The Energy Equation-Oil

A forecast of energy demand in the non-commu- nist world to the year 1990 is presented with com- ments on the expected effectiveness of conservation efforts in achieving more efficient utilization of energy. A forecast of energy supply for the same period is presented showing the contribution of oil, gas, hydropower, coal, and nuclear fuels, with brief comments on the factors constraining the rate of growth of non-oil energy supplies. The role of `synthetic fuels', i.e. liquid or gaseous fuels produced from coal, oil shale, and tar sands, is reviewed with brief discussion of factors affecting the development of this industry. In somewhat greater details, the growth of demand for oil by geographic regions is analyzed. Particular attention is directed to the source of the oil supplies which will be required. The anticipated rate of discovery of new oil reserves is discussed with comments on lead times required in the development of new discoveries in hostile environments such as the Arctic and deep oceans. The continuing importance of oil supplied from countries which are members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is illustrated. Oil will continue to be the marginal ('balancing') source of world energy supply throughout the forecast period and although it now appears that oil supplies will be sufficient to balance the energy equation during the 1980s, little flexi- bility will exist to cope with unexpected growth in demand or slippage in supply. Prudent energy re- source management will require major efforts to stimulate conservation and also to stimulate the rapid development of conventional and new forms of energy supplies and changes in energy consump- tion patterns to utilize the new supplies. Because of the long lead times and the massive capital require- ments involved, governmental policies are needed soon which will stimulate conservation and which will encourage businesses to move rapidly to assure the energy supplies the world will require in the 1990s.