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By M. S. Klima

Proper analysis of washability data can lead to the development of a maximum yield coal preparation plant flow sheet. Simulations, as simple as spreadsheet mass and water balancing, are important in examining yield maximization and middlings liberation. Key to such attribute tracking flow sheet simulations is the distribution model, expressing the probability of a species reporting to the product stream. There are many such models in the literature. This paper examines a functional form that can represent or fit most of the proposed distribution functions.

Jan 1, 1997

By Edward Burris, Terry Gorsuch, Joseph M. Hans

INTRODUCTION In any large earth-moving operation, good planning and management are necessary to complete the operational tasks promptly and successfully. When an earth moving operation is complicated by radioactive contaminants, normal earth moving techniques and procedures must be modified. Any planning and management, therefore, must include the radiological aspects of the operation. It was found that the radiological aspects dominated most of the planning and management activities and were extended to all facets of the decontamination work at the former Shiprock uranium millsite. These planning aspects are discussed and their use to develop a work plan is described. The management aspects are discussed and their use to establish a management structure are also presented. PLANNING Some method of procedure, formulated beforehand, was necessary to govern the decontamination work at the former Shiprock uranium millsite. This procedure was expressed in the form of a work plan which served several listed purposes. 1. It defined the work to be done and the sequence it would follow. 2. It was used as a yardstick to measure progress. 3. It was used to assign organizational responsibilities. Several factors were considered to aid in the development of the plan. These factors are discussed below: Goals It was established that radiation exposure was occurring to persons working at the millsite, and in an around the community of Shiprock, from airborne radioactive mill wastes and radon-222 exhaling from the tailings piles. The goal set for the decontamination work was to reduce on-site exposures to levels acceptable for the millsite occupants. The attainment of this goal would also have a substantial impact in reducing off-site exposures. The objectives necessary to achieve the goal were consolidation and containment of the wastes. The former objective implies decontamination of the millsite and environs, and the later implies stabilization of the wastes. In practice, a total and complete decontamination of the millsite and contaminated environs would be very difficult and costly. The costs for decontaminating them could be high enough that an alternative method might be more cost-effective for reducing human exposures (i.e, move the affected people away from the source). The interim guide "Radiological Criteria for the Decontamination of Inactive Uranium Millsites" was used for the decontamination criteria (EPA 74). Briefly, the criteria state that off-pile decontamination should be effective enough to reduce the net above ground exposure rate to less than 10 [u]R/hr for unrestricted use of the affected area. When decontamination cannot readily be achieved, the exposure rate levels could be relaxed to 40 [u]R/hr; however, the affected area has to be restricted. The second objective, waste containment, means isolating the wastes from the biosphere. Since no method of containment was available at the beginning of the millsite decontamination effort, temporary containment (interim stabilzation) became the objective. The tailings pile and decontamination wastes would be covered with clean fill. The interim stabilization should last from 5 to 10 years until the final disposition of the wastes will occur. The goal, therefore, would be achieved by decontaminating the off-pile areas to less than 10 uR/hr where practical. The decontamination wastes would be used to plate the surface of the tailings pile and would be covered with clean fill. Radiological Survey The radiologial survey is the key factor for planning a decontamination activity. The survey should delineate the spread and depth of the contaminants relative to the decontamination criteria. Surface wastes, in general, can be evaluated for spread and depth with reasonable radiation survey equipment. Subsurface wastes on the other hand can be missed entirely, as happened during the radiation survey at the Shiprock site, although numerous exploration holes were bored and dug. The survey results can be used to define areas that may not be amenable to decontamination because of complications or safety reasons. For example, no decontamination of the bluff base was to be attempted because of the possibility the bluff might collapse on the personnel and equipment. Contaminated bottoms of decant ponds on the flood plain were not removed because they would be slurried by ground water. Slurry removal was deemed inefficient because the contaminants would be scattered and no equipment was available for its transport. In summary, the radiological survey defines the boundaries of the decontamination work and provides

Jan 1, 1981

By Gabino Preciado, Louis Sandbak

Corrosion has long been identified as a potential risk to the long-term ground support stability due to degradation of internal ground support elements such as rock bolts but also to surface support from mesh, straps, bolt plates, and ancillary support of utilities such as hangers. The emphasis is to understand the corrosion mechanisms on the primary ground support elements and any supplemental steel or arch sets. The water and chemical processes from oxidation(rust), stress corrosion cracking, and even the electrical charge created during these reactions contribute to the corrosion of the steel support elements. The main goals are to mitigate the effects of corrosion and to be able to predict those areas of high water or high sulphide for potential rehab maps. It is also essential to identify and classify the visible corrosion as part of damage mapping and provide bolt testing to those areas of suspected internal damage from corrosion. This is important to get an estimate of the support longevity or expected life before rehab to minimize the overall cost of the operation.

Feb 1, 2024

By A. M. Marabini, G. Belardi, V. Alesse, E. Spaziani

The objective of this investigation was to verify the effectiveness of commercial and synthetic depressing agents in a complex oxidized zinc mineral flotation flowsheet using sodium sulfides and amine. The flotation tests were run on a finely-disseminated calamine ore grading 16.96% Zn and containing smithsonite, hemimorphite, cerussite, calcite, quartz and iron oxide, present essentially in colloidal form. The reagents used in the testing can be grouped into four classes: guar, starch, celluloses and acrylic polymers having various degrees of substitution and molecular weights. The depressants exhibiting the greatest selectivity towards the gangue (considered as a whole) are tripolyphosphate, polycarboxylic acids, methylcarboxylate guars and ethyl hydroxylic starch. In the rougher stage, the Zn recovery ranged from 70% to 80%, and the Zn grade ranged from 27% to 29%. In the Zn-Fe2O3 separation, the compounds ensuring the most efficient separation are the tripolyphosphate and the polycarboxylic acids. In the Zn-SiO2 separation, the compounds that exhibit the best separation efficiency are tripolyphosphate and guar of methylcarboxylic sodium salt. In the case of the Zn-Ca separation, methyl-carboxylic guar exerts the best depressing effect and does not adversely affect the Zn recovery. The separation provided by ethyl hydroxylic guar is also good, although not as good as the preceding reagent. Regarding the Zn-Al separation, the tripolyphosphate, the celluloses and the carboxylate guars are the best depressants. A hypothesis is advanced to interpret the depressing action of the most effective reagents.

Jan 1, 1995

By Ken A. Pfaff, Ray Daigh

This paper will discuss state-of-the-art applications of GPS automation in mobile conveying systems. Robotic mobile conveying systems increase profitability, optimize stacking and reclaiming operations, and control complex interfaces more accurately than other systems. We will also discuss the application process in machine-to-machine coordination, selection of the appropriate GPS system, and Ethernet considerations. As the leading supplier of GPS-controlled mobile conveying systems, we'll draw on our experience at Morenci, Radomiro Tomic, Zaldivar, El Abra (Figure 1), and El Tesoro mines in the US and South America to demonstrate system reliability and the lessons we've learned through analysis of these projects.

Jan 1, 2002

By X. K. Jiang

Upgrading molybdenite ore can be technically difficult and expensive if talc is a major impurity in the ore. The layered structure of molybdenite and talc decreases the surface specificity of floatation and suppression agents, thereby making molybdenite ore beneficiation inefficient if under some wet processing methods. However, oxidic talc surfaces may be distinct from the sulfidic or oxysulfidic molybdenite surfaces, such distinction related to electron work functions and/or densities of electron donors/acceptors sites. If such differences are present, the upgrading of finely sized molybdenite ore by dry triboelectrostatic methods may hold advantages over traditional wet methods.

Jan 1, 1999

By C. J. Hall

An investigation of multi-shaft airflow problems by the author in 1976 (1) was presented in the hope of arousing considerable written comment, but in fact-. only one contribution (2) was forthcoming. The investigation in this paper is taken several stages fur¬ther, because the matter is of major importance in many American hard rock mines with complex networks extending over thousands of meters vertically. The examples used have all been generated thermodynamical¬ly and checked by motive column (denisty) calculations. Dry air has been used to reduce the amount of time spent on the rather complex calculations, but it has been shown (3) that the principals developed apply equally well to air/vapor/water mixtures. Initially the subject is investigated using both thermodynamic and motive column analyses. The latter part of the paper concentrates on a motive column presentation. Both methods are, of course, equally valid and give identical answers to any situation when correctly applied, as is shown in the worked examples.

Jan 1, 1980

By Michael H. Leon, John A. Organiscak

Controlling worker dust exposure on longwall mining systems is difficult because the working face area serves as an immediate return during the mining cycle and the amount of airborne dust generated is directly related to production. Since improvements in longwall mining technology have significantly boosted production levels, additional technology is needed to control the airborne respirable dust generated at present and future production levels. One concept to reduce longwall worker's dust exposure is to maintain two splits of air at the face -- a clean intake split in the workers walkway, and a return (dusty) split over the face conveyor. The U. S. Bureau of Mines has recently investigated a concept to overcome the visibility handicap of face partitions by utilizing a permeable polyester mesh. The mesh material was anticipated to provide adequate air-splitting capabilities as long as the pressure differential between the face and worker walkway was minimal. Initial testing of this concept at the Bureau's Lake Lynn Laboratory showed that notable reductions could be achieved with a 1/8 in (3.18 mm) and 1/16 in (1.59 mm) mesh opening size. Dust reductions at 100 ft (30.5 m) and 200 ft (61.0 m) downstream of source were 58 and 36 pct, respectively, for the 1/8 in mesh and 79 and 55 pct, respectively for the 1/16 in mesh. Longwall application of the 1/8 in mesh showed similar results to the Lake Lynn Laboratory tests. A flame retardant mesh was used underground with portable lighting mounted on the shearing machine for face side lighting.

Jan 1, 1993

By Clinton Strachan, Rob Dorey

10.1 INTRODUCTION This chapter presents considerations which should be applied to heap leach pad site selection, site evaluation, and design, relative to the geotechnics of the site and ore. 10.1.1 General Guidelines are presented covering the topics encountered in design and construction of heap leach faci1ities. Because geotechnical characteristics vary from site to site, not all geotechnical topics associated with a specific heap leach facility are presented, and there may be exceptions to some of these guidelines. The general features of a heap leach facility (from Chapter 1) to be discussed in this chapter are: • Leach pad (including leach pad foundation and liner); • Heap; • Solution storage faci1ities (for pregnant and barren process solutions) ; and • Solution collection facilities (which collect and convey solutions in the heap and convey them to solution storage facilities). These general features are illustrated in Figure 10.1. Liners for these facilities are discussed in Chapter 11. Solution application systems and the sizing aspects of solution storage facilities are discussed in Chapters 6, 7, and 12. The general features listed above are constructed with and overlie naturally occurring materials (such as ore, borrow soils, and subsurface soils and rock). These natural materials are relied upon to perform in an acceptable manner as a component of the leach facility (such as the liner, drain material, and foundation).

Jan 1, 1988

By Ted Klemetti

Roof deterioration in weak moisture-sensitive rock leads to roof falls in coal mines. An observation site was set up in intake air at an underground coal mine in central Ohio to evaluate the time-dependent deterioration of moisture-sensitive roof rock. By periodically collecting and weighing the rock falling from the roof, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) was able to quantify the deterioration of the moisture-sensitive shale roof. The measurements showed that more roof rock is falling in the dry winter months. Movements in an intersection were monitored in order to determine if deformation correlated with seasonal changes in temperature and humidity. The rate of intersection roof-to-floor convergence was found to be cyclical and related to seasonal changes, with more convergence during the months of April through September. At the study site intersection, the roof beam did not show deflection indicating movement most likely due to mine floor deformation. The bolt load also increased in the warmer months before shedding load, possibly due to rock failure. Temperature and relative humidity sensors, placed in holes in the roof show that mine air does not mix with the air in the holes. Consistent saturation levels of relative humidity were measured in the holes and it appears that high levels of moisture may have migrated into the bolt holes from roof shales. A roof sealant applied to a portion of the test roof appears to be preserving the roof and reducing the amount of rock fall into the entry, while the screened area virtually eliminated rock falling from the roof.

Jan 1, 2009

By Brian E. Davies, Bobby G. Wixson

INTRODUCTION The mining, extraction and refining of metals into useful materials is an honorable profession with an ancient and productive history. Civilizations have long depended upon metals for their implements, structures and machinery necessary for survival, growth, and development. Today, as in the future, metals and minerals are essential to the progress of mankind as we approach the 21st century with technologies and concepts that will require new concepts and production from the metal mining and processing industries. Today is the tomorrow we talked about yesterday and the implementation of new ideas is essential if we are to achieve "Frontier Technology in Mineral Processing". Unfortunately, the state-of-the-art mining, processing, smelting and refining methods historically employed were less than desirable environmentally, which has caused todays public to view the metal mining and processing industry with concern. Presently the ancient rock and chat tips connected with old Roman lead-zinc mines which were worked in Wales are causing stream contamination problems that must be corrected at considerable expense to the local governmental agencies (Firth, J.N.M., et al., 1981). However, improved progress has been made and the environmental control and clean-up procedures utilized by modern lead-zinc operations in the "Viburnum Trend" or "New Lead Belt" of South East Missouri may serve as a model to illustrate how alternative technologies, environmental concerns and cooperative efforts contribute to efficient mineral production within the confines of a U.S. National Forest region without significant environmental impacts. This area received international attention when it was opened within the boundaries of the Clark National Forest in the mid 1960's. By 1970 it ranked first in the world by producing 432,576 short tons of lead ore and has since continued in this position producing 451,153 short tons of lead ore in 1983 representing 91% of the total United States lead production (U.S. Bureau of idines, 1983). This production comes from a mining area approximately 40 miles long by 10 miles wide extending in a north-south direction. Geologically the lead is disseminated throughout the Cambrain age Bonneterre Formation, mostly a dolomite, at depths ranging from 700 to 1200 ft. (213.4 to 365.8 m). Galena (lead) is the principal ore mined with lesser quantities of sphalerite (zinc), chaleopyrite (copper) and silver being recovered as economic co-products. This new mining development in one of Missouri is most scenic areas could have led to a classic confrontation between industries and environmentalists. Instead, through the cooperation of industries, governmental agencies and university researchers, the Ozark environment has been protected, and may serve as a model for future coexistence of the mineral industry with the environment. Cooperative Program Development As early as 1965 five new mines and two lead smelters were being prepared for production and environmental concern was an essential part of that planning. All the mining companies became acquainted with representatives of the various federal and state agencies and scientists from the University of Missouri-Rolla (UMR). During the next six years, St. Joe Minerals Corporation, American Metal Climax, Inc., Cominco American Incorporated, Ozark Lead Company (Kennecott) and American Smelting and Refining Company participated in cooperative research efforts. The companies also participated in information exchange meetings, the development of improved analytical methods and the utilization of research findings in the modification or construction of pollution-abatement facilities. Early on research was carried out to determine background values and to establish natural baselines of trace metals in the surrounding environment. The unusual topography and drainage pattern of the mining area were helpful since it was possible to establish control sites and test sites below individual mine-mill operations to study waste-water effects on the receiving streams. The location of the ‘New Lead Belt', mines, mills,

Jan 1, 1985

By Fathi Habashi

LEACHING IS the process of extracting a soluble constituent from a solid by means of a solvent. In extractive metallurgy it is the process of dissolving a certain mineral (or minerals) from an ore or a concentrate, or dissolving certain constituents from metallurgical products such as calcines, mattes, scrap alloys, anodic slimes, etc. In this respect, either one of two purposes can be achieved: 1) Opening of ores, concentrates, or metallurgical products to recover the metal values. 2) Leaching easily soluble constituents (usually gangue minerals) in an ore or a concentrate in order to have it in a more concentrated form, e.g., the

Jan 1, 1970

By S. E. Phillipson

Underground mine mapping is a critical component of understanding the controls on ground instability. Many relatively localized examples of ground failure are associated with geologic features, such as faults, joints, compaction zones, or sedimentological transition zones. In contrast, long-running, directional roof falls are associated with regionally directed horizontal stress fields, which are induced by tectonic plate interactions in the earth?s crust. When stress-related features are distinguished from geological features, underground mapping can be an effective method for inferring the direction of horizontal stress at individual mines. Comparisons with data compiled in the World Stress Map confirm that underground mapping can be a valid method for determining the orientation of maximum principal horizontal stress at a variety of scales, ranging from individual mines to an entire mining district or coal basin. Comparisons are presented between the maximum horizontal stress directions inferred by MSHA?s Roof Control Division through underground mapping and the azimuths of maximum horizontal stress in the World Stress Map database for North America?s Pennsylvanian-aged Appalachian, Illinois, Black Warrior, and Arkoma Basin coal fields. The comparison indicates that azimuths are similar for both data sets, even where variations in the direction of horizontal stress are present. It is interpreted that inconsistencies in direction are attributable to near-surface affects such as deeply incised stream valleys, or to fault zones that represent heterogeneities in the crust.

Jan 1, 2009

By F. Mauviel, J. Bernard, G. Herrouin, J. P. Lenoble, C. Charles, B. Taine

Manganese nodule projects were quite fashionable during the 1970s. At the beginning of the 1980s, low metal prices led to an almost complete reduction of such activities; however, the Law of the Sea incited the countries that signed it to build a strategy for this ocean resource. Gemonod was created in France in 1984 with a four-year mission. This paper presents the results of its program devoted to the technical and economic studies of nodule exploitation. A commercial mining system is presented. The nodules would be collected by a self-propelled miner and lifted hydraulically through a rigid pipestring. A complete optimized scenario has been built taking into account offshore mining, ore transfer at sea, transportation and processing to analyze the profitability of the project. Considering an average conservative basis for metal prices, after a deep analysis of the market, the return rate of investment of the project appears fairly interesting. These results are new and are explained in comparison with previous foreign studies. These results must not hide the innovative nature of the project nor the associated risks. This is why a mining pilot is required and has been specified by Gemonod.

Jan 1, 1991

By M. Li, W. R. Reed, J. P. Rider, J. D. Potts

"The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) has recently developed a series of validated models utilizing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to study the effects of air-blocking shelves on airflows and respirable dust distribution associated with medium-sized surface blasthole drill shrouds as part of a dry dust collector system. Using validated CFD models, three different air-blocking shelves were included in this study: a 15.2-cm (6-in.) wide shelf; a 7.6-cm (3-in.) wide shelf; and a 7.6-cm (3-in.) wide shelf at four different shelf heights. In addition, the dust-collector-to-bailing airflow ratios of 1.75:1, 1.5:1, 1.25:1, and 1:1 were evaluated for the 15.2-cm (6-in.) wide air-blocking shelf. This paper describes the methodology used to develop the CFD models. The effects of air-blocking shelves and dust-collector-to-bailing airflow ratios were identified by the study, and problem regions were revealed under certain conditions. The simulation results could be used for future development of dust control methods, particularly to address respirable silica dust, for a surface mine blasthole drill shroud.INTRODUCTION Surface blasthole drilling can generate considerable amounts of respirable silica dust. These high dust concentrations can be exacerbated by the high silica content as drilling cuts through silica-bearing materials such as sandstone and shale, causing overexposures for miners to respirable silica dust. These overexposures can lead to silicosis, an occupational lung disease that has no cure and is often fatal. A review of the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) respirable silica dust sample database from 2010 to 2016 for metal/nonmetal mining shows the following overexposure rates for occupations related to blasthole drilling: • 14.1% of rotary air drillers were overexposed to respirable silica dust (22 out of 156 samples) • 5.8% of rotary drillers were overexposed to respirable silica dust (9 out of 155 samples) • 7.3% of drill helpers were overexposed to respirable silica dust (3 out of 41 samples) • 7.5% of blaster/shotfirer were overexposed to respirable silica dust (3 out of 40 samples) Of significant interest is an x-ray surveillance study recently completed under the NIOSH Enhanced Coal Workers’ Health Surveillance Program (ECWHSP). This program offered free chest radiographs to surface coal miners in 16 states. Pneumoconiosis was found among 2.0% of the 2,328 screened miners with at least 1 year of mining tenure. Twelve miners had radiographic changes consistent with progressive massive fibrosis, and 9 of these 12 miners reported no underground mining tenure. All but 1 of the 9 miners worked at occupations that were in the vicinity of blasthole drilling, either as a driller, blaster, or blast crew member [1]."

Jan 1, 2018

By M. Li, W. R. Reed, J. P. Rider, J. D. Potts

The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) has recently developed a series of validated models utilizing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to study the effects of air-blocking shelves on airflows and respirable dust distribution associated with medium-sized surface blasthole drill shrouds as part of a dry dust collector system. Using validated CFD models, three different air-blocking shelves were included in this study: a 15.2-cm (6-in.) wide shelf; a 7.6-cm (3-in.) wide shelf; and a 7.6-cm (3-in.) wide shelf at four different shelf heights. In addition, the dust-collector-to-bailing airflow ratios of 1.75:1, 1.5:1, 1.25:1, and 1:1 were evaluated for the 15.2-cm (6-in.) wide air-blocking shelf. This paper describes the methodology used to develop the CFD models. The effects of air-blocking shelves and dust-collector-to-bailing airflow ratios were identified by the study, and problem regions were revealed under certain conditions. The simulation results could be used for future development of dust control methods, particularly to address respirable silica dust, for a surface mine blasthole drill shroud. INTRODUCTION Surface blasthole drilling can generate considerable amounts of respirable silica dust. These high dust concentrations can be exacerbated by the high silica content as drilling cuts through silica-bearing materials such as sandstone and shale, causing overexposures for miners to respirable silica dust. These overexposures can lead to silicosis, an occupational lung disease that has no cure and is often fatal. A review of the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) respirable silica dust sample database from 2010 to 2016 for metal/nonmetal mining shows the following overexposure rates for occupations related to blasthole drilling: • 14.1% of rotary air drillers were overexposed to respirable silica dust (22 out of 156 samples) • 5.8% of rotary drillers were overexposed to respirable silica dust (9 out of 155 samples) • 7.3% of drill helpers were overexposed to respirable silica dust (3 out of 41 samples) • 7.5% of blaster/shotfirer were overexposed to respirable silica dust (3 out of 40 samples) Of significant interest is an x-ray surveillance study recently completed under the NIOSH Enhanced Coal Workers’ Health Surveillance Program (ECWHSP). This program offered free chest radiographs to surface coal miners in 16 states. Pneumoconiosis was found among 2.0% of the 2,328 screened miners with at least 1 year of mining tenure. Twelve miners had radiographic changes consistent with progressive massive fibrosis, and 9 of these 12 miners reported no underground mining tenure. All but 1 of the 9 miners worked at occupations that were in the vicinity of blasthole drilling, either as a driller, blaster, or blast crew member [1].

Jan 1, 2019

By Werner Stahl, Karsten Keller

Vibration screens are commonly used not only in classifying bulk material but also in dewatering it. The lack of a comprehensive physical theory of dewatering often leads to difficulties in the design and operation of the vibration screens. Firstly, the dewatering of bulk material will be shown, based on a physical model. Because of the oscillatory motion of the liquid in the bulk, the inertial force of the accelerated liquid and the dripping of water out of the bulk or screen must be taken into special consideration. The physical model put forward shows the effect of the various operations parameters of dewatering screens. The comparison between dewatering theory and practice will be shown by measurements using coal, limestone, etc. Dewatering measurements, which have been conducted on a vibration screen, demonstrate that different vibration frequencies and rates of acceleration lead to different residual moistures. Finally, the possibilities of improving vibration dewatering will be described.

Jan 1, 1995

By Asa Weber

With continuing pressure from stockholders not only to maintain but to increase mineral revenues, producers have increased plant capacity. Depressed mineral prices have accentuated the trend toward higher production rates to maintain consistent cash flow, and these same trends have promoted the development of large-scale processing equipment. In addition to the need to handle increased throughput, larger flotation equipment can result in decreased capital-equipment and operating costs. The development of larger column and conventional flotation equipment relies, in part, on suitable scale-up procedures. To properly scale-up large flotation cells and columns, certain constraints and design parameters must be taken into consideration, including velocities in the vessel, residence time, solids suspension, and lip loading. This paper will review the design constraints and scale-up criteria for WEMCO® flotation cells. Scale-up criteria are augmented with computational-fluid- dynamics analyses and high-speed imaging techniques, as well as multiple regresesion analysis of in-plant operational data.

Jan 1, 1999

By Robin G. Adams

The market prices received by producers of internationally traded commodity metals have been, and continue to be remarkably volatile and unpredictable compared with most other traded goods and services. This volatility results in an erratic financial performance on the part of producing companies, disruptive and often inflationary cost changes for consumers, unreliable tax revenues and export earnings for host governments and severe social and economic pressures on local, sometimes remote, communities which are dependent on the activity in question. Generally speaking, price volatility appears to be associated with the inability of the metal producing side of the industry to regulate the volume of supply in a manner that is consistent with metal demand, which in turn reflects broad macroeconomic and industrial developments around the world. This statement does not purport to apply to all metals or to all instances of volatility of course. Price movements may occur as a result of pure speculation or even illegal manipulation of the commodity markets. Embargoes, boycotts and other politically induced supply changes may contribute. Threatened or actual strikes also cause artificial swings in sales volumes and prices. How- ever, most of these developments are of a short-term nature. Yet metals price cycles may last for several years, as demonstrated by the extended copper price trough from 1981 to 1986. This paper deals with price volatility which reflects long-term economic cycles and the adaptive processes that exist within the industry in response to such cycles. Special emphasis is placed on the role of forecasts and forecasters in these processes. It should be said at the outset that this reflects the personal experience of one forecaster working in private sector commercial consulting practices that are independent of producers, consumers and host governments. However, the experience does cover the entire period since 1973 and has involved working with a substantial majority of the major companies that supply high volume commodity metals. By way of background it should be stated that the post-1973 world economy has provided a challenging environment for forecasters. One cannot be precise about the forecasting record of either industry insiders or outside consultants, financial analysts and academic forecasters because comprehensive records have not been kept, or if they have the results are too embarrassing to be published. Institutions such as the World Bank have published forecasts of the prices of major commodities on a regular basis and these have, presumably, had some influence on financing decisions in the industry. This record along with our own experience and numerous discussions with metal producers, major consumers and host governments permits certain generalizations to be made. The most important of these is that during the early 1980s. from about 1980 through 1985/6, the forecasters system- atically and substantially over- estimated metal prices. While some fore- casters did correctly anticipate a recession in the early 1980s and some consequential decline in prices, the magnitude and duration of the decline was far greater than anyone foresaw. This systematic forecasting "failure" appears to have occurred independently of the forecasting methodology employed. Moreover, its extent cannot be explained by obvious factors such as incorrect macroeconomic assumptions. There appears to have been some kind of structural change in the world mining and metals industry over this period

Jan 1, 1989

By Frits Agterberg

Statistical exploration uses statistical methods to identify targets for more detailed investigation by estimating the odds of occurrence of mineral deposits. The study area which contains the possible targets may be as large as 1 000 000 km2 or as small as 100 km2. Results are presented in terms of a probability index for the existence of a deposit or, more precisely, in terms of expected dollar value for a unit area, or even in terms of number, size, and grade of deposits remaining to be discovered. Typically, selected geological, geophysical, or geochemical information is systematically quantified and statistically analyzed by using the computer in order to distinguish between geological environments on the basis of the probability that they contain undiscovered deposits of a specific type. All possible targets are compared with one another by using information on areas known to contain deposits. The information on the known areas is either a set of control data consisting of values for the same parameters as are quantified for the entire study area, or it embodies a specific model for the occurrence of a given deposit type. Examples of both procedures will be discussed in this chapter.

Jan 1, 1979