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In constructing a financial model of a project significant effort is expended on capital and operating cost estimation, commodity price forecasts, and choice of discount rates while uncertainty in the primary input, the reserve, is often completely overlooked. The aim of this paper is to highlight the impact of uncertainty in the resource/reserve estimation process on the assessment of the financial performance of a project. Four qualitative processes have an impact on resource/reserve uncertainty. These stages are: 1.Ore definition 2.Geological interpretation 3.Resource estimation 4.Ore reserve estimation and mine planning. Each stage contains a number of tasks that may be considered as key performance activities (KPAs). Optimizing the manner in which these KPAs are completed can remove a great deal of uncertainty and error from the resource/reserve process. Examination of these KPAs within a company can also provide an insight to the quality of the information underlying the project. This will allow the company to identify any shortcomings in the data and to assess the resulting risks (Gilfillan, 1998). A hypothetical financial model based on a gold operation has been used to estimate the potential effect of resource/reserve uncertainty on revenue. Monte Carlo simulation has been employed to simulate a number of hypothetical scenarios: 1.a base case scenario which assumes no major errors or biases, but contains realistic margins for uncertainty that would exist in any project where work is being completed to the limit of best endeavours 2.a poor sampling scenario which assumes poor sampling practice and lack of understanding of sample preparation 3.a poor resource estimation scenario which assumes poor modelling and inappropriate choice of interpolation technique, and 4. a ?typical? scenario which represents a project where the majority of KPAs are not performed as best as they could be. The results show that realistic uncertainty ranges can generate changes in the estimate of potential revenue of plus or minus 30%.Therefore, it is important to allow for errors in these processes in any financial analysis or feasibility study. It is recommended that, when building a financial model, are view of relevant resource/reserve KPAs be carried out and appropriate ranges for uncertainty be applied to provide a range of potential outcomes. These outcomes can then be factored into the detailed cash flow analysis in order to ensure that technical uncertainty is built into financial decisions.

Jan 1, 1999

By H. Yavuz

Closed form solutions assume opening shape to be circular to simplify the calculation of the ground response curve for the design of underground openings. However, in mining and civil engineering works, non-circular openings are commonly excavated. Therefore, there is a need to estimate the ground response curve for such openings. In this respect, a simple model for circular, arch and rectangular shape underground openings subject to a hydrostatic stress field is the aim of this study. A comprehensive numerical modelling, using the finite difference method, based on numerical modelling code FLAC version 4.0, was carried out. In addition to shape of an opening, the effect of rock mass strength, opening size, in situ stress on strain (tunnel deformation to tunnel radius) of the opening in response to applied support pressures was investigated parametrically by developing models for each specific condition. The strain results for each excavation shape obtained from this large number of models against the normalized strength of rock mass and internal support pressure with in situ stress magnitude were evaluated by multiple regression analysis. As a result, a model that was well correlated to data was developed for an overall estimate of the ground response curve depending on relevant effecting parameters. The regression coefficients of the model were given for estimating both roof and sidewall response curve of each excavation shape. The model was verified by statistical tests and by an analytical solution. Diagrams were also established to highlight the influence of relevant parameters and to estimate the support pressure for a stable opening staying within the acceptable limits of strain. Strains occurring in a rectangular opening are found to be larger than those in the arch and circular openings for the other fixed parameters. In the mean time, larger strains occur around an arch shape opening than a circular opening.

Jan 1, 2006

By P. Sun

Abstract: From the viewpoint of interaction mechanics of solid and gas, a coupled mathematical model is presented for coal/rock mass deformation and gas leak flow in parallel deformable coal seams. Numerical simulations for the prediction of the safety range of mining of protection layer are performed with experimental data from a mine with potential danger of coal/gas outbursts. Analyses show that the numerical simulation results are consistent with the measured data on the spot. Therefore, the coupled model shows a positive future for applications in a wide range. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG:Von der Veranschaulichung der Abhängigkeit Mechaniker für Körper und Gas, wird ein verbundenes mathematisches Modell für festen coal/rock Deformation und Gasleckstelle Fluß in parallele deformable Kohlenähte dargestellt. Numerische Simulationen für die Vorhersage der Sicherheit Strecke, die Schutzschichtbergbau verwendet, werden mit experimentellen Daten von einer Grube mit möglicher Gefahr der coal/gas Ausbrüche durchgeführt. Analysen zeigen, daß die numerischen Simulation Resultate mit den gemessenen Daten bezüglich des Punktes gleichbleibend sind. Folglich zeigt das verbundene Modell eine positive Zukunft für Anwendungen in einer breiten Strecke. RÉSUMÉ: Du point de vue de la mécanique d'interaction pour le solide et le gaz, un modèle mathématique couplé est présenté pour l'écoulement plein de déformation de coal/rock et de fuite de gaz dans les filons houillers deformable parallèles. Des simulations numériques pour la prévision de la gamme de sûreté employant l'exploitation de couche de protection sont effectuées avec des données expérimentales d'une mine avec le danger potentiel des accès de coal/gas. Les analyses prouvent que les résultats numériques de simulation sont conformés aux données mesurées sur place. Par conséquent, le modèle couplé montre un futur positif pour des applications dans un éventail.

Jan 1, 2003

By M. Shahabi, M. Kashfi

This paper briefly describes the excavation procedure of a powerhouse, comprising of its incremental excavation, reinforcement measures, and the installed monitoring system. During the first phase of excavation, the data obtained from monitoring of the behavior of Mudstone layers were used to recommend extra support measures. These data are also used to design the support of the powerhouse during its extension phase. In diesen bericht wird die bohrmcthode von kraftwerk ecavation in stupenweise dargestelt, und in die richtung d.sicherung, Mit hilfe von monitoring systeme. Die monitoring in (mudstone) schichten ist an schutz in bohrung entworfen und montiert in diese methode in K.W. fase 1 schutzung das K.W. in erweiterung der K.W. das berte auserwelt worden ist Cet article décrit brièvement le procédé d'excavation d'une centrale électrique, comportant de son excavation incrémental, de mesures de renfort, et du système de surveillance installé. Pendant la première phase de l'excavation, les données obtenues à partir de la surveillance du comportement des couches de schiste ont été utilisées pour recommander des mesures supplémentaires de soutien. Ces données sont également utilisées pour la conception de la soutènement de la centrale électrique pendant sa phase d’extension.

Jan 1, 2003

By K. S. Rao, R. P. Tiwari, V. K. Shrivastava

ABSRACT: In this paper numerical simulation of jointed block mass behaviour obtained in an experimental study has been presented. Singh et al. (2002) conducted extensive tests on the jointed model materials with several joint configurations. The results of this experimental study were used to validate the strength behaviour of numerical block mass model developed using professionally available software. This software basically contains different kinds of material models. From the results of numerical simulation the existence of strength anisotropy was observed. The strength anisotropy so obtained has been compared with the experimental values reported by Singh et al. (2002). The anisotropic curves in both cases are U-shaped with flat base. They show good agreement in sliding mode of failure zone in which inclination ß (= 90° - ?) of joint set-I lie between 20° to 40° for all cases of interlocking. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG: In dieser numerischen Papiersimulation des verbundenen Blockmasse Verhaltens, das in einer experimentellen Studie erhalten wird, ist dargestellt worden. Singh et al. (2002) leiteten umfangreiche Tests auf den verbundenen vorbildlichen Materialien mit einigen gemeinsamen Konfigurationen. Die Resultate dieser experimentellen Studie wurden verwendet, um das Stärke Verhalten des numerischen Blockmasse Modells zu validieren, das mit professionell vorhandener Software entwickelt wurde. Diese Software enthält im Allgemeinen unterschiedliche Arten der materiellen Modelle. Von den Resultaten der numerischen Simulation wurde das Bestehen von Stärke Anisotrophie beobachtet. Die Stärke Anisotrophie also erreicht ist mit den experimentellen Werten verglichen worden, die von Singh et al. (2002) berichtet werden. Die anisotropen Kurven in beiden Fällen sind mit flacher Unterseite u-förmig. Sie zeigen gute Vereinbarung in gleitender Erscheinungsform des Ausfalls Zone, in der Neigung ß (= 90° - ?) von der Verbindung stellenSie Lüge zwischen 20° auf 40° für alle Fälle vom Ineinandergreifen ein. RESUME: Dans cette simulation numérique de papier du comportement joint de la masse de bloc obtenu en étude expérimentale a été présenté. Singh et autres (2002) ont effectué les essais étendus sur les matériaux modèles joints avec plusieurs configurations communes. Les résultats de cette étude expérimentale ont été employés pour valider le comportement de résistance du modèle numérique de la masse de bloc développé en utilisant le logiciel professionnellement disponible. Ce logiciel contient fondamentalement différents genres de modèles matériels. Des résultats de la simulation numérique on a observé l'existence de l'anisotropie de force. L'anisotropie de force ainsi obtenu a été comparée aux valeurs expérimentales rapportées par Singh et autres (2002). Les courbes anisotropes dans les deux cas sont en U avec la base plate. Elles montrent la bonne concordance dans le mode coulissant de la zone d'échec en lequel la inclination ß (= 90° - ?) du joint placez-Je le mensonge entre 20° à 40° pour tous les cas d'enclencher.

Jan 1, 2003

By A. H. Mokken

Failed attempts at amalgamation of a gold/osmiridium concentrate, recovered behind pebble mill liners during re-lining, led to the discovery that the gold particles were coated and that nitric acid only could remove the coatings. Following this treatment amalgamation was rapid and resulted in a complete recovery of the gold that otherwise would have been lost in plant residues. Investigations into the nature and formation of the coatings led to the realization that the coatings were impregnations of harder elements, associated with the gold during grinding and driven into the softer gold surface by high pressure, impact and attrition. It was further realized that this phenomenon could be part of gold ore milling, world-wide. With these thoughts in mind the question is asked whether concentration down to micron sizes prior to cyanidation, should not play a greater role in gold recovery.

Jan 1, 1999

By T. Gerritsen, R. C. Delgado, J. Janzen, E. R. Veloza

The paper describes the components of an Integrated Furnace Control system for covered-arc (shielded arc) smelting with results from the recently started 75 MW Cerro Matoso Line 2 Furnace. The paper starts with a review of the mechanisms of power and feed input and heat losses in the shielded-arc smelting process, and describes how the details of the control system are tailored to the process. The control modules of a covered-arc smelting furnace are described including measured results and screen captures. This paper focuses on Integrated Furnace Controls tailored to shielded-arc smelting, but similar approaches have been recently applied to other furnace processes including immersed-arc smelting.

Jan 1, 2004

By I. Hague

Support liners for underground applications include steel and timber sets, meshing and lacing, screen/mesh, shotcrete and thin support liners (superskins). Over the past few years, major advances have been made in the design and application of liners; especially shotcrete and thin support liners. For shotcrete in mines these advances include the common use of slick-lines to solve logistics problems, the design of alkali free accelerators, the use of synthetic fibres and the new generation application equipment. The field of thin support liners is a new one but advances have been dramatic. This paper discusses the progress made and the need for standardization in definitions and testing for thin support liners. It concludes that the newer technologies have a huge potential positive impact on the industries, from both safety and cost points of view. Le chemisage de soutènement pour extraction souterraine comprend des cadres d’acier ou de boisage, mailles et chapeau, cribles/mailles, béton projeté et des chemisages minces de soutènement (super-peaux). Dans les dernières années, des progrès considérables ont été fait dans la conception et application des chemisages, en particulier les chemisages de soutènement en béton projeté et les chemisages minces. Pour le béton projeté dans les mines, ces progrès comprennent l’utilisation courante de lignes de minerais broyés fin pour résoudre des problèmes de logistique, la création d’accélérateurs sans alcali, l’usage de fibres synthétiques et d’une nouvelle génération d’outillage. Le domaine des chemisages minces de soutènement est très récent mais les progrès ont été rapides. Cette étude présente les progrès accomplis et discute du besoin de standardisation dans les définitions et les tests pour chemisages minces de soutènement. La conclusion est que les technologies nouvelles présentent un énorme impact potentiel positif sur les industries, du point de vue à la fois de la sécurité et de la rentabilité. Unterstützungsverkleidungen für Untertaganwendungen inkludieren Flecht und Seilwerk, Gitter/Geflecht, Spritzbeton und dünne Unterstützungsverkleidungen (superskins). Während der letzten Jahre wurden grosse Fortschritte im Design und in der Anwendung der Verkleidungen gemacht; besonders bei Spritzbeton und dünnen Unterstützungsverkleidungen. In Bezug auf Spritzbeton in den Gruben schließen diese Fortschritte den allgemeinen Gebrauch von Rutschbahnen ein um Logistikprobleme zu lösen, das Design von alkalifreien Akzeleratoren, den Gebrauch von synthetischen Fasern und die neue Generation von Anwendungsausrüstung. Der Bereich der dünnen Unterstützungsverkleidungen ist neu, aber die Fortschritte sind drastisch gewesen. Diese Arbeit behandelt den erzielten Fortschritt, die Notwendigkeit der Normierung in den Definitionen und in der Prüfung dünner Unterstützungsverkleidungen. Sie kommt zum Schluß, daß die neueren Technologien, sowohl vom Gesichtspunkt der Sicherheit als auch der Kosten, eine sehr große potentielle positive Auswirkung auf die Industrien haben.

Jan 1, 2003

By V. Labiouse, B. Heidenreich

The rebound phenomenon, which occurs during rockfalls when a rock block impacts with a slope surface, is influenced by several parameters related not only to the slope material but also to the block and the kinematics. The paper presents a small-scale testing campaign undertaken at the LMR (EPFL) to better understand and quantify the bouncing of blocks on granular slopes. The influence of some factors related to the ground material, the block and the kinematics is examined. Bei Steinschlägen wird die Flugbahn eines stürzenden Felsbrockens maßgeblich durch den Abprall vom Hang bestimmt. Der Rückprall hängt von verschiedenen Parametern ab, wobei nicht nur das Hangmaterial sondern auch Blockeigenschaften und Kinematik eine große Rolle spielen. Zum besseren Verständnis dieses Phänomens und seiner Quantifizierung werden am LMR (EPFL) kleinmaßstäbliche Versuchskampagnen auf granulären Materialien durchgeführt. Der vorliegende Artikel stellt die Versuche vor und untersucht den Einfluss verschiedener Boden-, Block- und kinematischer Parameter. Le phénomène de rebond qui se présente lors de l’impact d’un bloc rocheux sur la surface d’un versant dépend non seulement des caractéristiques du terrain, mais aussi de facteurs relatifs au bloc et à la cinématique. L’article présente une campagne d’essais sur modèle réduit entreprise au LMR (EPFL) afin de mieux comprendre et quantifier l’impact de blocs sur des matériaux granulaires. L’influence de divers paramètres relatifs au sol, au bloc et à la cinématique est mise en évidence.

Jan 1, 2003

By K. Sugawara, Y. Hirakawa, A. Sato

The rock mass properties such as deformability and permeability are highly dependent on the existence of cracks. The Ratio of Crack Opening Dependency (RCOD) was proposed as a new index to evaluate the deformability of infinite jointed rock mass. The RCOD is defined as the ratio of total amount of crack opening and the total deformation of jointed rock mass. The theoretical relation between the RCOD and the effective compliance of jointed rock mass is discussed and confirmed through two-dimensional numerical analysis by the SC-DDM, together with the applicability to the rock engineering. Les propriétés de masse rocheuse telles que la déformabilité et la perméabilité sont très dépendantes de l'existence de fissures. Le rapport de dépendance d'ouverture des fissures a été proposé comme un nouvel index d'évaluation de la déformabilité de masse rocheuse à assemblage infini. Le rapport de dépendance d'ouverture des fissures est défini comme étant le pourcentage de quantité totale d'ouverture des fissures et de déformation totale de la masse rocheuse assemblée. Le rapport théorique entre le rapport de dépendance d'ouverture des fissures et la compliance efficace de masse rocheuse assemblée sont traités et confirmés au travers d'une analyse numérique à deux dimensions par SC-DDM en même temps que l'applicabilité à l'ingénierie des roches. Die Felsmasseneigenschaften wie Verformbarkeit und Durchlässigkeit sind hochgradig abhängig von dem Vorhandensein von Rissen. Das Verhältnis der Riss-Öffnungsabhängigkeit (RCOD) wurde als neuer Index der Verformbargkeit von infinit zerklüfteter Felsmasse vorgeschlagen. Der RCOD wird als Verhältnis der Gesamtmenge der Rissöffnungen und der Gesamtverformung der zerklüfteten Felsmasse definiert. Die theoretische Beziehung zwischen RCOD und der effektiven Verformbarkeit von zerklüfteter Felsmasse wird diskutiert und durch zweidimensionale numerische Analyse mit SC-DDM bestätigt, zusammen mit der Anwendbarkeit auf Bergbautechnik.

Jan 1, 2003

By W. Carter, P. Chaubal, K. Spaleck, M. Schoeman, J. Bobek, W. Seegers

Keywords: Pyrometallurgy, steel, hearth, blast furnace The Mittal Steel Company operates about 36 blast furnaces on four continents. Furnaces range from 1100 m3 to 4800 m3 inner volume. The focus of the group is to push for increasing productivity and increasing campaign life. This has been especially challenging, as many of these furnaces were not equipped for long campaigns during their prior rebuilds. Monitoring and operating practices have to be modified to match the new philosophy. Mid-campaign hearth repair strategies and hearth design philosophies have had to be reconsidered. The paper describes experiences with the current hearth designs and measures taken for hearth life extension. Additionally, the philosophy of recent hearth re-designs is discussed.

Jan 1, 2006

By N. Reddy

The influence of local geology and rock mass characteristics on deformations during a rockburst caused by a controlled blast was studied. This was done by means of visual examination, mapping and photography both before and after the blast. We found that the ejected material was bounded mostly by fractures associated with the bow-wave fracturing and bedding surfaces and that existed prior to the blast. Most of the damage was caused by shake-out. This information is important input for the design of rockburst resistant support systems under conditions of moderate stress.

Jan 1, 2001

By M. Castelli, C. Scavia, S. Marello, A. Allodi

ABSTRACT – This paper investigates the possibility of interpreting the shear band evolution in hard soils and soft rocks as the result of shear propagation from pre-existing natural defects. Thesis done through the application of the principles of Fracture Mechanics, a Slip-Weakening Model(SWM) being used to simulate the non-linear zone at the tips of the discontinuity. Experimental observations have been carried out on prismatic samples of Beaucaire marl through biaxial compression tests in plane strain conditions. A numerical simulation confirms the validity of the proposed approach. RÉSUMÉ – Cet article présente la possibilité d’interpréter l’évolution des bandes de cisaillement dans les roches tendres et les sols raides comme le résultat de la propagation pour cisaillement à partir d’un défaut préexistant. Le Slip-Weakening Model (SWM) a été employé pour modéliser la zone non linéaire a l’extrémité d’une discontinuité. Nous présentons des observations expérimentaux obtenues à travers des essais de compression en déformation plane sur des échantillons prismatiques de marne. La simulation numérique d’un essai confirme la validité de la méthode proposée. KURZFASSUNG – Die vorliegende Arbeit versucht die Ausbreitung von Scherzonen in(bindigen) Böden und im Lockergestein anhand der Entwicklung von Scherrissen ausgehend vonexistierenden Schwachstellen zu erklären. Die Umsetzung erfolgte mit Hilfe der Bruchmechanik,für die Modellierung der nichtlinearen Zone an den Rissenden wurde ein Slip-Weakening-Modell(SWM) eingesetzt. Es wurden zweiaxiale Druckversuche an prismatischen Probekörpern vonBeaucaire Mergel unter der Bedingung eines ebenen Verzerrungszustandes durchgeführt. Dienumerische Untersuchungen bestätigten die Annahmen der untersuchten Theorie.

Jan 1, 2003

By O. Acaroglu

Selection of the most suitable roadheaders (boom type tunnelling machines) for the galleries/tunnels to be excavated in certain rock and under known project conditions is important for avoiding problems during application. This research utilized a multiple attribute decision-making method and studied how this will be applied for the selection of boom-type excavation machines. The Cayirhan Coal Basin was used for selecting roadheaders using the analytical hierarchy process, which is one of the multiple attribute decision-making methods. To conclude, this study reveals that decision-making methods can be used in the process of selecting roadheaders for the excavation of galleries. Keywords: roadheaders, multiple attribute decision-making, analytical hierarchy process.

Jan 1, 2006

By D. McCarthy

Contract is a PC-based software program designed to satisfy the main features that have been identified to be lacking from cost estimation systems currently in place in the Australian coal industry. Contract was developed in conjunction with an Australian contracting company to refine the existing core structure used by the company for project evaluation. The key feature of Contract is the availability of analysis functions to explore multiple options within a contract project by altering identified variables. The ability to update project files has been incorporated into Contract to ensure that it is user-friendly and relatively simple to use. Lists of mining equipment and consumables are stored in MS ACCESS database files, along with the supplier details for each item. Each time a project is initiated there is a dynamic link to the database files and the most recent current information is retrieved and linked with the project. Contract provides an option to calculate the changes in metre unit cost as a function of the average development cost. Keywords: Contracting, cost estimation, sensitivity analysis.

Jan 1, 2003

By N. D. L. Burger

Underwind and overwind protection system concepts for mine hoist shafts were developed in conjunction with and for the Safety in Mines Research Advisory Committee (SIMRAC). End-of-wind operation of mine hoists is the most hazardous aspect of mine hoisting, carrying the highest risk of loss of life, injuries to workers and loss of production. Systems operating mechanically and with local actuation were developed. This was done in order to remove the increased risk associated with dependency on remote or external energy and information supply associated with most existing protection systems. The proposed underwind protection system concept absorbs the energy of motion of a conveyance overrunning the design lower limit of travel by drawing a metal strip through a set of rollers. This action causes dynamic cyclic plastic bending of the strip material that converts the kinetic and potential energy of the conveyance into strain energy of the metal. In the concept design a pair of steel wire rope slings attached to the strips catch the overrunning conveyance and transfer the retardation force. The proposed overwind protection system concept absorbs the energy of motion of a conveyance overrunning the design upper limit of travel by early detaching of the conveyance from the hoist rope. This detaching is carried out via an additional detaching hook activation mechanism fitted at a sufficient height below the spectacle plate to allow the conveyance to retard to standstill under gravity before it would crash into the spectacle plate. The conveyance so brought to rest is prevented from falling by means of jack catches on the conveyance interacting with a rack (toothed profile) fitted on the guide rails in the retardation zone. Scale models (1:10 scale) of both protection systems were designed to conform to established retardation standards. The retardation standards were limited by the requirement of passenger safety in retarding cages. The models were then built and tested in a1:10 scale shaft model. Retardation performance close to the required levels was achieved. The retardation distance required should allow such systems to be retrofitted in most existing shafts. Given the simplicity and robustness of the designs, further development was recommended because of their enhanced self-sufficiency and reduced risk of malfunction. Keywords: underwind, overwind, deceleration, mineshafts, hoisting.

Jan 1, 2004

By TvS. von Moltke

Steel is a highly versatile material due to its low cost and good mechanical properties, but typically needs some or other form of corrosion protection due to its tendency to corrode when exposed to atmospheric conditions. In the case of organic coatings, the corrosion protection and functionality of the final product is critically dependent on the adhesion of the coating to the surface of the steel. In this work the effect of contaminants and the nature of the surface layers present on industrial steel products are investigated by means of paint adhesion tests, Auger electron spectroscopy (AES), and X-ray Photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). It was found that the presence of sodium species on the surface is very detrimental to paint adhesion under wet conditions, while satisfactory adhesion may be obtained even in the presence of silicon and carbon residues. It was also found that the nature of the Fe-O layer, formed under wet conditions is labile and different from that formed in dry air, and that subtle changes in process conditions, such as changing the oxygen content of the quench water, may change the adhesion of paint to the surface of the steel. Lewis acid-base interactions are discussed as a mechanism that may determine the bonding between the steel and polymer coating.

Jan 1, 2003

By N. Singh

Merensky Reef is mined extensively within the Bushveld Complex. In previously mined-out areas on the Merensky Reef horizon there are pillars, potholes and remnants that have not been mined. These unmined blocks of ground on the Merensky Reef horizon can influence the mining of the underlying UG2 Reef. The extent of the influence will depend on the size of unmined ground and the middling between the two reef horizons. This paper quantifies the influence of partially extracted Merensky Reef on mining of the UG2 Reef, and aims to provide recommendations for mining strategies, as well as regional and local support to achieve efficient and safe extraction of the UG2 Reef, for various middlings beneath the Merensky Reef horizon. In some cases it was found that relatively shallow UG2 Reef mining could encounter conditions similar to those experienced in deep and ultra-deep mining environments.

Jan 1, 2005

What is a nugget effect? In the early development of geostatistics, the term ?nugget effect? was coined for the apparent discontinuity at the beginning of many semivariogram graphs. This name was chosen to reflect the large differences found between neighbouring samples in ?nuggety? mineralizations such as Wits gold reefs. Geostatistical theory assumes that the difference between a sampled value and a potential repeat sample at the same location is actually zero. Included in this ?nugget effect? would be true variation between contiguous samples due to the nature of the mineralization, micro-fracturing, nugget or crystal size, and so on. Also included in the nugget effect would be any ?random? sampling variation which might occur due to the method in which the sample was taken, the adequacy of the sample size, the assaying process, etc. Arguments were put forward that ?sampling errors? actually exist at zero distance. Some geostatistical schools actually maintain that the ?nugget effect? is all sampling error. This would imply that ?perfect? sampling would eliminate the nugget effect entirely. There is now a dichotomy both in the geostatistical world and in the software packages provided for geostatistical analyses. It may seem academic to argue over whether the semivariogram model should take a value of zero, a value equal to the nugget effect, or a partial value at distance zero. However, the decision can have a profound effect on both the estimated resource and in our confidence on that resource. Whereas most geostatistical texts define the semivariogram model as taking the value of zero at zero distance, others imply that the full nugget effect should be used at zero distance. For example: ?The nugget effect refers to the nonzero intercept of the variogram and is an overall estimate of error caused by measurement inaccuracy and environmental variability occurring at fine enough scales to be unresolved by the sampling interval3 ?Christensen4 has shown that the ?nugget effect?, or non-zero variance at the origin of the sernivariogram, can be reproduced by a measurement error model ?The nugget effect is considered random noise and may represent short-scale variability, measurement error, sample rate, etc.5. In many training texts and Web courses, the definition of the semivariogram is ambiguous as the formulae for semivariogram models is not actually specified at zero distance6,7,8.

Jan 1, 2010

By S. Escoffier, A. Giraud, K. Su, F. Homand, N. Hoteit

Abstract For the feasibility study of an underground waste disposal the characterization of the coupled behaviour of the host rock is required: Because of the very low permeability of these formations few experimental data are generally available. In this framework the uses of the sensitivity studies could orient the experimental efforts by highlighting the key parameters of the formation. This paper gives a first approach of the sensitivity studies performed with probabilistic methods in the geomechanical field. A one dimensional model which characterizes the thermohydromechanical response of an argillaceous rock to the excavation of a waste canister site and its setting up, is considered. Zusammenfassun Die Machbarkeitsstudie eines tiefliegenden Endlagers für radioaktive Abfälle beinhaltet die Untersuchung des gekoppelten Verhaltens des im Lagerbereich anstehenden Gesteins. Aufgrund der sehr geringen Wasserdurchlässigkeit dieser Formationen liegen häufig nur wenige experimentelle Angaben vor. Die Verwendung von Sensibilitätsstudien kann in diesem Zusammenhang als Hilfsmittel zur Entscheidungsfindung dienen. Dabei sollen die maßgeblichen Eigenschaften der Formation festgestellt werden, anhand derer der Umfang der experimentellen Erkundung festgelegt werden kann. Dieser Artikel stellt einen ersten Ansatz zur Durchführung von Sensibilitätsstudien mittels einer mechanisch-probablistischen Kopplung im Bereich der Geomechanik sowie die Vorteile gegenüber Parameterstudien vor. Zur Abbildung des thermohydromechanischen Stoffverhaltens von tonigem Fels während der Schachterstellung und der Einlagerung der Abfälle wird ein eindimensionales Model verwendet. Résumé L'étude de faisabilité d'un centre de stockage de déchets radioactifs en profondeur passe par la caractérisation du comportement couplé de la roche hôte. Du fait de la très faible perméabilité de ces formations, souvent peu de données expérimentales sont disponibles. Dans ce cadre l'utilisation d'études de sensibilité permettrait d'orienter les efforts expérimentaux en faisant ressortir les caractéristiques primordiales de la formation. Cet article présente une première approche de la réalisation d'études de sensibilités à l'aide de couplages mécano-fiabilistes dans le domaine de la géomécanique. Un model unidimensionnel caractérisant la réponse thermohydromécanique d'une roche argileuse au creusement d'un puit de stockage et à la mise en place de conteneurs de déchets est considéré.

Jan 1, 2003