Analytical system of long- term forecasting of world prices for primary aluminium

The complex system has been developed for long-term assessment of world prices and sale volume of primary aluminium when using the analytical model of the market and market supply forecasts as well as economy development in the Western countries characterized by the industrial production indices as correct data of Western World aluminium consumption are absent, The important part of this system is the model developed for forecasting the degree of capacities utilization of smelters and refineries depending on the price level, The model contains a statistic part corresponding to the capacities distribution by the production cost, and a dynamic part determining the deviation from the static depending on the price variation dynamics, The developed complex system has been identified by the actual data of the world prices of smelter grade alumina and primary aluminium, conservation and reactivation of refineries and smelters in the Western countries within the period from 1992 to 2003. The system was used for primary aluminium and alumina price forecasts till 2020.