Mining Project Management: Think Second Order!

Few industries are more challenged by technical, political and market uncertainty than the mineral industry. Technical uncertainty in mining projects concerns the volume and quality of the resource, the processing and metallurgical parameters, the production efficiency, etc. Political uncertainty can take diverse forms and includes possibilities of change in the taxation system, risk of expropriation and risk of social instability or war. Market uncertainty depends on the market structure of the commodity; price and demand volatilities are the most common sources of market uncertainty. Intensive feasibility studies including these uncertainties and risks are required before investing up to billions of dollars in the development of a new mine. Current feasibility studies are often based on a single (or very few) mean geological scenario and simplified price profiles along the life of the project. Yet, strategic decisions, for example, the level of investment in exploration and metallurgical studies, adoption of a flexible, but more costly, mine design and risk-sharing strategies are made at an early stage. Over the last twenty years, Real Option theory has emerged as a unifying framework enabling strategic planning under uncertainty (technical, political and market). Geological and market variances (second order statistics) are pivotal for proper uncertainty quantification. The present study explores the possible benefits of combining modern geostatistical tools and financial techniques for project management. More precisely, the following questions are examined: Is geological uncertainty really an issue? Can we combine geological and price uncertainties in a unifying Real Option framework? A simple example aimed at illustrating the concepts involved is presented.