct Bi and more than 1 pct Ag in galena with high selenium content. Antimony is the only other minor element present in galena in amounts greater than 0.02 pct; most galena contains between 0.1 and 0.2 pct and the maximum is 0.72 pct. A second phase of the study is an attempt to determine the temperature range of the formation of the ore. The iron content of sphalerite deposited in equilibrium with pyrrhotite is being used as a geologic thermometer as it is a function of the temperature of deposition of the ore.' Preliminary results indicate temperature range from 430°C in replacement orebodies in the Defiance workings to 180°C in shallow fissure fillings.

Jan 1, 1960

By William J. McCaughey, Richard L. Barrett

FOR sixty years-in fact, ever since the inception of the basic steelmaking process -basic slags have been the subject of study by chemists, metallurgists and petrographers, with the purpose of providing a better understanding of the reactions between the slag and the metal during the refining process. The result of this work and of the researches of mineralogists and physical chemists into the chemistry of oxide systems is a considerable body of literature dealing not only with slags themselves but with equilibrium relationships in systems synthesized from pure components. Since any actual slag is a multicomponent system more complex than any yet worked out in the laboratory, a complete solution to the problem is still far away. The writers have recently published a paper1 which they believe sheds light on the role of the slag in the elimination of phosphorus and it is the purpose of the present paper to discuss the metallurgical applications of that work. Since the pioneer investigations on the constitution of basic slags carried on by Stead and Risdale, Carnot and Richards, Hilgenstock and others in the 1880's, a considerable body of literature on this subject has appeared. Many of the more important of these papers were summarized in the previous paper,' therefore they will not be reviewed here. PETROGRAPHIC STUDY The present writers have had occasion, over a period of years, to examine petrographically a great number of basic steel- making slags having a very wide range of chemical compositions and made under various conditions of operating practice. Although certain of these slags exhibit some unusual features, it is a remarkable fact that the great majority of mature slags show certain typical characteristics, which persist throughout the wide range of chemical compositions. The typical mature slag usually appears under the microscope to consist of two phases. The phase of primary crystallization is light colored and doubly refracting. If separated mechanically and subjected to chemical analysis, it is found to consist essentially of SiO2, CaO, and P2O5. Sometimes, although not usually, two such silicate-phosphate phases are found. The other conspicuous phase is dark in color and optically isotropic, and occurs as the interstitial material between the grains of the light colored phase. This dark colored interstitial phase when analyzed is found to consist essentially of FeO,Fe2O3, MnO, and MgO. In some slags high in iron oxide, particularly those from low-carbon heats, dicalcium ferrite is found. This phase is dark reddish brown in color and anisotropic.

Jan 1, 1944

By A. W. Hesse

VENTILATION of all types of coal mines is fundamentally the same, in that sufficient air must be provided to properly dilute and remove dangerous and obnoxious gases and leave the oxygen content of the air not under 19 per cent in all places where men and animals must work. Perhaps animals should not be mentioned, as the speed of mechanical loading leaves livestock behind and outmoded. Since this paper has to do with the influence of mechanical loading equipment on ventilation, the problems will be confined to the splits and the coal-producing places of the mine. The removal of coal dust from the air, or its rapid transmission to the return air courses; the possible increase in the liberation of gases by the multiplication of cuts in the coal made during one shift or multiple shifts; and the additional electrical equipment at the faces, are the factors that cause the added importance to good ventilation in the permissible equipment area of gassy bituminous coal mines. VENTILATION FOR MECHANICAL LOADING IN GASSY MINES In gassy mines, the air currents must be maintained across the faces in such a way as to prevent short cuts to the returns and leaving pockets in which accumulation of gas might occur. To do this, two or more doors are required on almost every entry containing a track to the face, so located that in no event will a trip of cars block open the doors and permit the air to by-pass some place or places on the air-approach side. This method frequently requires the use of unusual lengths of duplex cables to reach the mechanical equipment at the faces, particularly where the distances between parallel working places are 100 ft., as at the Nemacolin mine. Fig. I shows a pillar section being worked with mechanical loaders. This layout requires carrying the air in on the right and releasing it on the left, because the track clearance is on the right side and the line brattice is built on this side from the last crosscut to the face. Thus, the air travels to the face with greater velocity, and gives more assurance of sweeping out the gas that might be exuding from the crevices of the coal. All working places, in driving through solid coal, are thus treated alike. They are all potentially gassy and must be swept clear of whatever may contaminate the air. Once the air starts into the working section, it is not released until it does a good job. Of course the volume of air must be large enough not only to dilute the gases but to carry away explosive fumes and fine coal dust quickly. Mechanical loading entails cutting and drilling of the coal during the same working period as the loading when two-shift and three-shift operations are employed, and all three processes create finely pulverized coal, which in itself is hazardous if not controlled by some means. If the ventilation is inadequate and gas accumulates, and a spark from defective electrical

Jan 1, 1941

By Claudia Gasparrini

Gold, silver and platinum-group elements occur normally in very low concentrations in their ores. Because their market value is in many situations high enough to justify their full recoveries, mineralogical studies before any routine recovery is attempted are particularly important for the description of their manner of occurrence and decision on the appropriate recovery techniques. Gold and silver, although sometimes treated by similar metallurgical processes, may require different approaches and treatments because of the different manner in which they occur in their ores: gold has a relatively simple mineralogy limited to native gold, electrum and less often tellurides. Silver has a very complex mineralogy including over 200 different minerals. On the other hand, gold is more often than silver recovered from ores where its fine grain size requires the breaking of the host minerals by chemical methods. Mineral, grain sizes and host minerals all affect the metallurgy of the platinum-group elements..

Jan 1, 1984

By Sherwin F. Kelly

THE principal interest in the meeting sings arranged by the Geophysical Committee this year centered around the many papers dealing with the practical applications of geophysical methods to solving geological problems in many other parts of the world. The program Wednesday morning dealt with work in South Africa, Poland, and South America. Rudolph Krahmann's first paper gave a perspective of the geophysical investigations upon mineral deposits in South Africa. A striking point in his story was the tremendous increase in magnetic work during the last two or three years. This is largely accounted for by the intensive exploration for the extension of the Witwatersrand gold mining area. The author mentioned many surveys in which other methods were used for the search for ores of copper, lead, and zinc, and in the study of water-bearing and oil-bearing structures.

Jan 1, 1935

By K. J. Powers

The Mine Accident, Injury, Illness and Employment Database at the Mine Safety and Health Administration's Health and Safety Analysis Center is a computerized system that stores accident, injury, illness and employment data about all coal and metal/nonmetal mines in the United States. The paper discusses the system for collecting, storing, analyzing, and reporting this information and how these data are used in the ongoing effort to increase the health and safety in this nation's mines.

Jan 1, 1983

By G. F. Loughlin

THE matter of grading Indiana oolitic limestone has been under a cooperative study by the Supervising Architect's office, the U. S. Geological Survey, the Bureau of Standards, and the former Indiana Limestone Quarrymen's Association. As the criteria for grading are necessarily based on a number of geologic and related factors of which those quarrying and using the stone had only imperfect appreciation, the first part of the report is a very elementary account of the origin, structure, and the chemical and physical properties of tie stone, and their relations to durability and utilization, and serves as a foundation for the second part, which discusses grading and pro- poses limits for grades established by the quamymen. Salient features of Part I of a report that has been prepared are the variations in uniformity of stone due to cross bedding, and local uncomformities; the relative prominence of weathering effects on the coarser uneven grained surfaces, and its apparent absence on fine, uniform grained surfaces, although the amount of weathering is the same on each; the attributing "crow feet" (stylolites) to solution under pressure, and the explanation that, whereas the thinnest "crow feet" have no noteworthy effect on weathering quality or strength, the thicker ones are likely to weather out rapidly and to promote splitting; the influence of fracturing on the oxidation of the original gray or "blue" to buff color above the ground water level; the interpretation of chemical analyses and the pointing out that both the gray and buff colors are due mainly to organic

Jan 1, 1929

By Allen H. Rogers

THE need for coordinated effort on public problem by engineers has long been felt. Early in June there will assemble in Washington a conference composed of delegates from all the engineering organizations in the country. The call for this conference is issued by the Joint Conference , Committee of the four national societies as the completion of its work on the organization of a congress composed of delegates representing all the engineering organizations of the United States. The plan for this confederation was presented at a joint meeting of the administrative boards of the national founder societies on Jan. 23, 1920; and was unanimously approved in principle by that meeting. The work of the committee since that date has consisted in drafting a constitution of the organization to be presented at the conference for discussion and, after such amendments as may be adopted, acceptance.

Jan 1, 1920

By J. W. Marx, R. H. Langenheim

The injection of heat-bearing fluids may offer a wider application to secondary and tertiary recovery from conventional oil reservoirs than inderground combustion since the process is more easily controlled and the reservoir requirements, in general, are less critical. In all cares, conduction heat losses to overburden and un-derburden will impose an economic limit upon the size of the area which can be swept out from any one injection point for any given set of conditions. The present report describes a method for c.rtin~ating thermal invasion rates, cumulative heated area, and theoretical economic limits for sustained hot-fluid injection at a constant rate into an idealized reservoir. Full allow-ance is made for non-productive reservoir heat losses. Required solutions can be obtained directly from the numerical tables given here, as soon as all operating conditions are specified, withou extensive mathematica1 ~nanipulation on the part of the user. The injection of a heat-bearing fluid into a reservoir is frequently proposed as a means of secondary or tertiary oil production. This form of thermal recovery may offer a wider application to conventional oil reservoirs than underground combustion since the process is more easily controlled and the reservoir requirements, in general, are less critical. Because of its large gross heat capacity, steam appears to be the most efficient heat injection medium, although mixtures of steam and other gases, hot water, hot oil and hot non-condensable gases also have been employed. Whatever the nature of the injection medium, economic evaluation of such thermal recovery processes will depend upon thermal invasion rates, or rates of productive reservoir heating, at any given time after the start of heat injection. In all cases, conduction heat losses to overburden and underburden will impose an economic limit upon the size of the area which can be swept out from any one injection point, for a given set of reservoir conditions, at any given heat injection rate. The present report describes a method for estimating thermal invasion rates, cumulative heated area and theoretical economic limits for sustained heat injection at a constant rate into an idealized reservoir, making full allowance for non-productive reservoir heat losses. Required solutions can be obtained directly from the nu- merical tables given here, as soon as all operating conditions are specified, without extensive mathematical manipulation. It should be noted that ordinary water flooding may be used to move an annular-heated zone outward, even though the economic areal limit for straight heat injection has been reached. Thus well spacing need not be confined to the areal limits as determined here. However, the present calculations do not cover such supplementary heat scavenging programs. The operating element consists of a radial flow system, concentric about the point of injection, with the idealized step function temperature profile illustrated by the dashed line in Fig. 1. The solid curve shown in Fig. 1 gives a qualitative picture of the true radial temperature distribution. It will be shown later that the expressions given below, which are derived from the simplifying step idealization (dashed line in Fig. I), also can be interpreted in terms of the more realistic temperature distribution shown in Fig. 2. For this case, the thermal invasion radius is simply redefined as the distance from injection well to the mid-point of the temperature distribution.

By R. C. McFarlane, T. D. Mueller, J. E. Walstrom

In evaluating uncertainty, experiments are usually performed repeatedly and then conclusions are drawn from the distribution of results. With the advent of high-speed electronic computers, it is possible to perform experiments using mathematical models constructed to simulate complex experiments or operations. Statistical methods are then applied to the results of the simulated experiments. This procedure forms the busis of this paper. Demonstrated is the need for properly accounting for uncertainty in petroleum engineering problems. How uncertainty affects solutions is evaluated in three example illustrations. The method used to evaluate uncertainty in petroleum engineering studies is the Monte Carlo simulation procedure.'-" INTRODUCTION The solution to most technical problems may be derived from interrelationships among several quantities called variables or parameters. There may be only a few variables or several hundred. Interrelationships among parameters may be explicit or implicit, well established or only approximate. Some variables that fully or partially depend on the magnitude of others are called dependent variables. Input variables for most practical problems are not precisely known; there is usually an uncertainty in their value. The degree of uncertainty may vary from one variable to another. Variables that are known accurately are called determinates.' For instance, the gravity of crude obtained from a particular pool may be known precisely, and therefore is a determinate. The degree of precision with which a quantity can be determined increases as data describing the pool are accumulated during the development of the field and the producing life of the pool. The uncertainty of a parameter may result from difficulty in directly and accurately measuring the quantity. This is particularly true of the physical reservoir parameters which, at best, can only be sampled at various points, and which are subject to errors caused by presence of the borehole and borehole fluid or by changes that occur during the transfer of rock and its fluids to laboratory temperature and pressure conditions. Uncertainty may also result in attempting to predict future parameter values. This type of uncertainty is particularly evident in investment analyses involving future costs, prices, sales volumes and product demand. Uncertainty in the solution to investment problems is often called risk, and its study is called risk analysis.' Uncertainty also enters into biological and sociological analyses in which indeterminate factors are often important due to limited control of the experimental material. It is customary, in evaluating uncertainty, to perform repeated experiments and to draw conclusions from the distribution of the results of these experiments. With the advent of the high-speed electronic computer, it is possible to construct mathematical models which simulate complex experiments or operations and to perform the experiments repeatedly, utilizing the models. Statistical methods are then applied to the results of the simulated experiments This method forms the basis of the investigation reported here. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR VARIABLES The uncertainty in the value of a variable may be indicated by a probabilistic description accomplished by expressing the quantity by a probability distribution. Many recognized probability distributions can be used to describe physical quantities. Recent studies used various types of distributions to describe core analysis data.',' However, for the examples in this paper, the uniform and triangular distributions are believed to reasonably approximate the data used (Fig. 1). The uniform distribution confines the variable between an upper and a lower limit. The variable may lie anywhere between the two limits. This distribution is used when no one range of values for a variable is more probable than any other, but information or intuitive reasoning indicates the variable will lie somewhere between the chosen limits. The triangular distribution is used for a variable when more data are available to indicate a central tendency of distribution. This allows postulating a "most likely" value to the distribution and upper and lower limits. In this case, as for the uniform distribution, the variable is not expected to assume a value less than the lower limit or greater than the upper limit. However, with improved quality of data it can be postulated that the variable will tend to assume a value close to the most likely value, and that there will be a decreasing probability for values away from the most likely value. The area under either of these probability distributions is equal to unity since it is assumed that there is a 100 percent probability that the variable will lie somewhere under the curve. An ordinate erected at any particular value of the variable divides the area under the curve into two parts: the area to the left of the ordinate represents the probability that the value of the variable will be equal to or less than the value of the variable at the position of the ordinate, and vice versa. The probability is zero that the variable will have any specific deterministic value. If two ordinates are drawn for any two values of the variable, the probability that the variables will have a value lying between these ordinates is equal to the area under the curve lying between the ordinates.

By Akio Suzuki, P. G. Wahlbeck

AS a part of a study of the vaporization of transition metal-chalcogen systems, the vaporization reactions for the Ti-Se system have been studied. In order to establish vaporization reactions it is important to determine the identity of vapor species in equilibrium with the condensed phases. In some cases, it is possible to deduce the identity of vapor species through observations of composition change of the condensed phase with which the vapor is in equilibrium. Determination of vapor species in equilibrium with condensed phases should precede vapor-pressure measurements and is necessary for proper thermodynamic analysis of vapor-pressure data. Bear and McTag-gart' reported that vacuum heating ot TiSea at 950°C produced a residue with a composition of 1.7 Se/Ti atomic ratio units. Analyses of condensed phases existing for the Ti-Se system have been performed by Bernusset,2"4 Gron-vold and Langmyhr,5 Hahn and Ness,' and Ehrlich.~ Results and conclusions of two types of experiments are described herein: 1) experiments where samples of known composition were vaporized followed by chemical analysis of residues and 2) experiments where the vapor species were identified by means of a mass spectrometer. Experimental Section. Sarnple Preparation. Samples of TiSe2 were prepared in a sealed, evacuated quartz ampule by heating to 1000°C stoichiometric amounts of selenium of 99.999+ pct purity obtained from the American Smelting and Refining Co. and titanium of 99.2 pct purity obtained from A. D. Mackay, Inc. After heating, the sample was ground and reheated to insure homogeneity. Samples containing less selenium than TiSez were prepared by mixing amounts of titanium powder and TiSez appropriate for the desired composition; the titanium and TiSez mixture was heated in the same manner as described for TiSe2. Analyses of titanium selenide samples contained in quartz crucibles were performed by gravimetric oxidation in oxygen at 800°C; the products of the oxidation were solid TiOz and gaseous Se02. The mass of the original sample and the mass of TiOn determined the Se/Ti atomic ratio. The sample of TiSen used in these experiments had a composition of 2.04 Se/Ti atomic ratio units. The compositions for all samples reported were analyzed by this method. Va/!orization Experiments. Samples of titanium selenides were vaporized in tungsten Knudsen crucibles. Some vaporization experiments were carried out in glass vacuum lines followed by chemical analyses of residues, and some vaporization experiments were performed with a Bendjx mass spectrometer as described previously.8

Jan 1, 1967

By AIME

TO say that Milton Fies has been active in promoting the Southern Research Institute is a masterpiece of understatement. He is a director and trustee who was in on the ground floor when plans were first made for the Institute and since it became an actuality early in 1945 his interest and efforts continue. He talked about it at the last regional meeting of the Birmingham Section of the A.F.A. and has talked all over the South-and when he makes a speech he has really prepared it. He does not try to rival a political spellbinder, but his careful, concise English is always well thought out and to the point. Southern Research might be called his present hobby as it has been for the past two or three years. Another major interest has been his encouragement and training of engineering students. Active in the formation of the Student Chapter of the A.I.M.E. at the University of Alabama, for several years he saw to it that the students had a prominent engineer at each monthly meeting, usually taking them down to Tuscaloosa from Birmingham in his own automobile. He has also been keenly interested in the mining engineering activities at Tuscaloosa, both in the Bureau of Mines and the University.

Jan 1, 1946

By J. R. Long, T. R. Graham

THIS report is concerned with part of a series of investigations carried on by the Federal Bureau of Mines on alloys, particularly nonferrous alloys, made with electrolytic manganese. A broad general program instituted after commercial quantities of electrolytic manganese became available was necessary in order to compare the effects of electrolytic manganese with those of the ordinary commercial grades. Representative analyses of these two materials show the commercial manganese metal to contain up to 2 per cent iron, a maximum of I per cent silicon and 0.06 per cent carbon, while the electrolytic manganese rarely exceeds 0.01 iron, 0.02 sulphur, with no silicon or aluminum. In the literature, the emphasis has been largely on high-strength casting alloys containing up to 5 per cent manganese, and few data are available on wrought manganese alloys. These factors, coupled with the strategic position of copper and zinc, have given impetus to the Bureau's War Research Program for the development of alloys containing nonstrategic manganese for the purpose of supplementing or providing alternates for the more strategic metals. The alloy reported here was studied, along with several other ferrous and nonferrous alloys, as possible cartridge-case material, and was chosen after a review of the properties of the ternary alloys of copper-manganese-zinc. PRELIMINARY WORK In a cursory survey of this system, alloys ranging from 60 to 95 per cent copper, 0 to 50 per cent manganese, and 5 to 40 per cent zinc were investigated. The alloys containing 60 per cent copper were found to fall into the two-phase alpha plus beta region of the system, and since those containing 70 per cent would not permit a saving, only alloys containing 65 per cent copper were considered. The tensile properties of these 65 per cent alloys are plotted in Fig. I as a function of manganese content for annealed material and for four conditions of cold-work In the annealed condition the increases in strength and decreases in elongation are minor up to 15 per cent manganese; beyond this, the changes become more significant. In the cold-worked condition, the first 5 to 10 per cent of manganese appears to have the greatest strengthening, effect, the rate of increase dropping off as the manganese increases beyond this amount. These effects are more pronounced with moderate than with severe cold reduction. It is also interesting to note that while the elongation of annealed material drops regularly with increasing manganese, the elongation in the cold-worked state is relatively little affected by increasing manganese content, particu-

Jan 1, 1944

By AIME AIME

THIS year's Chairman of the Institute of Metals Division is a relatively rare phenomenon in the metallurgical profession; he is an expert historian of metallurgy, he is a confirmed collector and student of old works on alchemy, chemistry, and metallurgy-vide: the famous Biringuccio and he is a profound student (with a somewhat idealistic slant) of recent trends in world affairs and in what some incurable optimists call civilization; and at the same time he is still possessed of a sense of humor. Incidentally he is also one of the bestknown nonferrous metallurgists in this country and abroad, and for fifteen years has been a willing worker in A.I.M.E and the Institute of Metals Division.

Jan 1, 1943